Detroit Redwings Downfall

[Reality Check]

if wings fans see Dotter as the rest of the forums, they should call him out for it, in here then.

We're all still waiting for Ottawa fans to call out Jimmy Apples.

Unless that fool got banned again.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I just did that. I've done it earlier too. I called him and others out for saying Hutson is anything less than elite in the Habs vs Wings thread.

Would be nice if some posters could respond in-kind by being at least somewhat reasonable the other way around...instead of just constantly parroting that Detroit sucks and there are zero elite players and all the prospects suck and therefore everything must restart.

Yes you’ve been the only one, and this isn’t the first time, for you, well done.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yes, they sold picks for players that could actually help them win hockey games, instead of wallowing in the basement with the other losers. They used the picks to acquire Debrincat (which led to Ullmark) and Chychrun (who became Jensen). The picks they traded were used to draft Kevin Korchinski and Daniil But. I don't think Sens fans are losing sleep over that.

Well that's how selling futures works. Short term satisfaction at the risk of long-term pain.
In a long-term outlook, trading a top 12 pick+two 2nds for a 34 year old depth defenseman looks awful. I think we can acknowledge some weak asset management despite a team making the playoffs, just like we can criticize Yzerman for not being more aggressive without thinking he should have traded Kasper and Sandin-Pellikka for 30+ year olds.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

That...wasn't the point at all. This thread is truly incredible at this point.
The point was that Ottawa traded away two firsts in '22 and '23 and drafted a bust in 2021. If they didn't do that, they could have 3 great prospects coming to make the team even better than they are, and take them into that contender level. Instead, they will have to hope they can get continued growth from the guys on the roster now to be the only thing that takes them to that next level, or a big free-agent signing. That's definitely possible, it's just not ideal.

The "point" is that instead of wallowing in the rebuild phase with the other perpetual losers, Ottawa put their big-boy pants on and traded their overvalued 1st rounders for players they could actually use. Here's the bitter pill that Wings fans will eventually have to swallow, like every fan of a rebuilding team: "great prospects" (let's say, players picked in the first round) usually yield middling players. Cost-controlled middling players, so that's better than nothing, but still. If you're not lucky enough to get a Crosby or a McDavid, the draft alone likely won't make your team into a contender; it'll just pull your team into the mushy middle with all the other mediocrities. Instead of using their picks to get their middling players in 5 years, Ottawa used those picks to get players that could help them now (Chychrun, Debrincat). And while these players were pretty bad fits for their team, they were eventually traded for players that were better fits (Jensen, Ullmark). So that now, even though those trades weren't even particularly good, Ottawa is a significantly better team for having done them, instead of actually using those picks, and waiting eternally for those "great prospects" to improve the team. Who was picked with those picks Ottawa traded away? Kevin Korchinski and Daniil But. How much "help" are these guys for their respective team? Will they even make the league next year?

As for Boucher, he was just a terrible pick. But busts aren't that unusual in that range. Something that Yzerman intimately knows, since he drafted Slater Koekkoek in the exact same spot.

I really don't even get the point of this thread anymore. It feels like it's been going in circles for 30+ pages. We clearly don't feel our rebuild is totally doomed and are excited about our prospects, and we need Yzerman to be better in pro scouting (UFA and trades) to supplement these prospects that we are excited about. We think there is still lots of hope with the rebuild if Yzerman can make the kinds of moves he did in Tampa Bay in UFA/trades when he felt the core was coming together. We get it - you all disagree and think all our prospects suck and won't be any good, and the team is screwed and will need to rebuild.

Wtf are we even discussing in here anymore? Clearly you are never going to convince us Red wings fans that all our prospects are failures. We are the ones that watch them and we see some special players. It's been 152 pages of the same talking to a brick wall from both sides.

There is literally zero actual discussion going on in here. It's just random teams fans calling Red Wings fans delusional, us trying to respond, and being told we're delusional again. OK, that's fine, you guys think our opinions on our prospects are delusional.

