Speculation: Destinations for Gibson, Merzlikins, Grubauer ?

[lanceuppercut75]

I think all three of these goalies are traded in the next 12 months. They all have between $5m and $6m cap hit and are all 2027 UFAs with 3 years of term. Gibson I can see being traded in-season, with some chance of it being as late as next summer. Merzlikins maybe would be more of a deadline or offseason thing. Grubauer I think is likely to stay in Seattle until the summer, but then likely to be moved once the offseason begins.

Where do we think these guys are going to end up?

I think that Detroit is a strong contender to add one of these guys. The trade would involve Husso as an expiring cap dump if it's done during the season. Talbot and the added goalie would be the tandem until 2026 when Talbot expires and Cossa's waiver exemption ends. DET is projected to be a bubble team, so upgrading Talbot / Lyon to John Gibson or Grubauer might be appealing. Talbot is there to tandem or backup, and then the new guy being added mentors Cossa during 26/27 season before their contract expires.

Calgary I feel could be convinced to take Merzlikins, especially if CBJ retains. Offseason is more likely than deadline. Greaves loses his waiver exemption next summer, and CBJ will have to move one of Merzlikins, Tarasov or Greaves next summer. It seems most likely they would want to keep the younger guys. Trade for Elvis or maybe a buyout. Trade would be preferable even with retention.

Seattle could maybe be interested in swapping Grubauer for Georgiev's cheaper and expiring contract, if Colorado's season starts out with Georgiev underwhelming and them coveting Grubauer as a known asset they're familiar with. Daccord's raise kicks in next summer and they may not want to pay Grubauer's cap hit once Daccord's cap rises to 5 million AAV.

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[Avs44]

Dear God someone please take Georgiev. I am willing to try anyone else. I’d even take Gru back as the OP suggests. Avs are going to have to look for a new goalie if he keeps picking up where he left off last year (great start tonight!) or this season will be a waste.

 

[Bleedred]

I think it’s more than possible that none of these goalies are traded in the next 12 months.

Grubauer is probably a buyout next summer, barring an up year.

If Elvis can be somewhat decent maybe they can trade him with retention.

If Gibson can be somewhat decent this year maybe they trade him with retention. I guess Grubauer can be traded with retention too if he has a decent year.

After seeing Korpisalo be traded, for a huge upgrade, no less, it’s not off the table that any of these three guys can be moved. I just don’t think all 3 of them will be. They may have to explore other options to get rid of them, and I could see both Elvis and Grubauer being buyouts in the coming offseason. Gibson probably won’t be bought out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were to be.

 

[The Duck Knight]

One of them will be in Colorado by the deadline. Probably Gibson because Dostal can keep Georgiev on the bench where he belongs.

 

[PullHard]

Are guys like current day Gibson and Merzlikins an upgrade on Lyon, Talbot, or a healthy Husso? My immediate reaction as a Wings fan is “what’s coming with those guys to take on those cap hits?” I’d rather Yzerman keep cycling through placeholders until Cossa and/or Augustine are ready than saddle the team with a bad goalie on a worse contract.

 

[JoeSakic13]

Yeah I think this is the year that Colorado makes a trade to land someone better between the pipes.

Out of those 3 I’d hope for Gibson, but his value has plummeted the last couple years in Anaheim. Is it that he’s cooked or that he needs a better team in front of him? Hoping it’s the latter.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Are guys like current day Gibson and Merzlikins an upgrade on Lyon, Talbot, or a healthy Husso? My immediate reaction as a Wings fan is “what’s coming with those guys to take on those cap hits?” I’d rather Yzerman keep cycling through placeholders until Cossa and/or Augustine are ready than saddle the team with a bad goalie on a worse contract.

Something that comes to mind is:

Husso (expiring) + Holl (2 yrs negative value)
for
Grubauer (3 yrs)

Doesn't work with the cap, even with Holl buried in the AHL, but you can keep him in the AHL and retain on both goalies and it works. Grubauer @ 90% for Husso @ 60% and Holl (buried) works out to Detroit taking on only $210,000 cap for the year and then Seattle retaining only $590,000 per year for the 2 years after. Detroit also gets Grubauer 10% cheaper cap in the 2 seasons after this one.

Cossa replaces Talbot. Augustine replaces Grubauer. Swap Holl's definitely bad contract for Grubauer which maybe or may not be a bad contract, depending on how he plays in Detroit.

You can use roughly the same framework for Gibson or Merzlikins too.

 

[duckpuck]

Something that comes to mind is:

Husso (expiring) + Holl (2 yrs negative value)
for
Grubauer (3 yrs)

Doesn't work with the cap, even with Holl buried in the AHL, but you can keep him in the AHL and retain on both goalies and it works. Grubauer @ 90% for Husso @ 60% and Holl (buried) works out to Detroit taking on only $210,000 cap for the year and then Seattle retaining only $590,000 per year for the 2 years after. Detroit also gets Grubauer 10% cheaper cap in the 2 seasons after this one.

