Detroit Redwings Downfall

[CowbellConray]

1. Kasper was picked 8th, and getting a 2nd line C at 8 is a great pick.

2. Cossa is rated the 4th best goalie prospect in the world. Again, if that’s just a questionable pick then what does that make every other goalie prospect?

3. ASP is literally a top 10 prospect in the world on the rankings. You think that’s still a questionable pick at 17. If your definition of a good prospect is someone who’s established themselves in the NHL, the apparently players like Demidov are just questionable, right? Michkov was a questionable pick before this season? ASP is literally setting records in the SHL and the was the first D in like 20 years to win back to back top WJC D awards. But sure, that’s an average pick

4. You’re basing your definition of Danielsons pick on your own personal feelings. None of the players you listed that you think are better picks have done anything better than what you project Danielson to be. That’s like me saying I think Montreal has been terrible at drafting because I feel like MBN is a better pick than Demidov. It’s not actual reality yet.

5. This is going to be absolutely hilarious to revisit.

1) 8th overall picks since 2022:
Kasper: Potential 2nd line player
Clarke: Potential top 4 D
Quinn: Potential 2nd line player
Broberg: Top 4 D (potential top pair)
Boqvist: Waiver D (Injuries killed his development, but an offensive D from Sweden who was undersized top 10 prospect in the world? Hmmm might be ASP but hey, my opinions are dumb) -EDIT: this is a joke btw, just having a little fun
Casey Mitts: Middle six C
Alex Nylander: Bust
Werenski: #1 D
Nylander: Top line wing

So Kasper, if he becomes a second line center, is actually quite an average pick for 8th overall from the past 10 years. He is below Nylander, Werenski, along Mitts, Broberg, Clarke, slightly above Quinn, and above Alex Nylander, Boqvist. So pretty much dead average

2) Cossa is a good goalie prospect. He has traits. He isn't a "Great" pick because he is having a decent AHL season. I think he is a fine pick. Again, I said his mid first picks were average. Kasper was average (see above). Cossa is average, and ASP fine, I'll call him above average just for you.

3) You put up the poll between Danielson and Benson and let's see where that goes. Benson is already putting up middle six production with incredible possession stats and two way play. Daniel carries better projectables but again, I consider Danielson an average to slightly below average 9th overall pick.

Again, this all came up because Detroit fans were slamming this idea that Yzerman is a GREAT draft mind. I pointed out that from 2019-2021 he did really well at the top of the draft, and whiffed everywhere else, and 2022-2023 (2024 is so fresh) his picks have been average for their draft position. So if 3 great picks, 25 whiffs, and an average 2022-2023 makes him GREAT, we have about 12 other GREAT GMs at drafting.

What's the data to show Yzerman is GREAT at drafting? What in his track record shows he consistently outperforms draft positions throughout the 7 rounds over the last half decade. And remember, he has drafted in the top 15 EVERY year he has been GM. So he already gets a benefit over teams who make the playoffs consistently

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes. You didn't watch the team. We did. Seider especially was the only reason the team wasn't dead last. Hardest deployment in the entire NHL and held his own in it. Any other defensemen on the team playing his role (ie, if he wasn't there), we would have been scored on much, much more.

you have zero understanding of the wings yet keep posting in here with the same completely uninformed tankes. its incredible really

That’s wild that two years ago Seider and Raymond were such superstars that they were responsible for dragging an otherwise tank team around them being 21 points better than the tank teams (there’s no empirical basis for this claim) and then despite being better players two years later (very supported empirically) the team is at the exact same spot even as they continue to add more wildly successful Yzerman draft picks and externally with players like DeBrincat and Kane. Almost like you might be making stuff up to avoid coming to grips with some of the sobering realities that the Wings rebuild is in serious jeopardy of stalling out.

 

[nbwingsfan]

That’s wild that two years ago Seider and Raymond were such superstars that they were responsible for dragging an otherwise tank team around them being 21 points better than the tank teams (there’s no empirical basis for this claim) and then despite being better players two years later (very supported empirically) the team is at the exact same spot even as they continue to add more wildly successful Yzerman draft picks and externally with players like DeBrincat and Kane. Almost like you might be making stuff up to avoid coming to grips with some of the sobering realities that the Wings rebuild is in serious jeopardy of stalling out.

