Value of: Dawson Mercer

[Wattsburgh]

Anyone you want from Pittsburgh. I love Mercer.

 

[PAZ]

23 year old winger, 2 more years after this one at $4 million then still RFA. Can play center in a pinch, but has not been good at it at the NHL level.

Couple of notes:
- only would trade him in a package for an upgrade at forward.
- wouldn't trade him for a rental
- would not trade him simply for a draft pick(s)
- the Devils are tight against the cap

Just seeing what opposing fans peg his value at.

In my ideal scenario, I would love to package him with one of Seamus Casey or even Simon Nemec to get a young impact winger to play with Hughes and Bratt, but not sure how realistic that would be.

So essentially you're asking for a ~PPG winger that is making less than $4 mil. There's maybe 5 players that fit that bill.

After looking at the list I can name 2 wingers: Michkov and Protas (unsustainable production). Mayyyybe you add a few more names like Batherson if you consider retained salary.

 

[SladeWilson23]

meh, I just don't agree. Why do Hughes and Bratt not belong in a PK role? Bratt killed penalties as a rookie.

Why would you WANT Bratt or Hughes playing the pk?

 

[Fjordy]

Peterka

 

[David71]

brock boeser?

 

[dgibb10]

Why would you WANT Bratt or Hughes playing the pk?

Idk then you can pump their egos and use

"insert player kills penalties" in an argument regardless of whether they're good at it or not.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Why would you WANT Bratt or Hughes playing the pk?

Because they're both very good at it. Well, at least Bratt is very good at it.

Hughes is still learning. It's a position he's never had to play before but the early results are encouraging.

 

[dgibb10]

Because they're both very good at it. Well, at least Bratt is very good at it.

Hughes is still learning. It's a position he's never had to play before but the early results are encouraging.

They are not "very good at it".

They generate some exciting chances on it, but that is not what a PK needs.

Don't judge a PK by how many short handed chances they get.

 

[Nico Hischier]

Why would you WANT Bratt or Hughes playing the pk?

Last game against Toronto featured Bratt Hughes marner and Mathews all playing lots of PK

 

[dgibb10]

Last game against Toronto featured Bratt Hughes marner and Mathews all playing lots of PK

Bratt and Hughes being forced to PK is a byproduct of the current lack of PKers in NJD with Lazar hurt, not because they are good at it.

NJD should be ADDING a PKer via trade, and inserting Lazar back in.

Hischier, Haula, Mercer Lazar, trade. Maybe Bratt if you can find an opportunity against a more gassed group of PP guys late in a kill

 

[AfroThunder396]

They are not "very good at it".

They generate some exciting chances on it, but that is not what a PK needs.

Don't judge a PK by how many short handed chances they get.

It has nothing to do with sort handed chances. Don't make assumptions based on how I'm forming my opinions.

Look at the data:

Of NHL forwards with +20 minutes on the PK this season (179 forwards), Bratt is:

14th in shots against/60 (92nd percentile)
37th in xGA/60 (79th percentile)
46th in scoring chances against/60 (74th percentile)
63rd in high danger chances against/60 (64th percentile)
66th in Fenwick against/60 (63rd percentile)

His Corsi against per 60 is not great, but that's because the Devils block a ton of shots against on the PK - the Devils are 4th in blocked shots on the PK and 5th in blocked shots/60 o the PK this year. They let teams shoot on them but those shots are generally bad quality.

Jesper Bratt is at the very worst an above average PK forward who prevents chances on the PK better than most NHL forwards. The data are very clear on this. Now, if you want to argue that his ice time should be saved for ES and PP situations, that's an entirely different discussion.

Regarding Jack - yeah, early results haven't been good at all. But this is the first time in his career he's ever been asked to PK and there will certainly be a learning curve that comes with it. But he certainly changes the way the point shooters operate on the PP, even though that can't be quantified statistically.

