CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[TheLegend]

I thought VAI had some ownership change, finance issue, something to that effect. But yes, also a bit of a different animal, if the arena is considered the first concern.

No floodplain - agreed. I'm pretty certain having the infrastructure across the street is much closer than what Glendale was dealing with. However, that infrastructure is in Scottsdale, so.....

This situation is eerily similar to Glendale, as I see us having an unusual parking situation and construction all around for the ED.

Ownership change about six months into the process (they were still digging out the lagoon and foundations. New owners then doubled the number of rooms.

NFL Cardinals recently sued Glendale over a parking garage VAI is building on what is known as the “Black Lot” (ie the game day pay parking lot.) Cardinals claim they were supposed to be consulted over it given their agreement calls for Glendale to provide X number of spaces within a vicinity of the stadium.

I noticed the other day that Tanger Outlets is annexing the old overflow lot along the Loop 101 that Glendale used to lease from ADOT. Wether that’s their solution or not I’m not sure.

 

[TheLegend]

If you want to be a private person buying controlling interest in a distressed major league sports team probably isn't a good idea.

That’s your opinion.

 

[LT]

That’s your opinion.

It's one I think most people would agree with.

He has a right to privacy. He also has to deal with the consequences of maintaining his privacy. And one of those consequences is a lack of trust from the community.

He has no ties to the area except for owning the Coyotes. His decisions made the team effectively homeless. He's a billionaire outsider who seems to be doing the bare minimum in terms of personal community outreach.

Of course the community isn't going to trust him.

 

[TheLegend]

It's one I think most people would agree with.

Maybe on this site.

He has a right to privacy. He also has to deal with the consequences of maintaining his privacy. And one of those consequences is a lack of trust from the community.

Skepticism is a common thing these days. Because we rely too much on the opinions of others we read everywhere rather than just looking at what actually happens and making our own decisions.

He has no ties to the area except for owning the Coyotes. His decisions made the team effectively homeless. He's a billionaire outsider who seems to be doing the bare minimum in terms of personal community outreach.

Here’s where you really need to be from this area to known what’s been done. Unfortunately, these days we only see something when it goes wrong because it’s always amplified.

Of course the community isn't going to trust him.

Again… you really have to be from here to make that judgement.

Do I think he perfect? Hardly. But as far as I’m concerned, he’s not the person people seem to want to paint him as.

 

[LT]

Maybe on this site.



Skepticism is a common thing these days. Because we rely too much on the opinions of others we read everywhere rather than just looking at what actually happens and making our own decisions.



Here’s where you really need to be from this area to known what’s been done. Unfortunately, these days we only see something when it goes wrong because it’s always amplified.



Again… you really have to be from here to make that judgement.

Do I think he perfect? Hardly. But as far as I’m concerned, he’s not the person people seem to want to paint him as.

I am looking at what actually happened. Glendale evicted him. Tempe voted him out.

Nothing I said about him isn't factual.

 

[TheLegend]

I am looking at what actually happened. Glendale evicted him. Tempe voted him out.

Nothing I said about him isn't factual.

You’re citing a narrative.

What the facts are is Glendale refused to renew the lease because they wanted the Coyotes to sign a lease for a minimum of 12 years. The Coyotes would have agreed to three years with options for two more. They were already in negotiations with Tempe at the time.

The taxes, late payments, etc….. were not a factor at all. It was something being propagated to put leverage on the franchise to stay put. Glendale’s city manager confirmed this as late as a month ago.

It was never about the owner of lack of trust with the owner.

Tempe voted against TED based on the narrative that TED was going to cost residents “hundreds of millions” when it was going to benefit the city over the long term by absorbing the cost of a landfill clean up and becoming the first sports facility in the state to generate property taxes after 30 years.

 

[LT]

You’re citing a narrative.

What the facts are is Glendale refused to renew the lease because they wanted the Coyotes to sign a lease for a minimum of 12 years. The Coyotes would have agreed to three years with options for two more. They were already in negotiations with Tempe at the time.

The taxes, late payments, etc….. were not a factor at all. It was something being propagated to put leverage on the franchise to stay put. Glendale’s city manager confirmed this as late as a month ago.

It was never about the owner of lack of trust with the owner.

Tempe voted against TED based on the narrative that TED was going to cost residents “hundreds of millions” when it was going to benefit the city over the long term by absorbing the cost of a landfill clean up and becoming the first sports facility in the state to generate property taxes after 30 years.

Why do you think either ended up the way they did, then? Because that narrative made sense for people. And no one convinced them otherwise.

Regardless of why, both those doors are permanently closed now. At some point, results are all that matters. There aren't any results right now.

