D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[I am Bettman]

So what’s going on then? Did he have a setback?

McKenzie said 2-3 months in late December.

I believe he had the surgery to put a plate in there, which from my experience would be 3 months recovery to 100% bone strength and anything less than that is risking reinjury. Probably a good idea for him to not come back this year. He should have been able to train with weights for a month-ish at this point.

 

[CowbellConray]

Good size, AGGRESSIVE skater, and great offensive ability. That's a prime 1st overall pick. Unless there are medical concerns, I'd be shocked if he didnt go 1st. Especially with the teams currently near that selection (Chi, SJS). They have the talent up front, now go get the backend set

 

[Kevin Musto]

Especially with the teams currently near that selection (Chi, SJS). They have the talent up front, now go get the backend set

Don't include Chicago in that statement

 

[CowbellConray]

Don't include Chicago in that statement

Fair - I understand they are thin behind Bedard. I'm more saying they drafted their Top forward #1 OVR in Bedard, I think Schaeffer is a tier or two above Leshunov.

 

[Boonk]

Thats just literally the basic timeline you get if you google "clavicle fracture recovery time".

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/clavicle-fractures

I broke my clavicle cleanly when I was like 12. Didn't fully heal for months.

Broke mine in 8th grade falling off a shed playing manhunt lol.

Extremely painful break, and even worse recovery time. The timeline of "2-3 months" is probably what it takes for the bones and tissues there to properly reform and heal, but total recovery time and physio rehab for my break was well over a year+ with degraded physical activities. Well over a decade and into my late 20s I feel weird pains and cracks from my collarbone starting to happen.
Playing any pro or high level sport with a bum shoulder thats been broken without letting it recover and heal is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Broke mine in 8th grade falling off a shed playing manhunt lol.

Extremely painful break, and even worse recovery time. The timeline of "2-3 months" is probably what it takes for the bones and tissues there to properly reform and heal, but total recovery time and physio rehab for my break was well over a year+ with degraded physical activities. Well over a decade and into my late 20s I feel weird pains and cracks from my collarbone starting to happen.
Playing any pro or high level sport with a bum shoulder thats been broken without letting it recover and heal is a disaster waiting to happen.

Agree fully. I did mine as bad as you could do it as an 18 year old. Completely shattered it and it splintered into the muscle. Have a big plate to this day. Was in a sling post surgery for 2.5 months. Full strength recovery was more like 5-7 months. Definitely long term affects though.

I doubt Schaefer’s was as severe but take your time young man.

 

[nergish]

I really really like this kid. Tantalizing skillset that passes every eye test.
Obviously it's a massive shame he's missed so much time this year due to injury. But he's a resilient kid, having lost his mother to cancer and billet mom to apparent suicide. Just comes across as such a bright, level-headed kid despite it all.

Whether he goes #1 or not, I'm just excited to watch his career develop.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I think scouts were sold on him for 1st OA after the Hlinka. Then he comes back from mono and plays great, scoring and shooting on a draft-year Parekh level in a smaller sample, then is Canada’s clear-cut best player in a shortened WJC. It seems too good to be true, to have a defense prospect distance himself from the pack despite a season-ending injury.

If he isn’t skating at his own pace by now, then it’s doubtful Erie will throw him in against London. He’ll probably resume skating shortly and play at the U18s if Erie’s knocked out. Easy travel and IIHF games wont be nearly as physical as an OHL series. My money’s on him returning but not with Erie unless they go on some kind of run.

Edit: Just read on NHL.com that he’s skating but without contact, so it’s all but certain he’s not playing in any of the early games against the Knights.

 

[Mattb124]

The notion that not making an individual’s medical status available to the public is illogical is abject stupidity.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

I feel like there's a disconnect here in terms of 'status update' meaning "give us all the particulars of his specific injury and how said particulars are progressing during his recovery" vs "is he back at full practice / has his coach provided any guesses as to when he might be back." I assume most are referring to the latter, which is perfectly reasonable, imo.

 

[OversKy]

I feel like there's a disconnect here in terms of 'status update' meaning "give us all the particulars of his specific injury and how said particulars are progressing during his recovery" vs "is he back at full practice / has his coach provided any guesses as to when he might be back." I assume most are referring to the latter, which is perfectly reasonable, imo.

"Everyone's collarbone heals differently," Brown said. "It takes some guys longer than others." That's from a month ago from GM Dave Brown.