Where does that go next? This thread should be closed down by mods at this point.

I agree; aside from a couple special cases (notably Dotter and deca guard, who, frankly, are half the reason this thread is still going), I don't think Wings fans are any more delusional than all the other fans of bad teams who grossly overrate their prospects. There's really no reason for this thread to continue. If it was, say, Guerin or Bill Armstrong doing that wholly-unremarkable rebuild instead of Yzerman, nobody would even notice it, and this thread wouldn't even exist.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The "point" is that instead of wallowing in the rebuild phase with the other perpetual losers, Ottawa put their big-boy pants on and traded their overvalued 1st rounders for players they could actually use. Here's the bitter pill that Wings fans will eventually have to swallow, like every fan of a rebuilding team: "great prospects" (let's say, players picked in the first round) usually yield middling players. Cost-controlled middling players, so that's better than nothing, but still. If you're not lucky enough to get a Crosby or a McDavid, the draft alone likely won't make your team into a contender; it'll just pull your team into the mushy middle with all the other mediocrities. Instead of using their picks to get their middling players in 5 years, Ottawa used those picks to get players that could help them now (Chychrun, Debrincat). And while these players were pretty bad fits for their team, they were eventually traded for players that were better fits (Jensen, Ullmark). So that now, even though those trades weren't even particularly good, Ottawa is a significantly better team for having done them, instead of actually using those picks, and waiting eternally for those "great prospects" to improve the team. Who was picked with those picks Ottawa traded away? Kevin Korchinski and Daniil But. How much "help" are these guys for their respective team? Will they even make the league next year?

As for Boucher, he was just a terrible pick. But busts aren't that unusual in that range. Something that Yzerman intimately knows, since he drafted Slater Koekkoek in the exact same spot.



I agree; aside from a couple special cases (notably Dotter and deca guard, who, frankly, are half the reason this thread is still going), I don't think Wings fans are any more delusional than all the other fans of bad teams who grossly overrate their prospects. There's really no reason for this thread to continue. If it was, say, Guerin or Bill Armstrong doing that wholly-unremarkable rebuild instead of Yzerman, nobody would even notice it, and this thread wouldn't even exist.

Ya eventually, you have to make some moves, after 9 years of missing, or you end up like Buffalo.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Here's the bitter pill that Wings fans will eventually have to swallow, like every fan of a rebuilding team: "great prospects" (let's say, players picked in the first round) usually yield middling players.

The draft usually yields middling players so you should always trade your 1st rounders for Nick Jensen caliber players is one heck of an argument.

 

[Czechboy]

Good thing Kasper is trending closer to "Larkin" than "Copp".


Yes, so much better.

Since January 1st, goals:

Kasper - 14
Tarasenko - 6
Compher - 5
Copp - 3

I'll do the math for you - Kasper has as many goals as Tarasenko/Compher/Copp combined in that stretch of games.

There's also other areas, like Kasper's actual play and how much he brings beyond scoring.

Hits (full season):

Kasper - 147
Tarasenko - 60
Compher - 27
Copp - 9

I'll do the math again - Kasper has more hits than Tarasenko/Compher/Copp combined. As a rookie.


That trio is fairly similar. I think Ottawa's players are just slightly older, more established, and they've gone all-in towards making the playoffs by selling off the future. Different strategies of rebuilding and it makes sense that Ottawa's more effective in the short-term.

Why only use half his season for points and his full season for hits?

I appreciate the explanation but I already said everyone is using his heater from when the coach bump happened. It's an 82 game season. The coach also gave him less minutes last night in a huge game.. under 15 minutes for a 2c? A lot of 3Cs get that.

But, I do think he is trending in the right direction. I do think he should have a good season next year. Assuming sophomore slump doesn't happen.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The draft usually yields middling players so you should always trade your 1st rounders for Nick Jensen caliber players is one heck of an argument.

