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[Sensung]

Would you move Chabot with Ryan? What about our pick this year if it's a top 3-5 pick int he draft?

It's going to cost a ridiculous amount to get someone to take that contract. There has never been a comparable contract dumped in the cap era.

Not if you retain on Ryan's contract

 

[BonkTastic]

Not if you retain on Ryan's contract

I fail to see the point in retaining on Ryan just to get rid of Ryan.

He's not a terrible player, just an overpaid one. Even if we retain 50% on his $5.5mil base salary in a trade (because you can't retain on signing bonus money), we're eating $2.75mil a year on Ryan, which makes Ryan a $4.5mil/year player for the rest of his contract.

Bobby Ryan is probably worth $4.5mil assuming he can stay reasonably healthy, which is always the rub with him). If he were being paid that here, we'd probably have far less issues with him.

If we keep Bobby Ryan, we are paying him $2.75mil more than he's worth. If we trade him at 50% retention, we are still paying Bobby Ryan that same amount more than he's worth, but now with one less player on the roster.

If we consider $2.75mil a completely sunk cost on Bobby Ryan, that we are going to pay regardless of whether he plays for our team or not in the scenario where we have to retain to trade him, then the economics of the trade start to look questionable, IMO.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Not if you retain on Ryan's contract

I disagree.

I don't see how that's productive. We'd still have to move a big asset with him even if we retained, and then if we did retain we're out both a big asset, and we still have dead salary (albeit less) on the books.

What is a plausible trade that you think would be out there that would allow us to dump Ryan without take too much salary back?

 

[BonkTastic]

There has never been a comparable contract dumped in the cap era.

I would argue that Phaneuf got traded twice, which might be a decent comparable.

The leafs had to take back about $14mil in bad contracts to rid themselves of Phaneuf to us, and we had to take back $13mil(ish) in a terrible Gaborik contract and retain 25% to get rid of him to LA.

There's your baseline.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The Sens have to get out of being cash strapped so they can re-sign Karlsson, Duchene and Stone. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and pay the price for bad past decisions so (Dahlin aside) imo they should seriously consider offering up this year's 1st (if top 10) and Ryan (no salary retention) in exchange for the other team's 1st plus a 1 year bad contract (but only 1 year) to make it more palatable.

This is a fair proposal, but I'd be surprised if we got a late 1st back. Depends ultimately on where our pick is I guess.

I think the Rangers would probably be a match if we wanted to move something like 5+Ryan to them for a very soft return, maybe a 3rd round pick. They are in a rebuild and have deep enough pockets to compliance buyout Ryan if there is a lockout that provides that option.

I brought up this concept in the trade thread, but I think we're at a point where if we want to keep Karlsson, we have to effectively trade for him ourselves by giving up assets to get teams to take Ryan and Gaborik.

Whether or not people believe this to be true, I was curious in the trade thread to hear what people would give up in this scenario. Would people give up Chabot+White or 5th overall+White to dump Ryan+Gaborik and in turn be able to keep Karlsson and actually have the salary structure to remain competitive? Or would giving up 2-3 of our top young players set us back too far to not make it viable?

 

[Sensung]

I disagree.

I don't see how that's productive. We'd still have to move a big asset with him even if we retained, and then if we did retain we're out both a big asset, and we still have dead salary (albeit less) on the books.

What is a plausible trade that you think would be out there that would allow us to dump Ryan without take too much salary back?

I'd look for an expiring contract with a year remaining.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I would argue that Phaneuf got traded twice, which might be a decent comparable.

The leafs had to take back about $14mil in bad contracts to rid themselves of Phaneuf to us, and we had to take back $13mil(ish) in a terrible Gaborik contract and retain 25% to get rid of him to LA.

There's your baseline.

I'm not sure we'll be able to find as perfect of a storm as the first Phaneuf trade, especially since at that time Phaneuf was still thought to be a #3/4 D-man, which has a lot of value in itself, only that he was overpaid. At this point, Ryan's a skilled forward who is only good for 30 points since he is constantly either hurt or playing hurt. He's a legit albatross, Phaneuf was just overpaid.

