Speculation: Coyotes 2021 Offseason Roster Discussion Thread #2

[PainForShane]

What more should he have done?

He could've lost another game and a half over an 82 game season. That year we were the 2nd worst team behind buffalo so...

2014-15 NHL Standings | Hockey-Reference.com

I don't know that I agree with the "tank and then get amazing" but if we had started some random tucson goalie 5x that year we would've gotten Eichel instead of Dylan Strome. And then maybe right now instead of Buffalo we'd be the ones talking about trading Eichel for four 1st round picks

EDIT: Tucson hadn't started playing yet (first season was 2016-2017), point still remains. We finished 2 points above the last place team that year

 

[SniperHF]

What more should he have done?

I think his biggest mistake was probably in not identifying that the team that got us to the WCF had rotted away. He didn't go into 14-15 with a rebuild mindset though he did switch to it midstream when it became apparent.


There was also reporting around the time of the Barroway purge, that Maloney was met with resistance by the Ice Edge clowns over the full blown rebuild. Barroway who had just barely become Majority owner and only by 1% didn't have the IE clowns on the same page with him. It's not really clear that Maloney was ever given the option of a full nuke it rebuild, aside from the pivot around the Dubnyk trade through the McEichel draft.

TBH if Boedker and Hanzal didn't get hurt we probably wouldn't have finished 2nd worst.

 

[PainForShane]

I think his biggest mistake was probably in not identifying that the team that got us to the WCF had rotted away. He didn't go into 14-15 with a rebuild mindset though he did switch to it midstream when it became apparent.


There was also reporting around the time of the Barroway purge, that Maloney was met with resistance by the Ice Edge clowns over the full blown rebuild. Barroway who had just barely become Majority owner and only by 1% didn't have the IE clowns on the same page with him. It's not really clear that Maloney was ever given the option of a full nuke it rebuild, aside from the pivot around the Dubnyk trade through the McEichel draft.

TBH if Boedker and Hanzal didn't get hurt we probably wouldn't have finished 2nd worst.

That's a great point. I also very much doubt that Brian Armstrong has permission from the new owner to go full nuke either. No way that was part of his 5-year plan (i.e., the plan that got him the job in the first place)

 

[rt]

I think his biggest mistake was probably in not identifying that the team that got us to the WCF had rotted away. He didn't go into 14-15 with a rebuild mindset though he did switch to it midstream when it became apparent.


There was also reporting around the time of the Barroway purge, that Maloney was met with resistance by the Ice Edge clowns over the full blown rebuild. Barroway who had just barely become Majority owner and only by 1% didn't have the IE clowns on the same page with him. It's not really clear that Maloney was ever given the option of a full nuke it rebuild, aside from the pivot around the Dubnyk trade through the McEichel draft.

TBH if Boedker and Hanzal didn't get hurt we probably wouldn't have finished 2nd worst.

I meant what more could he have done to tank.

 

[Jamieh]

I meant what more could he have done to tank.

Traded Dubnyk sooner. Is that the right year??

 

[SniperHF]

I meant what more could he have done to tank.

Well I guess my point was a roundabout way of saying he probably wasn't allowed to or didn't think to, except until after it was already unraveling after the Dubnyk trade.

Traded Dubnyk sooner. Is that the right year??

Yes. We traded Dubnyk for the sake Smith's fee-fees by most accounts though not to actually tank. At least outwardly.

 

[Jamieh]

OK so I took a look. We won 1 too many games and the blame for that goes directly to Sam Freaking Gagner who had a goal and an assist in our only win in April, thanks for nothing.

 

[YotesFan47]

Rebuilds are long and I don't want to do that crap for the 3rd time in 25 years. Just buy our players for a while and draft with whatever we have. If a player doesn't work out, move him. Going through another rebuild now, after that fun 6 year trial run, would actually be tragic.