You consistently (and correctly) accuse Yzerman of having g terrible UFA signings while at the same time think removing Copp, Chiarot and Justin Holl would make us drop 20pts?

It’s truly hilarious.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You consistently (and correctly) accuse Yzerman of having g terrible UFA signings while at the same time think removing Copp, Chiarot and Justin Holl would make us drop 20pts?

It’s truly hilarious.

Really not sure what's hard to follow. Yzerman signed some dudes to get Seider and Raymond into the Playoffs and instead got them into No Man's Land.

1) Free agents like Copp were at their best immediately following being signed, when they were in their primes, Copp turned 28 like one week before signing with Detroit
2) As the years go by, their stature amongst the NHL dips as they hit their 30s.
3) The Wings lean heavier on their "vets" back a couple years ago when the "vets" are more decent (as a collective), lean more on the "kids" as the vets take a step back and the "kids" get older.
4) Instead of playoff-ready vets passing the torch to playoff-ready "kids" as Yzerman likely hoped and in some callback to the mid-2000s Red Wings, it's more so a bit short of playoff ready vets pass the torch to just short of playoff ready "kids", creating a mediocrity treadmill
5) Sit around and "wait for the kids" while pretending everything has been going to plan while a couple of top 4 20-something year old defensemen from two years ago were dealt away because one was traded to account for some further off future timeline (hey btw, the 1C is about to be 29 and not getting younger) and another is apparently a psychopath team cancer that returned the team he got dumped to a 1st round pick

 

[KJoe88]

lol this thread

 

[nbwingsfan]

Really not sure what's hard to follow. Yzerman signed some dudes to get Seider and Raymond into the Playoffs and instead got them into No Man's Land.

1) Free agents like Copp were at their best immediately following being signed, when they were in their primes, Copp turned 28 like one week before signing with Detroit
2) As the years go by, their stature amongst the NHL dips as they hit their 30s.
3) The Wings lean heavier on their "vets" back a couple years ago when the "vets" are more decent (as a collective), lean more on the "kids" as the vets take a step back and the "kids" get older.
4) Instead of playoff-ready vets passing the torch to playoff-ready "kids" as Yzerman likely hoped and in some callback to the mid-2000s Red Wings, it's more so a bit short of playoff ready vets pass the torch to just short of playoff ready "kids", creating a mediocrity treadmill
5) Sit around and "wait for the kids" while pretending everything has been going to plan while a couple of top 4 20-something year old defensemen from two years ago were dealt away because one was traded to account for some further off future timeline (hey btw, the 1C is about to be 29 and not getting younger) and another is apparently a psychopath team cancer that returned the team he got dumped to a 1st round pick

The 1st point you made entirely discredits anything you said afterwards and shows you never actually watched the Wings play. The best Chiarot has even been with us was last season. The best Copp has been for us is hands down this season. Justin Holl has sucked for every single game he has played for us except that one time he got 3A.

There was once again no scenario where we were going to be as bad as Chicago in 2022/23 and it’s laughable to think the UFA signing we made gained us 20pts

 

[WarriorofTime]

The 1st point you made entirely discredits anything you said afterwards

Stop discussing in bad faith. If you have a broader point as to the actual reason to (I) why the Wings are in the same spot as they were two years and (II) why this is a good thing, please, by all means, give your opinion.

I don’t doubt you watch more wings games than me. I also don’t doubt that you have more of a bias involved in the discussion.

 

[theVladiator]

1) 8th overall picks since 2022:
Kasper: Potential 2nd line player
Clarke: Potential top 4 D
Quinn: Potential 2nd line player
Broberg: Top 4 D (potential top pair)
Boqvist: Waiver D (Injuries killed his development, but an offensive D from Sweden who was undersized top 10 prospect in the world? Hmmm might be ASP but hey, my opinions are dumb) -EDIT: this is a joke btw, just having a little fun
Casey Mitts: Middle six C
Alex Nylander: Bust
Werenski: #1 D
Nylander: Top line wing

I think you attempt at evaluation is not sufficiently thorough.

