D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I never understand this argument in that we don't see superstar stagnate in the NHL but somehow we are supposed to believe that they do in junior?

I get that he might be more challenged in the NCAA, which is an option, or the OHL where it isn't but traditionally players where drafted in their age 19 years and there is literally zero proof that they stagnated.

Most of the time this argument "too good for the CHL" is made prematurely based on stats. Remember Jornad dumas before the 23-24 season "too good for junior" and here we are a year later and he still isn't even a .5 PPG guy in the AHL, sure it's coming off an injury and layoff but still it was misplaced.

I've been there before. Update your phone. It's bugging out on you. Your autocorrect isn't working.

 

[wetcoast]

17 games does not justify him being in the NHL next season.

Where did I say anything about the NHL next season?

either he is ready or he isn't, nothing to do with the number of games he has played so far and he'll be back BTW.

The person I was responding to said he has nothing to prove in Juniors. That is a terrible take.

I tend to agree with you here.

Mitch marner/Dylan strome end prospects still had stuff to proof in juniors and played their D+1 there after draft seasons where both could go 1st overall in this draft.

Dylan Strome doesn't belong in this thread at all.

Schaefer can benefit from playing a full season in the OHL. He isnt a franchise D prospect who is ready to be a good NHL player as a 18 year old like Dahlin was

We don't know that yet and we will know more in October.
If he isn't ready I have no problem with him returning to the OHL and while some will see it as "proof" that he was over rated I doubt it as I think he will have a very good chance of having the best career of any draftee this year.

Makar didn't go to the NHL in his D=1 and it didn't hurt him.

 

[Dempsey]

I never understand this argument in that we don't see superstar stagnate in the NHL but somehow we are supposed to believe that they do in junior?

I get that he might be more challenged in the NCAA, which is an option, or the OHL where it isn't but traditionally players were drafted in their age 19 years and there is literally zero proof that they stagnated.

Most of the time this argument "too good for the CHL" is made prematurely based on stats.

Remember Jordan Dumas before the 23-24 season "too good for junior" and here we are a year later and he still isn't even a .5 PPG guy in the AHL, sure it's coming off an injury and layoff but still it was misplaced.

I 100% agree with you and I've said this before as well. Even if a player is dominant at that level there's still more they can work on to prepare for the NHL even in juniors.

 

[lokomotiv15]

I never understand this argument in that we don't see superstar stagnate in the NHL but somehow we are supposed to believe that they do in junior?

I get that he might be more challenged in the NCAA, which is an option, or the OHL where it isn't but traditionally players were drafted in their age 19 years and there is literally zero proof that they stagnated.

Most of the time this argument "too good for the CHL" is made prematurely based on stats.

Remember Jordan Dumas before the 23-24 season "too good for junior" and here we are a year later and he still isn't even a .5 PPG guy in the AHL, sure it's coming off an injury and layoff but still it was misplaced.

My apologies, I think stagnate might not be the best choice of words. I should say plateau, instead. We don't see top NHL players necessarily stagnate; They usually enter the league, get better, hit their "peak" and then fall off. I see it as if peak McDavid, or Crosby, or Gretzky or Lemieux, had a league higher than the NHL to go play in while they were in their primes, they would have continued to grow and adapt to dominate an even higher league.

If when I played junior, I dropped and played against a bunch of house league u-18s for a season, sure I'd get to work on in game things, using time and space, getting shots off in game situation from different places, trying different things creatively offensively, but after 40 games and 400 points, the lack of a challenge to push me to grow beyond my current limits are what would make me "too good" to play in that league. Now that is obviously hyperbole, but again, I'm only using all-time greats when I bring up someone who was too good for junior.

I think Schaefer is closer to Dumais than he is any of those guys were as junior players, but I also agree he definitely isn't too good for junior, either.

 

[wetcoast]

My apologies, I think stagnate might not be the best choice of words. I should say plateau, instead. We don't see top NHL players necessarily stagnate; They usually enter the league, get better, hit their "peak" and then fall off. I see it as if peak McDavid, or Crosby, or Gretzky or Lemieux, had a league higher than the NHL to go play in while they were in their primes, they would have continued to grow and adapt to dominate an even higher league.

