D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[Ryan Van Horne]

I was wrong with that first sentence. Simple as that.

Props to you.

If there's one thing that I'm absolutely certain of after years of prospect watching it's that there is no such thing as certainty in projecting prospects.

People can be certain and will continue to express strong views, but they shouldn't. I've seen can't-miss prospects fizzle and players who were written off as fifth-round duds become 50-goal scorers in the NHL.

Having watched Schaefer live at the U-17 last year, I was convinced he was going to be a good player. I wasn't sure what his offensive upside was, but I knew with his skating, IQ, and defensive awareness and gap control, that he had a great foundation.

I think he’ll only go 1OA if he’s considered the best player in the draft. I can’t remember a time when a team had the first pick and chose based on positional need.

This is true. This is how GMs lose their job.

If you want a position filled with a lower-ranked player, you should trade down and address another organizational need. If that doesn't present itself, then always take BPA.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If they all keep it up, I think #1 is going to come down to Hagens, Martone or Schaefer. I think Misa still has a chance to go top three, depending on the dominos, but personally I would still lean Hagens if I need a center..he does so many of the little things.

But for this exercise…you’ve got your franchise center, franchise power winger or franchise defenseman.

Of the “bad” teams who have a reasonable shot at a lotto win - which would actually consider the defenseman at #1 over either forward?

San Jose…comes to mind. I think Dickinson projects really well as a pro but I’m not sure he projects as “the guy” on your championship foundation defense. They have Celebrini and Smith up the middle. Martone could be attractive as well as a big-bodied star power/skill forward and I know both Dickinson and Schaefer are LHD…but it seems like Schaefer could really be the finishing piece to the rebuild with Askarov now in the building in net.

This is kind of where most Sharks fans are at with this draft. We like the idea of a three-headed monster down the left side with Schaefer, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin to echo the Lightning setup of Hedman/Sergachev/McDonagh and then fill the right side with solid but unspectacular types like Liljegren and Thompson.

At the end of the day, the Sharks have the luxury of taking the BPA in this draft. We need a high-end D like Schaefer, a big winger like Martone, and while Misa and Hagens don't represent a huge need they certainly would be core pieces.

Part of the thinking is that while Martone would be a great, there are always high-end wingers at the top of the draft, but not always high-end defensemen. Taking Schaefer this year would allow us to simply take the best player available next year no matter the position, especially if it's someone like McKenna or Belchetz.

 

[Mathieukferland]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856875087695106461

 

[MTU34]

I’m at the point where I’m comfortable saying that he’s the best defenseman prospect since Dahlin

 

[Mathieukferland]

This guy is incredible, best player available in my opinion. I have a feeling the pedestrian numbers in Erie last year put a damper on his hype, because what I’ve seen from him from the u18 into the Hlinka into his DY season with Erie has been incredible

 

[Juxtaposer]

Absurdly good player. #1 as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

This is kind of where most Sharks fans are at with this draft. We like the idea of a three-headed monster down the left side with Schaefer, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin to echo the Lightning setup of Hedman/Sergachev/McDonagh and then fill the right side with solid but unspectacular types like Liljegren and Thompson.

At the end of the day, the Sharks have the luxury of taking the BPA in this draft. We need a high-end D like Schaefer, a big winger like Martone, and while Misa and Hagens don't represent a huge need they certainly would be core pieces.

Part of the thinking is that while Martone would be a great, there are always high-end wingers at the top of the draft, but not always high-end defensemen. Taking Schaefer this year would allow us to simply take the best player available next year no matter the position, especially if it's someone like McKenna or Belchetz.

I feel like the sharks are going to be bottom 5 the next 2 drafts.

I havnt looked forward to the 26 draft, but are there dmen projected in the top 3-5?
I feel like if the answer is no, or a hesitant maybe... you prob just take the stud on the back end when you can get them... considering you already have some studs up front.

the sharks made out like bandits getting the option to take Dickinson or Buium(who were the top 2 dmen in last years draft imo) last year.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I feel like the sharks are going to be bottom 5 the next 2 drafts.

I havnt looked forward to the 26 draft, but are there dmen projected in the top 3-5?
I feel like if the answer is no, or a hesitant maybe... you prob just take the stud on the back end when you can get them... considering you already have some studs up front.

the sharks made out like bandits getting the option to take Dickinson or Buium(who were the top 2 dmen in last years draft imo) last year.

With the caveat that defensemen usually take longer to emerge as top draft year prospects, there doesn't look like any really good D eligible next year at this point. So it really does make sense for the Sharks to go Schaefer this year, and then just take the best player available next year regardless of position (but will probably be a winger).

Unfortunately, I'm starting to feel like we'll need to win the lottery to get him now. Almost wish he'd go back to being low-key.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

With the caveat that defensemen usually take longer to emerge as top draft year prospects, there doesn't look like any really good D eligible next year at this point. So it really does make sense for the Sharks to go Schaefer this year, and then just take the best player available next year regardless of position (but will probably be a winger).

