HOF TRACK, not destined for the HOF. There is a semantic difference rather easy to see. To use baseball analogies, David Wright and Don Mattingly were on HOF tracks until they hurt their backs and had their careers shortened. It's not just one Norris, its being a perennial top 1-5 D that allows one to say that if he continues this way, he is on track for the HOF. Understand the difference. Personally, I doubt that he gets to age 30 with his skillset undiminished, but, if he does.....So, no it is not premature.
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Boris Zubov
No relation to Sergei, Joe
I understand the difference perfectly & IMO it's still way too premature. HOF voters, regardless of what they say publicly, look for two things, stats &/or style points. (Pavel Bure is a perfect example of the latter). Fox's numbers don't jump off the page at you, nor is he that flashy.
Regardless of where you may land on the Makar/Fox debate, there is no question Makar has the numbers & the "it factor", so I would have no problem with it if you said he is on a HOF track. Fox, however, is not in that ball park, sorry.
Amazing Kreiderman
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He's not getting in with just 1 Norris IMO because as you say his numbers aren't "jumping off the page".
He's ranked 5-10 in most categories since entering the league. Longevity will go a long way towards a possible HHOF induction though. It all depends on how big of an impact he has on this team and its possible success.
I think for defensemen, winning a cup is much more important that it is for a goalie or a foward when it comes to HHOF talk.
Only 5 defensemen in the modern era have gotten in without winning a Cup. Forwards can win a bunch of individual trophies tied to scoring, while goalies have specific stats that are highly valued that are separate from team success.
What do defensemen have? The Norris trophy. There's no "Art Ross trophy" for defensemen. There should be, but there isn't. Defensemen need a Cup to be in the conversation, more so than any other position.
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haohmaru
boomshakalaka
3 top 5 Norris votes in 4 years is certainly a HOF track. The year he wasn’t he was 4th for the Calder.
Boris Zubov
No relation to Sergei, Joe
Again I disagree for the reasons I stated above. No HOF voter gives a crap about top 5 Norris finishes or gives a second thought about a 4th place Calder candidate. LOL.
These discussions are silly, IMO. You guys are putting the cart before the horse.
Amazing Kreiderman
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There are 3 ways Adam Fox gets into the HHOF:
1. He wins a Cup or two and preferably a Conn Smythe along the way (team success)
2. He wins multiple Norris trophies on top of the one he has now (individual success)
3. He finishes top-5 in scoring all-time among D-men (longevity)
Is he on track? Ehh. He's off to a good start, but at age 25, the guys that were on track for a surefire HHOF induction are Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin etc. He needs to do more, but he's up against some great defensemen in their prime. Kinda reminiscent to Brad Park playing in Bobby Orr's shadow.
Boris Zubov
No relation to Sergei, Joe
I don't disagree with any of this, but as of now he's a long shot for each of the 3, especially the top 5 scoring for D men. Fox doesn't strike me as the type to stay at a high level into his mid-late 30s...his physical limitations certainly won't improve with age. Theoretically I give him 7-8 more years of playing at his peak & let's be generous to say he averages a point a game with no major injuries. If he averages 75 games a season, that 600 points plus the 259 he already has. That doesn't come close to top 5 in D scoring. Honestly I'd be impressed if he broke into the top 20 in D scoring. That's a more realistic target, IMO.
I'm not even going to broach those other 2 categories because it's purely speculation & an exercise in futility...which is why I said we're putting the cart before the horse.
Fans today are obsessed with these premature HOF discussions & it's become a pet peeve of mine. Especially with the HOF entry standards becoming so low in all 4 sports. It cheapens the honor, quite honestly, & the HOF has morphed in the Hall of Very Good.
Amazing Kreiderman
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Honestly, the only guy currently on the team on track for a HHOF induction, is Artemiy Panarin. At age 32, he is on pace to become the 3rd highest undrafted scorer in NHL history behind Šťastný and Oates.*
He will be close to hitting 1,000 points by the end of his current contract, and probably has a few decent years in him after that. He doesn't rely on physicality. He's the type of player that ages gracefully, so to speak.
If he gets to 1,100+ fewer than 1,000 games, he's ahead of guys like Gilbert, Ciccarelli. Goulet, the Sedins, Federko and Bure.
*no, Gretzky is not an undrafted player. He was never draft eligible, that's different.
haohmaru
boomshakalaka
See Park, Brad
And, while you're there, look at his scoring totals by year that Fox most likely will either emulate or beat every year.
Fox stays healthy, continues to play the way he has, and he's a likely HOF'er. I don't care about a cart and a horse.
Amazing Kreiderman
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I was curious so I decided to look up how many Norris-trophy winning defensemen without a Stanley Cup are not in the HHOF.
Brent Burns^
Vicrtor Hedman^
Drew Doughty^
Cale Makar^
Erik Karlsson^
Randy Carlyle
Roman Josi^
Mark Giordano^
P.K. Subban
Adam Fox^
Zdeno Chára*
Duncan Keith*
^Active players
*Retired but not yet eligible
So, 2. There are 2 eligible Norris trophy winners not in the HHOF.
Boris Zubov
No relation to Sergei, Joe
Park is a terrible comparable to Fox, IMO. Park was universally thought of as the 2nd best d-man of his era when Bobby Orr was dominating the sport. Park played in an era where really good d-men not named Orr or Park were averaging 30-40 points per season. It's ridiculous to compare Fox's season totals to Park's when scoring is way up & d-men of this era are infinitely more involved in the offensive side of the game. With that said, I'd still bet Fox doesn't score more points in his career than Park did when it's all said & done. I don't see him being able to keep up past age 34-35.
Regardless, we're not going to agree & that's fine, but can't we just enjoy & appreciate Fox's career in the present for what it is & stop heaping undue expectations on him. The guy is a great player & we're lucky to have him. In 8-10 years there will be plenty of time for this debate.
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Also, jersey retirement is an individual honor, not a team one. Just ask Hank, Bure (Vancouver), Cujo (Leafs) and Dionne (Kings), for example: all exceptional but none won Cups (with those teams at least).
Amazing Kreiderman
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7 of the 11 players up in the rafters at MSG got there without winning a cup. And I could argue neither Richter nor Graves belong up there, so it should be 7 of 9.
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