Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Devs3cups]

Jiricek please and thank you. Not if Wright’s there though. If Wright is the one sitting there and we don’t want him then I’m attempting to trade back. To Columbus for 6+12 would be preferable. Do the Luka/Trae thing where we take Wright and Jiricek is there at 6 we make the move and then also grab Nazar at 12

I’m sure you’ve mentioned it a whole lot, but what makes you like Jiricek so much? You’re definitely the biggest Jiricek supporter I’ve seen around here. Not saying you’re wrong at all, I like Jiricek, just wondering why you rank him so highly, mostly above every other prospect not named Wright.

 

[Hisch13r]

I’m sure you’ve mentioned it a whole lot, but what makes you like Jiricek so much? You’re definitely the biggest Jiricek supporter I’ve seen around here. Not saying you’re wrong at all, I like Jiricek, just wondering why you rank him so highly, mostly above every other prospect not named Wright.

I really wouldn't have too much of an issue going with Cooley over Jiricek but I'll stick with the potential high end two way D instead. When it comes to Slaf I obviously think the ceiling is high but the likelihood of hitting it isn't all that high. For Nemec I think it's like the rare time I'd acknowledge fit since I think you're kind of splitting hairs between the 2 RD. I think Nemec is a really good puck rushing offensive Dman. I think he's kind of like a worse Luke and his value would be mitigated here with both Luke and Dougie likely ahead of him as PP guys and I'm not the biggest fan of him in a potential top 4 that also features Luke and Dougie.

Jiricek on the other hand I love the defensive potential that is there. I feel like it'd make him a really good fit alongside Luke as he reigns in his game over time. I like the risk taking mindset he has right now because to me it comes off of as him pushing the boundaries of his game to figure out what works and what doesn't work. Over time and with the right development I think you'll see him tone that back somewhat as he learns what works and he won't be as crazy on the ice. The tools combined with that creative risk taking mindset leads me to believe there's a good amount of offensive potential in there as well. I love the potential upside of a two way beast that pretty much all Cup contenders have

 

[Oneiro]

The nitpicking on Wright is epic going into this last week. I think you could get that microscopic and annoying on the other four players and have much more of an argument.

The statements about his compete level came within a context of the scout mentioning Wright relying on a cerebral/technical approach instead of a simpler, gut-check just fight for it mentality at times. That gets resolved at the NHL level.

Grabbing Wright is a fantastic outcome. Good shot + best IQ of the five players being discussed, and to my eyes, he will be the player to contribute the fastest as well. No brainer. Fitz should only flip it for a Pastrnak level return.

 

[Devs3cups]

I really wouldn't have too much of an issue going with Cooley over Jiricek but I'll stick with the potential high end two way D instead. When it comes to Slaf I obviously think the ceiling is high but the likelihood of hitting it isn't all that high. For Nemec I think it's like the rare time I'd acknowledge fit since I think you're kind of splitting hairs between the 2 RD. I think Nemec is a really good puck rushing offensive Dman. I think he's kind of like a worse Luke and his value would be mitigated here with both Luke and Dougie likely ahead of him as PP guys and I'm not the biggest fan of him in a potential top 4 that also features Luke and Dougie.

Jiricek on the other hand I love the defensive potential that is there. I feel like it'd make him a really good fit alongside Luke as he reigns in his game over time. I like the risk taking mindset he has right now because to me it comes off of as him pushing the boundaries of his game to figure out what works and what doesn't work. Over time and with the right development I think you'll see him tone that back somewhat as he learns what works and he won't be as crazy on the ice. The tools combined with that creative risk taking mindset leads me to believe there's a good amount of offensive potential in there as well. I love the potential upside of a two way beast that pretty much all Cup contenders have

Great writeup! Thanks a lot, I feel the same with Jiricek. Terrific prospect that transforms our blue line.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

At least Wright is a righty?

I got nothing.

 

[Derps]

I'd puke if this happens.

