Detroit Redwings Downfall

[NailsHoglander]

The quadrants are just usage. The Y axis is quality of competition based on relative CF%. The X axis is OZ starts (which is largely by overrated by people because it ignores the vast majority of starts being NZ or on the fly). So you don’t want your D to be in any of the quadrants because it doesn’t actually indicate how well they’re playing. What matters more is the color. Blue good. Orange bad. Blue top left be best as they’re playing well against top competition with fewer OZ starts.

Well that makes sense seeing Myers as the dark red dumpster fire ball that he is

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

No matter how bad Detroit gets, we're still better than Chicago.

 

[Juha]

Just looking at Lyon's numbers alone - he's improved from a 3.04 and .904 to a 2.85 and a .908 and he's the number 2 guy.

Talbot was 2.50 and .913 on a team that played a 1-3-1 almost exclusively in LA. He's at 2.67 and .921 here with Detroit so clearly Lalonde has made some strides to the team's defensive game.

Derek has been running these systems:

OZP: 2-3 - they used to call this center lock or middle lock. Ron Wilson ran this system to a Stanley Cup appearance with the Caps back in 98.. 2 man pressure with D pinches down either wall to keep pucks alive.

OZP: Off-Puck Movement - Lalonde had been tailoring the offensive game to Kane's ability to hold the puck and create, with other players moving to create space and lanes. Debrincat just seems to get more lazy by the day and Kasper is an excellent choice to be the energy combined with his other skills... It's a lot for a young guy to carry two players that don't do anything off the puck.

Teams key on Larkin/Raymond so if others aren't going to score.. trouble. The bottom 6 is absolute shit and that's on Yzerman.

OZ FC: 2-3 where they aren't quite as aggressive with the D until a battle is created , if one is created. The Wings don't really have the personnel across the roster to be good at this.. I question whether they have the roster to make any system work.. it is a pile of generally incompatible parts.


All the systems below are actually working quite well, teams don't have free sailing at the Wings through the NZ . The D zone is generally decent overall.
NZ FC: 1-2-2 or 1-1-3
DZ BO: Weak-Side Winger Wide
DZC: Man on Man/Collapsing

I would like to see the coach that could do much better with this roster... maybe there is one and I guess we may see soon enough.

Great post. Very informative and interesting. Thank you.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Draft picks alone won't make the Wings a contender. Something else has to go in their favor. Either someone steps up in a big way internally, they sign a free agent (which isn't as easy), or make a trade.

In TB, Point and Cirelli and Kuch were not first rounders. Drafted in rds 2 and 3 and became key and important pieces. As were the deals to bring in McDonaugh, Serg, and Cernak.

Hedman/Stamkos are better cornerstones than Raymond/Seider, but that's how the draft fell.

Agreed.

Frankly, I think all those bad teams saying they're "rebuilding through the draft" to justify sitting on their hands for years while the team is rotting are just f***ing themselves. The typical draft reward for a bottom-10 season is not Crosby or McDavid or Ovechkin; it's something like a future good player (top-6/top-4) and maybe a future depth piece. And to obtain that "prize" all they had to do was suck for an entire year. A year during which their older players get worse, and their younger players get one year closer to UFA. That process isn't a reliable way to build a contender, though it can work, if your drafting/development is really outstanding for a few years, or you're terrible for so long that you eventually luck into a superstar or two.

IMO active rebuilds have a better chance of success. Good GMs are constantly hunting for good pieces, and taking risks to obtain them. Look at Florida: they did the "basement team sitting on their hands" thing for a decade, and got their lottery picks, and some of those lottery picks became great players, and those players entered their prime, and... they still sucked. It didn't bring them anywhere. What turned them around was a mix of both brilliant low-cost acquisitions (Forsling, Montour, Bennet, Verhaeghe) and bigger swings that worked out (Reinhart trade, Tkachuk trade, Bobrovsky). NJ is another recent example of a pretty active rebuild that worked out well.

Despite criticizing him in this thread, I don't think Yzerman has really been terrible in Detroit, but I do think he's been too placid.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Agreed.

Frankly, I think all those bad teams saying they're "rebuilding through the draft" to justify sitting on their hands for years while the team is rotting are just f***ing themselves. The typical draft reward for a bottom-10 season is not Crosby or McDavid or Ovechkin; it's something like a future good player (top-6/top-4) and maybe a future depth piece. And to obtain that "prize" all they had to do was suck for an entire year. A year during which their older players get worse, and their younger players get one year closer to UFA. That process isn't a reliable way to build a contender, though it can work, if your drafting/development is really outstanding for a few years, or you're terrible for so long that you eventually luck into a superstar or two.

