GDT: Coyotes get swept away by a Hurricane (hopefully)

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,330
102,073
Two of the most heavily invested fancy stat teams in the league have won the last three Stanly Cups. Along with coaches and staff that understand how to use and implement that information.

They are also two teams that have a Norris Trophy winner and a 1st overall pick on their squad. Interestingly enough, since the lockout in 2004, I think the only 2 teams to win the cup without either a 1st OA Pick or Norris Trophy winner on the roster was the 05/06 Hurricanes and the 18/19 blues.


Rod on the other hand doesn’t believe in analytics, and is either to narcissistic or arrogant to use the data that’s right there at his fingertips.

I know Rod plays the "Ah shucks, I'm just a simple guy" type approach, but I really have zero idea how much he believes in and utilizes analytics or not, nor how much his coaching staff does. I do know that he does things consistent with an analytics approach. Such as playing Staal's line almost as much as a 2nd line because analytics say it's dominant even if it's not scoring.. such as not putting together players we fans think should be together because analytics showed they were worse together.

and when he does something that is consistent with Analytics, but unpopular, (ahem...Martinook), the board doesn't like it.

You could be 100% right on Rod's use of analytics, or lack there-of, I just don't know.

Are there specific thing you see in analytics that the team should be doing more of?
 

Stickpucker

Playmaka
Jan 18, 2014
16,266
39,505
They are also two teams that have a Norris Trophy winner and a 1st overall pick on their squad. Interestingly enough, since the lockout in 2004, I think the only 2 teams to win the cup without either a 1st OA Pick or Norris Trophy winner on the roster was the 05/06 Hurricanes and the 18/19 blues.




I know Rod plays the "Ah shucks, I'm just a simple guy" type approach, but I really have zero idea how much he believes in and utilizes analytics or not, nor how much his coaching staff does. I do know that he does things consistent with an analytics approach. Such as playing Staal's line almost as much as a 2nd line because analytics say it's dominant even if it's not scoring.. such as not putting together players we fans think should be together because analytics showed they were worse together.

and when he does something that is consistent with Analytics, but unpopular, (ahem...Martinook), the board doesn't like it.

You could be 100% right on Rod's use of analytics, or lack there-of, I just don't know.

Are there specific thing you see in analytics that the team should be doing more of?

Putting Necas and Svech together?
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,330
102,073
Putting Necas and Svech together?

I would like to see Svech-Aho-Necas and stated that right when TT was injured. Someone posted that data shows Svech is better away from Aho than with him. So while I'd like to see it happen, I'm not sure it's analytic driven. Caveat: I'm taking that post at face value as I haven't researched it.
 

Chrispy

Salakuljettaja's Blues
Feb 25, 2009
8,763
28,527
Cary, NC
I would like to see Svech-Aho-Necas and stated that right when TT was injured. Someone posted that data shows Svech is better away from Aho than with him. So while I'd like to see it happen, I'm not sure it's analytic driven. Caveat: I'm taking that post at face value as I haven't researched it.
That’s one that the analytics cannot necessarily answer due to lack of info: does Svech playing well with Necas outweigh Svech playing well away from Aho?

I would lean toward playing this line because we have evidence both Svech and Aho individually play well with Necas.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,330
102,073
That’s one that the analytics cannot necessarily answer due to lack of info: does Svech playing well with Necas outweigh Svech playing well away from Aho?

I would lean toward playing this line because we have evidence both Svech and Aho individually play well with Necas.

Yes, that's what I was suggesting. It might make sense, but it might not be an analytic driven decision.
 
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ndp

Hurricanes Pessimist
Oct 29, 2015
1,460
4,380
Are there specific thing you see in analytics that the team should be doing more of?
Nothing specific, it just seems to me that in interviews I’ve read his attitude around the whole thing is very dismissive.

From this year:


”I don’t need some handy piece of paper to tell you that has to happen. Now, it’s nice to see that and say, ‘Oh, yeah, good, thank you.’ But you kind of know all this stuff already.”

