D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[Wieters]

Bob is saying 2-3 months. Going to require surgery.

On the USA/Latvia broadcast today, they said he had the surgery today.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Collarbone is usually a couple months. Still #1 in my books

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Before the injury I think most teams would lean him going first. Now with that injury- if Hagens does really well at this tournament that should just able seal it with Hagens

Based on what?

 

[frontsfan67]

Based on what?

Injuries. If Schaefer is out half the season he may go down a couple spots. It’s tight as it is

 

[funky]

Big blow to Team Canada. He will stay close to number 1. If this kid ends up with the Sharks, they will be set. At all major positions.

Celebrini
Smith
Schaefer
Askarov

Plus youngsters like Dickenson, Eklund, Musty,

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

The injury sucks. If he slides in the draft because of it, some team is going to get a steal!

Nobody is gonna drop a kid because of a bone break that has a 99.9% full recovery rate.

 

[scoutman1]

Nobody is gonna drop a kid because of a bone break that has a 99.9% full recovery rate.

he started the year hurt and now hurt again...that will play on a few teams decision making

 

[hawksrule]

he started the year hurt and now hurt again...that will play on a few teams decision making

He had mono.

 

[canuckslover10]

Big blow to Team Canada. He will stay close to number 1. If this kid ends up with the Sharks, they will be set. At all major positions.

Celebrini
Smith
Schaefer
Askarov

Plus youngsters like Dickenson, Eklund, Musty,

They need a RD for sure,I'd rather take Porter Martone tbh.

 

[wetcoast]

I agree this isn't the type of injury that should effect him long term. It'd be one thing if it was a back problem, neck issues, knee problems. The only thing that might hurt his stock would be some recency bias. Don't see a guy for 3 months while someone else pops off. Hopefully he can come back for the playoffs. He has every tool. Scouts aren't going to forget that so his drop shouldn't be outside of the big 4.

Agree on this, his impact as a draft guy guy can't be overlooked.

Erie with Matt

10-6-1 with Schaefer

Without Matt

6-4-2-1

His line is 17-7-15-22 (+21) as he simply titlts the ice out there.

he's not sliding from this he'll still be the favourite for 1st. Pretty similar player to Byram except a little more calm/less physical

I love Bryam but Matt is on a higher level and I expect much more from Matt.

Mind injuries have curtailed Bryam a bit but still Matt's skating and IQ is off the charts.

 

[matt trick]

They need a RD for sure,I'd rather take Porter Martone tbh.

Organizational were weakest at RD and RW. Smith had looked best at RW though (ultimately he projects as a C, but if we had Misa I’d out Smith on his wing). That said as long as we get a future #1 D, I’m confident we can build a top defense even if they shoot left.

Yes, Walman, Ferraro, Schaefer, Dickinson, Muk, Cagnoni, Wallenius, and Thrun are all left handed dmen. However, needing a couple second pairing RHD to play with your big mobile two-way kids in Schaefer and Dickinson is a much easier problem to solve than ‘needing a #1 Dman’.

Pesce, Skjei, Marino, Fabbro, Roy, and Walker all moved teams in the past year. It’s not cheap or easy, but with the sharks assets, they can find 2nd pair right handed dmen.

Martone would be awesome with Celebrini and Eklund, but we need a dman more. If Schaefer is gone, I’d be thrilled with any of the three forwards.

Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, one of Musty/Cherny/Haltunnen/Graf, and a top 10 pick in 2026 ought to be enough to build a top tier top 6. Same goes for Schaefer and Dickinson playing close to 50 minutes a night in front of Askarov.

Any of the top 4 would be great for SJ, but Schaefer is exactly what we need.

 

[Jacob]

We just need elite talent at any position. We need a future #1 d-man and a couple forwards that can shoulder a large scoring load.

We’re 13th from the bottom but 4 points separates us from 7th from the bottom.

Just start shutting the old guys down in the last few weeks of the season.

 

[BKarchitect]

I love Bryam but Matt is on a higher level and I expect much more from Matt.

Mind injuries have curtailed Bryam a bit but still Matt's skating and IQ is off the charts.

Agreed, Byram was one hell of a prospect and I can see the pure athletic and tools comp but I think Schaefer’s on-ice IQ is a different level and I think that’s going to unlock a different player at the highest level.

If there is any prospect who is going to take a few months sidelined from a broken collarbone in stride and come back even stronger - it’s this kid, for sure. Bad luck on the eve of his draft but my gosh, this isn’t even remotely close to other things he’s dealt with. I suspect it won’t hurt his draft stock one iota. Strong draft up top so doesn’t mean he’s a lock for #1 but I don’t think being shelved for a few months is going to dissuade any team that has him at the top.

Organizational were weakest at RD and RW. Smith had looked best at RW though (ultimately he projects as a C, but if we had Misa I’d out Smith on his wing). That said as long as we get a future #1 D, I’m confident we can build a top defense even if they shoot left.

Yes, Walman, Ferraro, Schaefer, Dickinson, Muk, Cagnoni, Wallenius, and Thrun are all left handed dmen. However, needing a couple second pairing RHD to play with your big mobile two-way kids in Schaefer and Dickinson is a much easier problem to solve than ‘needing a #1 Dman’.