IMO active rebuilds have a better chance of success. Good GMs are constantly hunting for good pieces, and taking risks to obtain them. Look at Florida: they did the "basement team sitting on their hands" thing for a decade, and got their lottery picks, and some of those lottery picks became great players, and those players entered their prime, and... they still sucked. It didn't bring them anywhere. What turned them around was a mix of both brilliant low-cost acquisitions (Forsling, Montour, Bennet, Verhaeghe) and bigger swings that worked out (Reinhart trade, Tkachuk trade, Bobrovsky). NJ is another recent example of a pretty active rebuild that worked out well.

Despite criticizing him in this thread, I don't think Yzerman has really been terrible in Detroit, but I do think he's been too placid.

NJ worked out because of two first overall picks.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

NJ worked out because of two first overall picks.

And a 2nd OA....

 

[JediOrderPizza]

You should be more like that rebuild that got two first overalls and moved up to 2nd overall in 2022.

Just riveting advice.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I see. So, what separates Detroit's successful rebuild and Ottawa's failing rebuild is that Detroit is "building a culture", but "not trying to really win", while Ottawa is floundering because they have a "losing culture".

That distinction probably explains the large gap between the two teams in the standings, with Detroit being an impressive 8-10-2, while Ottawa has a disappointing 8-11-1.



I'm sure he would be happy to sell vets at TDL, but unfortunately all the non-core players he brought to the team are either underperforming, or overpaid, or both. Currently the Wings have no good deadline bait, and are unlikely to recoup any significant asset for them.



Those placeholder contracts expire within 2-3 years. Which means that within that timeframe, the Wings will need at least another 4 good top-9 forwards, another 2-3 reliable Dmen, and a starting goaltender, just to approach contention.

Based on your posts, you seem very confident that all those players can come from the Wings's prospect pool. I think that's an extremely unrealistic expectation, for any development system.

What separates Ottawa and Detroit is that Ottawa has their core locked up already with the team with one NHL calibre prospect, no 1st round pick and are still bad

Detroit has a top 3-5 prospect pool and are right with them in the standings.

They’re at two different spots

 

[Dotter]

What makes you think contenders are interested in players that can barely hang on to a depth role on a bottom-feeder? Kane has an NTC, and is borderline unplayable at EV. Fischer and Motte might return a late-round pick at best, if someone's desperate for a warm body who can PK. And if Berggren is a young player with tenacity and scoring ability, why wouldn't the Wings keep him? They desperately need this kind of player! Oh right, because he's 24 and pacing for a 16 pt season. NHL GMs can be stupid, but not that stupid.



Historically, UFAs are happy to go to teams that pay them more than everyone else. Which might actually be Detroit, given Yzerman's track record there, but that's more of a problem than a solution.



He was known to do that when supported by Tampa's scouting staff. Not so much in Detroit.

If he still had this amazing talent to turn nothing into gold, why would he have spent the last 6 years hiding it? Certainly Detroit has no shortage of underperformers that should be turned into legit talent.



MBN is a winger; I'm surprised that someone who's clearly very excited and hopeful for Detroit's prospects wouldn't know that.

You seem extremely confident that Yzerman's drafting ability will carry the Wings through the rebuild. But now that we're a few years removed from Yzerman's first couple drafts, we can start evaluating them. And frankly they don't really look that great. In those two years, the Wings had 23 picks total, including 6 2nd-rounders. And of these 23 picks, the only ones that "hit" were the top-10 picks; none of the others were successful (I guess we can wait and see for Al Johansson, who's getting time on Detroit's blueline this year, but the outlook isn't great). That's a disappointing outcome; most other basement teams during that period had more drafting success. Why do you expect his later drafts to be completely different?



I think most people agree that he's rebuilding, what's contentious is whether he's rebuilding well. I look at the team Yzerman is building, and while I could certainly see them in a WC playoff spot in 3 years, I don't see much of a path for being a real contender. Not unless Yzerman suddenly starts hitting homeruns with every move, which he has mysteriously lost the ability to do in the past 6 years.

What 2019 late round draft picks did Yzerman miss that would have turned the franchise around? LMAO!

Again, rebuilding teams don't trade draft capital unless a young Debrincat falls in your lap. Drouin was a former 3rd overall pick. Yzerman isn't trading Raymond, he's not underperforming.

