Detroit Redwings Downfall

[WarriorofTime]

Is a young 30+ goal scorer/65+pt guy worth a late 1st and scraps? Every single time.

Well if they were gonna miss the playoffs anyways in theory they could have just waited to sign him as a UFA, but sure, you pay some price to skip the UFA line as circumstances can change, no guarantee a replacement free agent is willing to sign, etc. etc. The value is likely fine, I'm just not declaring it some massive "fleecing" given DeBrincat was a guy one year removed from UFA with an expensive qualifying offer that wasn't going to extend long-term in a place like Ottawa.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Washington spent a decade as a competitive team going through various trials and tribulations together, determining which pieces worked and which could use an upgrade in the postseason and with enough re-tooling and bites of the apple it came together for the one postseason. How does that speak to postseason experience being irrelevant? Most cup winners had their share of growing pains along the way.

I’ve asked this question like 6 times now without an actual answer.

Do you think if Washington missed the post season in 2008 that they wouldn’t have won the Cup in 2018? Yes or no.

If no, then why is it catastrophic failure if the Wings miss this season when they’re not expecting to actually contender for a couple more years?

If yes, then why haven’t the Leaf’s improved despite so many attempts in the post season?

 

[JediOrderPizza]

24 is young for a D-man. Hell it's still pretty young for a forward.

That said, I agree with the fundamental notion. The Wings did basically fail at the rebuild because they neglected the golden rule of the rebuild - you don't rebuild for a set number of years, you rebuild until you have your elite core in place. They bailed on it because they wanted to sell tickets.

Even without Seider and Raymond, they finished only 5th worst in 20-21 season, Hronek was their leading friggen scorer. Think some don't realize how bad the bottom teams really are in comparison.

Once Seider and Raymond joined the team in 21-22 season any real chance for a Bedard or Celebrini was gone, hell even when they were that bad they were never going to win a lottery.

So what do they do trade Seider, Larkin and Raymond to have another go? Yeah I'm ok with the path they took.

 

[RedHawkDown]

That is such a fanboy take.

Seider turns 24 in a few days. He's not really young anymore. Yes, some defensemen turn out to be late bloomers, but most have hit their prime by the time they turn 24, or at least they are close to it.

Can Seider take another step forward? Sure, but he's also stagnated ever since his amazing rookie season. Right now, I would not bet on him ever being a Norris winner.

The simple truth is this : the Red Wings aborted their tank before they had the chance to grab a good enough player to become an elite team.

Straight up false, especially when we're talking two-way/defensive defensemen and not offensive defensemen like Makar/Hughes. Hedman for one was not close to his prime level for his first 5-6 years in the league. Duncan Keith, Ryan Suter, Shea Weber....the list goes on. None of these guys were at their peak in their early 20s, all of them hit that Norris-contending level in their mid to late 20s. If Seider takes no further steps from where he is now, I'll agree with you, he'll end up having a JayBo level career. That's not what I expect though, and I'm not sure why anyone would expect that given the trajectory of his comparables.

 

[Czechboy]

Straight up false, especially when we're talking two-way/defensive defensemen and not offensive defensemen like Makar/Hughes. Hedman for one was not close to his prime level for his first 5-6 years in the league. Duncan Keith, Ryan Suter, Shea Weber....the list goes on. None of these guys were at their peak in their early 20s, all of them hit that Norris-contending level in their mid to late 20s. If Seider takes no further steps from where he is now, I'll agree with you, he'll end up having a JayBo level career. That's not what I expect though, and I'm not sure why anyone would expect that given the trajectory of his comparables.

I still think Seider gets into Makar/Hughes type territory. I'd say around 28 he may even get a Norris nomination. But I think his calling card is more Defending than scoring. Seems like Asp is coming in to be a PP QB as well.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I still think Seider gets into Makar/Hughes type territory. I'd say around 28 he may even get a Norris nomination. But I think his calling card is more Defending than scoring. Seems like Asp is coming in to be a PP QB as well.

I think he's never going to score anywhere near Makar/Hughes, he is an elite defender and that's always been his calling card. I think as he fills in more and more over the next few years and the team around him improves, you are going to see a Pronger-style (as close as one can be in the modern day) two-day force. Kind of like a Shea Weber but with less of a shot and more puck-moving ability.

 

[RedHawkDown]

24 is young for a D-man. Hell it's still pretty young for a forward.