If when I played junior, I dropped and played against a bunch of house league u-18s for a season, sure I'd get to work on in game things, using time and space, getting shots off in game situation from different places, trying different things creatively offensively, but after 40 games and 400 points, the lack of a challenge to push me to grow beyond my current limits are what would make me "too good" to play in that league. Now that is obviously hyperbole, but again, I'm only using all-time greats when I bring up someone who was too good for junior.

I think Schaefer is closer to Dumais than he is any of those guys were as junior players, but I also agree he definitely isn't too good for junior, either.

Also a D+1 Dman playing at the same level isn't the same thing as a forward in most situations.

I also think that the overall level of competition will be higher in the OHL next year with the new NCAA rules but that remains to be seen.

 

[19Simon19]

It's been a while but scouting videos are back. Here's my analysis of Matthew Schaefer. Hope you enjoy.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

It’s honestly been so crazy watching him develop since I first saw him as a 14 year old. When you go to a rink and talk to someone who has been in this business for decades and hear stories from them about guys they stumbled across at a young age only to have that player go on to do great things as a pro. I now have my own story to tell here with Matthew Schaefer.

This is a kid that very well could go first overall on draft day, he has continued to defy expectations at every level he has played. He is a franchise altering player on the backend, a guy like Drew Doughty, or a Cale Makar, or a Quinn Hughes. A defender that changes the identity of whichever team that drafts him, their backend overnight.

He will be one of the NHL’s premier defenders in due time, and you can only get players like this at the draft. He is going top-2.

 

[Jacob]

Is he coming back this year? Skating? Practicing?

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

*crickets*

 

[LeProspector]

Is he coming back this year? Skating? Practicing?

If they make it to the third round, maybe

 

[Kingpin794]

If they make it to the third round, maybe

Everyone in the OHL is pulling for the Otters but that would be one of the biggest upsets ever.

 

[57special]

It's been a while but scouting videos are back. Here's my analysis of Matthew Schaefer. Hope you enjoy.

Always appreciate your analysis.

First thing that sticks out to me about Schaefer is his skating. We are talking about Makar, Quinn, Orr level skating here.

Second thing is his vision and judgement while carrying the puck. Seems to make the right move or pass more often than not. Creative, but seems very efficient in his moves, which should wear well in the NHL.

Haven't watched him enough to comment on his puck retrievals, but if they are as good as you say, that's a huge bonus, as I think it's a highly underrated skill for Dmen.

His main weakness appears to be his defending basic line rushes, but that is common with offensively inclined Dmen, as they tend to play the puck rather than the man, as it allows them to go the other way if they can poach the puck. IMO, it's a pretty easy fix to make him better in this regard, especially for a guy with his combo of size/length, and skating. I guess his shot needs to get better, but his ability to find shooting lanes is notable.

Unlike Hughes and Makar, Schaefer already has good size. Remains to be seen how strong he will get, but i am guessing he will be above league average for a Dman once he fills out.

This is high praise, but he looks like Bobby Orr out there. Much more imposing physically than Makar and Hughes during their draft years. I was going to mention Coffey, who was also a great skater with good strength, but Coffey was the 4th Dman taken in his draft year(hard to believe).

 

[JackSlater]

This is such an odd case where he seems likely to go first, but he didn't play much this year and wasn't dominant the year before. I know you draft for what a player might do as opposed to what they have done, but it is unusual. If my team drafted Schaefer I'd hope to see him move to NCAA and play there for a year or two. Seems to be the best path for defencemen recently. Biggest mistake, at least I would think, would be forcing him to the NHL next year.

 

[93LEAFS]

This is such an odd case where he seems likely to go first, but he didn't play much this year and wasn't dominant the year before. I know you draft for what a player might do as opposed to what they have done, but it is unusual. If my team drafted Schaefer I'd hope to see him move to NCAA and play there for a year or two. Seems to be the best path for defencemen recently. Biggest mistake, at least I would think, would be forcing him to the NHL next year.

He didn't go 1st but a bit similar to the Morgan Rielly situation from 2012. Rielly was starting to get his name in the discussion to challenge Yakupov and Ryan Murray but then tore his ACL 18 games in and only returned for the playoffs. Still ended up going 5th overall. Went back to Moose Jaw the next season (although, he was starting their regardless due to the lockout) and made the Leafs as a 19-year-old. Ended up being one of the better 1st round picks in what was considered a weaker draft.