Pesce, Skjei, Marino, Fabbro, Roy, and Walker all moved teams in the past year. It’s not cheap or easy, but with the sharks assets, they can find 2nd pair right handed dmen.

Martone would be awesome with Celebrini and Eklund, but we need a dman more. If Schaefer is gone, I’d be thrilled with any of the three forwards.

Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, one of Musty/Cherny/Haltunnen/Graf, and a top 10 pick in 2026 ought to be enough to build a top tier top 6. Same goes for Schaefer and Dickinson playing close to 50 minutes a night in front of Askarov.

Any of the top 4 would be great for SJ, but Schaefer is exactly what we need.

To me it’s like saying “We’ve got Smith, no need to get Celebrini.” You can figure out the pairings as you go, you do NOT pass on Schaefer because Dickinson is also a LHD. The likes of Walman and Ferraro should not be factors if we are being honest about what the actual future Sharks team will be and if Muk is like most Russian defensemen he can probably play his off-hand side as well. I think the line of thinking would be more like “we can create two amazing pairings and have Schaefer or Dickinson on the ice for 45-50 minutes a night”.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

That sucks . Still take him number 1 . Hes that good/ talented

 

[HFpapi]

The 1st overall pick is almost always (perceived) BPA but this year I really think it will be positional and depend heavily on who is drafting first.

I don't see a world in which the Sharks don't take Schaefer 1st overall. I don't see a world in which the Sabres or Red Wings don't take Hagens (or Martone).

Hawks and Preds are wildcards.

 

[mratch19]

He was missed in the game today against the USA. Canada's best dman by far and a true game breaker. It's too bad we don't get to watch him in the medal rounds. Hope he makes a full recovery.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Three months from 12/30 would have him missing the rest of the OHL regular season, as Erie's last game is 3/23. Erie will need to make the playoffs and maybe even win a round before he comes back, or his season could be over.

Would Hockey Canada let him play at the U18 even though he's technically "graduated"? If it's his only opportunity to play hockey before the draft, it feels like they should.

 

[docbenton]

Very impressed with his pace of play standing out at the WJC, as well as his 200ft game. It felt like he was going at 1.2x speed at this level of competition which is super impressive for a draft eligible. Have to agree with the #1 OA hype.

 

[Brock]

2025 NHL DRAFT - MATTHEW SCHAEFER, D, Erie Otters (OHL) - DETAILED SCOUTING REPORT (Attribute Grades + Video)

McKeen's Director of Scouting, Brock Otten, provides a detailed scouting report on 2025 NHL Draft prospect Matthew Schaefer.

www.mckeenshockey.com

My full report (lots of video) on Schaefer. Unlocked for all currently.

 

[seafoam]

Three months from 12/30 would have him missing the rest of the OHL regular season, as Erie's last game is 3/23. Erie will need to make the playoffs and maybe even win a round before he comes back, or his season could be over.

Would Hockey Canada let him play at the U18 even though he's technically "graduated"? If it's his only opportunity to play hockey before the draft, it feels like they should.

A broken bone has no impact on his draft status.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

A broken bone has no impact on his draft status.

It does in the sense that it's valuable time he doesn't get to show what he can do. And it's probably more important for him than players like Hagens, Martone, Misa who've been viewed at the level they are for longer than Schaefer does.

Obviously shouldn't be an issue for his health and playing the sport, assuming there are no complications with surgery and rehab.

 

[seafoam]

It does in the sense that it's valuable time he doesn't get to show what he can do. And it's probably more important for him than players like Hagens, Martone, Misa who've been viewed at the level they are for longer than Schaefer does.

Obviously shouldn't be an issue for his health and playing the sport, assuming there are no complications with surgery and rehab.

What is different is that he is a defensemen with the potential to be a Q. Hughes type impact.

That is a lot harder to find than a J. Hughes esque forward.

 

[Juxtaposer]

A broken bone has no impact on his draft status.

It's not that scouts will think the broken bone will affect him long-term, but rather his lack of playing time may make them hesitant to take him 1st overall.

I don't think it should, as I have Schaefer as the clear 1OA, but it may for some scouts.

 

[Knight53]

If the Canucks keep slipping hoping they can get this kid somehow. Would slot in nicely behind Hughes.

Hughes - Willander
Schaefer - Hronek
Pettersson - Mynio

I think he’s the clear number 1 guy. 25+ minute 70 point dman potential that could captain a team.

Hagens looks like a Cooley level player.

Misa looks like Barzal level

Martone could be a unicorn tkachuk type or a middle six guy. Power forwards are scary to draft especially that high.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If the Canucks keep slipping hoping they can get this kid somehow. Would slot in nicely behind Hughes.

Hughes - Willander
Schaefer - Hronek
Pettersson - Mynio

I think he’s the clear number 1 guy. 25+ minute 70 point dman potential that could captain a team.

Hagens looks like a Cooley level player.

Misa looks like Barzal level

Martone could be a unicorn tkachuk type or a middle six guy. Power forwards are scary to draft especially that high.

How have you arrived at all these calculuses?

Because it seems very arbitrary and hard to follow.

Hagens and Misa are significantly better pre draft than the players you compare them to. You give Martone like the widest range of outcomes possible (a true league superstar or middle six forward). And you’ve declared Schaefer will be a top 10 defenseman in the NHL on the smallest sample of the four.