NFL: Crater for Caleb, Bad play for Maye - Bears clinch #1 pick via Panthers and rest of order set

[Marc the Habs Fan]

4 weeks in and clear cut contenders are emerging. Or should we just call it a potential golden opportunity for the Bears?

And yes, I know, Caleb Williams may just look at this sea of sucky teams and return to school. Or pull an Elway/Eli.

Based on SOS this is the order as of now:

#1 CHI 0-4
#2 CHI (via CAR) 0-4

In the race
#3 LV 1-3 (Jimmy G is fragile)
#4 DEN 1-3 (barely beat the Bears)
#5 MIN 1-3 (barely beat the Panthers)

Can't be discounted
CIN 1-3 (Could they pull a 1997 Spurs and just shutdown Burrow?)
ARZ 1-3 (Playing very hard for new coach but a very limited roster)

I don't think 1-3 teams like the Jets and Pats are going to suck enough.

 

[GKJ]

Even if Caleb stays, the 1OV pick will still be a quarterback as things stand. There could be an unprecedented number of round 1 QB’s, and if there aren’t, there will be great value in them in round 2.

 

[HisIceness]

The Panthers have this wrapped up

....oh wait

 

[Unholy Diver]

They won't do it but the Steelers should try

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

They won't do it but the Steelers should try

It may already be over for the 2 win teams.

The Bears could very well go 2-15 and since they play the NFC South and AFC West, their SOS should not be high.

BTW the Panthers @ Bears game is a TNF game, LOL.

 

[Unholy Diver]

It may already be over for the 2 win teams.

The Bears could very well go 2-15 and since they play the NFC South and AFC West, their SOS should not be high.

True but the Bears do stupid things, they might take like the 8th pick, a 3rd, and Dionte Johnson for the 1st OA

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Already mentally preparing for the Bears to draft Caleb Williams, a few hundred thousand meatheads in town pumping the franchise's tires yet again because they literally never learn, him turning into a bust (or, more accurately, the Bears ruining him like Indy did with Luck) because Chicago can't develop QB talent and clearly doesn't understand the position on an organizational level, and rinse and repeat for as long as the ownership remains in place.

 

[StreetHawk]

Already mentally preparing for the Bears to draft Caleb Williams, a few hundred thousand meatheads in town pumping the franchise's tires yet again because they literally never learn, him turning into a bust (or, more accurately, the Bears ruining him like Indy did with Luck) because Chicago can't develop QB talent and clearly doesn't understand the position on an organizational level, and rinse and repeat for as long as the ownership remains in place.

I said this about Lance, Fields, and any other QB coming into the draft with under 25 starts in college. Do you value the guaranteed rookie contract of being a top 5 pick, where it's around $25 mill plus guaranteed over 4 years?
Or do you think bigger than that at the 2nd contracts that Herbert, Burrow, Hurts, Allen, Jackson, etc. got that average $40-$50 mill per season? Where 1 season easily is worth more than the entire rookie contract if you play well enough. Even D. Jones got 2 years at $40 mill per.
But, you only get that if you are good enough on your rookie contract to secure a second one. Trubisky, Darnold, Baker didn't. I don't think at this point in time Lance, Wilson, Jones will even get their 5th year option picked up. Not sure if Fields would either.

Williams would have around 30 starts if he declares for the draft. Question is whether he should pull an Eli and force the Bears to trade the pick if he doesn't feel that they can develop him and risk his second NFL contract.

Pace/Eberflus, would be going into year 3, so the pressure to produce is there. And as a young QB, you don't want to have to swap HC so quickly. Unless, you get a massive upgrade which lawrence got going from Urban to Doug Pedersen.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Mayes is intriguing

There are some interesting QB prospects in this years draft

 

[kingsholygrail]

Caleb Williams couldn't save the Bears. He might also be a classic USC QB trap.

 

[Hasbro]

The Broncos will probably eke by the Jets, split versus Minny, Cleveland, Houston and NE and look like a competent team for one week against a better opponent and finish 5-12.

 

[GKJ]

Caleb Williams couldn't save the Bears. He might also be a classic USC QB trap.

Caleb was established before going to USC so that has nothing to do with it.

 

[BB88]

All the signs are looking like either the Bears or Panthers pick will be the #1 and the better of the 2 teams will be the #2 pick.

Bears sitting pretty on this one, Panthers not so much

 

[stats1]

Caleb Williams couldn't save the Bears. He might also be a classic USC QB trap.