That said, I agree with the fundamental notion. The Wings did basically fail at the rebuild because they neglected the golden rule of the rebuild - you don't rebuild for a set number of years, you rebuild until you have your elite core in place. They bailed on it because they wanted to sell tickets.

Here's the thing. If the Wings had won the lottery in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 - four years in a row - they end up with J. Hughes, Power, Lafreniere, and Slafkovsky instead of Seider, Raymond, Kasper, and Edvinsson.

Is that former group some massive improvement? The way I see it:
J. Hughes >> Raymond
Seider >> Power
Slafkovsky > Kasper
Edvinsson >> Lafreniere

I don't see how that group has us in the playoffs instead. The point is that a lack of tanking isn't what is holding back Detroit. It's everything else - piss-poor pro scouting (IMO the worst in the NHL), lackadaisical trades, and lack of crazy steals in later-round drafting (though jury is out on guys like Buchelnikov that could change that). Yzerman has actually done a fantastic job getting top value at the top of the draft, and we'll see about his later draft picks in 2022 and 2023 that are looking fairly solid right now.

Once again, I consider myself a Yzerman hater, but fans of other teams are hating for entirely the wrong reasons with very little understanding of what Detroit's problems actually are.

 

[qcal1427]

I’ve asked this question like 6 times now without an actual answer.

Do you think if Washington missed the post season in 2008 that they wouldn’t have won the Cup in 2018? Yes or no.

If no, then why is it catastrophic failure if the Wings miss this season when they’re not expecting to actually contender for a couple more years?

If yes, then why haven’t the Leaf’s improved despite so many attempts in the post season?

Caps in 2008 were way on the outside looking in and then went on an insane run to finish the year and make the playoffs. They followed that up with a 108 point season and then a President's Trophy win. Detroit had the inside track and (for the third year in a row) completely shit the bed down the stretch. That is why it is a catastrophic failure.

A season is not path-independent. Missing the playoffs last year or this year is not by itself catastrophic. It's the way they missed the playoffs last year (and look like they will again this year) that is the issue.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I’ve asked this question like 6 times now without an actual answer.

Do you think if Washington missed the post season in 2008 that they wouldn’t have won the Cup in 2018? Yes or no.

If no, then why is it catastrophic failure if the Wings miss this season when they’re not expecting to actually contender for a couple more years?

If yes, then why haven’t the Leaf’s improved despite so many attempts in the post season?

What kind of incrementalism is this? Could
you just apply that same logic perennially for every year forever? Ovechkin missed the playoffs twice at the start of his career and then his team begun making it consistently. How many times has Larkin missed the playoffs already?

 

[saska sault]

Here's the thing. If the Wings had won the lottery in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 - four years in a row - they end up with J. Hughes, Power, Lafreniere, and Slafkovsky instead of Seider, Raymond, Kasper, and Edvinsson.

Is that former group some massive improvement? The way I see it:
J. Hughes >> Raymond
Seider >> Power
Slafkovsky > Kasper
Edvinsson >> Lafreniere

I don't see how that group has us in the playoffs instead. The point is that a lack of tanking isn't what is holding back Detroit. It's everything else - piss-poor pro scouting (IMO the worst in the NHL), lackadaisical trades, and lack of crazy steals in later-round drafting (though jury is out on guys like Buchelnikov that could change that). Yzerman has actually done a fantastic job getting top value at the top of the draft, and we'll see about his later draft picks in 2022 and 2023 that are looking fairly solid right now.

Once again, I consider myself a Yzerman hater, but fans of other teams are hating for entirely the wrong reasons with very little understanding of what Detroit's problems actually are.

Don't use logic. Need to tank harder and longer. Somehow control a lottery while you are at it.

 

[nbwingsfan]

What kind of incrementalism is this? Could
you just apply that same logic perennially for every year forever? Ovechkin missed the playoffs twice at the start of his career and then his team begun making it consistently. How many times has Larkin missed the playoffs already?

You have still not been able to answer the worlds simplest yes or no question. Shocking.

Likely because you can’t defend the idea that making the playoffs is the end all be all of winning a Cup years in the future lol

 

[Czechboy]

I think he's never going to score anywhere near Makar/Hughes, he is an elite defender and that's always been his calling card. I think as he fills in more and more over the next few years and the team around him improves, you are going to see a Pronger-style (as close as one can be in the modern day) two-day force. Kind of like a Shea Weber but with less of a shot and more puck-moving ability.

