CXLI - UPDATE 1/27 - Coyotes working on deal to play at 5,000-seat arena at ASU

[Lions67]

I'm aware. Still doesn't explain which market up in those parts appears larger than Phoenix, Denver, Vegas & SLC combined, unless Bismarck & Minot had overnight population explosions.

That’s just residual light pollution from Winnipeg lol

 

[Boris Zubov]

That’s just residual light pollution from Winnipeg lol

I thought the candlelight vigils ended when the Jets returned?

 

[Lions67]

I thought the candlelight vigils ended when the Jets returned?

bazinga!

 

[Major4Boarding]

OK, guys, OK. You got me. What you're seeing on the map are the results of my secret experiment.

It is the nighttime composition of my experiment involving kinetic energy between patches of wool powering 1000 Watt Halide bulbs attached to each member of a free-ranging herd of wild Bison.

Let’s get back to discussing the tracking of flights from Teterboro please

 

[TheLegend]

I thought that was an excellent suggestion. Unfortunately, I plugged "bakken oil field" into Google Maps and ruined your suggestion.

I'll confess that I haven't been to that part of the world but I'm not buying Legend's idea that there's a huge population concentration on the Montana border.

Wasn’t my map. I was noting the message Fenway was attempting to get across.

Sometimes you just don’t need to read between the lines, vowels, or punctuation marks.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Is it true you're manufacturing these....

 

[MNNumbers]

That was my original contention. A huge number of people in an area does not necessarily equate with a huge number of hockey fans. New Orleans, for instance.


I did. Williston has 15,000 people on a good day...

Sorry. I was misinterpreting the conversation. I thought we were trying to figure out what the big dot is. Not how many people are there.

 

[bleedblue94]

Gary wants to keep his employers happy by inflating franchise values.

We know the only person in Kansas City (Clark Hunt) who would be interested in a team said back when Vegas was admitted that the most he could pay to make it work was 350M. Obviously the Rockets owner has his price as well.

Gary pointed out this move to ASU does not help the Coyotes revenue sharing as they are at the max now.

Any transaction with the coyotes is going to have its real price and its paper price. With all the debt and other factors the league can find creative ways to say the coyotes were sold for 700mil on a paper transaction and yet still have a new ownership paying less in real dollars assuming it will be to the benefit of the league long term.

As for revenue sharing, people are missing the point here. A team can generate $1mil of HRR to the league pot and still qualify for max revenue sharing. They can also generate $5k of HRR to the league pot and still qualify for the same amount of revenue sharing, yet they are actually netting a -$999,995 to the HRR pot.

Gary is a lawyer and he ALWAYS choses his words and angles very carefully, that is why he focused on revenue sharing and not their dwindling contribution to the HHR under this plan, nor it's affect on cap/player payback/escrow. All these things are related...

 

[MNNumbers]

Any transaction with the coyotes is going to have its real price and its paper price. With all the debt and other factors the league can find creative ways to say the coyotes were sold for 700mil on a paper transaction and yet still have a new ownership paying less in real dollars assuming it will be to the benefit of the league long term.

As for revenue sharing, people are missing the point here. A team can generate $1mil of HRR to the league pot and still qualify for max revenue sharing. They can also generate $5k of HRR to the league pot and still qualify for the same amount of revenue sharing, yet they are actually netting a -$999,995 to the HRR pot.

Gary is a lawyer and he ALWAYS choses his words and angles very carefully, that is why he focused on revenue sharing and not their dwindling contribution to the HHR under this plan, nor it's affect on cap/player payback/escrow. All these things are related...

But even HRR is complicated. For example, how exactly does Minnesota's HRR affect everyone else?

Well, part is from merchandise sales, which are league shared (some of them anyway). So, better market = more sales = better for everyone.
However, local broadcast doesn't affect any one directly, because, for example, Boston doesn't get a dime of Minnesota's TV contract.

One the other hand, LOWER HRR from Minnesota would mean that Boston, for example, pays less in players' salaries because players costs are linked to league wide HRR.

It's complicated.

Agree that we will never know exactly how much any team sells for, if there is a sale.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Sorry. I was misinterpreting the conversation. I thought we were trying to figure out what the big dot is. Not how many people are there.