Here's what Pronman wrote:

1. Montreal Canadiens: Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS (FINLAND)

Trying to pin down what Montreal will do with the No. 1 pick has been a challenge. There are quite a few people in the league who believe this pick will be Shane Wright. However, based on discussions with people in the league over the last few weeks, the winds seem to be blowing in the direction of Slafkovsky — to the point that I think this is the slightly more likely scenario at the No. 1 slot.

2. New Jersey Devils: David Jiricek, RHD, Plzen (CZREP)

If the Habs take Wright, I think for the Devils it’s a simple scenario and they take Slafkovsky. If Slafkovsky goes No. 1, it opens up the possibilities. League sources seem somewhat skeptical they will take Wright, or at least they don’t view this as the likeliest scenario. The most common scenario proposed to me for New Jersey with Slafkovsky going first is the Devils taking one of the top two defensemen in Jiricek or Simon Nemec, or trading the pick. Jiricek is the more common name I’ve heard attached to the Devils between the two defensemen.

I will be in absolute meltdown city if this shit happens

 

[Mgd31]

I really wouldn't have too much of an issue going with Cooley over Jiricek but I'll stick with the potential high end two way D instead. When it comes to Slaf I obviously think the ceiling is high but the likelihood of hitting it isn't all that high. For Nemec I think it's like the rare time I'd acknowledge fit since I think you're kind of splitting hairs between the 2 RD. I think Nemec is a really good puck rushing offensive Dman. I think he's kind of like a worse Luke and his value would be mitigated here with both Luke and Dougie likely ahead of him as PP guys and I'm not the biggest fan of him in a potential top 4 that also features Luke and Dougie.

Jiricek on the other hand I love the defensive potential that is there. I feel like it'd make him a really good fit alongside Luke as he reigns in his game over time. I like the risk taking mindset he has right now because to me it comes off of as him pushing the boundaries of his game to figure out what works and what doesn't work. Over time and with the right development I think you'll see him tone that back somewhat as he learns what works and he won't be as crazy on the ice. The tools combined with that creative risk taking mindset leads me to believe there's a good amount of offensive potential in there as well. I love the potential upside of a two way beast that pretty much all Cup contenders have

How is his skating relative to Adam Larsson?

 

[Hisch13r]

How is his skating relative to Adam Larsson?

The skating isn’t great. Probably a similar quality skater to Larsson. He has a pretty noticeably short stride which could definitely be improved. It’s sucks that he was out all that time so we couldn’t see a full year of how he’d progress. With time and development though I think there could be a good enough skater

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Jiricek is not who should be taken at 2.

 

[Guadana]

Would be huge, if slaf, Jiricek and Gauthier will not be available for Phillies pick. They can replace Giroux by poor man Giroux in Cooley.

 

[Saugus]

The nitpicking on Wright is epic going into this last week. I think you could get that microscopic and annoying on the other four players and have much more of an argument.

The statements about his compete level came within a context of the scout mentioning Wright relying on a cerebral/technical approach instead of a simpler, gut-check just fight for it mentality at times. That gets resolved at the NHL level.

Grabbing Wright is a fantastic outcome. Good shot + best IQ of the five players being discussed, and to my eyes, he will be the player to contribute the fastest as well. No brainer. Fitz should only flip it for a Pastrnak level return.

I think we've gone in circles about every other possible angle about this pick, so now people are nitpicking, overthinking things, and blowing the smallest bits of news out of proportion.

Better to stay levelheaded. The overall situation hasn't changed that much, McKenzie's rankings notwithstanding. We're still most likely to walk away from this draft with one of Wright or Slafkovsky, and that is a fantastic result.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I think trading back at #2 is not as easy as people are assuming. If Fitz and the scouts think Jiricek is the best guy available at #2, just take him. Maybe Arizona and Seattle also have him #2 behind Slafkovsky. Who knows?

Maybe no one thinks a 2nd or 3rd pick in a deep draft is worth the difference between Wright and Cooley or whoever else. Anyone who’s ever tried to work out a deal on craigslist knows that a negotiation can fall apart fast over something minor.

 

[stonecold316]

I will be in absolute meltdown city if this shit happens

I would be ok with it.