“Canes captain Jordan Staal said he rarely looks at the analytics, noting players “understand the game they’ve played and the extra stuff, we let the (analytics) guys figure that out.”

To be fair that article does go on to say he does use them, sparingly.

From 2018, I would imagine some things have changed in his approach since then but still some decent insight into some of his thoughts and methods as a coach:


"I really do think it's not the X's and O's,"
Brind'Amour added. "The coaches in this league, they know how to coach. They know the game, but it's the little things. How do I get Jeff to be the best Jeff? How do I get Joe to be the best Joe? Well, you have to know them. You've got to figure it out, and that's where I'm learning."

This team could sure as shit use some X’s and O’s right about now.

This quote also maybe explains why he favors certain players. He either likes or doesn’t like them on a personal level. At least that’s how I read it to a degree.

If he were using analytics he wouldn’t be saying things like he did in The Athletic article about how moving Martinook up to the 1st line works almost every time. Maybe he’s referring to the guys playing better the next game? If there’s someway or somewhere to see that data I would love to know how many games the Hurricanes came back and won by moving Martinook to the first line.

The tools are there use them. When I put the deck boards on my new deck last week I didn’t trim them flush with a hand saw, I grabbed the circular saw.

Anyway, I just think the guy is hardheaded and it’s going to bite him and or the team in the ass at some point. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach, there likely isn’t a better motivator in the league, but motivation can only carry a team so far and the players wise up to that at some point. I personally think he would do much better with some assistants that: A. weren’t longtime friends of his. And B. Maybe took a more intellectual approach to the game. Timmy and Daniels weren’t exactly the cerebral types during their playing days.

Hopefully this is a huge jinx post, I’ll look like a huge dipshit, and they beat the pants off BOS here in a few hours!
 

ndp

Hurricanes Pessimist
Oct 29, 2015
1,460
4,380
Yes, that's what I was suggesting. It might make sense, but it might not be an analytic driven decision.
It does seem like an anti-analytics decision. That’s why teams need people who excel in all facets of the approach.

Does Svech score more away from Aho because they’re both having to carry their respective lines when not together?

What’s the breakdown on the rest of the teams scoring when they’re together vs separate?

What happens to Aho’s scoring away from Svech?

How many games did the team win with them separate vs together?

Spreading out the scoring isn’t worth a hill of beans when they’re not scoring to begin with, which seems to be the current issue.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,330
102,073
It does seem like an anti-analytics decision. That’s why teams need people who excel in all facets of the approach.

Does Svech score more away from Aho because they’re both having to carry their respective lines when not together?

What’s the breakdown on the rest of the teams scoring when they’re together vs separate?

What happens to Aho’s scoring away from Svech?

How many games did the team win with them separate vs together?

Spreading out the scoring isn’t worth a hill of beans when they’re not scoring to begin with, which seems to be the current issue.

You don't need to convince me. I advocated for this right when TT went down.
 
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Jul 18, 2010
26,719
57,542
Atlanta, GA
As long as the org uses them appropriately for player assessment, I’m not super concerned if Rod is super into them. They are descriptive in nature. They can provide insights but can’t necessarily directly help Rod do his job better. If the advanced stats say “this guy is getting hemmed in in his own zone”, Rod’s not gonna post that in the video room and say “hey, don’t get hemmed into your own zone, you know?”

Rod’s focus is coaching the things that lead to good analytics, not being super into what they say. That doesn’t mean that analytics can’t be a compass to determine whether the team’s playing well or poorly (and Rod has never outright rejected them), but it actually wouldn’t surprise me if Brind’Amour knows when the team is playing well or poorly before he gets the analytics report.

(Conversely, Tulsky might be able to accurately tell you how well Jordan Staal’s played this year, but probably has very little idea how to help him play better. A symbiotic thing here. I’m not surprised, though, that analytics would be more valuable to a front office making personnel decisions that by a coach in the middle of a season help a guy to forecheck more effectively.)
 

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