D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[TheBeastCoast]

Out of curiosity, when was the last time a prospect missed this much development time and still lived up to their potential?

Morgan Rielly was brought up earlier. Missed most of his draft year with an ACL injury. Went 5th and turned out to be a very good pick.

 

[CanadienShark]

Good size, AGGRESSIVE skater, and great offensive ability. That's a prime 1st overall pick. Unless there are medical concerns, I'd be shocked if he didnt go 1st. Especially with the teams currently near that selection (Chi, SJS). They have the talent up front, now go get the backend set

Chicago? They have talent on defence. Who do they have up front aside from Bedard?

 

[kmwtrucks]

Chicago? They have talent on defence. Who do they have up front aside from Bedard?

I know its all projections but Schafer looks like a top five style # 1 were Lev, rinzel, vlasic KK look more like #2 - #3 then you have kaiser, del mastro allen who look more like #4-#6. If chicago gets # 1 and they really like a forward at #2-#4 they have to make a trade and get another asset. Misa did not look good in playoffs, Hagens is small, Martone and frondell may not play with enough pace to top line guys, drafting #1 and getting a 2nd line forward would be bad.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Long term you think he would be better than vlasic, Korchinski, del mastro, Schaefer, levshunov????

Count how many players that is

Rinzel is better than Korchinski and Del Mastro

And yes thanks for noticing how stacked Chicago is at D

 

[Kevin Musto]

Chicago? They have talent on defence. Who do they have up front aside from Bedard?

The GOAT Frank Nazar

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I can see a team like San Jose picking him #1 but not the Hawks. Misa seems like a better fit there.

 

[19Simon19]

Always appreciate your analysis.

First thing that sticks out to me about Schaefer is his skating. We are talking about Makar, Quinn, Orr level skating here.

Second thing is his vision and judgement while carrying the puck. Seems to make the right move or pass more often than not. Creative, but seems very efficient in his moves, which should wear well in the NHL.

Haven't watched him enough to comment on his puck retrievals, but if they are as good as you say, that's a huge bonus, as I think it's a highly underrated skill for Dmen.

His main weakness appears to be his defending basic line rushes, but that is common with offensively inclined Dmen, as they tend to play the puck rather than the man, as it allows them to go the other way if they can poach the puck. IMO, it's a pretty easy fix to make him better in this regard, especially for a guy with his combo of size/length, and skating. I guess his shot needs to get better, but his ability to find shooting lanes is notable.

Unlike Hughes and Makar, Schaefer already has good size. Remains to be seen how strong he will get, but i am guessing he will be above league average for a Dman once he fills out.

This is high praise, but he looks like Bobby Orr out there. Much more imposing physically than Makar and Hughes during their draft years. I was going to mention Coffey, who was also a great skater with good strength, but Coffey was the 4th Dman taken in his draft year(hard to believe).

Thanks a lot man.

 

[SarniaStingFan]

 

[WarriorofTime]

They'll need him back to have a shot against London's superteam

 

[CrashOut]

He is getting underrated.

Kid is a stud. He has the potential to turn a franchise around.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Just watched his highlights, his upside is incredible and franchise worthy. I see him going to Nashville, but if San Jose has the first pick they gotta take him.

I just think Misa is what Bedard needs considering the Hawks have Korchinski and Levshunov on the blue line. Think it'd be good to give Bedard a winger to grow with like Toews had Kane and Mikita had Hull.

 

[majormajor]

Just watched his highlights, his upside is incredible and franchise worthy. I see him going to Nashville, but if San Jose has the first pick they gotta take him.

I just think Misa is what Bedard needs considering the Hawks have Korchinski and Levshunov on the blue line. Think it'd be good to give Bedard a winger to grow with like Toews had Kane and Mikita had Hull.

This isn't the sort of prospect where you take him IF you have a particular lineup need. There's a big gap, you just have to take him and resolve your lineup imbalances another way.

 

[Putt Pirate]

Just watched his highlights, his upside is incredible and franchise worthy. I see him going to Nashville, but if San Jose has the first pick they gotta take him.

I just think Misa is what Bedard needs considering the Hawks have Korchinski and Levshunov on the blue line. Think it'd be good to give Bedard a winger to grow with like Toews had Kane and Mikita had Hull.

Yes on this. I am not generally in the draft on need front but the Hawks need some offensive sidekicks for Bedard as Lardis, etc. are a couple years out probably. Martone even if we drop or Frondel. We will have to trade a D prospect in the next year or so once they figure out who is in their plans. But getting the D right is the hardest part and the Hawks are pretty set there.

 

[Fatass]

This isn't the sort of prospect where you take him IF you have a particular lineup need. There's a big gap, you just have to take him and resolve your lineup imbalances another way.

Shouldn’t top picks always be based on the (club’s) of BPA and not for positional need? If Schaefer is the BPA, on a club’s board, they should select him.