Jensen leads the team 5 on 5, with a +19, he’s been a good addition, and has now balanced the D, other than isn’t practicing last few months because of an injury.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Why only use half his season for points and his full season for hits?

I appreciate the explanation but I already said everyone is using his heater from when the coach bump happened. It's an 82 game season. The coach also gave him less minutes last night in a huge game.. under 15 minutes for a 2c? A lot of 3Cs get that.

Kinda funny to talk sample size while you're making a big deal out of his icetime in 1 game out of an 82 game schedule.

No, it wasn't just a heater. He's been consistent even when the team and guys like Larkin and Raymond have slumped. Post 4-nations break he's ahead of Larkin and Raymond in goals.

First half of the season, under Lalonde, he had some of the worst puck luck in the NHL (look up his PDO) and was often stuck with players who weren't doing anything offensively. His production in the second half is more relevant to look at since he's had "normal" puck luck and has been playing with decent talent.
Hits you can look at any sample size.

Jensen leads the team 5 on 5, with a +19, he’s been a good addition, and has now balanced the D, other than isn’t practicing last few months because of an injury.

I'm not discounting that he's been a good add, I'm only questioning the long-term decision.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

The draft usually yields middling players so you should always trade your 1st rounders for Nick Jensen caliber players is one heck of an argument.

I think you'd be shocked at how many teams would trade their first rounder for Nick Jensen. He's an RD who can competently play top-4 minutes; might as well be made of gold. Every contender with a hole at RD (which is to say, most contenders) would gladly give away their 1st (and likely more) to have Nick Jensen cheaply-signed for a couple years.

 

[Czechboy]

Kinda funny to talk sample size while you're making a big deal out of his icetime in 1 game out of an 82 game schedule.

I didn realize I was making a big deal out of 1 game? Just pointing out the coach is not giving him important minutes when it mattered most despite a better second half.

His season total toi is the same. About 15 toi over his entire career. That's not a 2C toi.

You broke down 75 games roughly into 3 sections. Lalonde , koala and post 4 nations. And are telling me his production in one of those sections is more relevant? And that he outscored Larkin and raymond in one of those 3 splits. These are pace arguments and small sample sizes. Except for hits. You got a full season of those so it is okay to use the whole season

 

[FMichael]

What the hell happened? They hired McLellan and were on a tear.

My opinion?

Upon arrival McLellan let the guys play - do their own thing - what ya got to lose?

After the 4 Nations Tournament - a system was implemented since the playoffs were within sight...And Now they're playing like crap - again.

 

[JianYang]

My opinion?

Upon arrival McLellan let the guys play - do their own thing - what ya got to lose?

After the 4 Nations Tournament - a system was implemented since the playoffs were within sight...And Now they're playing like crap - again.

I think other teams in that playoff bubble had some pretty massive ups and downs too.

If we look at the records at 4 nations break compared to today, it's pretty crazy how different thing are.

Rangers also made a big push at one point after they stopped their free fall.

Montreal started the season 4-9-2, and had another slide of 1-7-1 prior to the 4 nations. That break may have saved their season.

Columbus has been in free fall for a few weeks now.

 

[SirKillalot]

The Wings have missed every year under Yzerman. Can’t win the Cup that way.

Wasn't speaking about the Wings, but about the Senators. Who aren't seen as among the good teams. A highly unstable one. But yeah, they "got a chance".

You know you have to make the playoffs to have a chance at the Cup, right?

You know you have to build a more solid team, to win the cup right?

And you know in order to have success in the playoffs, young foundational players need to experience the realities of playoff hockey and aren't going to go all the way in their first few playoff trips, right?

Ah the traditional view of no teams can do well without going through years and years of 1st round exits.
Well given that you comment on every goddamn post as still to this point haven't picked up on that no one has said any teams going to go all the way in their first few playoff trips is amazing.

They're in the playoffs. Detroit isn't. They may not be "Cup contenders", but at least they're going to have a chance at it.

