Detroit Redwings Downfall

[WarriorofTime]

I don't see why Gauthier should have more excitement other than being picked 5th, over a guy like Buchelnikov picked in the same draft

Huh? Are you sure you're discussing the right guy. Gauthier had 43 points in the NHL this year. You're not sure why people think the 5th overall pick with 43 NHL points is a bit more likely than the 52nd pick with 54 KHL points? You're welcome to your opinion but this is where we venture down that "well the 20th pick *might* be better than the 1st pick" territory again.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Huh? Are you sure you're discussing the right guy. Gauthier had 43 points in the NHL this year. You're not sure why people think the 5th overall pick with 43 NHL points is a bit more likely than the 52nd pick with 54 KHL points? You're welcome to your opinion but this is where we venture down that "well the 20th pick *might* be better than the 1st pick" territory again.

Yes? Gauthier had 43 points in the NHL while Buchelnikov put up a top-5 all-time U23 KHL season? How is that not relevant?

Should Gauthier also be held above Demidov because he put up 43 points in the NHL?

Once again, if your only argument is draft slot, then we can just agree to disagree, because I don't think that means much after a few years out from the draft. And we are now 3 years out from the 2022 NHL draft and Cutter Gauthier looks solid but not like a superstar or something.

 

[BB88]

I think we have issues with watching young players do really well, show a lot of upside, and have fans of other teams insist that they're not actually doing that well and don't actually have a lot of upside.

All you do is twist facts to make yourself feel better about your players

I think everyone here agrees that Detroit has good young players, talented young players

What people have issues is that you try to pump them up higher than where they are, constantly

& nobody can disagree with you before 10 years has passed

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yes genius, please tell the world who should have been hired instead, or who can replace him right now.

I like the job Todd has done, but there is an unquestionably better coach out there right now.

... But apparently we're worried about the small group of internet loudmouths who would cry for a week about hiring him before moving on to the latest and greatest outrage signaling.

These are the people who got upset about us singing Reimer for not wearing a jersey, but not Watson for beating his girlfriend.

 

[Artaud]

Yes? Gauthier had 43 points in the NHL while Buchelnikov put up a top-5 all-time U23 KHL season? How is that not relevant?

Should Gauthier also be held above Demidov because he put up 43 points in the NHL?

Once again, if your only argument is draft slot, then we can just agree to disagree, because I don't think that means much after a few years out from the draft. And we are now 3 years out from the 2022 NHL draft and Cutter Gauthier looks solid but not like a superstar or something.

This right here is it. This is the problem.

You think every fanbase but Detroit's is irrationnally obtuse about Detroit's potential and refuses to admit they are elite, when it's more likely that Detroit's fan are (like all fans) overly optimistic about their own players.

You just bunched Buchelnikov with two of the most highly touted young wingers in the league based on one great season in the KHL. Admittedly nobody watches Podlosk games regularly so you might just be right and nobody knows, but there's a form of bias that arises from closely following some prospects more than others. He sure looks like a steal but you got to understand that for most neutral fans, seeing is believing.

 

[RedHawkDown]

This right here is it. This is the problem.

You think every fanbase but Detroit's is irrationnally obtuse about Detroit's potential and refuses to admit they are elite, when it's more likely that Detroit's fan are (like all fans) overly optimistic about their own players.

You just bunched Buchelnikov with two of the most highly touted young wingers in the league based on one great season in the KHL. Admittedly nobody watches Podlosk games regularly so you might just be right and nobody knows, but there's a form of bias that arises from closely following some prospects more than others. He sure looks like a steal but you got to understand that for most neutral fans, seeing is believing.

That’s completely fair. Can I ask why it’s not seeing is believing for someone like Beckett Sennecke, then? Just draft slot? If that’s the reasoning, sure.

 

[SensontheRush]

I like the job Todd has done, but there is an unquestionably better coach out there right now.

... But apparently we're worried about the small group of internet loudmouths who would cry for a week about hiring him before moving on to the latest and greatest outrage signaling.

