Confirmed with Link: Devils acquire LHD Jonas Siegenthaler (WAS) for ARZ 3rd 2021

[StevenToddIves]

The Devils can still acquire a D and expose Subban if that's their MO - I doubt Subban would be claimed in expansion. That said, I think it is much harder to pull off this sort of move because the Capitals don't lose every player they don't protect, they only lose one. There's not much sense in trading a player and then losing another player at that position - the Capitals are in the position where they can afford to do that because they have so much depth, but I doubt very much that doing it again makes any sense.

The Wild are likely to protect 4-4 and not expose Dumba but instead expose Greenway.

Edit: double post for some weird reason

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

the Devils are absolutely not going to expose PK Subban. They are playing him 22+ minutes/night and in all situations. They clearly still value him even if we as fans don't.

as it stands now, the 3 protected DMen will be Severson, Subban, and Siegenthaler with Butcher exposed

 

[Triumph]

Subban could very well be taken because he will be in the last year of his contract and Seattle needs to hit the cap floor. Subban will also have very good trade value at the 2022 deadline if the Devils find themselves on the outside looking in the playoff picture once more. So I would be willing to protect Subban and trade a pick or prospect to Seattle to lay off McLeod and Bastian and instead take the awful Johnsson contract off NJ's hands. Maybe Butcher will be of interest to Seattle, as well.

Seattle is going to have absolutely no trouble at all hitting the cap floor. The league is jammed up with long-term contracts and many expensive deals will be available for free, as well as teams wanting to package expensive players and draft picks/prospects to get Seattle from taking a player they value more.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

The Devils can still acquire a D and expose Subban if that's their MO - I doubt Subban would be claimed in expansion.

I think that there's no way Seattle takes Subban even with his improved play recently.

Where are you guys getting this from?

If Subban is exposed you can bet Seattle management will have interns running out to grab champagne and lube. Because that's going to be one hell of a party.

Who cares about cap hit when you're talking about a legit second pairing defenseman with star power and a personality to match it? He'd be invaluable to an expansion franchise.

 

[Triumph]

the Devils are absolutely not going to expose PK Subban. They are playing him 22+ minutes/night and in all situations. They clearly still value him even if we as fans don't.

as it stands now, the 3 protected DMen will be Severson, Subban, and Siegenthaler with Butcher exposed

They will not expose Subban now, but if they found a D they wanted at a price they wanted? I think they would risk it. Or they would risk exposing Siegenthaler, who is not an attractive target for Seattle.

 

[Guttersniped]

Subban could very well be taken because he will be in the last year of his contract and Seattle needs to hit the cap floor. Subban will also have very good trade value at the 2022 deadline if the Devils find themselves on the outside looking in the playoff picture once more. So I would be willing to protect Subban and trade a pick or prospect to Seattle to lay off McLeod and Bastian and instead take the awful Johnsson contract off NJ's hands. Maybe Butcher will be of interest to Seattle, as well.

The Cap floor is 60.2m, you think that Seattle will be 9m short of that somehow? Teams will be both exposing good players with bigger salaries to make cap space and many will try to bribe Seattle to take a cap dump. They won’t be short and Subban’s 9m is EDIT: 11.04% of the Cap Limit (81.5m). There’s almost a zero percent chance that Francis spends all that on one dude who isn’t worth it. (I’d say zero but sometimes life is weird.)

The Devils are going to expose Subban, Seattle would be nuts to take him and we can figure out something if they do take him. He tied with Skinner for 25th highest cap hit and he’s not remotely worth it. He costs 8m, 6m in the form of signing bonus. No team is volunteering for that right now, and improved play and a great personality won’t change that. (I realize this post is super repetitive but I can’t stress it enough.)

 

[Zippy316]

I could see Subban being left off but only if Fitzgerald has something massive up his sleeves.

There’s a good chance it could be agreed upon where Seattle wants the brand ambassador and publicity Subban brings for a new team. But Fitzgerald would need to be fully willing to use that additional cap space to improve the team.