 

[JimEIV]

The skating isn’t great. Probably a similar quality skater to Larsson. He has a pretty noticeably short stride which could definitely be improved. It’s sucks that he was out all that time so we couldn’t see a full year of how he’d progress. With time and development though I think there could be a good enough skater

This is way too risky for a top 2 pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m sure you’ve mentioned it a whole lot, but what makes you like Jiricek so much? You’re definitely the biggest Jiricek supporter I’ve seen around here. Not saying you’re wrong at all, I like Jiricek, just wondering why you rank him so highly, mostly above every other prospect not named Wright.

I have Jiricek ranked #3 overall, and I'm high on him as well. He's a phenomenal defender who plays with intelligence, poise and physicality. He's very good with the puck and he's got a bomb of a shot. His skating is not as much of an issue as advertised -- he came back too soon from a knee injury, and most draft analysts are too lazy to watch Czech league play and only saw him in international play after he returned from the injury. I wouldn't call Jiricek a great skater by any means, but he's a pretty good skater.

Ultimately, Jiricek would be the perfect pairing for Luke Hughes. It's that simple. Jiricek's stalwart defense would allow Luke to take more chances, and his physicality down low would be the perfect compliment for Luke's "rover" type style defensively. Luke's high-end playmaking would back defenders off, but leaving too much room at the point would make Jiricek's shot absolutely deadly. We can't underestimate his shot -- it's absolutely elite and has the potential to be a Shea Weber-type weapon.

While we're on that topic, I'd say prime era Shea Weber is probably the best comparison for David Jiricek's upside. We're talking a Norris-caliber, superstar defenseman with prime-era Weber, and this can't be understated.

 

[Hisch13r]

This is way too risky for a top 2 pick.

You can still be a really good player without being needing to be a good skater. I also specified trading down to take him

 

[StevenToddIves]

I really wouldn't have too much of an issue going with Cooley over Jiricek but I'll stick with the potential high end two way D instead. When it comes to Slaf I obviously think the ceiling is high but the likelihood of hitting it isn't all that high. For Nemec I think it's like the rare time I'd acknowledge fit since I think you're kind of splitting hairs between the 2 RD. I think Nemec is a really good puck rushing offensive Dman. I think he's kind of like a worse Luke and his value would be mitigated here with both Luke and Dougie likely ahead of him as PP guys and I'm not the biggest fan of him in a potential top 4 that also features Luke and Dougie.

Jiricek on the other hand I love the defensive potential that is there. I feel like it'd make him a really good fit alongside Luke as he reigns in his game over time. I like the risk taking mindset he has right now because to me it comes off of as him pushing the boundaries of his game to figure out what works and what doesn't work. Over time and with the right development I think you'll see him tone that back somewhat as he learns what works and he won't be as crazy on the ice. The tools combined with that creative risk taking mindset leads me to believe there's a good amount of offensive potential in there as well. I love the potential upside of a two way beast that pretty much all Cup contenders have

I agree with you on Jiricek, but not on Nemec. Nemec has absolutely nothing in common with Luke Hughes, stylistically or talent wise. I'd call Nemec a Roman Josi-type defender, only without the big shot. He's actually better defensively than offensively for the most part right now, although he has a bit of trouble defending against speed in space. His transition game is simply phenomenal.

I don't see Cooley as a consideration for the Devils, which I've stated a bunch. I love his floor as a two-way NHL middle six C who plays with extreme speed and pace, but I just don't see taking a prospect who doesn't have top 10 upside in his draft class top 3 overall. We can honestly compare his upside with Noah Ostlund -- it's that close both stylistically and ceiling-wise -- but Cooley is much higher in the rankings because of his floor, which I'd say is 2nd best among all centers in the draft after only Wright. He's can't miss, and that's why you take him.

Lastly, I'm not sure what would make anyone think Slafkovsky wouldn't hit his ceiling. He probably had the highest development rate of any player in the 2022 class. His intangibles -- one of the best indicators for a player hitting their ceiling -- are extremely high. Is he going to suddenly and inexplicably plateau? I'd say Slafkovsky's ceiling combined with his likelihood of hitting it are why Montreal will consider him #1 overall -- the only scary thing about drafting Wright is that he's not significantly better now (32-62-94 in 63 games) than he was two years ago (39-27-66 in 58 games).