Again, I really don't know where your idea that the Red Wings are automatically going to be guaranteed long-term playoff contention and success based on prospects whom we have no idea will be good at the NHL level is coming from.

Yes, an "Islanders-chance". Most important of all is to "get a chance" and not build a team that can go places. Looking forward to next year for the Senators to "get another chance".

Again, no one saying guaranteed long term playoff contention. But, if you build "at least they got a chance team" they surely won't be having long term playoff contentions.

But you build based on a plan, if you don't believe in the plan then what are you doing here. Like all teams have done with young players, they believed that if one build a team with this and that players they try to foresee where they will be in 2-4 years. Just as Penguins, Blackhawks, Lightning etc done in the past. You have to believe you can have success with those you drafted to be able to potentially win in the future. Otherwise all those teams and more would have traded their players back then for other assets.

Who's going to save Detroit? Nate Danielson and his 11 goals in 65 AHL games? Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and his 5 goals in 42 games in the SHL?

Yes. Just like tons of players in 1st year on junior teams have meh to mediocre seasons, and build their skills and play the next 3 years, surprise surprise players who went to the NHL were all nobodies before they became somebodies. Kucherov was also a nobody before he wasn't. Same with Point. Same with many players. Many times the stats today isn't reflective of what players become, because there are underlying factors and other things they develop during those times in the process. Points or goals as young players playing more experienced opponents in tougher leagues. You can go and find tons of these examples, I bet you will be surprised when you see the stats of many current stars from their time around those ages and similar leagues and levels.

Yzerman has made horrific free agent signings and generally poor trades outside of the one Debrincat move.

No he has not. Its quite commonly known that he won or equalled almost all of his trades besides some baffling ones. He just haven't done many bigger trades with higher profile players coming in. Several gone out, and then been some developmental trades of getting some experience in, which later got traded out for same or more value when their "work was done" within this team.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

You know you have to build a more solid team, to win the cup right?

Yzerman hasn't even been able to build a solid enough team to make the playoffs in a League where literally half of the clubs make it in. He's about to end Year 6. Any other GM in Detroit not named Yzerman would have been fired by now.

Ah the traditional view of no teams can do well without going through years and years of 1st round exits.

It's the traditional view because it's literal common sense. No team with ultra-rare exception wins the Cup in their first foray into the playoffs.

Well given that you comment on every goddamn post as still to this point haven't picked up on that no one has said any teams going to go all the way in their first few playoff trips is amazing.

I'll comment on as many posts as I wish to. You're free to try and disprove anything I've said. If you actually manage to, it would be the first time.

But you build based on a plan, if you don't believe in the plan then what are you doing here.

I'm a fan of the team and I'm allowed to criticize what has been a woefully underwhelming product spearheaded by the supposed best GM in hockey. I don't believe in his plan. His plan is zero urgency, zero playoff spots in 6 years, zero direction, and zero killer instinct.

Yes. Just like tons of players in 1st year on junior teams have meh to mediocre seasons, and build their skills and play the next 3 years, surprise surprise players who went to the NHL were all nobodies before they became somebodies. Kucherov was also a nobody before he wasn't. Same with Point.

In addition to this being 100% pure hopium, I hope you realize that Nate Danielson and Nygard are in zero way, shape or form the next Kucherov and Point.

ASP has the chance to be something special. There is literally nothing special about any other of Detroit's prospects, which are nothing but job security for Yzerman to cover for his abysmal free agent moves.

No he has not.

Um, yes, he has. Tarasenko has been awful. Gustafsson has been awful. Holl has been downright abysmal. Compher and Copp have been underwhelming in their performance compared to their contract length and AAV.

 

[DamonDRW]

how is that even possible exchanging multiple A4 pages opinions on the matter that has nothing to discuss?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think you'd be shocked at how many teams would trade their first rounder for Nick Jensen. He's an RD who can competently play top-4 minutes; might as well be made of gold. Every contender with a hole at RD (which is to say, most contenders) would gladly give away their 1st (and likely more) to have Nick Jensen cheaply-signed for a couple years.