These are the people who got upset about us singing Reimer for not wearing a jersey, but not Watson for beating his girlfriend.

Reimer's case is one of prejudice and ignorance, and Watson's case is one of someone who redeemed himself, and the details of the case are notably misconstrued. Both him and his wife had alcoholism issues and seeked treatment and recovery. They are still together.

Pretty shitty of you to use Watson like a prop.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Reimer's case is one of prejudice and ignorance, and Watson's case is one of someone who redeemed himself, and the details of the case are notably misconstrued. Both him and his wife had alcoholism issues and seeked treatment and recovery. They are still together.

Pretty shitty of you to use Watson like a prop.

Brother, you're arguing the guy that wouldn't wear a jersey to support a social movement is worse than a guy who physically assaulted his spouse.

Give your head a shake.

 

[Artaud]

That’s completely fair. Can I ask why it’s not seeing is believing for someone like Beckett Sennecke, then? Just draft slot? If that’s the reasoning, sure.

Reasoning is that Buchelnikov has shown this level of play for one season in a league few NHL fans watch, and on a team nobody watches. Sennecke plays in the most scouted junior league and has had very promising 17 and 18 year old seasons.

I'm not saying Buchelnikov isn't worthy of hype, I'm arguing that it's understandable that he's flying under the radar. For the record, I think Buchelnikov is Detroit's best hope at a successful rebuild. He could be what Kaprizov was to the Wild : an unexpected star coming from Russia to lift a team from mediocrity.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Reasoning is that Buchelnikov has shown this level of play for one season in a league few NHL fans watch, and on a team nobody watches. Sennecke plays in the most scouted junior league and has had very promising 17 and 18 year old seasons.

I'm not saying Buchelnikov isn't worthy of hype, I'm arguing that it's understandable that he's flying under the radar. For the record, I think Buchelnikov is Detroit's best hope at a successful rebuild. He could be what Kaprizov was to the Wild : an unexpected star coming from Russia to lift a team from mediocrity.

I agree.I’m not saying it’s surprising he’s under the radar. But when we are having discussions like the one in this thread it seems silly to pretend like he doesn’t have sky high potential.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Reasoning is that Buchelnikov has shown this level of play for one season in a league few NHL fans watch, and on a team nobody watches. Sennecke plays in the most scouted junior league and has had very promising 17 and 18 year old seasons.

I'm not saying Buchelnikov isn't worthy of hype, I'm arguing that it's understandable that he's flying under the radar. For the record, I think Buchelnikov is Detroit's best hope at a successful rebuild. He could be what Kaprizov was to the Wild : an unexpected star coming from Russia to lift a team from mediocrity.

There's more riding on ASP and the goalies than Buchelnikov, IMO.

There's a handful of star/superstar wingers in UFA this year alone. RHD and Goalies are virtually impossible to get your hands on.

 

[FiveTacos]

That’s completely fair. Can I ask why it’s not seeing is believing for someone like Beckett Sennecke, then? Just draft slot? If that’s the reasoning, sure.

Of course draft slot matters. A guy who's picked high who puts up good numbers is confirmation of his proper draft status (in Sennecke's case, confirmation that his 2nd half last year was "real"). A later guy putting up big numbers could have been under-drafted ... but people are naturally more skeptical. Every year there's some mid to late rounders who put up big numbers in junior, but fair or not most still consider them longshots for quite a while. A late 1st who blossoms draws less skepticism, but still more than a top 5 pick. Just how it is.

That is, until they hit the pros, then that junior/euro/college stuff just doesn't matter. At this moment for example, Gauthier has to be considered more projectable than Sennecke or even Demidov, because it's pretty obvious most of his game will translate to the NHL. Since we're so focused on "pace" and comparisons, his last 29 NHL games he's been on a 59 point pace, and he's overall a plus player on a minus team. I think his season compares well to Raymond's 20/21 y.o. season. And his likelihood of living up to his draft status after a very good rookie season is vastly higher than a guy who has yet to play an NHL game.