 

[StevenToddIves]

I will be in absolute meltdown city if this shit happens

It is a real possibility that Montreal takes Slafkovsky. However, I do not see the Devils taking Jiricek at #2 -- Fitzgerald obviously will have a contingency plan in place to trade down to #3, #4 or #6 where they would still have a shot at Jiricek (or I think Gauthier as a back-up plan). If this proves impossible, I feel he will just draft Shane Wright at #2.

 

[Devs3cups]

I have Jiricek ranked #3 overall, and I'm high on him as well. He's a phenomenal defender who plays with intelligence, poise and physicality. He's very good with the puck and he's got a bomb of a shot. His skating is not as much of an issue as advertised -- he came back too soon from a knee injury, and most draft analysts are too lazy to watch Czech league play and only saw him in international play after he returned from the injury. I wouldn't call Jiricek a great skater by any means, but he's a pretty good skater.

Ultimately, Jiricek would be the perfect pairing for Luke Hughes. It's that simple. Jiricek's stalwart defense would allow Luke to take more chances, and his physicality down low would be the perfect compliment for Luke's "rover" type style defensively. Luke's high-end playmaking would back defenders off, but leaving too much room at the point would make Jiricek's shot absolutely deadly. We can't underestimate his shot -- it's absolutely elite and has the potential to be a Shea Weber-type weapon.

While we're on that topic, I'd say prime era Shea Weber is probably the best comparison for David Jiricek's upside. We're talking a Norris-caliber, superstar defenseman with prime-era Weber, and this can't be understated.

At the start of the year, Jiricek was definitely my pick and I’ve read countless posts of yours discussing him. I agree with everything you’ve said here.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is way too risky for a top 2 pick.

Jiricek is coming off a serious knee injury. His skating at the beginning of the season was better than at the end of the season, and many people talking about his skating didn't watch him at the beginning of the season.

Jiricek is a decent but not great skater. This reminds me of young Shea Weber, who is probably the closest comparable for Jiricek, anyway.

 

[Hisch13r]

I agree with you on Jiricek, but not on Nemec. Nemec has absolutely nothing in common with Luke Hughes, stylistically or talent wise. I'd call Nemec a Roman Josi-type defender, only without the big shot. He's actually better defensively than offensively for the most part right now, although he has a bit of trouble defending against speed in space. His transition game is simply phenomenal.

I don't see Cooley as a consideration for the Devils, which I've stated a bunch. I love his floor as a two-way NHL middle six C who plays with extreme speed and pace, but I just don't see taking a prospect who doesn't have top 10 upside in his draft class top 3 overall. We can honestly compare his upside with Noah Ostlund -- it's that close both stylistically and ceiling-wise -- but Cooley is much higher in the rankings because of his floor, which I'd say is 2nd best among all centers in the draft after only Wright. He's can't miss, and that's why you take him.

Lastly, I'm not sure what would make anyone think Slafkovsky wouldn't hit his ceiling. He probably had the highest development rate of any player in the 2022 class. His intangibles -- one of the best indicators for a player hitting their ceiling -- are extremely high. Is he going to suddenly and inexplicably plateau? I'd say Slafkovsky's ceiling combined with his likelihood of hitting it are why Montreal will consider him #1 overall -- the only scary thing about drafting Wright is that he's not significantly better now (32-62-94 in 63 games) than he was two years ago (39-27-66 in 58 games).

I don't really know how you can call Nemec a Josi type and then say he's better defensively than offensively. Josi is an all offense Dman.

If we're looking at Slaf's ceiling as like a Rantanen and he's a lock to hit it like you're saying and everyone thought that then everyone would be in agreement that he's #1. That's not the case though and as Bob said the other day the scouts he talked to generally saw both Slaf and Wright ending up as more 2nd line types. Wright is a tricky one because yeah he didn't significantly improve but he also missed a year of competitive hockey outside of the U18 where he was pretty historically great. You don't really know if that's a "lost" development year or it's more that he's like a year a behind where he otherwise would be

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't really know how you can call Nemec a Josi type and then say he's better offensively than defensively. Josi is an all offense Dman.