Totally agree. Surround him a few more legit Top 4D and he will look amazing. Erd is clearly on his way and is impressive as hell. Asp is a different beast but if he develops into a 50 point NHL Dman who QB's a pp then you could have a drafted and legit top 4 in about 3 seasons. Seider at his peak. Ed approaching it. Asp approaching it points wise. Jo as the 4th guy or a UFA to really amp it up.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You have still not been able to answer the worlds simplest yes or no question. Shocking.

Why would poster answer a strawman.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Totally agree. Surround him a few more legit Top 4D and he will look amazing. Erd is clearly on his way and is impressive as hell. Asp is a different beast but if he develops into a 50 point NHL Dman who QB's a pp then you could have a drafted and legit top 4 in about 3 seasons. Seider at his peak. Ed approaching it. Asp approaching it points wise. Jo as the 4th guy or a UFA to really amp it up.

Yzerman needs to go extremely hard after Provorov this offseason if he makes it there.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You have still not been able to answer the worlds simplest yes or no question. Shocking.

Likely because you can’t defend the idea that making the playoffs is the end all be all of winning a Cup years in the future lol

I can’t answer your question because it doesn’t make a lick of sense and is thus not the worlds simplest yes or no question. Hope that helps.

 

[Artaud]

Here's the thing. If the Wings had won the lottery in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 - four years in a row - they end up with J. Hughes, Power, Lafreniere, and Slafkovsky instead of Seider, Raymond, Kasper, and Edvinsson.

Is that former group some massive improvement? The way I see it:
J. Hughes >> Raymond
Seider >> Power
Slafkovsky > Kasper
Edvinsson >> Lafreniere

I don't see how that group has us in the playoffs instead. The point is that a lack of tanking isn't what is holding back Detroit. It's everything else - piss-poor pro scouting (IMO the worst in the NHL), lackadaisical trades, and lack of crazy steals in later-round drafting (though jury is out on guys like Buchelnikov that could change that). Yzerman has actually done a fantastic job getting top value at the top of the draft, and we'll see about his later draft picks in 2022 and 2023 that are looking fairly solid right now.

Once again, I consider myself a Yzerman hater, but fans of other teams are hating for entirely the wrong reasons with very little understanding of what Detroit's problems actually are.

Some of the moves they made clearly signaled the Red Wings believed their core of young players was good enough to blossom into a contender at maturity. Many people, including myself, believe that was misguided because they don't have enough elite talent.

Is their lack of elite talent due to bad luck in the lottery, bad timing of their rebuild giving them high picks in weak crops, or simply lack of patience in their approach? To me, patience is the most obvious culprit. They needed to keep accumulating assets. Their current core is doomed to be mid unless Yzerman pulls a rabbit out of his hat, which, given his track record, seems unlikely.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Some of the moves they made clearly signaled the Red Wings believed their core of young players was good enough to blossom into a contender at maturity. Many people, including myself, believe that was misguided because they don't have enough elite talent.

Is their lack of elite talent due to bad luck in the lottery, bad timing of their rebuild giving them high picks in weak crops, or simply lack of patience in their approach? To me, patience is the most obvious culprit. They needed to keep accumulating assets. Their current core is doomed to be mid unless Yzerman pulls a rabbit out of his hat, which, given his track record, seems unlikely.

So, you're saying the fatal mistake was not also tanking in 2023 and 2024? If we finished bottom 3 last year and drafted Beckett Sennecke instead of being 0 points out of the playoffs, you're sitting here and telling me you would in good faith be calling the rebuild a smashing success?

 

[newfy]

The value is likely fine

You hate the wings so much that you cant even say the wings got good value in the Debrincat trade?

They traded for a 25 year old with a couple 40 goal seasons, who they got 27 goals 67 points out of last year. Hes now on pace for 37 goals, and 70 points... the only thing worth while they gave up is a late first rounder, and you cant just outright say they did well in that trade lol? Hes 2 goals outta the top 10 in scoring for god's sake. The year before he was traded for the 7th and 39th overall plus a future 4th

 

[Artaud]

So, you're saying the fatal mistake was not also tanking in 2023 and 2024? If we finished bottom 3 last year and drafted Beckett Sennecke instead of being 0 points out of the playoffs, you're sitting here and telling me you would in good faith be calling the rebuild a smashing success?

You could have had Demidov, a more highly touted prospect than anyone drafted by the Red Wings in recent memory.

In 2023, a 3rd overall pick would have landed you Adam Fantilli. That's your missing franchise center right there.