 

[JackSlater]

He didn't go 1st but a bit similar to the Morgan Rielly situation from 2012. Rielly was starting to get his name in the discussion to challenge Yakupov and Ryan Murray but then tore his ACL 18 games in and only returned for the playoffs. Still ended up going 5th overall. Went back to Moose Jaw the next season (although, he was starting their regardless due to the lockout) and made the team as a 19-year-old. Ended up being one of the better 1st round picks in what was considered a weaker draft.

Good parallel there. I recall that Galchenyuk also barely played that year and went third. There was a lot of missed time in general among the top ten that year.

 

[TLEH]

Now that Erie made it to round 2. I expect he will play shortly.

 

[I am Bettman]

Always appreciate your analysis.

First thing that sticks out to me about Schaefer is his skating. We are talking about Makar, Quinn, Orr level skating here.

Second thing is his vision and judgement while carrying the puck. Seems to make the right move or pass more often than not. Creative, but seems very efficient in his moves, which should wear well in the NHL.

Haven't watched him enough to comment on his puck retrievals, but if they are as good as you say, that's a huge bonus, as I think it's a highly underrated skill for Dmen.

His main weakness appears to be his defending basic line rushes, but that is common with offensively inclined Dmen, as they tend to play the puck rather than the man, as it allows them to go the other way if they can poach the puck. IMO, it's a pretty easy fix to make him better in this regard, especially for a guy with his combo of size/length, and skating. I guess his shot needs to get better, but his ability to find shooting lanes is notable.

Unlike Hughes and Makar, Schaefer already has good size. Remains to be seen how strong he will get, but i am guessing he will be above league average for a Dman once he fills out.

This is high praise, but he looks like Bobby Orr out there. Much more imposing physically than Makar and Hughes during their draft years. I was going to mention Coffey, who was also a great skater with good strength, but Coffey was the 4th Dman taken in his draft year(hard to believe).

I’m not sure there has ever been a player who is the same level of skater as Orr.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I wonder if he’s healthy and he’s sitting out because he can only lose his draft stock at this point.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I wonder if he’s healthy and he’s sitting out because he can only lose his draft stock at this point.

Seems wildly unlikely lol

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Seems wildly unlikely lol

So what’s going on then? Did he have a setback?

McKenzie said 2-3 months in late December.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

So what’s going on then? Did he have a setback?

McKenzie said 2-3 months in late December.

Maybe? I have no idea but a setback seems a lot more likely then what you suggested. Just saying on face value making the assumption with nothing to back it up that a player is sitting out of the playoffs to maintain draft position is kind of wild.

 

[frontsfan67]

I wonder if he’s healthy and he’s sitting out because he can only lose his draft stock at this point.

Oh boy you got the tinfoil hat on

Don’t think the kid enjoys missing games when his team is in the playoffs but that’s just me

 

[Peasy]

So what’s going on then? Did he have a setback?

McKenzie said 2-3 months in late December.

Thats just literally the basic timeline you get if you google "clavicle fracture recovery time".

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/clavicle-fractures

How long it takes the fracture to heal depends upon many factors, such as age, the location of the fracture and how many pieces it is broken into. Clavicle fractures in children (younger than 8 years old) may heal in four or five weeks, and clavicle fractures in adolescents may take six to eight weeks. However, fractures in adults or teenagers who have stopped growing take 10 to 12 weeks to heal and may take longer. Most clavicle fractures will heal completely by four months in an adult. There are some indications that clavicle fractures broken into more pieces take longer than ones with a fewer fragments.

I broke my clavicle cleanly when I was like 12. Didn't fully heal for months.

 

[Kingpin794]

Important to note that us fans aren’t entitled to athletes medical state. If they want to say when they’re coming back and what’s up with them, that’s up to them and the team. Otherwise they come back when they come back. Making weird speculations otherwise is not productive conversation.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

If teams aren't sold on the top forwards available as franchise caliber players, then I can see the allure of a guy like Schaefer, even if he isn't the next Makar or Hughes.