First of all, 10 years = 10 samples is fairly small sample size. Going to sample size of 20, the picture is, shall we say, a bit different. I chose to split the picks into 5 categories (Much better, Better, Par, Worse, Much worse). This is what I get:

(2) Z. Werenski, W. Nylander

(1) S. Couturier,

(3) M. Kasper, B. Clarke, P. Broberg

(7) J. Quinn, C. Mittlestadt, R. Ristolainen, M. Boedker, P. Mueller, D. Setoguchi, B. Coburn

(7) A. Boqvist, A. Nylander, D. Pouliot, A. Burmistrov, S. Glennie, Z. Hamill, A. Picard

Which puts Kasper into 70% to 85% percentile band for this pick position. Your player evaluations may differ, but I think you would end up with Kasper coming out above average regardless.

Secondly, in your approach you do not account for variations in the draft quality. I think this boils down to other choices available at that spot, and Wings had other sexy options to pick there. Those guys were hot commodity at the draft and Wings caught some flak for picking a "bland", "high floor, low ceiling" guy and passing them over. DRW seem to have picked the right guy over those that seemed quite attractive, high offensive potential guys at the time gives them credit as well, and some credit is due for that.

 

[CowbellConray]

I think you attempt at evaluation is not sufficiently thorough.

First of all, 10 years = 10 samples is fairly small sample size. Going to sample size of 20, the picture is, shall we say, a bit different. I chose to split the picks into 5 categories (Much better, Better, Par, Worse, Much worse). This is what I get:

(2) Z. Werenski, W. Nylander

(1) S. Couturier,

(3) M. Kasper, B. Clarke, P. Broberg

(7) J. Quinn, C. Mittlestadt, R. Ristolainen, M. Boedker, P. Mueller, D. Setoguchi, B. Coburn

(7) A. Boqvist, A. Nylander, D. Pouliot, A. Burmistrov, S. Glennie, Z. Hamill, A. Picard

Which puts Kasper into 70% to 85% percentile band for this pick position. Your player evaluations may differ, but I think you would end up with Kasper coming out above average regardless.

Secondly, in your approach you do not account for variations in the draft quality. I think this boils down to other choices available at that spot, and Wings had other sexy options to pick there. Those guys were hot commodity at the draft and Wings caught some flak for picking a "bland", "high floor, low ceiling" guy and passing them over. DRW seem to have picked the right guy over those that seemed quite attractive, high offensive potential guys at the time gives them credit as well, and some credit is due for that.

10 years points back to the time when scouting and NHL draft efficiency has been at its best. Video scouting wasn’t a consistent thing until the early 2010s, and enhanced scouting departments with pro scouting personnel really expended around 2011. Using drafting strategies from even 15 years ago is very outdated, and it’s why you see more busts in the late 2000s

10 years is sufficient enough given the matters of scouting technology and techniques have stayed consistent during that time.

Regarding class strength and situations, of course there is a more complex analysis here. Frankly, too many Detroit fans are being too simplistic in their analysis of their GM by just saying “well, he picked really good players at the top of 2019, 2020, and 2021, so he is a great drafter”. Take into account full classes, volume of picks available, and situations of development to obtain the full picture.

For me, I’ve stayed consistent that I analyze a player against their peers in the class and the GMs against the situations other GMs have been in during the same tenure. Someone said to me getting a second line center at 8th overall is “great”. From my view of who was selected over the last ten drafts, second line of second pairing seems very common.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Stop discussing in bad faith. If you have a broader point as to the actual reason to (I) why the Wings are in the same spot as they were two years and (II) why this is a good thing, please, by all means, give your opinion.

I don’t doubt you watch more wings games than me. I also don’t doubt that you have more of a bias involved in the discussion.

Bro you’re the one completely making things up and you’re telling me that I’m arguing in “bad faith”

 

[WarriorofTime]

Bro you’re the one completely making things up

Nope

 

[nbwingsfan]

Nope

You said all of Chiarot, Copp and Holl had their best seasons with us the first year we signed them. That is simply false.