And to relate this back to Dawson Mercer, here are Mercer's stats under the same parameters:

64th in shots against/60 (64th percentile)
129th in xGA/60 (38th percentile)
64th in scoring chances against/60 (64th percentile)
143rd in high danger chances against/60 (20th percentile)
80th in Fenwick against/60 (55th percentile)

So the guy that we absolutely can't trade because it would devastate the PK is worse on the PK than Bratt in every area. If anything, Bratt being used on the PK is one of the things making Mercer expendable, since Mercer doesn't really do anything at ES anymore.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

It has nothing to do with sort handed chances. Don't make assumptions based on how I'm forming my opinions.

Look at the data:

Of NHL forwards with +20 minutes on the PK this season (179 forwards), Bratt is:

14th in shots against/60 (92nd percentile)
37th in xGA/60 (79th percentile)
46th in scoring chances against/60 (74th percentile)
63rd in high danger chances against/60 (64th percentile)
66th in Fenwick against/60 (63rd percentile)

His Corsi against per 60 is not great, but that's because the Devils block a ton of shots against on the PK - the Devils are 4th in blocked shots on the PK and 5th in blocked shots/60 o the PK this year. They let teams shoot on them but those shots are generally bad quality.

Jesper Bratt is at the very worst an above average PK forward who prevents chances on the PK better than most NHL forwards. The data are very clear on this. Now, if you want to argue that his ice time should be saved for ES and PP situations, that's an entirely different discussion.

Regarding Jack - yeah, early results haven't been good at all. But this is the first time in his career he's ever been asked to PK and there will certainly be a learning curve that comes with it. But he certainly changes the way the point shooters operate on the PP, even though that can't be quantified statistically.

And to relate this back to Dawson Mercer, here are Mercer's stats under the same parameters:

64th in shots against/60 (64th percentile)
129th in xGA/60 (38th percentile)
64th in scoring chances against/60 (64th percentile)
143rd in high danger chances against/60 (20th percentile)
80th in Fenwick against/60 (55th percentile)

So the guy that we absolutely can't trade because it would devastate the PK is worse on the PK than Bratt in every area. If anything, Bratt being used on the PK is one of the things making Mercer expendable, since Mercer doesn't really do anything at ES anymore.

Laughable if you think that because of numbers that Bratt is better on the PK than Mercer. I'll ask you this, on the PK, who are the first two forwards over the boards? It's almost always Nico and Mercer. This means they are getting PP1 at full energy. Bratt shows up in either the 2nd or 3rd wave, this means he's getting either PP1 on the back end of their shift or PP2 on the regular.

As for Mercer not being tradeable, I don't think that's what anyone is attempting to say. He certainly is tradeable, but he doesn't have the value to bring back a true top 6 player that can replicate what he does on the PK.

 

[MasterofGrond]

ah so Mercer is putting up mid numbers while also getting carried by the Devils best defensive forward. Interesting.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Why would you WANT Bratt or Hughes playing the pk?

why wouldnt I want good players playing on the PK? Is that a serious question?

There is this weird notion that flashy offensive skilled players can't be good defensively or can't kill penalties. That is not true.

Laughable if you think that because of numbers that Bratt is better on the PK than Mercer. I'll ask you this, on the PK, who are the first two forwards over the boards? It's almost always Nico and Mercer. This means they are getting PP1 at full energy. Bratt shows up in either the 2nd or 3rd wave, this means he's getting either PP1 on the back end of their shift or PP2 on the regular.

As for Mercer not being tradeable, I don't think that's what anyone is attempting to say. He certainly is tradeable, but he doesn't have the value to bring back a true top 6 player that can replicate what he does on the PK.

my entire point is that I think his value around the league might be higher than the quality of player he actually is. He is not a good defensive player despite what I think his perceived value is.

I really dont give a shit about the PK if I am being honest. You can always find guys to play there. Making your decision based on that is silly.

 

[Xirik]

Wow, a highly specific type of trade where people are just giving bad proposals and trolls will use to say "mercer sucks".

didn't see that coming.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

my entire point is that I think his value around the league might be higher than the quality of player he actually is. He is not a good defensive player despite what I think his perceived value is.

I really dont give a shit about the PK if I am being honest. You can always find guys to play there. Making your decision based on that is silly.