 

[frontsfan67]

Don't include Chicago in that statement

In all fairness Chicago is a team that could be in on Marner/ehlers/boeser Then the next couple years they won’t be anything super special but they’ll be far better than what they are now with a top 6 of Bedard, Marner/ehlers/boeser, donato, nazar, teravainen, reichel then you still have Oliver Moore, Sacha Boisvert, Nick Lardis, Sam rinzel, marek Vanacker, John mustard, aj spellacy, Jack pridham in system plus 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a 3rd and 2 4ths coming this year

Get that franchise d man, Korchinski and del mastro are good but they’re not probably franchise changing d men like Schaefer could be. Levshunov would be a good #2 alongside Schaefer. Oddly enough levshunov a RHD and Schaefer LHD.

Oh did I mention Spencer knight in goal?? Yeah hawks will be fine. In 2 years they’ll start to battle for the playoffs and in 4-5 they likely are one of the top teams in the west unless some things go to shit like levshunov/schaefer busting, bedard hurt and not the same after, Spencer knight falling off a cliff etc but they have a very sturdy base of prospects right now and they’re on the come up no question about it.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

"Everyone's collarbone heals differently," Brown said. "It takes some guys longer than others." That's from a month ago from GM Dave Brown.

Well good, I didn't see that and I now I have.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

You are a time traveler. What will people be saying about Schaefer’s NHL career 20 years from now?

 

[WarriorofTime]

In all fairness Chicago is a team that could be in on Marner/ehlers/boeser Then the next couple years they won’t be anything super special but they’ll be far better than what they are now with a top 6 of Bedard, Marner/ehlers/boeser, donato, nazar, teravainen, reichel then you still have Oliver Moore, Sacha Boisvert, Nick Lardis, Sam rinzel, marek Vanacker, John mustard, aj spellacy, Jack pridham in system plus 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a 3rd and 2 4ths coming this year

Get that franchise d man, Korchinski and del mastro are good but they’re not probably franchise changing d men like Schaefer could be. Levshunov would be a good #2 alongside Schaefer. Oddly enough levshunov a RHD and Schaefer LHD.

Oh did I mention Spencer knight in goal?? Yeah hawks will be fine. In 2 years they’ll start to battle for the playoffs and in 4-5 they likely are one of the top teams in the west unless some things go to shit like levshunov/schaefer busting, bedard hurt and not the same after, Spencer knight falling off a cliff etc but they have a very sturdy base of prospects right now and they’re on the come up no question about it.

Hawks D is in a pretty good spot already - Vlasic, Levshunov, Korchinski, Rinzel, Kaiser, Del Mastro, Allan, Crevier are young and with various level of good potential. I think if they like Schaefer and have a chance, they'll take him because he could be better than all of them, but I think up front is a bigger need for them right now.

 

[frontsfan67]

Hawks D is in a pretty good spot already - Vlasic, Levshunov, Korchinski, Rinzel, Kaiser, Del Mastro, Allan, Crevier are young and with various level of good potential. I think if they like Schaefer and have a chance, they'll take him because he could be better than all of them, but I think up front is a bigger need for them right now.

None are superstar level potential. A guy like levshunov prob is a guy like Devon Toews. Allstar calibre but not superstar. A guy like Schaefer has Quinn Hughes/cale makar potential.

rest do not compare

Tiers-
Schaefer S (elite/franchise level d man)

Levshunov A (top pairing d man)

Vlasic, Korchinski, Del Mastro B tier (top 4 d men)

Rinzel, Kaiser, Allan, Crevier C (3rd pairing/7th d)

I understand hawks fans and that they want the bright and shiny toy that scored a lot in junior (Misa) but they have a lot of good potential/core forwards already, have the goalie of their future. Defence still not quite that #1 guy. I’d pick Schaefer and go after Marner/ehlers in free agency- if you flunk those 2 get Brock boeser to play top line with Donato and Bedard

Nick Lardis will be coming up to the big league for 2026/27 likely after spending most of 2025/26 with Rockford so insert him into the future top 6 too

 

[frontsfan67]

Hawks D is in a pretty good spot already - Vlasic, Levshunov, Korchinski, Rinzel, Kaiser, Del Mastro, Allan, Crevier are young and with various level of good potential. I think if they like Schaefer and have a chance, they'll take him because he could be better than all of them, but I think up front is a bigger need for them right now.

Schaefer will be pick and they’ll address forward core in free agency

 

[Kevin Musto]

None are superstar level potential. A guy like levshunov prob is a guy like Devon Toews. Allstar calibre but not superstar. A guy like Schaefer has Quinn Hughes/cale makar potential.

rest do not compare

Tiers-
Schaefer S (elite/franchise level d man)

Levshunov A (top pairing d man)

Vlasic, Korchinski, Del Mastro B tier (top 4 d men)

Rinzel, Kaiser, Allan, Crevier (3rd pairing/7th d)

?????