 

[aqib]

That’s your opinion.

Isn't pretty much anything anyone posts here opinion?
What is a fact is that he has had a lot of negative stories about him and that arena opponents used that to get voters to vote against the arena. I don't know any PR person who thinks the best way to get public support when people are suspicious of you is to lay low.

 

[TheLegend]

Isn't pretty much anything anyone posts here opinion?
What is a fact is that he has had a lot of negative stories about him and that arena opponents used that to get voters to vote against the arena. I don't know any PR person who thinks the best way to get public support when people are suspicious of you is to lay low.

You know what’s funny is there’s plenty of positive things he’s done here too. Some are even published but you don’t hear anyone repeating them.

It always the negative things people gravitate too.

 

[aqib]

You know what’s funny is there’s plenty of positive things he’s done here too. Some are even published but you don’t hear anyone repeating them.

It always the negative things people gravitate too.

So you're saying he doesn't have an image problem?

 

[LadyStanley]

Friedman: option a: Coyotes win land auction and build arena. Option b: relocation

 

[TheLegend]

Friedman: option a: Coyotes win land auction and build arena. Option b: relocation

Well gee that’s certainly in the running for the no brainer of the month.

Has about as much relevance as Pagnotta saying on SiriusXM this morning the Salt Lake group had made an offer to Meruelo to pay him $1 billion for the Coyotes and he turned it down.

 

[TheLegend]

So you're saying he doesn't have an image problem?

Didn’t say that.

Just said people tend to pay more attention to the negative things and ignore the good things.

Kinda like what you’re doing here.

 

[jkrdevil]

Just spitballing here. If the timeline gets extended out further could we see something along the lines of a deal where Muerlo sells the Coyotes to Smith/SLC under the condition that he gets awarded an expansion team at a discouted price (say what he gets for the Coyotes adjusted for inflation) for Arizona if the arena plans are finalized by a future date. The team moves to SLC and the new owners pay a relocation fee to the league to make up the difference between the Coyotes price point and what would otherwise by expansion fee.

That gives the league a temporary solution for Arizona and gives a carrot to the current ownership where the league doesn’t have to fight them for control of the team (which looks like maybe an issue).

Kind of similar to the Ravens/Browns deal in the NFL in the 90’s (though that involved an owner unilaterally moving the team instead of one trying to keep control).

 

[eojsmada]

Friedman: option a: Coyotes win land auction and build arena. Option b: relocation

It's probably even a bit more nuanced than that. I would think that even if Meruelo buys the land, it's not a slam dunk. That the NHL is even letting it be known that AZ ownership is skating on thin ice with the whole "Meruelo is out to prove he's willing to go the extra mile" (paraphrased from Friedman's piece on HNIC), is a bit of a nod that if Meruelo doesn't have all of his ducks lined up correctly, even with the land sale, it might be the end of the Coyotes in AZ. Friedman did not say that he was speculating, btw, and that he had done a lot of digging into the situation. The NHL would have been all over him, if he had reported something incorrectly. So this is a pretty serious shot across the bow to make sure that Meruelo hunkers down and does the deed and does it correctly or else they will figure something else out. The publicity of the auction should make for an interesting situation, as well. There will be a lot of developers between now and then who will be scouting the land to figure out if it's worth a look to bid on it. Building out there in Scottsdale, while environmentally treacherous, could still be potentially lucrative for the right kind of development/developer.

Just spitballing here. If the timeline gets extended out further could we see something along the lines of a deal where Muerlo sells the Coyotes to Smith/SLC under the condition that he gets awarded an expansion team at a discouted price (say what he gets for the Coyotes adjusted for inflation) for Arizona if the arena plans are finalized by a future date. The team moves to SLC and the new owners pay a relocation fee to the league to make up the difference between the Coyotes price point and what would otherwise by expansion fee.

That gives the league a temporary solution for Arizona and gives a carrot to the current ownership where the league doesn’t have to fight them for control of the team (which looks like maybe an issue).

Kind of similar to the Ravens/Browns deal in the NFL in the 90’s (though that involved an owner unilaterally moving the team instead of one trying to keep control).

That actually might be a thing, now that you mention it. But the condition would be, I would think, that the arena would have to be built before they award them a team.

