Detroit Redwings Downfall

[Czechboy]

Seider was the first part of the rebuild. Because of this his profile looms large and emotional for many. I watched a lot of RW games down the stretch and didn't see a great #1D. I saw many mistakes, especially for someone who has played as many games as he has at this point. I know his usage has been tough but that is what #1D's usually face. Fans here expect to see a bunch more growth but maybe this is what he is. Maybe a better partner will bring more out of him but when I watch him I see Barret Jackman. No, they aren't anything alike as players except what they were as rookies was pretty much what they ever were.

I do legit believe that when he gets a few more good players around him that he will shine more. But next year's top 4 may have another rookie in Asp. He just doesn't have stable enough guys around him IMO. If he got traded to a team with a strong Top 4 I think he'd be in Norris talks.

 

[Frobbo]

I do legit believe that when he gets a few more good players around him that he will shine more. But next year's top 4 may have another rookie in Asp. He just doesn't have stable enough guys around him IMO. If he got traded to a team with a strong Top 4 I think he'd be in Norris talks.

Agree to disagree. A true Norris candidate doesn't need a strong top 4.

 

[theVladiator]

10 years points back to the time when scouting and NHL draft efficiency has been at its best. Video scouting wasn’t a consistent thing until the early 2010s, and enhanced scouting departments with pro scouting personnel really expended around 2011. Using drafting strategies from even 15 years ago is very outdated, and it’s why you see more busts in the late 2000s

10 years is sufficient enough given the matters of scouting technology and techniques have stayed consistent during that time.

"Sufficient" is not the word you should use there. I think you are trying to say that one cannot extend the comparison into 2000s the way I did because of changes made later in the drafting tech. Technology has changed, but if you want to use this as the argument to reject drafts before early 2010s, you'd have to demonstrate clear impact of that change, claiming that it does without it undermines your argument. Regardless, there are bigger issues with it anyhow, explained further.

Sufficient or not is the question of the sample size. I suppose you were trying to make two point in one sentence. One was that we cannot compare to drafts before 2010, and the other that 10 drafts is enough of a sample size. That made for one messed up sentence, but I think I managed to read your mind there. Yet, you haven't actually demonstrated that sample size is of adequate size either, which also undermines your argument. But guess what, that's still not the biggest issue with it! Read on.

The main problem here is that the analysis approach you have shown is just completely not suitable to determine if a team drafted well or not. Suppose you see that the pick is below historical average, you can't claim that the team drafted poorly until you show that available prospects were not below historical average. Suppose you see that the team's pick was above historical average, but again you have to show that available prospects were at historical average or worse, otherwise the team was just lucky because of a strong draft.

Bottom line - if you want to make an argument about team drafting well or not, you have to analyze alternative choices in front of the team at the time. That's the only comparison that can actually tell you anything about how informed/skilled team's choice was.

Regarding class strength and situations, of course there is a more complex analysis here. Frankly, too many Detroit fans are being too simplistic in their analysis of their GM by just saying “well, he picked really good players at the top of 2019, 2020, and 2021, so he is a great drafter”. Take into account full classes, volume of picks available, and situations of development to obtain the full picture.

For me, I’ve stayed consistent that I analyze a player against their peers in the class and the GMs against the situations other GMs have been in during the same tenure. Someone said to me getting a second line center at 8th overall is “great”. From my view of who was selected over the last ten drafts, second line of second pairing seems very common.

The problem is, you are complaining that DRW fans presented you with a simplistic analysis, but I see you countering with a pretty flawed argument of your own.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Monster game from Kasper. Top 3 rookie in the league 2nd half of the season imo.

 

[newfy]

Do we just pass over that he had 31 picks from 2019-2021 and his hit rate was what 7 NHL players or prospects of 31? These guys are 22-24 years old. Maybe 1 or 2 more guys from that bunch hit their stride at 24 and become fringe bottom 6 guys. I was told Yzerman is a "great" drafting GM. Does that really define great? To me, he is slightly above average. But "Great"? No

Well you pass over 2019 because he got a top 2 player, and 2 top half of the line up players in that draft like I said. Getting that in a single draft is objectively very good early and late.

2020 sure, call it a bad draft. They still got a top 2 player in the draft out of it. Yeah, not great but no GM nails every draft.

2021 absolutely too early to say anything about. Say what you want about the approach but their 6th overall pick that year (who looks like another top 3 guy from the draft) literally only made the team this year. They look like they have 3 sure fire NHLers coming from that draft, with the level of player yet to be seen. Next year Mazur will be on the team full time as a 3rd round overager draft pick, that's a very good pick. They also have Cossa coming from that group who is a high end prospect. On top of all that Buium, Wallinder, Tuomisto and Savage still have potential NHL futures at different levels. This time last year you would be saying they got 2 players out of all those drafts, the number doubled in one season so lets pump the brakes a bit

So you can disagree with slow rolling some of these prospects, but you're harping on drafts that aren't close to being shut cases yet. It looks like Yzerman over 3 years is going to get ~7 legit NHL players, including 3 guys who would go top 3 in their draft at 4, 6 and 6. 7 legit NHLers, plus maybe a couple other bottom lineup guys and 3 top 3 players is absolutely good drafting

If you don't think Raymond goes 2nd in 2020, you're high.

