Wattsburgh
Registered User
- Apr 3, 2023
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- 292
Value of: Dawson Mercer
- Thread starter Zajacs Bowl Cut
- Start date
So essentially you're asking for a ~PPG winger that is making less than $4 mil. There's maybe 5 players that fit that bill.
After looking at the list I can name 2 wingers: Michkov and Protas (unsustainable production). Mayyyybe you add a few more names like Batherson if you consider retained salary.
Idk then you can pump their egos and use
"insert player kills penalties" in an argument regardless of whether they're good at it or not.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
Because they're both very good at it. Well, at least Bratt is very good at it.
Hughes is still learning. It's a position he's never had to play before but the early results are encouraging.
They are not "very good at it".
They generate some exciting chances on it, but that is not what a PK needs.
Don't judge a PK by how many short handed chances they get.
Last game against Toronto featured Bratt Hughes marner and Mathews all playing lots of PK
Bratt and Hughes being forced to PK is a byproduct of the current lack of PKers in NJD with Lazar hurt, not because they are good at it.
NJD should be ADDING a PKer via trade, and inserting Lazar back in.
Hischier, Haula, Mercer Lazar, trade. Maybe Bratt if you can find an opportunity against a more gassed group of PP guys late in a kill
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
It has nothing to do with sort handed chances. Don't make assumptions based on how I'm forming my opinions.
Look at the data:
Of NHL forwards with +20 minutes on the PK this season (179 forwards), Bratt is:
14th in shots against/60 (92nd percentile)
37th in xGA/60 (79th percentile)
46th in scoring chances against/60 (74th percentile)
63rd in high danger chances against/60 (64th percentile)
66th in Fenwick against/60 (63rd percentile)
His Corsi against per 60 is not great, but that's because the Devils block a ton of shots against on the PK - the Devils are 4th in blocked shots on the PK and 5th in blocked shots/60 o the PK this year. They let teams shoot on them but those shots are generally bad quality.
Jesper Bratt is at the very worst an above average PK forward who prevents chances on the PK better than most NHL forwards. The data are very clear on this. Now, if you want to argue that his ice time should be saved for ES and PP situations, that's an entirely different discussion.
Regarding Jack - yeah, early results haven't been good at all. But this is the first time in his career he's ever been asked to PK and there will certainly be a learning curve that comes with it. But he certainly changes the way the point shooters operate on the PP, even though that can't be quantified statistically.
And to relate this back to Dawson Mercer, here are Mercer's stats under the same parameters:
64th in shots against/60 (64th percentile)
129th in xGA/60 (38th percentile)
64th in scoring chances against/60 (64th percentile)
143rd in high danger chances against/60 (20th percentile)
80th in Fenwick against/60 (55th percentile)
So the guy that we absolutely can't trade because it would devastate the PK is worse on the PK than Bratt in every area. If anything, Bratt being used on the PK is one of the things making Mercer expendable, since Mercer doesn't really do anything at ES anymore.
HugeInTheShire
You may not like me but, I'm Huge in the Shire
Laughable if you think that because of numbers that Bratt is better on the PK than Mercer. I'll ask you this, on the PK, who are the first two forwards over the boards? It's almost always Nico and Mercer. This means they are getting PP1 at full energy. Bratt shows up in either the 2nd or 3rd wave, this means he's getting either PP1 on the back end of their shift or PP2 on the regular.
As for Mercer not being tradeable, I don't think that's what anyone is attempting to say. He certainly is tradeable, but he doesn't have the value to bring back a true top 6 player that can replicate what he does on the PK.