 

[YotesFan47]

Coaching Hires:
1. Todd Nelson (HC)
2. Ben Simon (AC, F/PP)
3. Jacques Martin (AC, D/PK)

Trades:
1. Kuemper for Jarry+2nd
2. OEL for Myers+2nd
3. Kessel(50%) for Yandle(50%)+2nd

UFA:
1. Blake Coleman, 3yrs, 17mil
2. Jamie Oleksiak, 3yrs, 14mil
3. Barclay Goodrow, 3yrs, 11mil
4. Jani Hakanpaa, 3yrs, 8mil
5. Kurtis Gabriel, 3yrs, 4mil

Keller-Dvorak-Coleman
Bunting-Schmaltz-Garland
Goodrow-Jenik-Jaskin
Crouse-Larsson-Pitlick
Gabriel

Chychrun-Myers
Oleksiak-Hakanpaa
Yandle-Lyubushkin
Provolnev

Hill/Jarry
Jarry/Hill

---

If the team sucks, trade Coleman, Oleksiak, Goodrow, Hakanpaa, and Gabriel at the deadline.

If the youngsters don't progress, trade Dvorak, Schmaltz, and Garland in the off-season/draft.

I think this is really close, minus Kessel for Yandle. I'm ready to move on from that relationship now. It took a long time and I often wanted to call him but, it's better this way.

With that out of the way, we still need to move Kessel for the rest of that forward group to work.

Also, I want to sign Forbort over Oleksiak. Ideally I have both.

I also keep Dvorak until the last year of his contract unless he wants to resign or someone blows me out of the water with a deal. He's a great 2c option and I'm perfectly happy with a 40-50 point 2 way player as my 2c. If I don't see Schmaltz as a long term option, I move him for BDA.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I guess it all depends upon Merueli’s willingness to sacrifice a few seasons in order to setup the club to compete for the cup rather than compete to get in the playoffs, which could be done next season I suppose.

 

[Jakey53]

Here's what will happen if we sell everyone off for the 23 and 24 drafts: We'll lose both lotteries and draft outside the top three. One of the two players we draft will be a bust and all we'll have to show for it is the same shitty product we've had for most of the last 20 years.

We had our chance to suck and go after McDavid and Matthews. We had no owner or budget and a perfect opportunity to secure the worst record in the league for about a 5 year span. Tippett f***ed that up by winning the most meaningless games in NHL history by playing scrap heap vets instead of at least giving us the opportunity to enjoy watching some prospects. That was proof the hockey gods (and Dave f***ing Tippett) will never let us draft a generational player. I'd rather they work towards having a team that is a franchise center away from being a contender and throw everything at Matthews. That probably won't work either but maybe we'll have a little better hockey to watch along the way.

So, it was DT's job and the players to LOSE games? The SC is the goal of every team every year, some are closer than others, but it's really cyclical and that is why drafting is so critical. Who knows what BA and his scouts can do, but I don't think they have tanking on their agenda. Like you said, they have to work towards having a team being a contender, not starting from scratch again. Then again, we have no idea what BA is thinking. The next few months will give us a much better idea what his vision is.

 

[Jakey53]

I feel like Chychrun, Keller and Crouse are comfortably in the camp with Hayton, Soderstrom, Jenik, Maccelli, and Prosvetov. And this is the group that still fits with Shane Wright or Brad Lambert, if it comes to that.

OEL, Kessel, and Kuemper are the obvious guys to try to move for assets. They make no sense for our timeline, even the most optimistic of timelines. It would be dumb to keep any of them, if we can get a someone decent future asset for any of them. If we can get anything meaningful at all for any of them, they gotta go. Regardless of the rest of the plan.

The head-scratchers are Dvorak, Schmaltz and Garland. All 25 years old, and don't really fit a Wright/Lambert/Bedard kind of timeline. I think these four are the key to the master plan. It's not so obvious what to do with these guys as it is with the two groups described above (keep the young ones, ditch the old ones).

For me, I think I'd hang onto this group and evaluate between now and the TDL. The fate of these three 25 year-olds depends not only on their performance, but the performance of that first group. If the young Phoenix trio is disappointing next season and/or the performance of the Tucson five is disappointing next season, and it's clear that the reinforcements to this 25 year old core just aren't going to be good enough, it's probably time to trade all four of the 25 year old group. Maximize returns and officially "rebuild" and/or "tank".