 

[jkrdevil]

It's probably even a bit more nuanced than that. I would think that even if Meruelo buys the land, it's not a slam dunk. That the NHL is even letting it be known that AZ ownership is skating on thin ice with the whole "Meruelo is out to prove he's willing to go the extra mile" (paraphrased from Friedman's piece on HNIC), is a bit of a nod that if Meruelo doesn't have all of his ducks lined up correctly, even with the land sale, it might be the end of the Coyotes in AZ. Friedman did not say that he was speculating, btw, and that he had done a lot of digging into the situation. The NHL would have been all over him, if he had reported something incorrectly. So this is a pretty serious shot across the bow to make sure that Meruelo hunkers down and does the deed and does it correctly or else they will figure something else out. The publicity of the auction should make for an interesting situation, as well. There will be a lot of developers between now and then who will be scouting the land to figure out if it's worth a look to bid on it. Building out there in Scottsdale, while environmentally treacherous, could still be potentially lucrative for the right kind of development/developer.


That actually might be a thing, now that you mention it. But the condition would be that the arena would have to be built before they award them a team.

It would be something along the lines of arena plans have to be finalized by X date for the offer to valid and the team would begin play no later than 1 year after construction of new arena completed.

 

[GKJ]

It's probably even a bit more nuanced than that. I would think that even if Meruelo buys the land, it's not a slam dunk. That the NHL is even letting it be known that AZ ownership is skating on thin ice with the whole "Meruelo is out to prove he's willing to go the extra mile" (paraphrased from Friedman's piece on HNIC), is a bit of a nod that if Meruelo doesn't have all of his ducks lined up correctly, even with the land sale, it might be the end of the Coyotes in AZ. Friedman did not say that he was speculating, btw, and that he had done a lot of digging into the situation. The NHL would have been all over him, if he had reported something incorrectly. So this is a pretty serious shot across the bow to make sure that Meruelo hunkers down and does the deed and does it correctly or else they will figure something else out. The publicity of the auction should make for an interesting situation, as well. There will be a lot of developers between now and then who will be scouting the land to figure out if it's worth a look to bid on it. Building out there in Scottsdale, while environmentally treacherous, could still be potentially lucrative for the right kind of development/developer.


That actually might be a thing, now that you mention it. But the condition would be, I would think, that the arena would have to be built before they award them a team.

They would have to be building the building. Not have it built before they consider it

 

[eojsmada]

They would have to be building the building. Not have it built before they consider it

Right...the building would have to be in process.

 

[TheLegend]

It's probably even a bit more nuanced than that. I would think that even if Meruelo buys the land, it's not a slam dunk. That the NHL is even letting it be known that AZ ownership is skating on thin ice with the whole "Meruelo is out to prove he's willing to go the extra mile" (paraphrased from Friedman's piece on HNIC), is a bit of a nod that if Meruelo doesn't have all of his ducks lined up correctly, even with the land sale, it might be the end of the Coyotes in AZ. Friedman did not say that he was speculating, btw, and that he had done a lot of digging into the situation. The NHL would have been all over him, if he had reported something incorrectly. So this is a pretty serious shot across the bow to make sure that Meruelo hunkers down and does the deed and does it correctly or else they will figure something else out. The publicity of the auction should make for an interesting situation, as well. There will be a lot of developers between now and then who will be scouting the land to figure out if it's worth a look to bid on it. Building out there in Scottsdale, while environmentally treacherous, could still be potentially lucrative for the right kind of development/developer.

There's one problem with your theory on the latter part.

Housing prices in Phoenix have been dropping. Which means the market is headed the wrong direction and there are way too many housing communities currently under construction for builders in this area to be speculating further.

Besides... there's a 2000+ acre parcel (in North Phoenix, bordered on the south by the Loop 303 freeway) currently under auction the end of this month where the starting point (ie. cost per acre) is MUCH MUCH cheaper.

Not to mention there is a TON of acreage available (as in the other 100 acres Meruelo decided to pass on) just as desirable if they want to go their own route.

That actually might be a thing, now that you mention it. But the condition would be, I would think, that the arena would have to be built before they award them a team.

Not a chance. If Meruelo gets shovels into the ground the league isn't going to just go up to him and say "sorry Alex, we can't wait.")

 

[TheGreenTBer]

If Meruelo gets shovels into the ground the league isn't going to just go up to him and say "sorry Alex, we can't wait.")

Agreed. There's absolutely no evidence to suggest the contrary.

 

[eojsmada]

There's one problem with your theory on the latter part.

Housing prices in Phoenix have been dropping. Which means the market is headed the wrong direction and there are way too many housing communities currently under construction for builders in this area to be speculating further.

Besides... there's a 2000+ acre parcel (in North Phoenix, bordered on the south by the Loop 303 freeway) currently under auction the end of this month where the starting point (ie. cost per acre) is MUCH MUCH cheaper.

Not to mention there is a TON of acreage available (as in the other 100 acres Meruelo decided to pass on) just as desirable if they want to go their own route.