 

[WarriorofTime]

None are superstar level potential. A guy like levshunov prob is a guy like Devon Toews. Allstar calibre but not superstar. A guy like Schaefer has Quinn Hughes/cale makar potential.

rest do not compare

Tiers-
Schaefer S (elite/franchise level d man)

Levshunov A (top pairing d man)

Vlasic, Korchinski, Del Mastro B tier (top 4 d men)

Rinzel, Kaiser, Allan, Crevier C (3rd pairing/7th d)

I understand hawks fans and that they want the bright and shiny toy that scored a lot in junior (Misa) but they have a lot of good potential/core forwards already, have the goalie of their future. Defence still not quite that #1 guy. I’d pick Schaefer and go after Marner/ehlers in free agency- if you flunk those 2 get Brock boeser to play top line with Donato and Bedard

Nick Lardis will be coming up to the big league for 2026/27 likely after spending most of 2025/26 with Rockford so insert him into the future top 6 too

Nah dude I think your read is off. Either too high on hawk fwd prospects or too low on hawk d prospects. Could probably comfortably bump about half the Hawk d up a tier from where you have them. Hawks definitely a pressing need for more forwards with that top line potential where even if they don’t fully hit second line caliber guy. Understand how high Schaefer potential is and hawks may take them but if we’re going back up and talking org need I think 10/10 Hawk fans would say a fwd would be more desired all else equal. Lev being a high potential/high floor RHD really table sets the D nicely, and people are a lot lot higher on Rinzel than him being a future number 7.

 

[frontsfan67]

?????

Long term you think he would be better than vlasic, Korchinski, del mastro, Schaefer, levshunov????

Count how many players that is

 

[frontsfan67]

Nah dude I think your read is off. Either too high on hawk fwd prospects or too low on hawk d prospects. Could probably comfortably bump about half the Hawk d up a tier from where you have them. Hawks definitely a pressing need for more forwards with that top line potential where even if they don’t fully hit second line caliber guy. Understand how high Schaefer potential is and hawks may take them but if we’re going back up and talking org need I think 10/10 Hawk fans would say a fwd would be more desired all else equal. Lev being a high potential/high floor RHD really table sets the D nicely, and people are a lot lot higher on Rinzel than him being a future number 7.

You are a hawks fan. You are biased. I don’t cheer for the hawks, Schaefer or Misa. Completely unbiased.

Who is rinzel going to be better than of the guys I mentioned?? Hate to break it to you but every prospect you draft isn’t the next bobby orr. This is like years ago when the Habs thought every one of their prospects would hit and be a star. Guys like Joshua Roy, Owen Beck, Logan mallioux etc. what are they doing now?

That’s like if I was a leafs fan and I’d say oh marners never going to leave he’s from Toronto even though they offered him for rantanen at the deadline and every year he has to hear from his own “fans” about how horrible he plays in the playoffs, regular season etc and is leading the team this year and doesn’t get enough credit

Of course there’s another factor here!
Hawks don’t get a top 2 pick!

Last 10 years (McDavid draft) only 5 teams that finished dead last got the first overall pick.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hate to break it to you but every prospect you draft isn’t the next bobby orr.

Oh for crying out loud, I don't need a condescending lecture that most prospects don't work out. Re-read everything I said and if that's your takeaway then I don't even know at this point.

My "bias" is just that I want what's best for the Hawks longterm so that has nothing to do with it. Upthread (when you thought Sam Rinzel was a forward, but will give you benefit of the doubt) you mentioned Hawks forward group as .

Bedard, Marner/ehlers/boeser, donato, nazar, teravainen, reichel then you still have Oliver Moore, Sacha Boisvert, Nick Lardis, Sam rinzel, marek Vanacker, John mustard, aj spellacy, Jack pridham

and I'm here telling you, that's unlikely to be good enough and they're going to need a bit more.

Of course i'd love Schaefer to add to the D corp, everyone would, but they do still in such a scenario have a need for another higher ceiling forward

 

[shello]

Out of curiosity, when was the last time a prospect missed this much development time and still lived up to their potential?

 

[Bizz]

You are a time traveler. What will people be saying about Schaefer’s NHL career 20 years from now?

If he becomes a Shark, multiple Norrises, also Probably a Hart or Conn Smythe or 3 of both.

 

[frontsfan67]

and I'm here telling you, that's unlikely to be good enough and they're going to need a bit more.

Of course i'd love Schaefer to add to the D corp, everyone would, but they do still in such a scenario have a need for another higher ceiling forward

They’ll still have first round picks the next couple years and 2 seconds this years

I’m sure they’ll find some good guys