Cryptocurrencies Part III - We ran as if to meet the Moon

[BreadManPanarin]

Where's the bottom? I've heard people saying 45K is possible.

It is a good time to get back in and buy again. DCAing probably the best strategy though.

Trying to time the bottom is foolish fiat behavior imo. I think we’re seeing the final big shakeout before the credit cycle-driven bull run starts in earnest. If I had any meaningful sidelined capital i would be deploying it like it is March of 2020, personally. But I am often wrong. (And I do stick by my $45k bottom by end of 2024 prediction from a month or two ago, as the hard landing at the end of the credit cycle was always extremely obvious from a historical standpoint.)

 

[TheBeard]

It’s wild BTC is now under 50. What a tailspin.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

It’s wild BTC is now under 50. What a tailspin.

Back down to prices not seen since 5 months ago. The horror!

Jokes aside, if you want to see something wild just wait until the Fed goes full r-tard and starts flooding the market with liquidity again.

 

[Bocephus86]

Can I ask a dumb question? A reference to a solid TLR resource works for me too:

What makes Crypto (BitCoin specifically) an investment? I understand gold and silver since, for some reason beyond me, many people see value in those metals. But, as far as I understand, Bitcoins are a representative token for a block-chain process that is mostly unused? I get key tokens and handshakes, and I mostly understand how the world of that has worked for years. Why does:

1. A different / better way to secure that communication result in something 'worth' money, outside of investing in the institution that controls that handshake
2. A nebulous 'thing' hold value, beyond other people thinking there is value there too

The US dollar is basically useless, other than the US saying it has value. That second statement is carrying a giant point though: The US government is saying that thing has value. If we get to a point that that statement carries no weight, the Crypto coin means nothing too, since we've descended into the wild west.

I guess, in short, I just don't get it. But I want to understand.

 

[thebestnic]

Trying to time the bottom is foolish fiat behavior imo. I think we’re seeing the final big shakeout before the credit cycle-driven bull run starts in earnest. If I had any meaningful sidelined capital i would be deploying it like it is March of 2020, personally. But I am often wrong. (And I do stick by my $45k bottom by end of 2024 prediction from a month or two ago, as the hard landing at the end of the credit cycle was always extremely obvious from a historical standpoint.)

Always cute when crypto people use the term fiat as a pejorative but are obsessed with its price in usd

 

[thebestnic]

Can I ask a dumb question? A reference to a solid TLR resource works for me too:

What makes Crypto (BitCoin specifically) an investment? I understand gold and silver since, for some reason beyond me, many people see value in those metals. But, as far as I understand, Bitcoins are a representative token for a block-chain process that is mostly unused? I get key tokens and handshakes, and I mostly understand how the world of that has worked for years. Why does:

1. A different / better way to secure that communication result in something 'worth' money, outside of investing in the institution that controls that handshake
2. A nebulous 'thing' hold value, beyond other people thinking there is value there too

The US dollar is basically useless, other than the US saying it has value. That second statement is carrying a giant point though: The US government is saying that thing has value. If we get to a point that that statement carries no weight, the Crypto coin means nothing too, since we've descended into the wild west.

I guess, in short, I just don't get it. But I want to understand.

If you understand gold it's similar. There is a maximum supply of 21 millions Bitcoin that will ever exist so it does have value if enough people believe in it as a store of value.(Can't be printed to infinite). It should give a similar return to gold though in the long run: real rate of 0 if you don't believe society will collapse(and I agree with you in a wild west scenario doubtful crypto will be what people use)

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Are there any threads about stocks on this sub?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Are there any threads about stocks on this sub?

There is one in the lounge.

 

[McGarnagle]

If some of these candidates' tax proposals like jacking capital gains up to 45% or taxing unrealized gains ever make it to light, then there's going to be a huge rush to put everything into self-custodial crypto. Ostensibly it's only for the top of the top tax bracket, but the largest boats leave the biggest wakes in the market.

 

[2CHAINZ]

Let's goooooooooo

 

[BreadManPanarin]

Always cute when crypto people use the term fiat as a pejorative but are obsessed with its price in usd

I suppose you have a better idea on how to mark the progress of an asset’s monetization than comparing it to the current global unit of account?

