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Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

Devils Trap said:
www.nytimes.com

NHL’s 10 worst contracts, 2024 edition: Jonathan Huberdeau, Darnell Nurse and more

According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Top 10 Worst Contracts in the NHL - #2
Fresh off the hopper, the brand new Chandler Stephenson deal earns an immediate top-three debut on the worst contracts list. Not a great sign!

Some folks in the Pacific Northwest might bemoan that judging Stephenson’s new deal before he’s even played a game with Seattle is unfair. That argument usually holds more merit when a player goes to a new situation where he has an opportunity to thrive under differing circumstances. I don’t think that’s the case with Stephenson. He’s going from playing with Mark Stone every second Stone is healthy to playing with a lot of players who aren’t half as good as Stone.

While Stephenson’s value was worth $6 million just one year ago, the likelihood of bouncing back to that level without Stone by his side is probably low. To do so for the next seven years — all of which occur in his 30s — feels even lower.

As of right now, Stephenson is an average middle-six center — one who gives a lot of his offense back the other way. There are a lot of red flags in his game that came to the surface last season, all pointing to an onerous contract waiting to be handed out.

The Kraken did just that and I doubt we’ll have to wait very long to see that. Stephenson has a lot to prove to show this isn’t a Day 1 disaster. Showing he’s more than Stone’s linemate and someone who can drive play on his own accord would be a strong start.

To make things worse, Stephenson had a f***ing HORRIFIC year and was worse then anyone could have imagined this season


View attachment 1039029
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Dom’s model thinks Chandler was going to sign a 2.2M x 7 years and that’s where I stopped reading. That is a rare contract to be offered, let alone signed too. Off the top of the head, maybe Killorn’s deal with TBL comes to mind, but not many other contracts signed like that post lockout (??).

Also, he can’t control not having Mark Stone on his team - that’s the GM. My point is not that he’s worth 6.3M, but that we would have been a better team with him than with Curtis Lazar and Justin Dowling. Trickle down effect too, with Mercer having a decent player on his line.

Chandler at $6.3M is better than paying ROR ~5M this year and next on top of not having Nemec, Mercer, or 2026 1st (rumored deal).

Lastly, $6.3M isn’t great but in 2025, not terrible. Goes for that other guy making $8.8M too. Players will get paid.
 
I don't even particularly care what he is paid, he is just not a good player. I wouldn't take him for free at $1million/year

I don't want to hear the "he played on a bad team" BS. Plenty of bad teams have good players or at least even average players. Stephenson was one of the worst forwards in the NHL last year.

anyways, he isnt a Devil and won't ever be a Devil. Really should stop bringing him up here.
 
Zajacs Bowl Cut said:
I don't even particularly care what he is paid, he is just not a good player. I wouldn't take him for free at $1million/year

I don't want to hear the "he played on a bad team" BS. Plenty of bad teams have good players or at least even average players. Stephenson was one of the worst forwards in the NHL last year.

anyways, he isnt a Devil and won't ever be a Devil. Really should stop bringing him up here.
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Chanlder Stephenson 5 on 5 was a sub 46% Corsi and a sub 40% xGoals

Thats one of the worst players in the NHL period lmao 0 let alone making 6 million
 
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theoptimist said:
Dom’s model thinks Chandler was going to sign a 2.2M x 7 years and that’s where I stopped reading. That is a rare contract to be offered, let alone signed too. Off the top of the head, maybe Killorn’s deal with TBL comes to mind, but not many other contracts signed like that post lockout (??).

Also, he can’t control not having Mark Stone on his team - that’s the GM. My point is not that he’s worth 6.3M, but that we would have been a better team with him than with Curtis Lazar and Justin Dowling. Trickle down effect too, with Mercer having a decent player on his line.

Chandler at $6.3M is better than paying ROR ~5M this year and next on top of not having Nemec, Mercer, or 2026 1st (rumored deal).

Lastly, $6.3M isn’t great but in 2025, not terrible. Goes for that other guy making $8.8M too. Players will get paid.
Click to expand...
Also reading - it doesnt say he thinks Chandler was going to sign for 2.2 million, its what hes worth aka he sucks.
 
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The thing with Toronto imo, is they waited way too long. Their playoff issues wouldn't be look as bad if it was like year 3 or 4, but it's like what year 10? And I think it's because their management sucks (bad roster is result of bad management). I just hope the devils don't fall into the same trap of just waiting and waiting and waiting. The playoffs this year restored my faith in the core we have, but I still have no faith in Fitz.

Not really sure if you count '22-'23 as the year when we started the playoff grind, or '24-'25.
 