To answer your questions:

Yzerman started with nothing so this was always going to take a long time

There were no franchise altering players (Makar, MacKinnon, Matthews, McDvaid, Drai, etc) in any of the drafts we were bad enough in.

No matter how you slice it, we were never going to be as bad as Chicago, who the are looking at their own 7+ year rebuild despite being gifted one of the best prospects in a long time

Yzerman has not made good UFA signings, but has also avoided crippling bad ones as well

Next season is where the pressure is really on. Kasper will hopefully solve the 2C problem. ASP should hopefully solve the 2RD problem (think Hutson lite). He has money and draft capital to solve the other issues.

If he doesn’t make the post season next year then he should be gone.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If you don't think Raymond goes 2nd in 2020, you're high.

1) 8th overall picks since 2022:
Kasper: Potential 2nd line player
Clarke: Potential top 4 D
Quinn: Potential 2nd line player
Broberg: Top 4 D (potential top pair)
Boqvist: Waiver D (Injuries killed his development, but an offensive D from Sweden who was undersized top 10 prospect in the world? Hmmm might be ASP but hey, my opinions are dumb) -EDIT: this is a joke btw, just having a little fun
Casey Mitts: Middle six C
Alex Nylander: Bust
Werenski: #1 D
Nylander: Top line wing

So Kasper, if he becomes a second line center, is actually quite an average pick for 8th overall from the past 10 years. He is below Nylander, Werenski, along Mitts, Broberg, Clarke, slightly above Quinn, and above Alex Nylander, Boqvist. So pretty much dead average

2) Cossa is a good goalie prospect. He has traits. He isn't a "Great" pick because he is having a decent AHL season. I think he is a fine pick. Again, I said his mid first picks were average. Kasper was average (see above). Cossa is average, and ASP fine, I'll call him above average just for you.

3) You put up the poll between Danielson and Benson and let's see where that goes. Benson is already putting up middle six production with incredible possession stats and two way play. Daniel carries better projectables but again, I consider Danielson an average to slightly below average 9th overall pick.

Again, this all came up because Detroit fans were slamming this idea that Yzerman is a GREAT draft mind. I pointed out that from 2019-2021 he did really well at the top of the draft, and whiffed everywhere else, and 2022-2023 (2024 is so fresh) his picks have been average for their draft position. So if 3 great picks, 25 whiffs, and an average 2022-2023 makes him GREAT, we have about 12 other GREAT GMs at drafting.

What's the data to show Yzerman is GREAT at drafting? What in his track record shows he consistently outperforms draft positions throughout the 7 rounds over the last half decade. And remember, he has drafted in the top 15 EVERY year he has been GM. So he already gets a benefit over teams who make the playoffs consistently

Asp is a better puck mover than Boqvist so I think he'll succeed, but maybe not nearly as much as his SHL stats say.

 

[Fatass]

You said all of Chiarot, Copp and Holl had their best seasons with us the first year we signed them. That is simply false.

To answer your questions:

Yzerman started with nothing so this was always going to take a long time

There were no franchise altering players (Makar, MacKinnon, Matthews, McDvaid, Drai, etc) in any of the drafts we were bad enough in.

No matter how you slice it, we were never going to be as bad as Chicago, who the are looking at their own 7+ year rebuild despite being gifted one of the best prospects in a long time

Yzerman has not made good UFA signings, but has also avoided crippling bad ones as well

Next season is where the pressure is really on. Kasper will hopefully solve the 2C problem. ASP should hopefully solve the 2RD problem (think Hutson lite). He has money and draft capital to solve the other issues.

If he doesn’t make the post season next year then he should be gone.

Wings don’t have a 2C problem. They have a 1C problem and a 1 D problem. ASP might get solve the 1D.

 

[WarriorofTime]

There were no franchise altering players (Makar, MacKinnon, Matthews, McDvaid, Drai, etc) in any of the drafts we were bad enough in.