In any case, when I say “fiat” as a pejorative I mean very short-term focused, high time preference, not patient or focused on the long game, etc. I think this is accurate because the fiat world we’re living in has caused people to think in this manner. Everybody just wants to get rich quick by trading shitcoins and stocks rather than saving in superior money and getting more wealthy over the long haul.

What makes Crypto (BitCoin specifically) an investment? I understand gold and silver since, for some reason beyond me, many people see value in those metals. But, as far as I understand, Bitcoins are a representative token for a block-chain process that is mostly unused? I get key tokens and handshakes, and I mostly understand how the world of that has worked for years. Why does:

1. A different / better way to secure that communication result in something 'worth' money, outside of investing in the institution that controls that handshake
2. A nebulous 'thing' hold value, beyond other people thinking there is value there too

The US dollar is basically useless, other than the US saying it has value. That second statement is carrying a giant point though: The US government is saying that thing has value. If we get to a point that that statement carries no weight, the Crypto coin means nothing too, since we've descended into the wild west.

I guess, in short, I just don't get it. But I want to understand.

If you’re truly interested to learn and understand then a good start would be to learn about history and economics. Once you understand why gold and silver are desired then it becomes much easier to understand why Bitcoin is desired. At the end of the day Bitcoin is just a better form of gold, because it is fixed in supply unlike gold and because it can be transacted around the world online rather than being a dumb rock that you need to store in a vault. It is more scarce, more easily secured, more transportable, more divisible, and just all around better - unless your goal is to make jewelry or something.

 

[2CHAINZ]

 

[BreadManPanarin]

View attachment 905401

Hahahah. For what it's worth (which isn't much), a few months ago I made a prediction that we'll see $45k by January '25, and then $150k by July. We'll see how accurate that ends up being. I can't really see us going to the moon until this credit cycle resolves itself - which typically involves a good bit of carnage for risk assets.

 

[2CHAINZ]

Hahahah. For what it's worth (which isn't much), a few months ago I made a prediction that we'll see $45k by January '25, and then $150k by July. We'll see how accurate that ends up being. I can't really see us going to the moon until this credit cycle resolves itself - which typically involves a good bit of carnage for risk assets.

I don't know I am on the same page with many of the sharps; I think we touch 51k again and we take off. I have no idea where the top will be on that cycle, but I know I will be jamming in heaps if/when we touch 51k again.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

I don't know I am on the same page with many of the sharps; I think we touch 51k again and we take off. I have no idea where the top will be on that cycle, but I know I will be jamming in heaps if/when we touch 51k again.

Did you jam in heaps at 52.9k a few days ago? In the grand scheme there is effectively no difference between 53k and 51k imo. Sort of like if someone back in March 2019 was waiting for $3800 to buy when the BTC price was at $3590. In that case it never went back down to $3800 again.

On a separate note, back in 2021 I convinced my dad to buy a bunch of BTC. He also decided to buy 10 ETH, despite me telling him I did not think it was a good idea. Since then ETH is down >40% in BTC terms. He is still holding it. I expect this decision to continue to age poorly. It continues to be my expectation that ETH and every other altcoin will trend toward zero in BTC terms over a long enough time frame.

But I am often wrong.

 

[2CHAINZ]

Did you jam in heaps at 52.9k a few days ago? In the grand scheme there is effectively no difference between 53k and 51k imo. Sort of like if someone back in March 2019 was waiting for $3800 to buy when the BTC price was at $3590. In that case it never went back down to $3800 again.

On a separate note, back in 2021 I convinced my dad to buy a bunch of BTC. He also decided to buy 10 ETH, despite me telling him I did not think it was a good idea. Since then ETH is down >40% in BTC terms. He is still holding it. I expect this decision to continue to age poorly. It continues to be my expectation that ETH and every other altcoin will trend toward zero in BTC terms over a long enough time frame.

But I am often wrong.

It's not about the price being a difference; it's about heatmaps and candles on charts. When wicks get filled, it tells a story. A lot of sharps have 51k as the take off point; this week it could have filled but we held above 56k after Asian markets closed, If it holds here today, we likely shoot back up to 60k before we get to 51k. If we get back to 60k, I will close a percentage of my positions and again look to jam heaps at 51k


Just saw your ETH comment.

