Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] Petr Mrazek (2 years, $4M AAV)

[Frk It]

Lowballing your stud young goaltender, great way to lose him

Heading into arbitration, teams typically offer on lower end, players offer on higher end, and the arbitrator typically settles into the middle.

Don't really think what Detroit was really "lowballing" with their offer anyhow, it was basically in line with what John Gibson just got, who is maybe the best recent comparable out there for Mrazek.

 

[Claypool]

To me, this is the player that I would have thought, more so than Abdelkader, Dekeyser, Helm, Glendening, etc who all got 5+ year extensions over the past year, could have offered you the most surplus value if you were to sign him to a long term deal instead of a bridge.

If Mrzaek continues to progress into an elite starting goalie, you're going to have to pay him accordingly in 2 years time. Can you maybe save a little over the short term by going year-to-year? Sure. But you're going to have to pay a lot more on the back end, so I think I would have committed long term now. Obviously there's risk in doing so, but to me that's a bet worth making with Mrazek.

Mrazek hasn't even shown he's capable of playing 65 games at a high level. He's a very, very good player with a lot of promise, but he needs to show more consistency to become a reliable starter. And if Mrazek plays like a $7 million+ goalie over the next two years then the Red Wings will continue having success and be more than happy to pay him.

 

[izlez]

Lowballing your stud young goaltender, great way to lose him

Overpaying a player = Bad
Getting a player for cheap = Bad

and obviously, per HFBoards, no player has ever got paid exactly what they deserve.

All GM's are terrible at all times

 

[tarheelhockey]

Lowballing your stud young goaltender, great way to lose him

That's why these guys hire agents to handle negotiation. It's business.

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

Lowballing your stud young goaltender, great way to lose him

How exactly is this low balling? Just seems like a fair deal to me

 

[Torso9000]

Mrazek hasn't even shown he's capable of playing 65 games at a high level. He's a very, very good player with a lot of promise, but he needs to show more consistency to become a reliable starter. And if Mrazek plays like a $7 million+ goalie over the next two years then the Red Wings will continue having success and be more than happy to pay him.

That's true. I guess my point was that there are no potential discounts or savings from going down that road.

While it may be a case of me cherry-picking an example to fit my point, I look at what Montreal elected to do with Subban giving him a "prove-it" bridge deal versus what they could have signed him for long-term in January of 13, and I can't help but feel that when dealing with a player you believe to have elite talent, it tends to be in the team's favour to buy out more discounted years if given an opportunity.

Obviously there are risks involved with betting big on someone who has a relatively short track record and by going year-to-year you limit the chances of an outright bust or disaster, but I think the risk/reward is worth it for someone like Mrazek.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Pretty good contract for both sides.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That's true. I guess my point was that there are no potential discounts or savings from going down that road.

While it may be a case of me cherry-picking an example to fit my point, I look at what Montreal elected to do with Subban giving him a "prove-it" bridge deal versus what they could have signed him for long-term in January of 13, and I can't help but feel that when dealing with a player you believe to have elite talent, it tends to be in the team's favour to buy out more discounted years if given an opportunity.

Obviously there are risks involved with betting big on someone who has a relatively short track record and by going year-to-year you limit the chances of an outright bust or disaster, but I think the risk/reward is worth it for someone like Mrazek.

To net any real benefit to taking on the risk of a 6M+ contract to Mrazek, you'd have to get out to about year 4 (4,4,7,7 would be 22M - 6,6,6,6 would be 24M)

So, either you're expecting Mrazek to be worthy of Lundqvist money for good sooner rather than later, or you're better off with this bridge. There is very little to gain if Mrazek doesn't become an elite of the elite goalie and in two years, you'll have the cap space to give him 7-8 and have a backup make 1-1.5, because Howard can more easily be moved. And on the off chance that Mrazek never shakes his late season inconsistency, you're not bound into a guy for 6 years, 36M

 

[YourARumour]

If they carry 3 goalies and plant Howard in the press box all year, would his cap hit count against the cap?

 

[Torso9000]

To net any real benefit to taking on the risk of a 6M+ contract to Mrazek, you'd have to get out to about year 4 (4,4,7,7 would be 22M - 6,6,6,6 would be 24M)

So, either you're expecting Mrazek to be worthy of Lundqvist money for good sooner rather than later, or you're better off with this bridge. There is very little to gain if Mrazek doesn't become an elite of the elite goalie and in two years, you'll have the cap space to give him 7-8 and have a backup make 1-1.5, because Howard can more easily be moved. And on the off chance that Mrazek never shakes his late season inconsistency, you're not bound into a guy for 6 years, 36M

That's probably fair, and I didn't mean to suggest that going the route they did was unreasonable - it probably provides the lowest risk to the Wings.