No matter how you slice it, we were never going to be as bad as Chicago,

Sounds like an Yzerman problem that he stopped tanking without getting a franchise altering player as you stated despite a decade of darkness…

 

[nbwingsfan]

Wings don’t have a 2C problem. They have a 1C problem and a 1 D problem. ASP might get solve the 1D.

You keep talking about Seider as not being a 1D and it’s completely false lol.

Him and Ed will be one of the top pairings in the NHL in a year or two.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Sounds like an Yzerman problem that he stopped tanking without getting a franchise altering player as you stated despite a decade of darkness…

For about the 4th time now, we were never going to be bad enough to get into the bottom 3 in 2022-23 without purging the good players we already have.

It’s not his fault these players didn’t exist in 2019-21

 

[WarriorofTime]

For about the 4th time now, we were never going to be bad enough to get into the bottom 3 in 2022-23 without purging the good players we already have.

It’s not his fault these players didn’t exist in 2019-21

Yeah I’ve gotten the sense that nothing is ever Yzerman’s fault. Larkin had to stick around because he’s a special talent. Hronek had to go because the timeline was five years later. Walman had to go because he’s an evil person.

 

[JungleBeat]

Raymond is a dawg. Get him some better players.

 

[Mr Nogatco]

Just an FYI, MI has a flat state tax of 4.25%. Mind you, home game tax rates only apply to games played at home.

To say nothing of the massive advantage Michigan enjoys in bottle deposit return rates

 

[RedHawkDown]

That’s wild that two years ago Seider and Raymond were such superstars that they were responsible for dragging an otherwise tank team around them being 21 points better than the tank teams (there’s no empirical basis for this claim) and then despite being better players two years later (very supported empirically) the team is at the exact same spot even as they continue to add more wildly successful Yzerman draft picks and externally with players like DeBrincat and Kane. Almost like you might be making stuff up to avoid coming to grips with some of the sobering realities that the Wings rebuild is in serious jeopardy of stalling out.

I’m amazed that you posted this and don’t even understand what you posted. Yes, exactly. Seider and Raymond were the main reasons for the team being not at the basement two years ago, and now that they’re better, the team is slightly better, but not as bad, because they got better. The free agents are irrelevant. The teams success is directly correlated to their ability because Yzerman has not added any other useful talent other than Debrincat, who just replaced the contributions of guys like Bertuzzi in his prime.

Edvinsson replaced the contributions of Walman and the hope is he has the potential to get much better. Hronek has not been replaced yet. These things are self evident and are clear reasons the team hasn’t taken the next step. You are so wildly off base that it’s incredible you even wrote a whole post that actually explains the point you’re arguing against and still can’t even see that.

Also for the 100th time, I have zero delusions about the Wings rebuild. I’ve never even said once that Yzerman is a good GM. I’m a Yzerman hater on our board and think he’s done a shit job overall and should be fired if we don’t make the playoffs next year. However, his drafting is not at all part of that shit job, and isn’t even remotely the issue in Detroit. The top end drafting has been great. You just have zero clue what the actual issues are despite being told 100 times.

 

[cjm502]

To say nothing of the massive advantage Michigan enjoys in bottle deposit return rates

Absolute disrespect, 10c/ea is elite numbers. Anyone that isn't aware of the long list of players who have chosen Detroit as their home due to this massive advantage cant call themselves a real hockey fan.

 

[koyvoo]

This thread is a psychotherapist’s wet dream

 

[Czechboy]

This thread is a psychotherapist’s wet dream

I check it daily. Best thread on HF AINEC. Ironically, there is a great Latvia U18 one too. Two posters are just going at it about Latvia and Slovakia.lol

 

[Frobbo]

Seider was the first part of the rebuild. Because of this his profile looms large and emotional for many. I watched a lot of RW games down the stretch and didn't see a great #1D. I saw many mistakes, especially for someone who has played as many games as he has at this point. I know his usage has been tough but that is what #1D's usually face. Fans here expect to see a bunch more growth but maybe this is what he is. Maybe a better partner will bring more out of him but when I watch him I see Barret Jackman. No, they aren't anything alike as players except what they were as rookies was pretty much what they ever were.