I am not an ETH fan; I think SOL is infinitely better and it's what I hold outside of BTC However, ETH will climb from here on this cycle, after the cycle is over, how far will ETH fall? I don't know but I doubt ETH dies like you think. I don't particularly like ETH but I don't think it's a brutal investment

 

[BreadManPanarin]

It's not about the price being a difference; it's about heatmaps and candles on charts. When wicks get filled, it tells a story. A lot of sharps have 51k as the take off point; this week it could have filled but we held above 56k after Asian markets closed, If it holds here today, we likely shoot back up to 60k before we get to 51k. If we get back to 60k I will close a % of my positions and again look to jam heaps at 51k

I feel like this is quite a bit of overthinking, but if it ultimately helps you stack more bitcoin than you'd be able to by just DCAing then Gods Bless Ya.

I'm a simple man. I just buy more any time I have extra dollars, regardless of the price.

 

[2CHAINZ]

I feel like this is quite a bit of overthinking, but if it ultimately helps you stack more bitcoin than you'd be able to by just DCAing then Gods Bless Ya.

A small percentage of your portfolio should be swing traded in these halving cycles, There are so many gains to be had; you don't need to use leverage and you don't have to make a ton of trades but you should totally take advantage of the swings and accumulate more

 

[BreadManPanarin]

A small percentage of your portfolio should be swing traded in these halving cycles, There are so many gains to be had; you don't need to use leverage and you don't have to make a ton of trades but you should totally take advantage of the swings and accumulate more

I made 6 figures swing trading MSTR call options that I bought in 2023 and sold in 2024, so I get what you're saying. I just don't mess around with trading BTC. It is purely a savings vehicle for me. And I definitely agree that only a small percentage of one's portfolio should be used for trading.

Re: ETH, I don't think it is going to die. I just think ETHBTC will trend asymptotically toward 0 over the coming decades. Same with SOL and pretty much everything else. But certainly there will be many coins that outperform BTC over periods of months or even years. I just don't fancy myself as smart enough or lucky enough to guess which ones they'll be. Not to mention I don't have the time to spend trading them.

 

[2CHAINZ]

I made 6 figures swing trading MSTR call options that I bought in 2023 and sold in 2024, so I get what you're saying. I just don't mess around with trading BTC. It is purely a savings vehicle for me. And I definitely agree that only a small percentage of one's portfolio should be used for trading.

Re: ETH, I don't think it is going to die. I just think ETHBTC will trend asymptotically toward 0 over the coming decades. Same with SOL and pretty much everything else. But certainly there will be many coins that outperform BTC over periods of months or even years. I just don't fancy myself as smart enough or lucky enough to guess which ones they'll be. Not to mention I don't have the time to spend trading them.

Ya I use BTC as a savings vehicle as well but I like to take advantage of these scenarios to increase my holdings. I am a bitcoin maxi I have never and will never tell people to buy anything else, BTC is king. That said your dad's investment in ETH will likely yield a nice profit just tell him to take profits and not hold it forever.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

Ya I use BTC as a savings vehicle as well but I like to take advantage of these scenarios to increase my holdings. I am a bitcoin maxi I have never and will never tell people to buy anything else, BTC is king. That said your dad's investment in ETH will likely yield a nice profit just tell him to take profits and not hold it forever.

Yeah. I never meant that he wouldn't make gains on his ETH in dollar terms. Just meant that his purchasing power would likely increase more over time by just holding BTC instead.

I think in general we're mostly on the same page.

 

[2CHAINZ]

Yeah. I never meant that he wouldn't make gains on his ETH in dollar terms. Just meant that his purchasing power would likely increase more over time by just holding BTC instead.

I think in general we're mostly on the same page.

Ya we are and you're right but always remember gains are gains, take profits.

Buy Bitcoin

2CHHHAIIINNNZZZZ

 

[McGarnagle]

Finally starting to have expendable/investible money again after a few months of needing it for house stuff. Bought $600 worth yesterday at $58k. Little by little going to build my portfolio back up.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Something I've been asked by a soon-to-be retired finance guy who has been very curious about crypto currency...why hasn't it just bottomed out? BTC and ETH specifically are so volatile but even at the low's there is still a holding point and you don't have to worry about either of these two going to zero. I didn't have an answer for him.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

Something I've been asked by a soon-to-be retired finance guy who has been very curious about crypto currency...why hasn't it just bottomed out? BTC and ETH specifically are so volatile but even at the low's there is still a holding point and you don't have to worry about either of these two going to zero. I didn't have an answer for him.

I'm not sure I understand the question. Can you please rephrase it?