This is so wrong headed, I don't know where to begin. How do you think people develop confidence to begin with?
You can be the most confident guy in the world and not make the NHL.
Guys who make the NHL are ones who can demonstrate results. Those results in turn usually produce confidence in the player. Confidence doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Lafleur talked about it a lot. If you don't have confidence in yourself, you will never produce. You need opportunity. Opportunity leads to success. This leads to confidence and - hopefully - better results.
What are you learning by being called up to the NHL and sitting on the bench? What are you learning when you're played with scrubs for five minutes a night? You're learning that maybe you weren't as good as you thought you were. Doubt creeps in. Results fall off. We saw this over and over here.
I'm very confident that Joshua Roy would've been called up by now under MB. He'd probably have been used on the 4th line with scrubs. That's the way we did things here. Do you think his time in the Q was wasted? Do you think he didn't progress during this time? Do you think he's better for his time there? I do.
Joshua Roy does not have NHL skills as it is right now. Therefore, since he cant cut it right now, he will have to distinguish himself in the AHL, if his career dont go to die there, to have an NHL career. Such is the hard way for most of the young players.
When Joshua Roy will display NHL skills, he won't marinate in the minor. He has not.
The difference is that Slaf has.
As for your 4th paragraph, NHL fringe players will remain NHL fringe players even if they mature in the AHL. I dont know what else to say really. NHL is extremely contingented.
On Lafleur, he said it well, if you don't have confidence in yourself, you will never produce. Exactly what i say, confidence is not the by-product of performance, its the other way around.
I do agree and understand that player can go on hot streak or cold streak. That the mindset can shift and be at times broken. Thats not the inner confidence i am talking.
Caufield under DD vs Caufield under MSL is an example of that.
Would you say that a Porsche lost its power if it simply had a flat tire?
Caufield did not lost his inner confidence. He's like the Porsche who had a small broken piece. He needed a maintenance. A mindset shift.
To be a top tier athlete like that, your mental skill need to be on point to sustain this pressure and this status. Obviously the mindset is variable and they are humans and can go through tough times. Thats not losing your confidence. But yes, players may sometimes benefit from a spark to shift the mindset.
Performance will indeed lead to a better mindset. No doubt. But the inner confidence i am talking is not built by performing in the AHL (one of the argument we hear to have Slaf in the AHL). Its a mental skills that is worked and honed in the mind first and foremost.