I think you're wrong, but that's okay, we can have different opinions.
Bottom line is the argument is obviously flawed from your side. Most teams build their foundation through the draft, and most teams need BOTH trades/FA and promotions internally to round out their depth.

Side note: what does the moves contenders would be willing to make have to do with what Ottawa/Detroit should do?

I didn realize I was making a big deal out of 1 game? Just pointing out the coach is not giving him important minutes when it mattered most despite a better second half.

His season total toi is the same. About 15 toi over his entire career. That's not a 2C toi.

His icetime has been trending up. 65th in EV TOI/GP since January 1st, 45th since February 1st (among centers). Only Detroit center ahead of him in icetime since January 1st is Larkin. That's 2C type of minutes.

You broke down 75 games roughly into 3 sections. Lalonde , koala and post 4 nations. And are telling me his production in one of those sections is more relevant?

The post 4-nations sample is relevant to disprove your notion that his production was only due to coaching bump.
The Lalonde/Mclellan split is fair because there was a significant change to his deployment and puck luck at that time.

Seriously, he had the 7th worst on-ice SH% in the entire NHL prior to January.

Except for hits. You got a full season of those so it is okay to use the whole season

...because that's looked the same all year. His overall play hasn't changed, just his deployment and puck luck.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Ya eventually, you have to make some moves, after 9 years of missing, or you end up like Buffalo.

Or you start selling futures too quickly to compete and become Ottawa.

 

[Sega Dreamcast]

I think the point is to discuss where things went wrong in Detroit’s failed rebuild, determine if people need to be fired and what they should do to fix the team.

Things that went wrong, in no particular order:

1. With a few exceptions, trades have ranged from awful to underwhelming.
2. Free agent signings leave a lot to be desired.
3. Too much time given to stale coaching regimes.
4. Prospect pool was nearly non-existent at the start of Yzerman's reign.
5. Moving out of the tanking stage of the rebuild despite never winning the lottery.

While we've seen some prospects earn a full-time spot and show a good amount of potential, this year was a step back from last year precisely because of issues 1, 2, and 3 listed above.

For now, I think the general consensus is for keeping Yzerman and hoping a full year of McLellan, dumping some dead weight, and some more callups will help us escape the doldrums were stuck in. Some are hoping for a big free agent signing, but I'm not holding my breath, nor do I think that would fix the other glaring issues.

However, it's easy to see why some fans are growing impatient as that plan for next year is not very inspiring for a team firmly stuck in no man's land.

I don't think next year is as simple as playoffs or bust, but if we see another awful offseason and disappointing season, then I think a lot more fans will be past the tipping point.

There, close the thread.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Or you start selling futures too quickly to compete and become Ottawa.

That’s what you want , playoffs vs becoming Buffalo.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

That’s what you want , playoffs vs becoming Buffalo.

I'd rather take the time to become Tampa/Florida/Colorado than be Toronto, yes.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'd rather take the time to become Tampa/Florida/Colorado than be Toronto, yes.

Well next year will be a full decade, guess we’ll see, which way they go.

 

[Fatass]

Or you start selling futures too quickly to compete and become Ottawa.

At some point Yzerman must sell some of his collected youth/picks/prospects to bring in the needed players the club is missing. Missing the playoffs (after this many years of rebuilding) isn’t helping the development of the players. This is exactly how a club gets stuck in an endless rebuild. Yes, they have a collection of good younger players, but they never acquire the elite star player(s) needed to make that ultimate playoff push. IMO Yzerman will make a couple big trades this summer.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Yes you’ve been the only one, and this isn’t the first time, for you, well done.

Multiple Wings fans have called him out

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Well next year will be a full decade, guess we’ll see, which way they go.

That moment you realize it took Florida and Colorado a decade...