Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part VII

[njdevils1982]

zacha for cy young 2019

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I didnt know that, but it doesnt shock me as Moore shot a ton. Shooting the puck is the #1 best way to help your CF%. Look at the NHL defensemen who shoot a lot, and their CF looks good. Doesnt necessarily mean they can defend for **** though.

Vatanen and Moore...yea Moore was a great possession player. You know who else is a shoot heavy player....Sami Vatanen.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

However, you guys are right. Stats are irrelevant and if I disagree with what you guys are seeing it's obvious I don't watch hockey. Good thing you can quantify what you see...NHL teams should be lining up to hire you guys.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Not this season, next season once Smith and Davies are pro.

Generally speaking it is not worth bringing up anything here that does not make the forward lines or defense pairs look better in the short term. It is an interesting thought. I certainly would not be interested in signing Vats long term as I agree he probably will not age well. It will be interesting to see how things play out with our D over the next year or so.

 

[DerekDevils30]

However, you guys are right. Stats are irrelevant and if I disagree with what you guys are seeing it's obvious I don't watch hockey. Good thing you can quantify what you see...NHL teams should be lining up to hire you guys.

You should be here for a game day thread. Lord almighty. You ain't seen nothin' yet

 

[My3Sons]

Generally speaking it is not worth bringing up anything here that does not make the forward lines or defense pairs look better in the short term. It is an interesting thought. I certainly would not be interested in signing Vats long term as I agree he probably will not age well. It will be interesting to see how things play out with our D over the next year or so.

I think the smooth effortless skaters age better than high effort skaters like Vats. As always it depends how many years he wants to stick around. He’s a great keeper at 3-4 years. Any longer and you have to think about it.

 

[My3Sons]

However, you guys are right. Stats are irrelevant and if I disagree with what you guys are seeing it's obvious I don't watch hockey. Good thing you can quantify what you see...NHL teams should be lining up to hire you guys.

I think everyone has their bias. To some the stats are the starting point and they drive what you look for in the game. To some the eye test is always the starting point and the stats are more of a confirmation than an end in themselves.

I’ve seen enough of your posts to know you watch plenty of games and can probably cite examples where the stats tell the true story and times when the eye test belies the stats.

To me it’s tricky and I’m still not sure that shots and shot attempts are necessarily proof of possession. I don’t understand why they don’t track actual possession. They could if they wanted to.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Ben Lovejoy says hi.

 

[My3Sons]

If the Devils are really going to play MarJo PZ and Bratt as a line then just leave Nico with Hall and Palms and move Zajac back to 3C with Coleman and ANDERSON. Wood Seney and Noesen can play on the second third line.

As for the defense I’d start any lineup right now with Mueller at LD1 and pick either Vats or Sevs for RD1 based on whoever is playing better. Greene should be LD2 with either Vats or Sevs. Third pair of course are Butcher and Lovejoy.

As for the trade Butcher discussion, to me it boils down to whether Shero sees him as a second pair guy. If he does then keep him and break Smith in next year on the third pair as Greene becomes the 7th defender. If Shero sees him as just a third pair guy it makes sense to move him if he sees Smith as making him expendable. To me the third pair should be for guys breaking in on a developing team. It shouldn’t be a permanent landing spot on a team that is still building.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

If the Devils are really going to play MarJo PZ and Bratt as a line then just leave Nico with Hall and Palms and move Zajac back to 3C with Coleman and ANDERSON. Wood Seney and Noesen can play on the second third line.

As for the defense I’d start any lineup right now with Mueller at LD1 and pick either Vats or Sevs for RD1 based on whoever is playing better. Greene should be LD2 with either Vats or Sevs. Third pair of course are Butcher and Lovejoy.

As for the trade Butcher discussion, to me it boils down to whether Shero sees him as a second pair guy. If he does then keep him and break Smith in next year on the third pair as Greene becomes the 7th defender. If Shero sees him as just a third pair guy it makes sense to move him if he sees Smith as making him expendable. To me the third pair should be for guys breaking in on a developing team. It shouldn’t be a permanent landing spot on a team that is still building.

Greene will not be the 7th defender next season, and I can guarantee you that

 

[My3Sons]

Greene will not be the 7th defender next season, and I can guarantee you that

I’m sure Hynes will play him if he has to push his wheelchair around the ice himself. He shouldn’t but he will. I guess they can always send Smith back to junior or just have him sit most of his rookie season.

 

[BenedictGomez]

To me it’s tricky and I’m still not sure that shots and shot attempts are necessarily proof of possession. I don’t understand why they don’t track actual possession. They could if they wanted to.

Sometimes in medical research, you'll have a healthcare study ongoing for many years, and at the end of the research it's determined that the study was doomed to fail from the start, because the conclusion of the analysis actually was not analyzing what they thought it was analyzing from the very beginning.

Corsi is like this for me.

While many people just "accept it", because they've been told to, I have seen no objective research, or heard no rational explanation put forth that demonstrates that what it shows, is actually what it shows. And the explanation for it's validity is not even inherrently logical to me.