You started this thread by saying "he hasn't been good at the NHL level" He's played 3 full seasons and averaged 21 goals per season, this isn't "good" to you. He is one of the most relied upon penalty killer on a team that is one of the best at killing penalties, you give him zero credit for this and think anyone could replace him.
You can't present him as a turd sandwich and expect people to offer a steak.

I'd be fine with trading him, but I don't think he has enough value on his own to get a better player. I'm also not fine with trading him because "he needs a change of scenery" if he's not part of a package bringing a better player, I wouldn't move him and mess with chemistry him and Nico have on the PK.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You started this thread by saying "he hasn't been good at the NHL level" He's played 3 full seasons and averaged 21 goals per season, this isn't "good" to you. He is one of the most relied upon penalty killer on a team that is one of the best at killing penalties, you give him zero credit for this and think anyone could replace him.
You can't present him as a turd sandwich and expect people to offer a steak.

I'd be fine with trading him, but I don't think he has enough value on his own to get a better player. I'm also not fine with trading him because "he needs a change of scenery" if he's not part of a package bringing a better player, I wouldn't move him and mess with chemistry him and Nico have on the PK.

he hasn't been good AT CENTER at the NHL level, which is absolutely 100% a fact. He has sucked ass there.

He is still a good young player. He is very inconsistent which drives me mad, but maybe would do well with a change of scenery. I wasnt expecting to get a star winger for him straight up.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Because they're both very good at it. Well, at least Bratt is very good at it.

Hughes is still learning. It's a position he's never had to play before but the early results are encouraging.

He might be good at it, I just prefer they focus on offense.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

he hasn't been good AT CENTER at the NHL level, which is absolutely 100% a fact. He has sucked ass there.

He is still a good young player. He is very inconsistent which drives me mad, but maybe would do well with a change of scenery. I wasnt expecting to get a star winger for him straight up.

I see, yep I read that wrong, and agree he hasn't shown he can be a center at the NHL leve. I don't agree with him being inconsistent though unless you're strictly speaking about production. He gives you the exact same thing night after night, a relentless motor, who is very good on the PK. To me he's like Blake Coleman or a lesser John Madden back in the day, not great players but great at what they do.

I guess maybe I'm imposing my own logic into what you're thinking as you've mentioned you'd add him to Nemec or Casey and there is no chance I'd agree to that, at least not for a player any team would trade. The only guy I'd think about adding Mercer + Nemec/Casey that could be available would be Brady. I wouldn't give up even more of the depth just for the sake of making a deal.

 

[amikaro]

Mercer has great attitude, energy and skill. Lots of teams want that. So do the Devils. So it doesn't seem to happen.

I'd be surprised to see a proposal bringing motion in.

Peterka? Hmmm ... Intetesting. Don't know him enough. But sounds like similar value.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Laughable if you think that because of numbers that Bratt is better on the PK than Mercer. I'll ask you this, on the PK, who are the first two forwards over the boards? It's almost always Nico and Mercer. This means they are getting PP1 at full energy. Bratt shows up in either the 2nd or 3rd wave, this means he's getting either PP1 on the back end of their shift or PP2 on the regular.

As for Mercer not being tradeable, I don't think that's what anyone is attempting to say. He certainly is tradeable, but he doesn't have the value to bring back a true top 6 player that can replicate what he does on the PK.

You don't put your best two PKers out on the same shift because then your second unit sucks. Hischier is your PK1 center, your PK2 center is Erik Haula who needs a lot more help than Hischier does. C1 goes with W2 and W1 goes with C2 to balance out the units otherwise PK2 is going to get blown up.

Siegenthaler is 4th on the Devils defense in PK TOI/game and I'd argue he's probably the 2nd best PK guy after Pesce. Both Pesce and Siegnthaler are below Kovacevic in PK TOI, and Siegenthaler is also behind Dillon. This argument doesn't hold any water.

You cannot be good at the PK if you chase as much as Mercer does, he gets caught going down low and ignoring the open man way too often. I understand that it looks like he's trying really hard out there when he skates but that doesn't make him a good penalty killer. People thought Zach Parise was an elite PKer too and he he had the same issues, he was a dog chasing cars and was largely a product of getting carried by Zajac.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

You don't put your best two PKers out on the same shift because then your second unit sucks. Hischier is your PK1 center, your PK2 center is Erik Haula who needs a lot more help than Hischier does. C1 goes with W2 and W1 goes with C2 to balance out the units otherwise PK2 is going to get blown up.