You sound like you don’t follow much colllege football. Caleb was already a star with OK. All he did was follow Riley to USC. Dude is going to win his 2nd Heisman. He could he starting for half the teams in the NFL right now.
He’s better than what the Bears, NYG, Raiders, Jets, NO, TB, NE, CLE, GB + more all have right now at the QB position

 

[StreetHawk]

All the signs are looking like either the Bears or Panthers pick will be the #1 and the better of the 2 teams will be the #2 pick.

Bears sitting pretty on this one, Panthers not so much

Carolina still in a weaker division and they play the AFC South in the cross over. But, no question the pick they owe Chicago is going to be around pick 5 or possibly better. Not much different than the 1st that Chicago owed NYG in the Fields deal, which was #7. That's always the issue with trading up for a QB. Going to cost you your future first. See Houston and Watson, Philly and Wentz, LAR and Goff and KC with Mahomes (except that with KC, they had Smith at QB and made the PO with him).

NYJ and Buf managed to move up without giving up a future 1st. NYJ had an extra 2nd rounder from Seattle and gave up theirs for 2 straight drafts, so 3 extra 2nds to swap 3 spots. Buffalo moved a couple of vets in Darby and an OT to move up in the draft and gain extra picks. I believe they gave TB, 2 extra second rounders to move up. But, they were trading up for the 3rd QB off the board, vs a top 3 pick.

Panthers, they likely will be 0-6 before their bye in week 7 since they have Detroit and Miami on the road. Best shot at wins is going to come after their bye vs:
Houston - rookie QB battle
Indy - rookie QB battle
Chicago - vs the bad news Bears
Dallas - lucky to keep it close
Tenn - is Ten going to be in the PO race? If yes, they get Tanny. If no, probably by then we see one of Willis/Levis
TB - division game
NO - division game
ATL - division game at home
GB - Love has been up and down so far and their LT is oft injured
Jax
TB - Division home game

There are a few winnable games. They need to get them vs Houston, Indy, Chicago, win their home games vs TB and ATL, maybe steal one vs Ten/GB depending on Tenn's QB in that game and how Love has progressed during the season.

I mean, 0-4 was not shocking. Lost divisional road game vs ATL. Lost to a very good D vs NO with a vet QB. Lost vs a better Seattle team and a veteran Min team. At best, they stole 1 game vs ATL on the road or Min at home (but, I had expected better of Minnesota. Not to match their record from 2022 but a winning record 9-8 team or better).

Based on 2022 standings, 4 wins or less was a top 4 pick. 5 wins or less a top 6 pick. I don't see Carolina winning more than 5 games based on who they have left on their schedule. Even 6 wins was a top 7 pick.

 

[Voight]

If Cincy or Denver end up with the #1 pick - I presume they flip it and get a return that would make the Herschel Walker trade look small in comparison.

(I suppose Denver could keep it and draft Williams.... but the earliest they can get out of the Wilson contract is 2026 so I doubt it)

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

McCarthy and Nix seem like safe bets to be 1st round QB picks this year

Anyone think more potentially end up there such as Evers?

 

[StreetHawk]

If Cincy or Denver end up with the #1 pick - I presume they flip it and get a return that would make the Herschel Walker trade look small in comparison.

(I suppose Denver could keep it and draft Williams.... but the earliest they can get out of the Wilson contract is 2026 so I doubt it)

Denver, I can't see them doing anything other than cutting Wilson.

Wilson's 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed a week after the start of the 2024 league year in March. So you can't carry Wilson on your roster in 2024 without guaranteeing the 2025 year base salary. So, he's not going to redo his deal as his 2024 salary is already guaranteed. He's going to want to pick his spot if he leaves Denver.

An off-season cut means you eat $30 mill of remaining signing bonus. $22 mill of bonus for 2024 and $16 mill remaining of the prorated $20 mill bonus he got in 2023, and the $17 mill of guaranteed base salary in 2024. Not going to be any further ahead waiting 2 more years to have the dead cap drop to $31 mill for the 2026 season.

You are in a division with Mahomes and Herbert. Go and get your QB if you are that bad.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Caleb was established before going to USC so that has nothing to do with it.

You sound like you don’t follow much colllege football. Caleb was already a star with OK. All he did was follow Riley to USC. Dude is going to win his 2nd Heisman. He could he starting for half the teams in the NFL right now.
He’s better than what the Bears, NYG, Raiders, Jets, NO, TB, NE, CLE, GB + more all have right now at the QB position

Yes, but he's a USC QB now. The curse will still apply.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes, but he's a USC QB now. The curse will still apply.

