Speculation: Destinations for Gibson, Merzlikins, Grubauer ?

[lanceuppercut75]

I think all three of these goalies are traded in the next 12 months. They all have between $5m and $6m cap hit and are all 2027 UFAs with 3 years of term. Gibson I can see being traded in-season, with some chance of it being as late as next summer. Merzlikins maybe would be more of a deadline or offseason thing. Grubauer I think is likely to stay in Seattle until the summer, but then likely to be moved once the offseason begins.

Where do we think these guys are going to end up?

I think that Detroit is a strong contender to add one of these guys. The trade would involve Husso as an expiring cap dump if it's done during the season. Talbot and the added goalie would be the tandem until 2026 when Talbot expires and Cossa's waiver exemption ends. DET is projected to be a bubble team, so upgrading Talbot / Lyon to John Gibson or Grubauer might be appealing. Talbot is there to tandem or backup, and then the new guy being added mentors Cossa during 26/27 season before their contract expires.

Calgary I feel could be convinced to take Merzlikins, especially if CBJ retains. Offseason is more likely than deadline. Greaves loses his waiver exemption next summer, and CBJ will have to move one of Merzlikins, Tarasov or Greaves next summer. It seems most likely they would want to keep the younger guys. Trade for Elvis or maybe a buyout. Trade would be preferable even with retention.

Seattle could maybe be interested in swapping Grubauer for Georgiev's cheaper and expiring contract, if Colorado's season starts out with Georgiev underwhelming and them coveting Grubauer as a known asset they're familiar with. Daccord's raise kicks in next summer and they may not want to pay Grubauer's cap hit once Daccord's cap rises to 5 million AAV.

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[Avs44]

Dear God someone please take Georgiev. I am willing to try anyone else. I’d even take Gru back as the OP suggests. Avs are going to have to look for a new goalie if he keeps picking up where he left off last year (great start tonight!) or this season will be a waste.

 

[Bleedred]

I think it’s more than possible that none of these goalies are traded in the next 12 months.

Grubauer is probably a buyout next summer, barring an up year.

If Elvis can be somewhat decent maybe they can trade him with retention.

If Gibson can be somewhat decent this year maybe they trade him with retention. I guess Grubauer can be traded with retention too if he has a decent year.

After seeing Korpisalo be traded, for a huge upgrade, no less, it’s not off the table that any of these three guys can be moved. I just don’t think all 3 of them will be. They may have to explore other options to get rid of them, and I could see both Elvis and Grubauer being buyouts in the coming offseason. Gibson probably won’t be bought out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were to be.

 

[The Duck Knight]

One of them will be in Colorado by the deadline. Probably Gibson because Dostal can keep Georgiev on the bench where he belongs.

 

[PullHard]

Are guys like current day Gibson and Merzlikins an upgrade on Lyon, Talbot, or a healthy Husso? My immediate reaction as a Wings fan is “what’s coming with those guys to take on those cap hits?” I’d rather Yzerman keep cycling through placeholders until Cossa and/or Augustine are ready than saddle the team with a bad goalie on a worse contract.

 

[JoeSakic13]

Yeah I think this is the year that Colorado makes a trade to land someone better between the pipes.

Out of those 3 I’d hope for Gibson, but his value has plummeted the last couple years in Anaheim. Is it that he’s cooked or that he needs a better team in front of him? Hoping it’s the latter.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Are guys like current day Gibson and Merzlikins an upgrade on Lyon, Talbot, or a healthy Husso? My immediate reaction as a Wings fan is “what’s coming with those guys to take on those cap hits?” I’d rather Yzerman keep cycling through placeholders until Cossa and/or Augustine are ready than saddle the team with a bad goalie on a worse contract.

Something that comes to mind is:

Husso (expiring) + Holl (2 yrs negative value)
for
Grubauer (3 yrs)

Doesn't work with the cap, even with Holl buried in the AHL, but you can keep him in the AHL and retain on both goalies and it works. Grubauer @ 90% for Husso @ 60% and Holl (buried) works out to Detroit taking on only $210,000 cap for the year and then Seattle retaining only $590,000 per year for the 2 years after. Detroit also gets Grubauer 10% cheaper cap in the 2 seasons after this one.

Cossa replaces Talbot. Augustine replaces Grubauer. Swap Holl's definitely bad contract for Grubauer which maybe or may not be a bad contract, depending on how he plays in Detroit.

You can use roughly the same framework for Gibson or Merzlikins too.

 

[duckpuck]

Something that comes to mind is:

Husso (expiring) + Holl (2 yrs negative value)
for
Grubauer (3 yrs)

Doesn't work with the cap, even with Holl buried in the AHL, but you can keep him in the AHL and retain on both goalies and it works. Grubauer @ 90% for Husso @ 60% and Holl (buried) works out to Detroit taking on only $210,000 cap for the year and then Seattle retaining only $590,000 per year for the 2 years after. Detroit also gets Grubauer 10% cheaper cap in the 2 seasons after this one.

Cossa replaces Talbot. Augustine replaces Grubauer. Swap Holl's definitely bad contract for Grubauer which maybe or may not be a bad contract, depending on how he plays in Detroit.

You can use roughly the same framework for Gibson or Merzlikins too.

I don't see why the ducks make this type of trade for Gibson. They don't need to trade him for what amounts to Holl (negative value at a position where they already have a log jam) and 1 season of a backup goalie. There'd have to be a pretty significant add. I don't think they're that desperate to move Gibson and his contract.

If Gibson can play a bit better - which I think he will on an improved Ducks team - his contract isn't that bad given what has happened in the goalie market. Ullmark - whose numbers were inflated by playing on a very good defensive team - just got 4 x $8.25M. Gibson is 3 x $6.4M (and the ducks could retain).

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Calgary will take on any of them, no retention needed but you will have to pay us in assets.

Grubauer is probably a buyout next summer, barring an up year.

Buying out Grub would only save them like 1.7M for next season. I can't imagine they would go that route if they are trying to compete