I know it’s dreaming but an off-season of Seattle taking Subban and the Devils signing Hamilton as a UFA would be incredible. More likely Devils make a trade for an additional defender to protect and leave Subban/Butcher available.

 

[Triumph]

Where are you guys getting this from?

If Subban is exposed you can bet Seattle management will have interns running out to grab champagne and lube. Because that's going to be one hell of a party.

Who cares about cap hit when you're talking about a legit second pairing defenseman with star power and a personality to match it? He'd be invaluable to an expansion franchise.

It's not clear that Subban is a legit second pairing defenseman anymore, and less clear that if he is one now, that he would still be one next season. The Kraken will sell out every date regardless of who they take - their goal is to be selling out the arena in 5 years.

 

[Unknown Caller]

It's not clear that Subban is a legit second pairing defenseman anymore, and less clear that if he is one now, that he would still be one next season. The Kraken will sell out every date regardless of who they take - their goal is to be selling out the arena in 5 years.

Subban would probably sell the most jerseys of anybody they could take in the expansion draft, and there’s the obvious connection of trying to generate interest from the African American community. Subban is also a huge media figure and would probably be front and center with a lot of the marketing stuff. There are a lot of reasons for them to take Subban.

 

[Lou is God]

I think some teams would find Subban enticing to bring on just for his persona, he's really a big city player public relations-wise, he's lost here in the shadows of NYC.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

The Cap floor is 60.2m, you think that Seattle will be 9m short of that somehow? Teams will be both exposing good players with bigger salaries to make cap space and many will try to bribe Seattle to take a cap dump. They won’t be short and Subban’s 9m is 13.04% of the Cap Limit (81.5m). There’s almost a zero percent chance that Francis spends all that on one dude who isn’t worth it. (I’d say zero but sometimes life is weird.)

The Devils are going to expose Subban, Seattle would be nuts to take him and we can figure out something if they do take him. He tied with Skinner for 25th highest cap hit and he’s not remotely worth it. He costs 8m, 6m in the form of signing bonus. No team is volunteering for that right now, and improved play and a great personality won’t change that. (I realize this post is super repetitive but I can’t stress it enough.)

The fact that he would be a pending UFA is like killing 2 birds with one stone for Francis and Seattle. He would be getting a "big name player" to get that exposure as he’s a PR type of guy and if they don’t make the playoffs, he can be traded at the deadline for a solid package.

We all know that Subban isn’t the Norris trophy winner he once was but he’s still a serviceable top #4 dman. Is he worth his salary, absolutely not but he’s a very solid asset that can give you one good year and bring back a good package at the deadline.

Those things are way more useful to an expansion team when you compare the other options that might be available to them this summer.

 

[jkrdevil]

I think some teams would find Subban enticing to bring on just for his persona, he's really a big city player public relations-wise, he's lost here in the shadows of NYC.

As we have learned persona only matters if you can actually back it up. If you can’t (and he can’t anymore) it is a liability. He wouldn’t be lost in the shadows of NYC if he could still play at an elite level and the team was good.

I just hate the idea of though of a team bringing in a big name because they can “sell tickets.” Sure you might get a sugar high of ticket sales, but long term if they player can’t perform anymore you probably cost yourself ticket sales long term because the fans lose confidence in management.

 

[Lou is God]

As we have learned persona only matters if you can actually back it up. If you can’t (and he can’t anymore) it is a liability. He wouldn’t be lost in the shadows of NYC if he could still play at an elite level and the team was good.

I just hate the idea of though of a team bringing in a big name because they can “sell tickets.” Sure you might get a sugar high of ticket sales, but long term if they player can’t perform anymore you probably cost yourself ticket sales long term because the fans lose confidence in management.

In theory you're right, but's it's not like good defensemen grow on trees.

 

[hidek91]

Where are you guys getting this from?

If Subban is exposed you can bet Seattle management will have interns running out to grab champagne and lube. Because that's going to be one hell of a party.

Who cares about cap hit when you're talking about a legit second pairing defenseman with star power and a personality to match it? He'd be invaluable to an expansion franchise.