Demidov and perhaps Sennecke would properly be considered to have a higher ceiling and value, but as of this moment it would be difficult to argue that either is a more certain bet ... it is pretty safe to say that Gauthier will not be an outright bust, but those other guys *could* still be.

 

[Stephen]

That’s completely fair. Can I ask why it’s not seeing is believing for someone like Beckett Sennecke, then? Just draft slot? If that’s the reasoning, sure.

A recent top 3 pick is going to carry a lot more projected upside and value than a prospect who wasn’t. Could turn out differently but reasonable educated look ahead is going to assume Anaheim has the better piece.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Of course draft slot matters. A guy who's picked high who puts up good numbers is confirmation of his proper draft status (in Sennecke's case, confirmation that his 2nd half last year was "real"). A later guy putting up big numbers could have been under-drafted ... but people are naturally more skeptical. Every year there's some mid to late rounders who put up big numbers in junior, but fair or not most still consider them longshots for quite a while.

Another factor is that a lot of guys with gaudy numbers that didn't go super high in the draft often had impressive pre-draft numbers as well. Usually it means there was some "concern" that would have accounted for why they didn't go higher (whether the concern is real or imagined). So for instance, Gabe Perreault put up a million points at the NTDP. He continued to put up a million points at Boston College. That's obviously a good thing, it'd be worse if he didn't put up a million points. But the concerns the skeptics had that would explain why, despite having a million points at the NTDP he "only" went 23rd, don't get erased because he continues on the trend of putting up points at the amateur level. The only way you'd really "erase" the concerns is to put up points at NHL level, which in turn would invalidate a lot of those skeptics.

 

[MoneyManny]

I'm not exactly sure what any of you want - every single plan or option any of us offer or discuss is shot down as "not feasible" or "impossible". Do you want us to just say "you're all right, we have to fire Yzerman, trade Raymond, Seider and Larkin, and rebuild for another 10 years"? Like what are we even doing here?

That's a great idea. The Habs will take all 3 for future considerations, that'll leave the Red Wings a nice, empty canvas to start their rebuild with. You're welcome.

 

[theVladiator]

All you do is twist facts to make yourself feel better about your players

I think everyone here agrees that Detroit has good young players, talented young players

What people have issues is that you try to pump them up higher than where they are, constantly

& nobody can disagree with you before 10 years has passed

I am not sure "where they are" is of much interest to anyone, except where it matters to predicting where they will be. This is very much a thread about DRW future. And when talking about the future, it's not possible to say with any level of certainty how things will unfold. Nobody knows the future, and there are different paths DRW could take from here.

Speaking of different paths, let's not forget that this thread is titled "DRW downfall". Notice how there is no question mark in there. And that question mark is quite appropriately also missing from most, if not all, negative prognostications made about DRW here. It's kind of a troll thread at the root of it, you should be able to tell from the title. Which is why it's as long as it is. If this thread was titled "Red Wings are screwed. Or maybe not." it would likely have a single post in it.

One last thing. Describing the possible positive outcomes isn't equivalent to claiming that the that it's the only way things can turn out. The most direct way to disprove the claim of inevitable doom is to point out that the upside does exist, and there are reasons for optimism.

 

[BB88]

I am not sure "where they are" is of much interest to anyone, except where it matters to predicting where they will be. This is very much a thread about DRW future. And when talking about the future, it's not possible to say with any level of certainty how things will unfold. Nobody knows the future, and there are different paths DRW could take from here.

Speaking of different paths, let's not forget that this thread is titled "DRW downfall". Notice how there is no question mark in there. And that question mark is quite appropriately also missing from most, if not all, negative prognostications made about DRW here. It's kind of a troll thread at the root of it, you should be able to tell from the title. Which is why it's as long as it is. If this thread was titled "Red Wings are screwed. Or maybe not." it would likely have a single post in it.