I guess I'm finding out that I'm a lot more bullish on Mrazek's immediate and long-term performance than the consensus, more than anything. I do happen to think that he probably can/will emerge as one of the 5 or so best goalies in the league fairly soon, and so I view any potential extension through that lens.

 

[bluetuned]

If they carry 3 goalies and plant Howard in the press box all year, would his cap hit count against the cap?

Yes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

If they carry 3 goalies and plant Howard in the press box all year, would his cap hit count against the cap?

Why on earth wouldn't it?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That's probably fair, and I didn't mean to suggest that going the route they did was unreasonable - it probably provides the lowest risk to the Wings.

I guess I'm finding out that I'm a lot more bullish on Mrazek's immediate and long-term performance than the consensus, more than anything. I do happen to think that he probably can/will emerge as one of the 5 or so best goalies in the league fairly soon, and so I view any potential extension through that lens.

Yeah. It's not that I'm unbullish on it. It's just that I see it as you give him 6-8, 6M per, so 36-48M total, and you have to be expecting to pay him more than 8M to get any tangible benefit in lieu of the bridge. Even if he's Lunqvist-esque, you'd be getting bent over the table if you're giving him 8M+ on his next deal. And given the Wings clear and present cap hell, they simply can't take on the risk for such little possible upside.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Yikes. Zero chance any player would do a team a favor and retire with $17 mil in their contract still on the table

The best you can hope for is for a player to fake an injury and sit on LTIR forever to just vacation and collect paychecks

Well Ericsson does have bad hips, So i would tend to think that he wouldn't have to fake a hip injury to be LTIR pretty sure if he said he couldn't play any more the doctor would say LTIR him.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Exactly why I think he would be a good buy out candidate.

Not that i wouldn't be against a buy out of Big Rig, Not sure that i would want to cover over 8 years though. Even Howard would take up 6 years for a buy out Howard is needed more for this season then Ericsson is though and he can retire and still get paid decently for the next 8 years or so. Honestly i could see a Ericsson buy out more then a Howard buy out at this stage. Howard is still useful Ericsson not so much.

 

[Leafs87]

Is he a UFA at the end ?

 

[Claypool]

Is he a UFA at the end ?

Nope.

 

[Funk21]

Kid's a beast, now let's just move Howard.

Good luck with that. About the only team that could and would possibly take on that terrible contract is Arizona. To do it I suspect the ask will be huge, a first and likely a top prospect or another couple of picks.

Arizona would have to have a taker for Smith and would ask likely expose Howard at the expansion draft( which if I am Vegas I don't touch with a ten foot pole unless extra picks get passed on)

 

[Redline]

That's a fair price for Mrazek, he'll earn it no problem.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Is he a UFA at the end ?

Nope still 1 more RFA year like what DeKeyser had this year.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Lowballing your stud young goaltender, great way to lose him

So how's averaging $4 million per for the next 2 years lowballing your stud goaltender. He will sign his long term deal in another 2 years or so and is probably looking at $6 million to $7 million per long term for 6-8 years this is pretty spot on for what other comparable's are getting.

 

[Ezekial]

Good luck with that. About the only team that could and would possibly take on that terrible contract is Arizona. To do it I suspect the ask will be huge, a first and likely a top prospect or another couple of picks.

Arizona would have to have a taker for Smith and would ask likely expose Howard at the expansion draft( which if I am Vegas I don't touch with a ten foot pole unless extra picks get passed on)

There's this wicked awesome thing called retention.

Although I don't think Howard is moved til at/after the exp-draft

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Well Ericsson does have bad hips, So i would tend to think that he wouldn't have to fake a hip injury to be LTIR pretty sure if he said he couldn't play any more the doctor would say LTIR him.

Ericsson is only 32 so I would imagine he is pretty far away from having a career ending hip injury at this point

 

[Ezekial]

Ericsson is only 32 so I would imagine he is pretty far away from having a career ending hip injury at this point

Well, he needs it, he's waiting until he retires to get it IIRC.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Ericsson is only 32 so I would imagine he is pretty far away from having a career ending hip injury at this point

Well according to the article out of Sweden last summer, His hips are pretty bad and it sounds like he doesn't want to address it i guess he doesn't want to miss to much of the season. But as he stands right now he's more of a liability to us then a asset to us. Something needs to be done here.