Subban at 9M is still a bad contract, despite him playing well recently. You actually say it yourself when you call him 2nd pair d-man, which I agree with, with the notion that for the significant part of his tenure with Devils he looked more like 3rd pair d-man but let's assume that he will not regress to that until his contract is up which is optimistic but possible.

Now, while I like his personality (but I also like Wedgewood's personality and some other personalities in NHL), under normal circumstances you can consider cap hit of 9M for a defenceman as acceptable only if he's #1D. Doughty, Pietrangelo, Hedman, Seth Jones, Fox (this name will derail this discussion but w/e), Heiskanen - I'm OK with paying them 9M. Subban was in this group at some point but it was in the past. Now please keep in mind that I said "normal circumstances", in COVID era, when teams can't get rid of cap hits to save their lives and quite solid players clear the waivers, there's no way Seattle takes him unless we attach something.

Another argument would be that VGK didn't take any bad contract unless they were paid (in futures) to do so. Why would Seattle do us a favor?

 

[Auto Pilot]

Subban at 9M is still a bad contract, despite him playing well recently. You actually say it yourself when you call him 2nd pair d-man, which I agree with, with the notion that for the significant part of his tenure with Devils he looked more like 3rd pair d-man but let's assume that he will not regress to that until his contract is up which is optimistic but possible.

Now, while I like his personality (but I also like Wedgewood's personality and some other personalities in NHL), under normal circumstances you can consider cap hit of 9M for a defenceman as acceptable only if he's #1D. Doughty, Pietrangelo, Hedman, Seth Jones, Fox (this name will derail this discussion but w/e), Heiskanen - I'm OK with paying them 9M. Subban was in this group at some point but it was in the past. Now please keep in mind that I said "normal circumstances", in COVID era, when teams can't get rid of cap hits to save their lives and quite solid players clear the waivers, there's no way Seattle takes him unless we attach something.

Another argument would be that VGK didn't take any bad contract unless they were paid (in futures) to do so. Why would Seattle do us a favor?

Jones and Doughty are not worth 9 million. Doughty might have been in his prime, but sure as shit not now. Jones never was either.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Not sure what happened in here, but that got way out of control. Keep it about this trade.

 

[Guttersniped]

This thread took a turn while I gathered some cap numbers but, yeah, Seattle won’t take Subban simply because cap space will be more valuable this ED.

Not only is the cap flat for a second year, the season after Vegas’ 1st there was a big bump in cap from the new revenue, the Cap Limit went from 75m to 79.5m in 2018-19. So not only were teams expecting the cap to go up several million these last two seasons, they were expecting a massive jump after Seattle’s 1st season. But in the revised CBA it can only go up 1m in 2023-24 and it might not go up at all (it’s dependent on increased revenue that’s likely not there yet). The players’ escrow is too in “debt” after all the lost revenue.

Cap Friendly has Vegas’ 1st 2017-18 final cap hit at 68.7m, with 6.3m remaining cap space. The Cap floor was 55.4m and the Cap limit was 75m.

Vegas clearly didn’t have any problem clearing that cap floor. This time more teams will be exposing better players with big contracts in hopes of clearing cap space (plus bribing for cap dumps), there’s just no way Francis can commit 11.04% of his entire cap on one individual player when the cap won’t go up much for a year or two more due to escrow issues (I apologize that I put PK’s old Cap % in my 1st post). Francis won’t have drafted star prospects on value ELCs, he won’t have a prospect at all unless he horse trades for them, he’s going to have a number of unwieldy contracts and Subban’s number is simply too big.

What were things like cap wise for teams in 2016-17 before the Vegas ED?

Cap Limit: 73m Cap Floor: 54m
In 2016-17, 4 capped out teams were +1m the Cap Limit (some by quite a lot) , 7 ~capped out teams were above it by less than a 1m of the CL, 3 teams were > 1m below the CL, 9 teams were between 72m-70m and 7 teams were <70m.

The four highest teams’ “Cap Hits”: DET (78.9m), PIT (77.6m), ANA (77m) and ARI (75.3m).

How about 2020-21?