Not a chance. If Meruelo gets shovels into the ground the league isn't going to just go up to him and say "sorry Alex, we can't wait.")

Two things. First, It's actually more beneficial to buy now as it is better to buy when housing prices are cheaper, not elevated, because you're purchasing for future growth so you make money on house sales. As well, property near Scottsdale with mixed use zoning would be more coveted than property that is further away from the higher property values. Second, The second comment was for future expansion to Arizona and how that would work. If Meruelo were to be able to get shovels in the ground, he wouldn't be under the scrutiny he is. The issue is, currently if he can and when that would be. I think if he can't get shovels in the ground in 2-3 years, the NHL pulls the plug and moves on in hopes that they can get an arena to be built for a potential return via expansion (and probably with a different ownership group).

 

[TheLegend]

Two things. First, It's actually more beneficial to buy now as it is better to buy when housing prices are cheaper, not elevated, because you're purchasing for future growth so you make money on house sales. As well, property near Scottsdale with mixed use zoning would be more coveted than property that is further away from the higher property values. Second, The second comment was for future expansion to Arizona and how that would work. If Meruelo were to be able to get shovels in the ground, he wouldn't be under the scrutiny he is. The issue is, currently if he can and when that would be. I think if he can't get shovels in the ground in 2-3 years, the NHL pulls the plug and moves on in hopes that they can get an arena to be built for a potential return via expansion (and probably with a different ownership group).

Lower prices are an indication that the demand isn’t there to match what’s being built. Therefore it makes no sense for a developer to go buying up even more land now. Especially if it means getting into a bidding war and driving up the cost further. So there’s no real motivation for a developer to do that just to sit on the property for several years.

Meruelo has motivation to buy now because he needs the site to get an arena built and the other amenities to help support it. But he’s taking a risk that the housing market won’t tank further or the economy for that matter. Otherwise he’ll end up in the same situation Steve Elllman found himself in with Westgate in 2008.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

It's one I think most people would agree with.

He has a right to privacy. He also has to deal with the consequences of maintaining his privacy. And one of those consequences is a lack of trust from the community.

He has no ties to the area except for owning the Coyotes. His decisions made the team effectively homeless. He's a billionaire outsider who seems to be doing the bare minimum in terms of personal community outreach.

Of course the community isn't going to trust him.

Absolutely and the recent Q&A on PHNX is evidence that many locals lack said trust.

 

[eojsmada]

Lower prices are an indication that the demand isn’t there to match what’s being built. Therefore it makes no sense for a developer to go buying up even more land now. Especially if it means getting into a bidding war and driving up the cost further. So there’s no real motivation for a developer to do that just to sit on the property for several years.

Meruelo has motivation to buy now because he needs the site to get an arena built and the other amenities to help support it. But he’s taking a risk that the housing market won’t tank further or the economy for that matter. Otherwise he’ll end up in the same situation Steve Elllman found himself in with Westgate in 2008.

Or that the economy is in a weird place because of mortgage rates and inflation. Land developers are always willing to eat the cost of land prices/taxes to offset revenues, if it means being patient enough to wait out the market to then start to build when the market starts to get hot. They only need like a year of the market to warm up to make a lot of money on housing and commercial development.

All I'm saying is that people (other developers) will know, within some margins, how much Meruelo is willing to spend on the land because of development costs and return on investment. Housing and commercial developers can wait out the market. Meruelo can't afford to wait, and also can't afford to overpay on the land or he stands to lose a lot of money. So he's kind of stuck, because he can't afford to wait on another piece of land and he can't overspend on it. This will test his motivation of wanting to continue being an owner or not.

 

[TheLegend]

Or that the economy is in a weird place because of mortgage rates and inflation. Land developers are always willing to eat the cost of land prices/taxes to offset revenues, if it means being patient enough to wait out the market to then start to build when the market starts to get hot. They only need like a year of the market to warm up to make a lot of money on housing and commercial development.

All I'm saying is that people (other developers) will know, within some margins, how much Meruelo is willing to spend on the land because of development costs and return on investment. Housing and commercial developers can wait out the market. Meruelo can't afford to wait, and also can't afford to overpay on the land or he stands to lose a lot of money. So he's kind of stuck, because he can't afford to wait on another piece of land and he can't overspend on it. This will test his motivation of wanting to continue being an owner or not.

If developers were as eager as you say that parcel would have been snapped up a long long time ago.

Just seems like there’s a lot of over thinking (or wishful thinking from certain individuals) going on with this.

Either he’s going to succeed with this step or he won’t. It’s still just one part of a whole lot of things that need to happen.