If we're looking at Slaf's ceiling as like a Rantanen and he's a lock to hit it like you're saying and everyone thought that then everyone would be in agreement that he's #1. That's not the case though and as Bob said the other day the scouts he talked to generally saw both Slaf and Wright ending up as more 2nd line types. Wright is a tricky one because yeah he didn't significantly improve but he also missed a year of competitive hockey outside of the U18 where he was pretty historically great. You don't really know if that's a "lost" development year or it's more that he's like a year a behind where he otherwise would be

I agree with you on Wright, I'm just saying the flatter progression must be considered a concern if you're drafting him top 2. I ranked him #1, after all, so obviously I'm a believer.

Maybe the Josi comparison is weak, but comparisons are something I've always been a bit uncomfortable with. But Nemec is terrific defensively, just in a more subtle way than Jiricek. Again, I have Jiricek as my #3 and Nemec #4, so obviously I agree with you on who the top defender is in the class. I'm just saying it's close. I like Jiricek's upside more, so he's my guy at #3 behind the two top-tier forwards.

I'd never say anyone is a "lock" to be a superstar. In the last five drafts, the only player I felt close to this about was Jack Hughes. I'm just saying that Slafkovsky had a huge progression and upward development curve this year, and I was curious where the idea came from that it would suddenly plateau. I'll go so far as to say that this is one of the two reasons I actually believe Montreal will consider Slafkovsky over Wright -- one, the difference in their draft-eligible year progression; and two, Slafkovsky's perceived upside, which some believe is highest in the 2022 class.

Personally, I believe Slafkovsky and Wright have similar upside, and it's huge. The only way they wind up 2nd liners is if both don't really come that close to hitting it. I feel Wright can become one of the top 10 centers in the league and Slaf one of the top 10 wingers. Will they? Well, I guess time will tell. But I think we all know that, with prospects, I'm generally an optimist.

 

[MauDevils]

Jiricek is like a taller Ty Smith. Laterally his skating is smooth, but his North/South is already awful at this level. It will look much worse in the NHL.

We need to stop drafting questionable skaters.

 

[Hisch13r]

I agree with you on Wright, I'm just saying the flatter progression must be considered a concern if you're drafting him top 2. I ranked him #1, after all, so obviously I'm a believer.

Maybe the Josi comparison is weak, but comparisons are something I've always been a bit uncomfortable with. But Nemec is terrific defensively, just in a more subtle way than Jiricek. Again, I have Jiricek as my #3 and Nemec #4, so obviously I agree with you on who the top defender is in the class. I'm just saying it's close. I like Jiricek's upside more, so he's my guy at #3 behind the two top-tier forwards.

I'd never say anyone is a "lock" to be a superstar. In the last five drafts, the only player I felt close to this about was Jack Hughes. I'm just saying that Slafkovsky had a huge progression and upward development curve this year, and I was curious where the idea came from that it would suddenly plateau. I'll go so far as to say that this is one of the two reasons I actually believe Montreal will consider Slafkovsky over Wright -- one, the difference in their draft-eligible year progression; and two, Slafkovsky's perceived upside, which some believe is highest in the 2022 class.

Personally, I believe Slafkovsky and Wright have similar upside, and it's huge. The only way they wind up 2nd liners is if both don't really come that close to hitting it. I feel Wright can become one of the top 10 centers in the league and Slaf one of the top 10 wingers. Will they? Well, I guess time will tell. But I think we all know that, with prospects, I'm generally an optimist.

You said you wouldn't see why you wouldn't see why Slaf wouldn't hit that ceiling and that ceiling is a star. I think that's a lofty expectation and could easily see why he wouldn't hit it. My hope is that he comes in at close to Nichushkin level and he just hits it far sooner than Nichushkin did.

 

[Hisch13r]

Jiricek is like a taller Ty Smith. Laterally he's smooth, but his North South is already awful at this level. It will look much worse in the NHL.

We need to stop drafting questionable skaters.

It's much less of an issue when one is 4 inches taller and can cover more space. Also is just better.