Show me a rebuild that took 6 years or less that didn't have a top 3 pick.

The fact Yzerman selected a top 2 player (and Calder winner) with the 6th pick in 2019 and a top 3 player (Calder runner up) in the 2020 draft with his 4th pick is HUGE. That's good drafting. Scanning through the 2019, 2020 proves to be weak drafts. Not one gamebreakers were produced outside the 1st round. That's Yzerman's fault how? /facepalm

Maybe you could say JJ Peterka? .... Meh.

Are you going to demand Yzerman cures cancer and solves world hunger for his next civil duty?

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

You should be more like that rebuild that got two first overalls and moved up to 2nd overall in 2022.

Just riveting advice.

Do you think Detroit would be in a playoff spot if they had won the lottery in 2019 and 2020? Alternatively, do you think Detroit would be in a playoff spot if they had Hischier and Hughes instead of Raymond and Seider?

If you think NJ's rebuild worked simply because of Hischier and Hughes, you're clueless. In fact both players were playing in great in 21-22, and the Devils still sucked. They're great players, but they're not enough.

The Devils rebuild worked because they actively went out and got players they needed to get better, instead of magically waiting for the draft to solve everything. Hamilton, Meier, Siegenthaler, Markstrom, Palat, Noesen etc. Not all great moves or great contracts, but often that's still better than doing nothing. NJ has relatively few homegrown players on their roster. If they hadn't done those moves they would still be waiting in the basement along the other usual bottom-feeders.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Just look at Edmonton. It hasn't been enough to get McDavid. Or Washington before 2018. It wasn't enough to just have maybe the greatest goal scorer of all time.

For a rebuild to result in a Cup, you have to overwhelming win at least one trade. Everything had to come together perfectly for the Panthers to pull off the Tkachuk deal. If he didn't want out of Calgary, the Flames aren't trading him for Huberdeau, or him + whatever. If Huberdeau doesn't have a career year at the same time Tkachuk wants out of Calgary, the Flames aren't taking/can't sell to their fanbase an older player who needs a new huge contract in return.

Take the Kings. They got Richards in 2011, but they were still an average team at the 2012 deadline. If they don't get Carter for Johnson, which was far less than what Columbus paid for him, there's no Cup. The Kings may have even missed the playoffs in 11-12 without that trade. If they do, there's probably no Cup in 2014 either.

The Wings just haven't won a move that much yet. You could throw Seider in there, since it was a major wow moment that turned out well, but it clearly hasn't been enough.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

Let’s be honest, I know it’s pretty obvious, but not drafting Quinn Hughes when he was in your backyard was franchise altering.

Also, the lack of quality defencemen, seider is getting overworked and overplayed

To top it off they gifted us Hronek to make a top pair in the entire NHL! LMAO

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

you actually think yzerman isnt capable of judging how good an nhler is ? he knew the level of taresenkos current game and signed him because cap doesnt matter right now , and in effort to have a fellow russian around to help bushelnikov adjust if he crosses the pond next season . yzerman also knew that holl/chariot/petry were iffy too , but he doest want to be good right now and lessen his draft spot . hes in a holding pattern waiting for prospects to develop while not wanting to be a little bit better with ufa signings that cost future cap plus push us further back in the draft only to get crushed first round playoffs . obviously he cant state this pubically but this holding pattern is logically the best way to run a rebuild instead of signing better ufa that eek you into playoffs just to get crushed early , while worsening your draft posistion . yzerman critiques will all be silenced 2026/27 when redwings become a top 8 team for a decade

Do you think Dylan Larkin was sold on signing an eight-year contract with the promise from Yzerman that the team would be in a "holding pattern" for most of the prime of his career and not going anywhere?

Screw the "holding pattern" garbage. This team needs to begin winning ASAP, or Lord Yzerman should be on the hot seat.

If his whole strategy includes another 2-3 years asking fans to shell out good money for this directionless nonsense and doesn't want to win right now, then he can leave. It's been six years since he took over and almost 10 without the playoffs. Unacceptable for one of the NHL's premier teams.

We've been patient enough.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Show me a rebuild that took 6 years or less that didn't have a top 3 pick.

Show me a team that hired the supposed best GM in hockey and had to wait over six years to even make the playoffs.

Yzerman wasn't hired to be just another GM. He was hired to be special.

Are you going to demand Yzerman cures cancer and solves world hunger for his next civil duty?

No, but stop pretending like that's what he's doing. He's a sports executive - he's not above criticism. And when we don't get meaningful results for six years, the criticism will get louder.