Yep its ridiculous lol.

The guy who goes "1st" is going to be outscored by Raymond now in back to back years with a difference of ~20 goals over that time frame but saying Raymond would go second is controversial somehow...

 

[Pavels Dog]

I brought a comparable situation of a team drafting impact players with early picks (Agreed on Holtz being nothing great, he was traded for a bottom six player in Cotter), becuase you said find another team who have drafted impact platers from 2019-2021... Shakhir is a very solid young player, in fact I'd consider him to be above Johansson who was drafted earlier. So you have Kaspar > Mercer, Shakhir > Johansson Daws = Cossa, Hughes > Raymond, Hughes = Edvinsson, and Detroit has Seider. Detroit also had more picks in the drafts (31-26) and more top 100 selections (17 to 14). I'm saying that Yzerman is being lauded as this great drafting GM, while he has a record matched by New Jersey in a comparable situation, while NJ had less picks and fewer top 100 picks. But we dont hear how NJ's GM is is drafting guru

Because their drafting has been pretty bad. Jack Hughes was an automatic pick so why would he even be included as part of some drafting comparison? Detroit's drafting has been significantly better with significantly worse draft position (look at Kasper vs. Nemec as an example).

For some reason, you simply handwave away other teams drafting mistakes, but refuse to give credit to Yzerman where it's actually warranted.

Does average have to be a criticism? Kaspar is a young 3rd line player with second line upside at 7th overall - that's "fine"

Kasper is a 2nd line player all day. At worst. With 1st line upside. Saying differently is out of touch with reality.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Yeah I’ve gotten the sense that nothing is ever Yzerman’s fault. Larkin had to stick around because he’s a special talent. Hronek had to go because the timeline was five years later. Walman had to go because he’s an evil person.

Let’s say we trade Larkin.

Who the hell is our Andrew Copp is now once again our 2nd line C. Some variation of Fantilli/Carlsson are MAYBE our #1C

How in the hell is that supposed to help the Wings make the post season by now like all of your keep critiquing

 

[CowbellConray]

Let’s say we trade Larkin.

Who the hell is our Andrew Copp is now once again our 2nd line C. Some variation of Fantilli/Carlsson are MAYBE our #1C

How in the hell is that supposed to help the Wings make the post season by now like all of your keep critiquing

Yea it doesn’t make any sense for Detroit to trade Larkin. He is their only top 6 Center option on the roster for this season and maybe next as well

 

[CowbellConray]

Because their drafting has been pretty bad. Jack Hughes was an automatic pick so why would he even be included as part of some drafting comparison? Detroit's drafting has been significantly better with significantly worse draft position (look at Kasper vs. Nemec as an example).

For some reason, you simply handwave away other teams drafting mistakes, but refuse to give credit to Yzerman where it's actually warranted.


Kasper is a 2nd line player all day. At worst. With 1st line upside. Saying differently is out of touch with reality.

Kasper is not a second line center on the upper half of teams in the league. he may be playing second line for you all right now, but he isn’t over 90% of playoff teams second line center.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Kasper is not a second line center on the upper half of teams in the league. he may be playing second line for you all right now, but he isn’t over 90% of playoff teams second line center.

Nah he’s a second line C. Since January 1st when McLellan moved him from the 4th line to the top 6 he’s been a different player. 27 pts in 42 games driving his own line, 52pt pace over a season and playing exceptional defense during that run. It makes sense you wouldn’t think that if you didn’t watch wings games since his overall stat line isn’t great but it’s simply true.

He has a decent shot to be better than Larkin given his play this year. I honestly didn’t like the pick and wanted us to take Savoie but I couldn’t have been more wrong.

 

[CowbellConray]

For some reason, you simply handwave away other teams drafting mistakes, but refuse to give credit to Yzerman where it's actually warranted.

I could say the same for people who hand wave away the poor job he did after his first picks in 2019-2021, with the most picks out of any teams over that span. I’ll say he did a good job with his first picks in those drafts. He used 6th, 4th, 6th, and pulled out a top 3 player, a top 2 player, and a top 5 player. That’s good, full credit to him. As I’ve said before, the problem is if you draft one good player a year, and then miss on all of your other picks, it isn’t conducive to success.

If he lands two more top 6 or top 4 players, it sets him up well. But he didn’t do it. He drafted a bottom pair D in Johansson, and a bottom six player in Soderblum. Out of 31 selections.