One last thing. Describing the possible positive outcomes isn't equivalent to claiming that the that it's the only way things can turn out. The most direct way to disprove the claim of inevitable doom is to point out that the upside does exist, and there are reasons for optimism.

Why this thread is active and was created was because Y was hyped to be the best Gm in the business and everyone were made to be aware of it

Yet at the same time he seems to get all the excuses in the World to not perform

That’s going to stirr up comments

 

[OccidentalOctopus]

why not just click “ignore thread”? Serious question

Because I don't stay logged in. I usually browse "anonymously" and only log in when I have something to add.

 

[OccidentalOctopus]

My favorite posts are when people post in threads asking why people post in threads.

My favorite posts are when people complain about people complaining.

 

[OccidentalOctopus]

'Ignore Thread'

Bye.

I don't stay logged in.

So, later, I guess?

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

If you’re criticizing detroits drafting you’re completely out to lunch and don’t know what you’re talking about. They got great players in 4 straight drafts from 19-22. Their rebuild isn’t taking this long because of drafting, it’s because of Yzermans failure to build anything substantial around these young guys. I’d also argue goaltending has been a huge sleeper issue, let’s say they had a guy like vasilevsky in net right now, They are easily in the playoffs and a lot of the criticism isn’t as magnified. Reality is almost all of Yzermans trades and FA acquisitions have been duds, and those are the players holding them back. They also tried to add too many players too soon, if they had been a bottom 5 team last year that’s a massive difference for their rebuild.

 

[OccidentalOctopus]

Why this thread is active and was created was because Y was hyped to be the best Gm in the business and everyone were made to be aware of it

Yet at the same time he seems to get all the excuses in the World to not perform

That’s going to stirr up comments

The problem here is the individual definition of "perform."

Your definition is yours. You watch hockey and post on message boards.

My definition is mine. I eat dynamite and shit nuclear waste. Along with the other two.

The only definition that matters is the one of the guy signing Stephen P.L. Yzerman's check.

If someone wants to shout from the rooftops that Steve Yzerman isn't performing, knock themselves out. If someone wants to shout from the rooftops that Steve Yzerman is performing just fine, knock themselves out. At this point, it's not going to make a bit of difference.

Circular arguments are all that's happening now. We know everyone's opinion. Nobody is going to change theirs. 4000 comments about it, going round and round. So who keeps stirring up those comments now? Surely people disagreeing from page 1 are still fighting about it, right? No? Oh, then it must be people just trying to stir up shit.

The horse is dead. Stop picking at it. You'll feel better.

 

[OccidentalOctopus]

If you’re criticizing detroits drafting you’re completely out to lunch and don’t know what you’re talking about. They got great players in 4 straight drafts from 19-22. Their rebuild isn’t taking this long because of drafting, it’s because of Yzermans failure to build anything substantial around these young guys. I’d also argue goaltending has been a huge sleeper issue, let’s say they had a guy like vasilevsky in net right now, They are easily in the playoffs and a lot of the criticism isn’t as magnified. Reality is almost all of Yzermans trades and FA acquisitions have been duds, and those are the players holding them back. They also tried to add too many players too soon, if they had been a bottom 5 team last year that’s a massive difference for their rebuild.

I don't know, I think he's had a few swings and misses rather than signing guys he knows won't move the needle. For the forwards:

- Tarasenko won a Cup last year. 23g, 32a during the season, tell me you wouldn't have gone after that. Then his father dies in June, and you don't get time to grieve because $millions of reasons. I don't think anyone thought Terry would drop off this precipitously;
- Copp is overpaid a bit, but you saw what happened when he got injured: Complete collapse. He's the ideal 3C for this team when he gets healthy;
- ADB needs no introduction;
- Kane needs no introduction;
- Motte is an average 4th line energy guy. Meh;
- Watson is a great 4th line guy, great teammate, and great with the organization. He's a high character grit guy the Wings desperately need;
- I don't know shit about Smith
- Compher is trash.

So really, the young forwards (Raymond, Kasper, Berggren, Soderblom, and to a lesser extent Rasmussen) should have a decent group of forwards here.