A team can always use one more high pick, but I will say this (which we can both agree on) : that team isn't always better off chasing a high pick. Buffalo has shown prolonged rebuilds are not productive in the end.

Still, I think it's smarter to let progress come naturally as a young team develops, rather than forcing it by infusing aging talent like the Red Wings did.

 

[newfy]

You could have had Demidov, a more highly touted prospect than anyone drafted by the Red Wings in recent memory.

In 2023, a 3rd overall pick would have landed you Adam Fantilli. That's your missing franchise center right there.

A team can always use one more high pick, but I will say this (which we can both agree on) : that team isn't always better off chasing a high pick. Buffalo has shown prolonged rebuilds are not productive in the end.

Still, I think it's smarter to let progress come naturally as a young team develops, rather than forcing it by infusing aging talent like the Red Wings did.

How do you tank for 3rd overall in 2023? Please explain how to make Detroit that bad without trading Larkin Seider and Raymond. There were multiple teams 20+ points worse than Detroit

 

[Golden_Jet]

You hate the wings so much that you cant even say the wings got good value in the Debrincat trade?

They traded for a 25 year old with a couple 40 goal seasons, who they got 27 goals 67 points out of last year. Hes now on pace for 37 goals, and 70 points... the only thing worth while they gave up is a late first rounder, and you cant just outright say they did well in that trade lol? Hes 2 goals outta the top 10 in scoring for god's sake. The year before he was traded for the 7th and 39th overall plus a future 4th

Easy trade to make , when he only wants to go to one team.

 

[zenator]

It would be really funny if after all of this the Wings make the playoffs. It's not impossible, considering the snail's pace of the race, and they aren't that far out. An 8-2 finish might do it.

And even funnier if they upset Washington. That is a longshot, but Logan Thompson's play hasn't been nearly as good since he signed his contract extension.

I've seen crazier things happening, like the Hamburglar, Detroit making the playoffs has much better odds than the Hamburglar run did.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You could have had Demidov, a more highly touted prospect than anyone drafted by the Red Wings in recent memory.

In 2023, a 3rd overall pick would have landed you Adam Fantilli. That's your missing franchise center right there.

A team can always use one more high pick, but I will say this (which we can both agree on) : that team isn't always better off chasing a high pick. Buffalo has shown prolonged rebuilds are not productive in the end.

Still, I think it's smarter to let progress come naturally as a young team develops, rather than forcing it by infusing aging talent like the Red Wings did.

Not sure I follow. So 44 pts in 72 games Fantilli has plenty of potential and will surely grow into a franchise C, but all the Wings prospects and young players have no chance of that? Fantilli is 20 years old, about 5 months younger than Kasper. Why can he become a franchise C but Kasper has no chance of becoming a 1C? Seems like you think other players will all progress but none of ours will.

Demidov was taken 5th overall. Did all the teams above (1-4) ruin their rebuilds?

Finally, progress didn’t come because we infused aging talent. The aging talent is horrible. Progress came because Raymond evolved into a 1st line winger, Seider cemented his role as a 1D, Edvinsson played very well near the end of last season, etc. therefore, the only way to actually be bad in 2023 and 2024, as others have mentioned, would have been to trade one or both of Seider and Raymond. Debrincat you could say helped us for sure but he’s 27 so not sure how he’s not part of the right age group.

These are very poor arguments you’re making here.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You could have had Demidov, a more highly touted prospect than anyone drafted by the Red Wings in recent memory.

In 2023, a 3rd overall pick would have landed you Adam Fantilli. That's your missing franchise center right there.

A team can always use one more high pick, but I will say this (which we can both agree on) : that team isn't always better off chasing a high pick. Buffalo has shown prolonged rebuilds are not productive in the end.

Still, I think it's smarter to let progress come naturally as a young team develops, rather than forcing it by infusing aging talent like the Red Wings did.

How are the Wings supposed to be that bad without trading Seider/Raymond/Larkin?

 

[Dotter]

Majority of Wings core is under 23 (6 NHL roster players under 23). In comparison, most of Senators core is over 24.

While "technically" Wings started their rebuild before Sens. However Ken Holland botched it and Yzerman had to go full-on scorched earth and clean up his mess when he got here. That took 2 years.

So I count this as Wings second rebuild attempt, and it started in 2019.

Despite this, DRWs outperformed Sens last season, and Sens are a smidge better than DRWs this season, with DET having the worst coach in the NHL (Lalonde) sinking them at the start of the season.

To top it off, Wings best prospects have not even yet.