Cossa replaces Talbot. Augustine replaces Grubauer. Swap Holl's definitely bad contract for Grubauer which maybe or may not be a bad contract, depending on how he plays in Detroit.

You can use roughly the same framework for Gibson or Merzlikins too.

I don't see why the ducks make this type of trade for Gibson. They don't need to trade him for what amounts to Holl (negative value at a position where they already have a log jam) and 1 season of a backup goalie. There'd have to be a pretty significant add. I don't think they're that desperate to move Gibson and his contract.

If Gibson can play a bit better - which I think he will on an improved Ducks team - his contract isn't that bad given what has happened in the goalie market. Ullmark - whose numbers were inflated by playing on a very good defensive team - just got 4 x $8.25M. Gibson is 3 x $6.4M (and the ducks could retain).

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Calgary will take on any of them, no retention needed but you will have to pay us in assets.

Grubauer is probably a buyout next summer, barring an up year.

Buying out Grub would only save them like 1.7M for next season. I can't imagine they would go that route if they are trying to compete

 

[squashmaple]

If Elvis bounces back even marginally this year, Waddell will probably take the first trade offer for him that doesn't require retention (as the Laine trade showed us ownership will not retain for multiple years, even if the result is a much worse trade). Even if it's for literally nothing in return. Who knows, maybe the trauma bonding and "coming together as a team" works and he's actually, like, good at the TDL this year and someone pays for him.

 

[Rec T]

I don't see why the ducks make this type of trade for Gibson. They don't need to trade him for what amounts to Holl (negative value at a position where they already have a log jam) and 1 season of a backup goalie. There'd have to be a pretty significant add. I don't think they're that desperate to move Gibson and his contract.

If Gibson can play a bit better - which I think he will on an improved Ducks team - his contract isn't that bad given what has happened in the goalie market. Ullmark - whose numbers were inflated by playing on a very good defensive team - just got 4 x $8.25M. Gibson is 3 x $6.4M (and the ducks could retain).

Unless he's an absolute locker room cancer (something I have heard zero indication of) and management wants him out of Anaheim as fast as possible regardless of the cost, yeah they aren't just going to trade him for nothing of value to the team.

Add in him being hurt (again...sigh) and not expected back for at least a few weeks, and you come up with him not being able to prove over more than a few games that he's still good until at least the end of the year/ASG.

It's going to be a while until the Ducks can get any sort of reasonable return for him (assuming that a better team this year improves his stats of course) but I don't think that bothers them all that much. Being near the cap floor, his salary isn't holding PV back from other deals. And with Dostal's contract, combined with Gibson's, they are paying what most teams are for a 1a/1b goalie tandem ... just in this case, the 1b is the more expensive option.

Trade deadline is probably the earliest he'd be moved if he even is.

 

[Bleedred]

Calgary will take on any of them, no retention needed but you will have to pay us in assets.


Buying out Grub would only save them like 1.7M for next season. I can't imagine they would go that route if they are trying to compete

I can’t imagine them trying to compete with him.

 

[Linds]

Avs would take a shot at Gibson with retention

 

[cg98]

Gibson has been supposedly on the way out for like 5+ years and hundreds of threads now.

 

[Xoggz22]

The destination for Elvis is Columbus. He's here for the year unless he magically becomes a top 5 goalie in the next few months. He has a solid skill set, but has been awful, then really bad the last two years. He's supposedly had a great camp and looks like a NHL goalie again. We'll see. Regardless, unless someone really wants him with no retention...He's staying put. Now, he has a great year...let's see what the offseason brings. Would only have 2 years left next summer.

 

[All Mighty]

I think Gibson with retention for Georgiev + (depending on retention) makes a lot of sense. Ducks get the contract that ends earlier and Avs get a better tandem partner for Annunen until they decide if he’s the guy.

 

[QuizGuy66]

As a Devils fan I do not miss these kinds of threads, especially regarding Gibson

 

[Figgy44]

Calgary will take on any of them, no retention needed but you will have to pay us in assets.


Buying out Grub would only save them like 1.7M for next season. I can't imagine they would go that route if they are trying to compete

The only one of those names I'm interested in is Gibson. I think he'd be an exciting mentor for someone like Wolf who probably kept tabs on a lot of California based NHL goalies as he was growing up.

Grubauer and Merzlikins I think would be more an obvious in the way type of thing. Gibson at least seems more capable of being mentor like to Wolf than the other two (even if much of it is based on his performance from like 5+ seasons ago).

 

[VanillaCoke]

Demko for Gibson+

 

[Figgy44]

After thinking about it, with how many first rounders spoiling under the Oilers... Can't they try and do something like Nurse ++ for Grubauer or Gibson and call it a day? I can't imagine that's worse than Pickard and it doesn't railroad Skinner...

 

[ViD]

chances are Elvis will be peppered badly in every game so it’s hard to imagine his numbers will be very solid thus making him less appealing to other teams

 

[McJedi]

Gibson for Fourgiev. No retention needed as Landy won't last long and we can LTIR him. Avs have plenty of cap space.