Siegenthaler is 4th on the Devils defense in PK TOI/game and I'd argue he's probably the 2nd best PK guy after Pesce. Both Pesce and Siegnthaler are below Kovacevic in PK TOI, and Siegenthaler is also behind Dillon. This argument doesn't hold any water.

You cannot be good at the PK if you chase as much as Mercer does, he gets caught going down low and ignoring the open man way too often. I understand that it looks like he's trying really hard out there when he skates but that doesn't make him a good penalty killer. People thought Zach Parise was an elite PKer too and he he had the same issues, he was a dog chasing cars and was largely a product of getting carried by Zajac.

I disagree but it's pointless to continue this discussion.

 

[Hisch13r]

He might be good at it, I just prefer they focus on offense.

A guy can do both.

 

[dgibb10]

It has nothing to do with sort handed chances. Don't make assumptions based on how I'm forming my opinions.

Look at the data:

Of NHL forwards with +20 minutes on the PK this season (179 forwards), Bratt is:

14th in shots against/60 (92nd percentile)
37th in xGA/60 (79th percentile)
46th in scoring chances against/60 (74th percentile)
63rd in high danger chances against/60 (64th percentile)
66th in Fenwick against/60 (63rd percentile)

His Corsi against per 60 is not great, but that's because the Devils block a ton of shots against on the PK - the Devils are 4th in blocked shots on the PK and 5th in blocked shots/60 o the PK this year. They let teams shoot on them but those shots are generally bad quality.

Jesper Bratt is at the very worst an above average PK forward who prevents chances on the PK better than most NHL forwards. The data are very clear on this. Now, if you want to argue that his ice time should be saved for ES and PP situations, that's an entirely different discussion.

Regarding Jack - yeah, early results haven't been good at all. But this is the first time in his career he's ever been asked to PK and there will certainly be a learning curve that comes with it. But he certainly changes the way the point shooters operate on the PP, even though that can't be quantified statistically.

And to relate this back to Dawson Mercer, here are Mercer's stats under the same parameters:

64th in shots against/60 (64th percentile)
129th in xGA/60 (38th percentile)
64th in scoring chances against/60 (64th percentile)
143rd in high danger chances against/60 (20th percentile)
80th in Fenwick against/60 (55th percentile)

So the guy that we absolutely can't trade because it would devastate the PK is worse on the PK than Bratt in every area. If anything, Bratt being used on the PK is one of the things making Mercer expendable, since Mercer doesn't really do anything at ES anymore.

Important note.

Mercer (and Hischier) play against opposing teams (fresh) PP1s while starting off a draw in his own zone. Bratt against PP2s/tired PP1s after a clear.

They are not doing the same type of PKing

 

[dgibb10]

You don't put your best two PKers out on the same shift because then your second unit sucks. Hischier is your PK1 center, your PK2 center is Erik Haula who needs a lot more help than Hischier does. C1 goes with W2 and W1 goes with C2 to balance out the units otherwise PK2 is going to get blown up.

Siegenthaler is 4th on the Devils defense in PK TOI/game and I'd argue he's probably the 2nd best PK guy after Pesce. Both Pesce and Siegnthaler are below Kovacevic in PK TOI, and Siegenthaler is also behind Dillon. This argument doesn't hold any water.

You cannot be good at the PK if you chase as much as Mercer does, he gets caught going down low and ignoring the open man way too often. I understand that it looks like he's trying really hard out there when he skates but that doesn't make him a good penalty killer. People thought Zach Parise was an elite PKer too and he he had the same issues, he was a dog chasing cars and was largely a product of getting carried by Zajac.

You must think Keefe is a moron for sending out 3 PKers who you believe should be on PK2 out against opposing teams top PPs every night?

Also, by claiming Pesce and Kovacevic as our best PKers (who play against PP2 and more generally with Bratt) it kinda defeats your entire claim of Bratt playing with worse PKers.