I'm 100% convinced you're right - it's the Bakken oil field.

 

[bleedblue94]

But even HRR is complicated. For example, how exactly does Minnesota's HRR affect everyone else?

Well, part is from merchandise sales, which are league shared (some of them anyway). So, better market = more sales = better for everyone.
However, local broadcast doesn't affect any one directly, because, for example, Boston doesn't get a dime of Minnesota's TV contract.

One the other hand, LOWER HRR from Minnesota would mean that Boston, for example, pays less in players' salaries because players costs are linked to league wide HRR.

It's complicated.

Agree that we will never know exactly how much any team sells for, if there is a sale.

From the basic principle that there is a deficit in the league and that the owners fronted significant money as the creditors of sorts to the players, any and all revenues generated would help payback that "loan" sooner. So any drops in HRR is going to have an impact on this whole formula, just as any increases in HRR is going to speed up the payback. I understand what you are talking about regarding TV contracts, but that has nothing to do with ticket sales/availability. You cant sell something that you dont have (seats).

 

[kerrabria]

NHL isn't expanding again...

In 1962, the league had 6 teams.
In 1992, the league had 22 teams.
In 2022, the league has 32 teams.

 

[MNNumbers]

From the basic principle that there is a deficit in the league and that the owners fronted significant money as the creditors of sorts to the players, any and all revenues generated would help payback that "loan" sooner. So any drops in HRR is going to have an impact on this whole formula, just as any increases in HRR is going to speed up the payback. I understand what you are talking about regarding TV contracts, but that has nothing to do with ticket sales/availability. You cant sell something that you dont have (seats).

Allow me to try to express what I am hearing you say, just so I can feel like I am understanding your ideas, ok?

Since the players essentially owe the owners a bunch (due to the 2 COVID seasons, and the agreement the 2 sides made), it also makes sense that the owners are carrying unexpected debt from the same 2 seasons.

And.....since that is true....in this particular situation, raising the league wide HRR means better finances for the owners, since the players start paying back their debt (rather that worse, for higher player salary obligations as would be the normal, non-COVID situation).

And, therefore, most owners right now would rather have all the teams generating as much money as possible.

Is this your basic lineup? If so, I can follow that, and it makes sense to me.

 

[OG6ix]

In 1962, the league had 6 teams.
In 1992, the league had 22 teams.
In 2022, the league has 32 teams.

They won't expand again until the NFL expands

 

[bleedblue94]

Allow me to try to express what I am hearing you say, just so I can feel like I am understanding your ideas, ok?

Since the players essentially owe the owners a bunch (due to the 2 COVID seasons, and the agreement the 2 sides made), it also makes sense that the owners are carrying unexpected debt from the same 2 seasons.

And.....since that is true....in this particular situation, raising the league wide HRR means better finances for the owners, since the players start paying back their debt (rather that worse, for higher player salary obligations as would be the normal, non-COVID situation).

And, therefore, most owners right now would rather have all the teams generating as much money as possible.

Is this your basic lineup? If so, I can follow that, and it makes sense to me.

yes, stated in a much more organized way. also lower that debt total faster should lighten the escrow load, so it feels like owners shouldnt want the ASU scenario and neither should the players.

I dont want coyote fans to lose their team, I'm not that person, but what a mess.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

In 1962, the league had 6 teams.
In 1992, the league had 22 teams.
In 2022, the league has 32 teams.

....but...

NBA has had 30 teams since 2004 with no plans to expand. 18 years.
NFL has had 32 teams since 2002 with no plans to expand. 20 years.
MLB has had 30 teams since 1998 with no plans to expand. 24 years.

So....it's likely to be at least a quarter of a century before the NHL breaks 32.

 

[kerrabria]

....but...

NBA has had 30 teams since 2004 with no plans to expand. 18 years.
NFL has had 32 teams since 2002 with no plans to expand. 20 years.
MLB has had 30 teams since 1998 with no plans to expand. 24 years.

So....it's likely to be at least a quarter of a century before the NHL breaks 32.