The Senators BADLY needed a top 4 Dman, and they had significant short term dead salary that would prevent them from otherwise adding one via trade or free agency (as if we were going to attract a big free agent....), and TOR was right at the start of a rebuild that allowed them to leverage their excess cap space in the short term to dump Phaneuf.

I can't think of any comparable situation that could come up to that and allow us to dump Ryan.

The second Phaneuf trade was more a shuffling of the chairs since we only cleared a negligible amount of money. I'm talking about a trade similar to Bolland (who was insured) being dumped to ARZ for with ARZ getting Crouse for some draft picks. Trades where significant cap/money isn't coming back because I don't think the Senators can stomach that.

I'm sure there would be options out there similar to the 2nd Gaborik trade, where we shuffle the chairs so to speak, but don't really end up clearing much money. That doesn't help the Senators in this context though, because they need to actually clear significant money so they can retain Karl+Duchene+Stone and be able to fill holes else where salary wise, not just move it around like they did in the Phaneuf trade.

If we want to dump Ryan on his own in a productive way that actually clears a significant amount of his salary, I think the two teams who would be targets would be VGK and NYR. I also think it would cost us an A+ prospect. The only two A+ prospects we have are Thomas Chabot, and depending on how high we pick, whoever we'd get with the 2018 pick.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'd look for an expiring contract with a year remaining.

I don't understand though.

Are you suggesting, someone would take Bobby Ryan at 4 x 7.25M AAV (7.5M salary) for an expiring contract?

I don't think that's plausible to expect a team to take on a longer cap albatross to get rid of an expiring one.....

 

[Sensung]

I don't understand though.

Are you suggesting, someone would take Bobby Ryan at 4 x 7.25M AAV (7.5M salary) for an expiring contract?

I don't think that's plausible to expect a team to take on a longer cap albatross to get rid of an expiring one.....

Ryan plus another medium asset.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Ryan plus another medium asset.

Unless by medium level asset, you mean our pick this year or Thomas Chabot, there's absolutely zero chance another team does that. If it was that easy to dump Ryan, he'd be gone by now and we wouldn't have even gotten to discussing the prospect of lumping him in with Karlsson.

FLA gave up a player drafted 11th overall the previous year for a 2nd+3rd to get out of a contract that only cost ARZ under 1M in actual money.

The Devils got a 2nd round pick to take on the final year of Marc Savard's contract from FLA. He had a roughly 4M cap hit which could be placed on LTIR, and he was only owed around 500k in real money, significantly less if his contract was insured.

Those are two recent cap/salary dumping oriented trades that show your perception of what it'd take to dump Ryan is out of line with what it'd actually cost.

It's hard to say what it'll actually cost because no team has ever successfully found a way to get out of that kind of contract except the previously mentioned Phaneuf from TOR to OTT trade, but that was a different beast since Phaneuf was still a valuable player, and it was a perfect storm where TOR could take on significant short term cap dumps as a consolation to OTT. Not only is there not a team in the same position as OTT was in, but OTT is not in a position right now to take on those kind of short term cap dumps. That, and Ryan is nowhere near as valuable as Phaneuf was at the time.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think we should wait and see what the budget looks like. We have a lot of young guys on ELCs that need ice time and Ryan is a solid player when he plays.

I'd like to see us keep him for a few more years and then consider trading him when some of the young guns need their second contracts.

As of now we don't know what the numbers are going forward so it's a bit of a waste coming up with scenarios. The best case one is we keep Ryan and he sorts out his finger issues and plays like we've seen this last year or so. We need that player more than we need to trade assets to be rid of him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Dorion also states;

“We’re going to look at adding some scouts and player development people, but we want to look at adding the proper personnel. We don’t want to hire a bunch of people that don’t know what they’re doing. We’ve got to make sure we have the proper people to build this into a really solid dynasty.”

There are a lot of good hockey people around. IMO a guy like Don Hay would be a good add in player development / hockey ops.

 

[TheNewEra]

Dorion also states;

There are a lot of good hockey people around. IMO a guy like Don Hay would be a good add in player development / hockey ops.

if he costs more then $11.40 an hour he will be too expensive for us

 

[albator71]

With generational EK and solid goaltending we're a bubble team.

wow! thats scary in a bad way.

 

[Karl Prime]

wow! thats scary in a bad way.