 

[Blender]

Sometimes in medical research, you'll have a healthcare study ongoing for many years, and at the end of the research it's determined that the study was doomed to fail from the start, because the conclusion of the analysis actually was not analyzing what they thought it was analyzing from the very beginning.

Corsi is like this for me.

While many people just "accept it", because they've been told to, I have seen no objective research, or heard no rational explanation put forth that demonstrates that what it shows, is actually what it shows. And the explanation for it's validity is not even inherrently logical to me.

Corsi shows the number of shot attempts for and against, which provides some indication of the amount of time that team/player spends in the offensive or defensive zones (not all teams shoot the same, so this is one issue with that conclusion). That's it. I have never seen any detailed analysis that you can take an individuals CF% and make any meaningful conclusions about their quality as a player from that. It's a nice stat to have that has uses, but people jump to wild conclusions based on what is a fairly simple statistic.

 

[Bleedred]

When it comes to corsi, I look at relative corsi and not actual corsi for and against, at least when analyzing single players. There's a lot of crap players on strong possession teams that are like a 52% corsi while being a -3 or -4 relative corsi and vice versa. Vatanen is a career -0.1 relative corsi, that's even strength, not necessarily 5 on 5. He was a dead even 0.0 as a Duck. As a Devil he's a -0.6 and a +0.7 this season. Not great, but also not bad for a guy that plays the heavy minutes and matchups that he does. I'm not sure how many players on the team would have done better in those situations than he has so far. Greene was torched last year and was a -6.2 at even strength. Actually in his career, Greene is a -1.3 relative corsi at even strength.

Justin Braun has a better career corsi for percentage than Sami Vatanen. He's also a 49.7% corsi player this year while Vatanen is a 49.6% corsi player. Yet as far as relative corsi goes, Vatanen is a +0.1 and Braun is a scary bad -8.5 relative corsi.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

As for Zacha, I’m happy for the guy and happier for the team. However, it will take more the 3 or 4 games to have me admit that he was the right pick for the organization.

 

[Bleedred]

For what it's worth, the year Adam Larsson was last here, when he was being called a ''Stud'' he was a -3.7 relative corsi and had a corsi for percentage of 43.5 on the season.

 

[devilsblood]

For what it's worth, the year Adam Larsson was last here, when he was being called a ''Stud'' he was a -3.7 relative corsi and had a corsi for percentage of 43.5 on the season.

Relative Corsi is flawed too given it doesn't factor in level of competition. Lars(and Greene) that year played incredibly tough minutes. Both 5v5 but also PK.

And while his Corsi was bad, his goals for % was over 54% which was best on the team amongst d-men.

 

[devilsblood]

As for Zacha, I’m happy for the guy and happier for the team. However, it will take more the 3 or 4 games to have me admit that he was the right pick for the organization.

You have to get over the pick.

Questioning whether or not he will be a legit top 6 C is a good debate, and one that, as you say, will take more then 3 or 4 games to settle in the affirmative

 

[Blender]

You have to get over the pick.

Questioning whether or not he will be a legit top 6 C is a good debate, and one that, as you say, will take more then 3 or 4 games to settle in the affirmative

Agreed. Seriously, no amount of complaining is going to change who we picked. Focus on what he is and what he could be, and stop griping over a draft from over 3 years ago.

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

Will Cory start today?

 

[Bleedred]

Will Cory start today?

Why would he?

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

Why would he?

Well Kinky started on Wednesday. I just wanna know if Cory's in so Ill bet $20 against the Devils to see how long are we going to go winless with him in the net. this way we will at least get an OT point so I'll lose my money and we dont get a 2p win.

Wonder if @Emperoreddy will faint at this cynicism.

 

[Nubmer6]

Great quote BTW. So smart:

 

[billingtons ghost]

The stats tend to disagree with you. Sami Vatanen is a career sub 50% possession player. He really isn't a great defender at all.

Folks around here love to hold up corsi as the end all argument for severson, even as he is fishing pucks out of the net after blowing a 2-on-1 to lose a game or displaying his defensive incompetence in front of the net.

If you want to say he is our best offensive defenseman and might someday be our best defenseman, that is all fair... But he really seems to forget how to defend for at least a one or two costly bonehead plays a game. He is in no way ''our best defender" and corsi for a defenseman is a pretty weak bit of evidence to make that case.

I'll also temper the above by saying he has been great this year and has taken huge strides.

 

[Bleedred]

Well Kinky started on Wednesday. I just wanna know if Cory's in so Ill bet $20 against the Devils to see how long are we going to go winless with him in the net. this way we will at least get an OT point so I'll lose my money and we dont get a 2p win.

Wonder if @Emperoreddy will faint at this cynicism.

He'll probably be in @ Tampa on Sunday or @ Florida on Monday. They'll probably play him in the back to back.

They'll probably play him against Tampa if they're gonna play him one of those games, as it's literally the only team he's played well against in the last 11 months and the one team that always blows up Keith. Not to mention that we really don't need to see Cory vs Luongo again, who Cory always seemed to get beat up on when playing against, outside of a couple times where Luongo was the one who got blown apart.