Defensively:
- Chiarot is a 2nd pair guy being asked to play 1st pair minutes. He's just not that good. Put him lower in the order, watch him thrive;
- Petry is a 3rd pair guy being asked to play 2nd pair minutes. He's just not that good. Put him lower in the order, watch him thrive;
- Holl is hot trash;
- Gustafsson is hotter trash.

So really, the young defensemen (Edvinsson, Johansson, and to a lesser extent Seider) are about breaking even when it comes to garbage signings. With ASP and maybe someone from Grand Rapids knocking down the door, chances were taken, again, on placeholders.

Goalies:
- Who do you want? Who would you realistically be after? Long term, high price when Cossa is right around the corner, and Augustine coming up behind him? That seems like a poor use of salary. That's why we have signings like Lyon, Husso, Talbot, and now Mrazek: They're hoping to catch one of these guys on a big season for cheap to give Cossa an easier start into the league. If Cossa pushes himself onto the team, things can be done to resolve any conflicts.

In my opinon, Yzerman has made only one truly bad signing: Compher. Holl and Gustafsson are bad players, but their contracts aren't ridiculous. Otherwise, some of the suport cast underperformed, and some got injured; we don't have a bad team.

Another thing that didn't help was Uncle Fester's overly long stay, but the chances were there afterward.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think this is a larger conversation around the team success. Some of these guys are in year 3 and 4 of being in the league, and their team isn't getting better. There is a natural progression where sometimes young star players elevate to leaders of their teams around 23-24 years old and raise the overall quality to make them contenders. Detroit's players haven't done that. I think they can maybe get there, but fans from other teams are saying if Detroit hasn't shown the ability to win at the level of playoff teams, why are we comfortable just saying these young players WILL be something they aren't yet? Sure, they may. But it's not a for sure, and I've spent 5 pages of this thread being told by certain Detroit fans that Kasper is FOR SURE a second line center right now (he isn't), and Edvinsson is FOR SURE a future top pairing D, and Seider if he just get's a good partner is FOR SURE a top end #1 D. They could be, but nothing is for sure

You're conflating the natural progression of the young core with a linear progression of standings points.
The two are often linked, but far from always with a 1:1 relationship.

Devils regressed coming out of their rebuild. Sens did. This season one can probably list 10-15 reasons for Detroit's regression before discussion even starts on their core players.

if you look at the post i quoted it had a core listed for the future in the core it had

2 forwards not in the league, 1 forward with 1 nhl game, 1 forward with less than 50 games (with meh production so far but young enough where banking on improvement makes sense). So thats 4 forwards where you are banking on them to hit.

ASP being penciled in as the #3 dman. Do not get me wrong i know he has hype and the credentials but penciling in a prospect in that high of a role of the get go rarely works. But even besides that point locking in someone as your future #3 without seeing an nhl game out of him is banking on him to be 100% hit.

then theres 3 other prospects listed as people that would get a look. But the following sentence says that and i quote "That's 14 guys who are 24 and under and are all legit NHL players."

so it might not be you per say but you responded to my post but its clear there are people banking on all of your main prospects hitting 100%. Ask any fanbase, look at any recent prospect pool, that just doesnt happen

That poster also said "some will make it" and MBN and Danielson adding "depth" which is certainly not their 100% potential. Even ASP becoming a viable #3, while optimistic, isn't what I'd call banking on him hitting 100%.

All you do is twist facts to make yourself feel better about your players

I think everyone here agrees that Detroit has good young players, talented young players

What people have issues is that you try to pump them up higher than where they are, constantly

& nobody can disagree with you before 10 years has passed

What twisted facts are those? The fact that Kasper is young and has potential to improve?

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Nah. I've openly criticized numerous moves. As opposed to you getting a chubby for hating the guy.

Actually, I'm on the record as saying Yzerman was my favorite player.

Unlike some, I can separate Yzerman the player from Yzerman the underwhelming GM.