Unfortunately, I'm starting to feel like we'll need to win the lottery to get him now. Almost wish he'd go back to being low-key.

Tough to say,

Martone is who im dreaming of... but i feel like we will be drafting in 5-10 range.

 

[PensFan101]

This guy is incredible, best player available in my opinion. I have a feeling the pedestrian numbers in Erie last year put a damper on his hype, because what I’ve seen from him from the u18 into the Hlinka into his DY season with Erie has been incredible

That rush actually looked Dahlin-esque (thinking of that famous goal he scored in the SHL way back when).

Will have to catch him when Erie comes up to the Sound this year.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Tough to say,

Martone is who im dreaming of... but i feel like we will be drafting in 5-10 range.

You guys have had enough top picks, methinks.

 

[wetcoast]

With the caveat that defensemen usually take longer to emerge as top draft year prospects, there doesn't look like any really good D eligible next year at this point. So it really does make sense for the Sharks to go Schaefer this year, and then just take the best player available next year regardless of position (but will probably be a winger).

Unfortunately, I'm starting to feel like we'll need to win the lottery to get him now. Almost wish he'd go back to being low-key.

I like him alot but I also doubt that most teams would pick him first that's still Hagens.

Still it might be good to pick second this year and have less pressure and I believe that Schaefer is worth it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I like him alot but I also doubt that most teams would pick him first that's still Hagens.

Still it might be good to pick second this year and have less pressure and I believe that Schaefer is worth it.

I really think the WJC is going to have a bigger impact on draft year guys than usual. My hope is that Hagens goes ballistic at the WJC and then busts out in the second half of the season to secure his spot at #1. But Martone, Misa, and Schaefer all have decent chances of making the Canadian roster, which could make things interesting. I'd bet on only Martone makes it on account of being a 2006-born, but you never know.

 

[wetcoast]

I really think the WJC is going to have a bigger impact on draft year guys than usual. My hope is that Hagens goes ballistic at the WJC and then busts out in the second half of the season to secure his spot at #1. But Martone, Misa, and Schaefer all have decent chances of making the Canadian roster, which could make things interesting. I'd bet on only Martone makes it on account of being a 2006-born, but you never know.

I think that Schaefer finds a way to be on the team he just really tilts the ice out there.

the most impressive part of his line is the last part.

12-4-12-16 (+ 15)

Plus he is a couple of days away from being a 26 draft guy.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think that Schaefer finds a way to be on the team he just really tilts the ice out there.

the most impressive part of his line is the last part.

12-4-12-16 (+ 15)

Plus he is a couple of days away from being a 26 draft guy.

You don't have to convince me, I'm his biggest proponent. I think he's fully capable of playing a low-event bottom pairing role if that's what they ask of him.

As a fan of a team hoping to draft him, I hope he doesn't make it.

 

[Dhockey16]

I’m at the point where I’m comfortable saying that he’s the best defenseman prospect since Dahlin

I've been a season ticket holder in Erie for 25 years (I'm 30!) and have seen many great prospects come through town. Schaefer is the best defenseman I've ever seen at the OHL - the only other d-man that comes close is probably Doughty. A true pleasure to watch - he'll make fans of the team that selects him very happy.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Matthew "cale" Schaefer

 

[BKarchitect]

Matthew "cale" Schaefer

I’m sold. I’ve seen him skate by everybody multiple times this season and it is scintillating and he makes it look easy.

But what really sells me is how he killed that penalty. He’s got that dog in him when it comes to competing and he’s unbelievable in interviews and with what he has had to overcome this past year.

He’s the complete package. He’s got Norris level skill and captain/leader written all over him. He’s just screams “foundational winning player”.

 

[TLEH]

I think its gotten to the point where you just draft him regardless of your organizational depth. Not sure he's truly dynamic but the skating, gap control, stick, compete level, intelligence.. All really apparent.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Matthew "cale" Schaefer

Did you mean to post a link?

 

[Mathieukferland]

Did you mean to post a link?

TSN deleted their original post, they called him Reid Schaefer

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I still laugh to this day over a last sentence wrap-up a TSN reporter made.

"But for now, the status quo remains the same ... Joe Schmuckface, TSN. Back to you, Jim."

 

[MichaelFarrell]

I don’t usually make decisions based on players playing in games that are not league games (Hlinka, WJC, etc.). However, I think I’ve been too conservative with Schaefer’s ranking on my list and tonight has just been confirmation of that.

I’m tentatively ranking him first overall. It’s really hard to argue against him being taken first. The skill, skating, and it-factor are all obvious in his game. Then you consider he is a whole year younger than a lot of other players in this draft and he becomes nearly impossible to not put #1. Elite player, elite tools, not undersized and definitely a character guy. He checks every box.

 

[Buttonwood]

Probably good enough to be #1 overall based on skills, but I think relative scarcity of high-end D in this draft make it easy to see him going there if the right teams win the lottery.

Also doesn't hurt Hagens hasn't been what Celebrini was last year (so far).