 

[Castle8130]

Don't care that the Hawks defense is loaded. This kid is far and away the best prospect in this draft. Play him at forward if you need to. He brings size, elite skating, and elite offensive upside. Hawks have no idea if Levshunov or Rinzel are game breakers, but this kid looks like he will be. Levshunov, Rinzel, Vlasic, and Schaefer would be an elite group of defensemen.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

I doubt any team passes on him at #1.
It's always BPA and not "need" at the top of the draft.

Hawks will draft for "need" with Toronto's pick.

 

[Putt Pirate]

Don't care that the Hawks defense is loaded. This kid is far and away the best prospect in this draft. Play him at forward if you need to. He brings size, elite skating, and elite offensive upside. Hawks have no idea if Levshunov or Rinzel are game breakers, but this kid looks like he will be. Levshunov, Rinzel, Vlasic, and Schaefer would be an elite group of defensemen.

That D would make my pants get shorter.

 

[wetcoast]

?????

Yes I think Rinzel has the makings of an elite second pairing type of Dman

 

[Soundgarden]

Just watched his highlights, his upside is incredible and franchise worthy. I see him going to Nashville, but if San Jose has the first pick they gotta take him.

I just think Misa is what Bedard needs considering the Hawks have Korchinski and Levshunov on the blue line. Think it'd be good to give Bedard a winger to grow with like Toews had Kane and Mikita had Hull.

Nashville isn't taking a defenseman with our top pick.

 

[Jacob]

Nashville isn't taking a defenseman with our top pick.

Even if Schaefer is available?

 

[Soundgarden]

Even if Schaefer is available?

Yes. In 27 years the best center we've drafted is David Legwand, we don't get the chance to draft a potentially elite forward talent often. We can find defensemen with our other two 1sts and two 2nds.

 

[JadedRandom]

Yes. In 27 years the best center we've drafted is David Legwand, we don't get the chance to draft a potentially elite forward talent often. We can find defensemen with our other two 1sts and two 2nds.

Which could be a good strategy I guess, depending on who's available.

Except that the TBL and VGK picks are currently slated to be the 24th and 29th picks respectively, and that the players available at those spots will be guys middle-pairing guys like Blake Fiddler and Carter Amico types.

That, or Nashville gets lucky and a player like Logan Hensler or Cameron Reid falls a bit.

If the Predators drafted Schaefer #1 or #2, at the 24th and 29th pick they get to choose between a good number of players (Schmidt, Kindel, Zonnon, Murtagh, Gastrin, Bear if the achilles tear makes him fall, etc.) that I think would be higher-end options to the defensemen possibly available.

Long story short, a Schaefer + choice of forwards would be a better draft haul in my opinion to Misa + choice of defensemen.

 

[Rusty8719]

I doubt any team passes on him at #1.
It's always BPA and not "need" at the top of the draft.

Hawks will draft for "need" with Toronto's pick.

This.

None of the forwards are clear, obvious, homerun picks.

This isn't like a Tavares vs Hedman debate.

This isn't drafting Ekblad or Power because the forwards are bleh.

Schaefer is a gamebreaking player.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Yes. In 27 years the best center we've drafted is David Legwand, we don't get the chance to draft a potentially elite forward talent often. We can find defensemen with our other two 1sts and two 2nds.

It would be mistake. I know you guys want to draft a top center, but this class doesn't have a top center IMO.

Misa may project better as a LW (Patrick Marleau with a bit more to this game). Hagens is Nico Hirschier/Mat Barzal type ceiling maybe a slight bit better, which would be a decent 1C and top end 2C.

Schaefer is giving Scott Niedermayer vibes.

I mean if you gusy win the lottery and pass on Schaefer then power to you, but I think it would be a mistake.

 

[Soundgarden]

Which could be a good strategy I guess, depending on who's available.

Except that the TBL and VGK picks are currently slated to be the 24th and 29th picks respectively, and that the players available at those spots will be guys middle-pairing guys like Blake Fiddler and Carter Amico types.

That, or Nashville gets lucky and a player like Logan Hensler or Cameron Reid falls a bit.

If the Predators drafted Schaefer #1 or #2, at the 24th and 29th pick they get to choose between a good number of players (Schmidt, Kindel, Zonnon, Murtagh, Gastrin, Bear if the achilles tear makes him fall, etc.) that I think would be higher-end options to the defensemen possibly available.

Long story short, a Schaefer + choice of forwards would be a better draft haul in my opinion to Misa + choice of defensemen.

We can find defensemen in the lower rounds, we're known for it. Plus Fiddler is one of the few local kids so I don't mind him.

It would be mistake. I know you guys want to draft a top center, but this class doesn't have a top center IMO.

Misa may project better as a LW (Patrick Marleau with a bit more to this game). Hagens is Nico Hirschier/Mat Barzal type ceiling maybe a slight bit better, which would be a decent 1C and top end 2C.

Schaefer is giving Scott Niedermayer vibes.

I mean if you gusy win the lottery and pass on Schaefer then power to you, but I think it would be a mistake.

We need those types of forwards, we've never really had a homegrown Marleau, Hischier or Barzal, we've had some of the best defensemen in the game.