NFL can't expand because it's become so cost prohibitive. Nobody has the money to buy into the league anymore.
MLB can't expand because the game's popularity is shrinking. They still make shit tons of money at the gate just because of the sheer volume of games, but they aren't going to convince a municipality to build a new baseball-specific stadium.

NBA has been talking about expanding to Seattle and Kansas City for several years now.

 

[Ernie]

The whole point of revenue sharing is to create competitive balance so that poor teams can compete with rich teams. The league recognizes this is the key to being successful in every market, so it essentially does wealth redistribution.

But when a team takes that money and just mails it in, they are breaking that compact.

Yes, the Coyotes have to reach the cap floor, but I expect they'll be decreasing their actual salary expenses to as low as they can. They will do their best to collect back diving and LTIR'd contracts etc.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

NBA has been talking about expanding to Seattle and Kansas City for several years now.

Nothing firm, just rumors...and if it takes 7 years, how long will it have been then?

 

[OG6ix]

Nothing firm, just rumors...and if it takes 7 years, how long will it have been then?

NBA expansion price is going to be huge - I wonder how much are people willing to pay for the NBA. Their stars are starting to get long in the tooth and their "New" stars are not really picking up steam with casuals.

 

[fryfunk]

One look at this picture tells you where people live and the size of a market.

Vegas is working because it is a destination city for fan road trips.

I have to assume the Coyotes have done research on how many STH's they can attract in Tempe.

Worst case for Meruelo is Tempe falls apart and if he has to sell the $20M he would pay ASU gets added to the sale price.

Size means absolutely nothing.

A state is gonna have far more gold than a county. But a county can have far higher concentrations of gold and in turn produce infinitely more profitable mines.

Concentration is more important than size.

It's a problem that multiples.

More size when it is spread out means fans have to drive further. People are gonna find it a hard challenge to get to games and are less likely to go.

But an even further complication is when you have multiple teams. Fans have to drive further and they have to drive buy more traditional options.

What everyone forgets is a major benefit of suburban arenas is that you can gain fans from convenience.

It's entirely possible being at the center of town might cause the yotes to have even worst attendance.

 

[fryfunk]

....but...

NBA has had 30 teams since 2004 with no plans to expand. 18 years.
NFL has had 32 teams since 2002 with no plans to expand. 20 years.
MLB has had 30 teams since 1998 with no plans to expand. 24 years.

So....it's likely to be at least a quarter of a century before the NHL breaks 32.

You've just invalidated your own argument.

The NHL has only 25 American teams not 32.

The NHL has consistently added a team every other year for the last 55 years. The lack of expansion after team 30 has more to do with how fast teams were added during the 90s.

If TV ratings continue to climb stateside, there will be more expansions.

You get far more milage going into smaller markets where you can monopolize fandoms. Vegas is a sign of exactly how it's done, Arizona is the poplar opposite.

 

[fryfunk]

NFL can't expand because it's become so cost prohibitive. Nobody has the money to buy into the league anymore.
MLB can't expand because the game's popularity is shrinking. They still make shit tons of money at the gate just because of the sheer volume of games, but they aren't going to convince a municipality to build a new baseball-specific stadium.

NBA has been talking about expanding to Seattle and Kansas City for several years now.

I'd add NFL is less reliant on local fanbases and more reliant on single games watched by entire timezones.

NBA is driven by it's stars not its team depth.

A league driven by depth and based on parity, is bound to get far more gains out of covering the bright lights.

I'd argue the instability in fandom caused by covid is far more reason expansion talks are currently stalling than anything else.

Wouldn't be shocked if we started charging along to a 40 league team by 2030 ish.

 

[JimAnchower]

If any league expands beyond 32 teams, I think the NFL would be the first. And they won't do it until after they go to 18 games. The two main drivers of this would be gambling and Amazon/Apple willing to pay for the streaming rights. Locations of the teams won't be too important, just additional teams playing more games. Maybe there's more early Sunday morning games, or Tuesday/Wednesday night games. This is pretty far into the future, 10 years at least and probably will be wrong.

 

[GhostofTommyBolin]

Every professional league already has too many teams. I hope the NHL doesn't expand beyond the current 32.