Been a while for USC and their QBs. Best of the bunch over the past quarter century was Carson Palmer. Done in by a terrible knee injury and being on poor teams in Cin and Oak before landing in AZ in his early 30's for a couple of nice playoff runs.

But then Leinart, Sanchez, Barkley, Kessler, Darnold, nothing great at the NFL. Sanchez was solid, but he did need more development as a 1 year college starter, but when you go #6, does make sense to declare since that was pre rookie cap.

 

[SnS]

I still want to cry knowing the panthers don’t have a first round pick.


I think there’s a chance they lose every game this year.

 

[StreetHawk]

They knew the risk when they traded up. They are also eating $55 mill of dead cap including like $14 mill due to Moore.

I still want to cry knowing the panthers don’t have a first round pick.

I think there’s a chance they lose every game this year.

 

[BB88]

Carolina still in a weaker division and they play the AFC South in the cross over. But, no question the pick they owe Chicago is going to be around pick 5 or possibly better. Not much different than the 1st that Chicago owed NYG in the Fields deal, which was #7. That's always the issue with trading up for a QB. Going to cost you your future first. See Houston and Watson, Philly and Wentz, LAR and Goff and KC with Mahomes (except that with KC, they had Smith at QB and made the PO with him).

NYJ and Buf managed to move up without giving up a future 1st. NYJ had an extra 2nd rounder from Seattle and gave up theirs for 2 straight drafts, so 3 extra 2nds to swap 3 spots. Buffalo moved a couple of vets in Darby and an OT to move up in the draft and gain extra picks. I believe they gave TB, 2 extra second rounders to move up. But, they were trading up for the 3rd QB off the board, vs a top 3 pick.

Panthers, they likely will be 0-6 before their bye in week 7 since they have Detroit and Miami on the road. Best shot at wins is going to come after their bye vs:
Houston - rookie QB battle
Indy - rookie QB battle
Chicago - vs the bad news Bears
Dallas - lucky to keep it close
Tenn - is Ten going to be in the PO race? If yes, they get Tanny. If no, probably by then we see one of Willis/Levis
TB - division game
NO - division game
ATL - division game at home
GB - Love has been up and down so far and their LT is oft injured
Jax
TB - Division home game

There are a few winnable games. They need to get them vs Houston, Indy, Chicago, win their home games vs TB and ATL, maybe steal one vs Ten/GB depending on Tenn's QB in that game and how Love has progressed during the season.

I mean, 0-4 was not shocking. Lost divisional road game vs ATL. Lost to a very good D vs NO with a vet QB. Lost vs a better Seattle team and a veteran Min team. At best, they stole 1 game vs ATL on the road or Min at home (but, I had expected better of Minnesota. Not to match their record from 2022 but a winning record 9-8 team or better).

Based on 2022 standings, 4 wins or less was a top 4 pick. 5 wins or less a top 6 pick. I don't see Carolina winning more than 5 games based on who they have left on their schedule. Even 6 wins was a top 7 pick.

Bears and Panthers are the only teams without a win and when looking at the bottom of the standings you can easily make an argument for them being the worst 2 teams in the league with Arizona.

I don’t know why anyone would be a bigger favourite for the pick than any of Bears/Panthers/Cardinals

Jets, Giants, Vikings, Pats, Raiders, Broncos are easily going to be expected to win more games the rest of the way/have more faith in those teams than either of Bears/Panthers.
Even Cardinals are playing much better football than either of those teams

 

[StreetHawk]

E

Bears and Panthers are the only teams without a win and when looking at the bottom of the standings you can easily make an argument for them being the worst 2 teams in the league with Arizona.

I don’t know why anyone would be a bigger favourite for the pick than any of Bears/Panthers/Cardinals

Jets, Giants, Vikings, Pats, Raiders, Broncos are easily going to be expected to win more games the rest of the way/have more faith in those teams than either of Bears/Panthers.
Even Cardinals are playing much better football than either of those teams

Always going to be injuries throughout the season.
QBs like Watson, Jimmy, Rodgers, Richardson etc. have missed a start already. Teams have also been down multiple players at 1 position, like Seattle's OL, Giants OL, etc. So, just never know.

Giants were that Jones pick 6 away from making it a 1 score game vs Seattle early in the 4th Quarter. Bears were a Fields fumble away from potentially winning or controlling the game vs Denver.

Have to get to the half way mark of the schedule to get a good sense of the teams. Jets had a pretty tough start to their season with Buffalo, KC, Dallas, and NE who owns them. Don't think anyone expected 3-1 or better even with Rodgers at QB.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I may have to include the soon-to-be 1-4 Patriots as legit participants in this race. They look turrrible.