I still don't really even know what Mike Vick has to do with anything?

one was involved in dogfighting and went to prison for their crime(s) and one is involved in a gang rape/sexual assault investigation, in a trial still ongoing?
 
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theoptimist said:
He sucks and his model wants him for 7 more years?
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No. It’s saying on a 7 year basis he should provide an average of $2.2 million dollars of value per year.

The contracts and projected value are all based on how many years remain on a contract. The model isn’t picking the length, it’s matching the real contact length.

So the values are the difference between the years remaining times the actual contract cost minus the years remaining and projected per year value. The difference is the surplus or deficit value of the remaining contract years.
 
What are people going on about? Chandler Stephenson is a solid player that got predictably overpaid because he was a UFA CENTER. Then had to play higher up the lineup than he should in Seattle with mainly overmatched or trash wings. He's an ideal strong 3C on a great team and can play top 6 if needed.

Some if these takes are WILD. You think this guy SUCKS? You think he was worth $3 million or less??? WHAT?

Hate the player all you want or whatever, but the guy was coming off 3 seasons where he averaged 60 points, is a + faceoff guy (CENTER), can play PK, shoots 16% consistently, inconsistent in playoffs but still had 1 insane run on his resume, multiple cups, etc.

He is quite literally a type of versatile player the Devs need....at the right price of course (not SEA $$$$). No reasonable person that follows this league should have expected below $4.5 for him or any similar player (I could see $4 x 7 with full NMC maybe). Totally banana land stuff.

You can't get a competent, versatile top 9 C in this league for sub $4m via UFA....unless he's a few years away from collecting social security checks and his family needs to live at the shore. Which is why, yet again, ORG CENTER DEPTH IS SO IMPORTANT and the Devs have none.
 
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Yeah to me the Stephenson contract is a reflection of just how desperate teams are to add established NHL centers. You can't get them unless you develop them, or give an unestablished guy a chance. I'd try to find an unestablished guy to compete with Haula/Mercer for 3C, cause the cost for an established 3C is just gonna be exorbitant.
 
Chandler Stephenson sucks. Drags down all his linemates, does nothing well, and should be paying at least $2M of his salary to Mark Stone, the actually good player who made Stephenson look good.

There might be score effects in here, but the story that is told over the last 3 years with Vegas is very simple -

Stephenson xG with Stone: 52%
Stephenson xG without Stone: 44%
xG for Stone without Stephenson: 59%

Stephenson was a decent player once upon a time, he is not now.
 
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Poppy Whoa Sonnet said:
Yeah to me the Stephenson contract is a reflection of just how desperate teams are to add established NHL centers. You can't get them unless you develop them, or give an unestablished guy a chance. I'd try to find an unestablished guy to compete with Haula/Mercer for 3C, cause the cost for an established 3C is just gonna be exorbitant.
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Unestablished guy sounds like Cody Glass tbh
 
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Poppy Whoa Sonnet said:
Yeah to me the Stephenson contract is a reflection of just how desperate teams are to add established NHL centers. You can't get them unless you develop them, or give an unestablished guy a chance. I'd try to find an unestablished guy to compete with Haula/Mercer for 3C, cause the cost for an established 3C is just gonna be exorbitant.
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The cost of a 3C could be eaten by the rising cap, if played well enough. Unfortunately don’t think we can go outside a proven veteran for the spot

Issue is Luke’s looming contract. Should be around 8.5-9. That’s practically Dougie’s contract, if he leaves

Suppose you want Gritsyuk’s deal at 3LW; that saves us some. You save 1.8 from Tatar. If you can move off of Haula and save 1m with Glass, thatd help. Palat is staying and his spot can’t be replaced at a reasonable value anyway

Dillon being LTIR’d would also go a ways. Dependent on the diagnosis behind the scenes.

Edit. Likely move is to keep Haula and pray he’s healthy while getting a 2RW. I think helping Nico is more important but harder to accomplish
 
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theoptimist said:
Dom’s model thinks Chandler was going to sign a 2.2M x 7 years and that’s where I stopped reading. That is a rare contract to be offered, let alone signed too. Off the top of the head, maybe Killorn’s deal with TBL comes to mind, but not many other contracts signed like that post lockout (??).

Also, he can’t control not having Mark Stone on his team - that’s the GM. My point is not that he’s worth 6.3M, but that we would have been a better team with him than with Curtis Lazar and Justin Dowling. Trickle down effect too, with Mercer having a decent player on his line.

Chandler at $6.3M is better than paying ROR ~5M this year and next on top of not having Nemec, Mercer, or 2026 1st (rumored deal).

Lastly, $6.3M isn’t great but in 2025, not terrible. Goes for that other guy making $8.8M too. Players will get paid.
Click to expand...