The draft result is pretty much what the Sabres did from 2014-2018. Drafted great top end players with their first picks, but miss everywhere else, and they are 14 years without the playoffs

 

[CowbellConray]

Nah he’s a second line C. Since January 1st when McLellan moved him from the 4th line to the top 6 he’s been a different player. 27 pts in 42 games driving his own line, 52pt pace over a season and playing exceptional defense during that run. It makes sense you wouldn’t think that if you didn’t watch wings games since his overall stat line isn’t great but it’s simply true.

He has a decent shot to be better than Larkin given his play this year. I honestly didn’t like the pick and wanted us to take Savoie but I couldn’t have been more wrong.

What playoff teams start Kasper at second line center right now? Honestly Montreal and who else?

 

[RedHawkDown]

What playoff teams start Kasper at second line center right now? Honestly Montreal and who else?

not saying he’s better than the 2nd line Cs most teams have, so im not saying he’s replacing the guys other teams have like Byfield Schenn etc. But a 50 pt very strong defensive C is a 2C interchangeable with most other teams 2Cs. And he’s got potential to be better.

 

[PanniniClaus]

What playoff teams start Kasper at second line center right now? Honestly Montreal and who else?

Carolina, New Jersey and Winnipeg. You are severely under rating this player. He's just getting started.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Carolina, New Jersey and Winnipeg. You are severely under rating this player. He's just getting started.

I’m taking Hischier over Kasper.

 

[CowbellConray]

not saying he’s better than the 2nd line Cs most teams have, so im not saying he’s replacing the guys other teams have like Byfield Schenn etc. But a 50 pt very strong defensive C is a 2C interchangeable with most other teams 2Cs. And he’s got potential to be better.

So if we take Kaspers best stretch (which, it looks like he was actually pulled off center duties in January through February to get his offense going, he wasn’t taking draws and was playing with Larkin) he can maybe be interchanged with most teams second line center, but we can’t say he would play over any of the playoff teams second line centers.

Idk this feels like let’s try to shove Kasper into a role he really never hit to say he was a great pick. Reminds me of what we used to do with Mitts back in the day

 

[CowbellConray]

Carolina, New Jersey and Winnipeg. You are severely under rating this player. He's just getting started.

No way he plays over Nico in New Jersey. Staal and Lowry bring much more defensively, but I could potentially see those two. So we are 3/16 teams?

 

[PanniniClaus]

No way he plays over Nico in New Jersey. Staal and Lowry bring much more defensively, but I could potentially see those two. So we are 3/16 teams?

Nico is number 1 right now.

 

[PanniniClaus]

I’m taking Hischier over Kasper.

Hughes is gone so Kasper would be a massive upgrade.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hughes is gone so Kasper would be a massive upgrade.

He’ll never be back I guess then

 

[RedHawkDown]

So if we take Kaspers best stretch (which, it looks like he was actually pulled off center duties in January through February to get his offense going, he wasn’t taking draws and was playing with Larkin) he can maybe be interchanged with most teams second line center, but we can’t say he would play over any of the playoff teams second line centers.

Idk this feels like let’s try to shove Kasper into a role he really never hit to say he was a great pick. Reminds me of what we used to do with Mitts back in the day

He’s a 21 years old rookie. to say he “really never hit” a role when he’s jsut breaking into the league as a rookie is asinine. If he’s like this two years from now sure.

It’s like saying Hutson wouldn’t dethrone many of the other teams 1D because he’s a rookie and hasn’t necessarily shown that level for a few years, and so therefore he’s not actually a 1D going forward. It’s an absurd argument.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nah he’s a second line C. Since January 1st when McLellan moved him from the 4th line to the top 6 he’s been a different player. 27 pts in 42 games driving his own line, 52pt pace over a season and playing exceptional defense during that run. It makes sense you wouldn’t think that if you didn’t watch wings games since his overall stat line isn’t great but it’s simply true.

He has a decent shot to be better than Larkin given his play this year. I honestly didn’t like the pick and wanted us to take Savoie but I couldn’t have been more wrong.

Well he wasn’t even playing centre then, he was with Larkin and Raymond then I thought.
Recently went back to centre.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Well he wasn’t even playing centre then, he was with Larkin and Raymond then I thought.
Recently went back to centre.

Yeah he was with them to start and was key to their production. Since being put on his own line their production has gone down a lot. He’s been a rock solid 2C for about 1.5 months. I’m not pretending he’s proven that’s the case long term yet but there’s no reason to believe he can’t keep it up, just like with any young player proving themselves as a rookie. Ie Hutson and many others

 

[nbwingsfan]

Kasper is not a second line center on the upper half of teams in the league. he may be playing second line for you all right now, but he isn’t over 90% of playoff teams second line center.

At this exact moment no. But he played at like a 50pt pace once taken off the 4th line when Lalonde was fired as a 20yo

Could easily see him getting in the 55-65pt range next season, which is pretty good 2C numbers

 

[Czechboy]

Monster game from Kasper. Top 3 rookie in the league 2nd half of the season imo.

Feels like you're making a big deal out of 1 game? No?

Top 3 ahead of who? This is second half of season? Don't forget about Wolf too.