The good news is that with good goaltending and the usual EK, along with Duchene and Stone, there are enough talented prospects in the organization that could serve as good depth in 1-3 years and really change the team for the better.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

if he costs more then $11.40 an hour he will be too expensive for us

More than $11.40 an hour???

Dude, the Government forced the minimum wage up by 22% on January 1st this year, it's $14.00 now.

(insert Melnyk joke svp)

 

[Engineer]

More than $11.40 and hour???

It’s an hour.
Your abnoxious posts would be annoying if they weren’t so predictably pathetic.

 

[Tundraman]

I think we should wait and see what the budget looks like. We have a lot of young guys on ELCs that need ice time and Ryan is a solid player when he plays.

I'd like to see us keep him for a few more years and then consider trading him when some of the young guns need their second contracts.

As of now we don't know what the numbers are going forward so it's a bit of a waste coming up with scenarios. The best case one is we keep Ryan and he sorts out his finger issues and plays like we've seen this last year or so. We need that player more than we need to trade assets to be rid of him.

No matter what the cap is Melnyk won't go near it so I don't expect a lot more money being spent on players unless gate receipts go up significantly and there isn't really that much room for it to go up between the current ticket sales and some magical upper number. Roughly 2000 more seats at $100 means what? $8M for the whole season? That might cover off EK and Stone but they need money for Duchene who also has one year left on his deal and so does Dzingel. Then there is Ceci who is an RFA this summer. The only meaningful contract that will end next season when the big 3 contracts would kick in is Burrows at $2.5M but the net saving is only about $1.5M and I'm not sure if that's enough to offset Dzingel.

I like Ryan but he has the most single potential for savings so that's who Dorion has to target if he wants to keep it to minimum moves. Unfortunately it will mean at the very least taking back a one year bad deal and also giving up a fairly valuable asset such as our 1st rounder this year. Giving away the 1st pick who wouldn't likely play for the Sens for a few years would kick the pain down the road. Instead of our pick, Ceci could be a piece to add with Ryan since he still has value but the Sens are so thin at right D I don't think they can survive the loss for next season when they don't have their 1st pick (if they take this one). On top of that Ryan plus Ceci would put another team in a bind unless they can afford to buy out Ryan immediately. Smith plus Ryan wouldn't do it and I doubt Pageau plus Ryan would do it either. Each of those guys traded on their own would have to be replaced and they might net about $2M a piece. The Sens could try to do it piecemeal like that but boy would they ever have a young team trading away most of their experience. They already have to pay 25% of Phaneuf's salary for 3 years (extremely poor deal with Gaborik coming back too) so adding any buyouts like Gaborik will only make them even more cash poor than they already are. Getting someone to take Gaborik would probably cost a good junior player or our top pick if it doesn't go with Ryan. Does anyone really want Dorion to sell any one of the 1st, White, Chabot or Formenton, etc... just to save hockey ops some cash to dump Gaborik's salary for 3 years?

Any way you slice it there will be financial pain if they plan on keeping their top 3-4 pending UFA and there will be serious fan pain if they trade any one of EK, Stone or Duchene because they can't clear enough money.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I will listen to this as I fall asleep in spite of being afraid that Pierre Dorion will enter my subconscious and high five my dreams.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Dorion also states;

There are a lot of good hockey people around. IMO a guy like Don Hay would be a good add in player development / hockey ops.

IIRC Don Hay left the Vancouver Giants HC position in 2015 to return to Kamloops for family reasons. Don't know if he would be willing to move across the country...it is a nice thought though.

 

[solidprospect]

Here is a question.

Is Erik Karlsson worth taking up %5-6 of the teams salary cap? I know my answer.

 

[Tuna99]

Here is a question.

Is Erik Karlsson worth taking up %5-6 of the teams salary cap? I know my answer.

Yes

 

[The Lewler]

Here is a question.

Is Erik Karlsson worth taking up %5-6 of the teams salary cap? I know my answer.

Yes all day.

 

[BondraTime]

Here is a question.

Is Erik Karlsson worth taking up %5-6 of the teams salary cap? I know my answer.

I'd say so, Hoffman is taking up 7% though, may need to move him. Can't have anyone making more than Karl.