Cap Limit: 81.5m Cap Floor: 60.2m
So in 2021-22, 11 capped out teams cap hit projection are +1m above the CL (some by a lot), 4 more ~capped teams are projected to be above it by less than a 1m, 5 teams are projected > 1m below the CL, 6 teams are projected between 80.4m-78.6m and 4 teams are below that.

The eleven highest teams “projected Cap Hits”: TBL (98.6m), STL (90m), NYI (88m), VAN (86m), CHI (85.5m), WAS (85.2m), ANA (85.2m), EDM (84.8m), DAL (84.2m), WPG (83.7m) and TOR (83.4m).

This can’t be the best time for these projected cap figures but it still gives us a sense of how f***ed most teams caps are. Just because FAs a feeling the brunt of it and we aren’t being gifted teams’ best young players doesn’t mean these caps aren’t a nightmare that are going to get worse before they get better. Teams were counting on cap being at least 10m more then they will be in 2022-23, that’s devastating. They might take Subban if we would retain 1/2 but with size of contracts teams will be dumping, 9m is too much. I don’t see how it’s feasible much less the best use of their limited valuable cap space.

Those are rough rundowns from the archived 2016-17 archived caps and the current one on Cap Friendly. I did it relatively quickly, so apologies for any errors.

Past Salary Cap Payrolls - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Shutdown Dman?

NICE. We need that.

Uhhhh what the heckin' heck you heckers. Holy flashy thingy.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Subban would probably sell the most jerseys of anybody they could take in the expansion draft, and there’s the obvious connection of trying to generate interest from the African American community. Subban is also a huge media figure and would probably be front and center with a lot of the marketing stuff. There are a lot of reasons for them to take Subban.

And 9 million reasons for them not to

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Hey all, I don't see an active discussion thread about this player so I'm just gonna use this thread. I was digging through some analytics today and noticed that Siegenthaler was 4th in the NHL in QoC this season behind Nurse, McAvoy, and Pelech which was a big surprise to me b/c he was playing quite sheltered minutes in past years. How did he fare in this role and what are your guys' thoughts on his season. Also wanna trade him over to the Oilers?

 

[Devils731]

Hey all, I don't see an active discussion thread about this player so I'm just gonna use this thread. I was digging through some analytics today and noticed that Siegenthaler was 4th in the NHL in QoC this season behind Nurse, McAvoy, and Pelech which was a big surprise to me b/c he was playing quite sheltered minutes in past years. How did he fare in this role and what are your guys' thoughts on his season. Also wanna trade him over to the Oilers?

Siegs was consistently pretty great defensively in a system that makes it pretty difficult to succeed defensively on a consistent basis.

He’s also good at getting to the right places in the offensive zone and jumping into the rush at the right times…and then totally botched the finish.

He’s a big value contract right now who can be your 2nd pairing defense first guy and if he ever got better at making the final offensive play he’d be a very strong all around 2nd pairing/defensive first pairing guy.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Hey all, I don't see an active discussion thread about this player so I'm just gonna use this thread. I was digging through some analytics today and noticed that Siegenthaler was 4th in the NHL in QoC this season behind Nurse, McAvoy, and Pelech which was a big surprise to me b/c he was playing quite sheltered minutes in past years. How did he fare in this role and what are your guys' thoughts on his season. Also wanna trade him over to the Oilers?

He is already a top 4 shutdown DMan that can kill penalties. Was a steal of a trade by Fitz...he just needed some time to get acclimated after not playing consistently.

I wish we could clone him tbh because another one of his playstyle is exactly what we need.

 

[ninetyeight]

Was easily our best Dman defensively. Super solid and reliable, wish we had 2 more of him to slot with all our offensive D. Definitely not looking to trade him unless someone is overpaying by a lot.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Got my hopes up we made a move when I saw a confirmed with link thread lol

Siegs is awesome though, literally the perfect defenseman for what this team so desperately needed, and still needs to be honest. Hope Fitz locks him up long term as soon as he can.

 

[I Hate Tie DOMI]

I thought we traded Siegenthaler away and almost died.