That model is not predicting what Stephenson would potentially sign for, it’s predicting what he’ll be worth per year on 7 year deal before the 24-25 season started.

If you look at the chart, his 2.6m in 24-25 ended up being too generous:
IMG_4892.jpegIMG_4893.jpeg

theoptimist said:
He sucks and his model wants him for 7 more years?
Click to expand...

He signed for 7 years so it’s showing a prediction of his actual worth over that contract.

The model doesn’t “want” anything.
 
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Time Skip said:
The cost of a 3C could be eaten by the rising cap, if played well enough. Unfortunately don’t think we can go outside a proven veteran for the spot

Issue is Luke’s looming contract. Should be around 8.5-9. That’s practically Dougie’s contract, if he leaves

Suppose you want Gritsyuk’s deal at 3LW; that saves us some. You save 1.8 from Tatar. If you can move off of Haula and save 1m with Glass, thatd help. Palat is staying and his spot can’t be replaced at a reasonable value anyway

Dillon being LTIR’d would also go a ways. Dependent on the diagnosis behind the scenes.

Edit. Likely move is to keep Haula and pray he’s healthy while getting a 2RW. I think helping Nico is more important but harder to accomplish
Click to expand...
Grits should be in the top 6. Going with a young complimentary scoring forward is the perfect spot to save money since Jack-Bratt and Timo-Nico do the heavy lifting anyway (and it gives them the opportunity to shine and grow)
 
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dgibb10 said:
Grits should be in the top 6. Going with a young complimentary scoring forward is the perfect spot to save money since Jack-Bratt and Timo-Nico do the heavy lifting anyway (and it gives them the opportunity to shine and grow)
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Same difference, really; if we had a legit 3C we’d be running three deep lines.

Palat should be next to Jack unless you stack him with Nico and Meier for a possession-based line. That leaves one other spot. If Bratt plays LW its his, if he’s RW it pushes Noesen to the 4th line

Could get creative, such as Bratt at 3LW to carry a line or Noesen at 3LW on his offside. Gritsyuk at 3LW makes the most sense if you get a legitimate 3C.

Something like this would suffice;

Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Palat-Hughes-Bratt
Gritsyuk-3C-Noesen
Cotter

I too would like Meier on his offhand for the shot but, as currently constructed, it’s too much shifting.

Edit

In reality I think Mercer being replaced with a 3C of equivalent talent would be the play to open up a better roster construction

Something like this would be better I’d think;

Gritsyuk-Hischier-Meier
Palat-Hughes-Bratt
3LW-3C-Noesen
Cotter, maybe Glass maybe Haula

In this scenario, finding a 3LW would cost significantly less and be less prohibitive with increased options. Moving Haula or running a 3M 4C is tough, but idt it’s impossible.

I also don’t like the lack of RH shots but that can be fixed at a later date, when Palat is moved on from. The 3C, however, oughta be a RH shot
 
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Edmonton East said:
What are people going on about? Chandler Stephenson is a solid player that got predictably overpaid because he was a UFA CENTER. Then had to play higher up the lineup than he should in Seattle with mainly overmatched or trash wings. He's an ideal strong 3C on a great team and can play top 6 if needed.

Some if these takes are WILD. You think this guy SUCKS? You think he was worth $3 million or less??? WHAT?

Hate the player all you want or whatever, but the guy was coming off 3 seasons where he averaged 60 points, is a + faceoff guy (CENTER), can play PK, shoots 16% consistently, inconsistent in playoffs but still had 1 insane run on his resume, multiple cups, etc.

He is quite literally a type of versatile player the Devs need....at the right price of course (not SEA $$$$). No reasonable person that follows this league should have expected below $4.5 for him or any similar player (I could see $4 x 7 with full NMC maybe). Totally banana land stuff.

You can't get a competent, versatile top 9 C in this league for sub $4m via UFA....unless he's a few years away from collecting social security checks and his family needs to live at the shore. Which is why, yet again, ORG CENTER DEPTH IS SO IMPORTANT and the Devs have none.
Click to expand...

This keeps being discussed because one poster is dead set on arguing that not signing Chandler Stevenson was a huge error on Fitz’s part.

It’s nice that you think Stevenson would be hypothetically worth it if his salary was a couple million less a year.

That has nothing to do with reality though.

He wasn’t signing in NJ for 12.6-16.1 million less. Both Seattle and NJ were a non-playoff team with 81 points and NJ has a bigger tax hit.

Maybe some teams could have gotten him on a more team friendly deal but I don’t see why anyone thinks we would have.

And I don’t see him as an ideal 3C either, he’s really more of a scoring center, he’s below average defensively now.
 
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