It's going to be interesting to see how long Garland signs for. Eichel and Reinhart are forcing their way out of that shit show in Buffalo, and how long before Chychrun does the same thing if we crap the bed this year? The average player does not have this leverage, but if Chychrun has another good year he might want out, same for Garland.

 

[Fyreman]

Rebuilds are long and I don't want to do that crap for the 3rd time in 25 years. Just buy our players for a while and draft with whatever we have. If a player doesn't work out, move him. Going through another rebuild now, after that fun 6 year trial run, would actually be tragic.

I see your point, I agree with you- BUT have we really had two (2) rebuilds in the last 25 yrs? I know we've had some very disjointed pseudo, looks kinda like a rebuild, fill the team with players that are 3rd & 4th liners punching above their weight class, but REALLY, full blown nuke-it rebuilds?

I've got to respectfully disagree.

 

[Mangosteen]

No team should ever tank. If a team tanks through management or play on ice the ownership should face multi-million dollar fine. Two fines forced the sale of the team.

We need to get rid of tanking culture in NHL.

 

[rt]

No team should ever tank. If a team tanks through management or play on ice the ownership should face multi-million dollar fine. Two fines forced the sale of the team.

We need to get rid of tanking culture in NHL.

The only way to do that is to make the lottery more wide open. They JUST put in a ton of rules to make it much more narrow. They’re doing the opposite of tanking discouragement. They’re actively making changes to encourage tanking.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

No team should ever tank. If a team tanks through management or play on ice the ownership should face multi-million dollar fine. Two fines forced the sale of the team.

We need to get rid of tanking culture in NHL.

It is the nature of the sports where player success can be accurately predicted prior to the draft. Look at the NBA and NFL. Tanking and rebuilding is the only way out of mediocrity. This doesn't hold for MLB but that is because it is far harder to predict performance of the kid baseball players prior to the draft.

 

[Mangosteen]

A simple rule I believe would have such a positive impact is only 1 top 3 pick every 5 years. Encouraging losing by play or management should not be rewarded

 

[Sm00chy]

Never been a huge fan of "tanking"...mainly because I have seen it NOT work too many times. Mainly when the Yotes have tried recently...Sabres also come to mind. Nothing is guaranteed so I think every team should try to win and get into the playoffs.

The playoffs this year are a great testament to.... "just get in and anything can happen".

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Ah ah imagine Bill Armstrong going for the GM interview last summer, with a massive presentation which would have looked like this, in summary:

Year 1 - try the playoffs
Year 2 and 3 - tank.

And being hired.

Joking aside, I cannot think for one second that GMBA is not going to do everything possible to line up a better team than last year. I am on board with that, the time to tank was many moons ago, not now, not soon in my mind.

 

[cobra427]

It is the nature of the sports where player success can be accurately predicted prior to the draft. Look at the NBA and NFL. Tanking and rebuilding is the only way out of mediocrity. This doesn't hold for MLB but that is because it is far harder to predict performance of the kid baseball players prior to the draft.

I hate the playing to lose mentality, coaches and GMs should always play to win. Tanking is a bad idea, it hasn't been proven that it works in the NHL anyway. I am against trading young assets or draft picks for vets to win now.
We should always keep our first and second round picks, we shouldn't trade them. The game is also getting younger and younger while the CBA way under pays ELCs, under pays RFAs, and over pays UFAs. We need to sign more ELCs, some RFAs and stay away from expensive UFAs. Only sign a UFA on a short term deal, 2 years max, less than $4 mill a year. Chayka killed us with the draft pick trades and penalties.

We have 2 over paid players with NTC/NMCs, OEL/Kessel. This is where the mistakes are made that kill your cap. We need to stay away from these types of deals, it kills our flexibility. An example would be when Chych gets to his UFA deal and wants an 8 year deal at $10 mill+ with an NMC, we should trade him, get some assets but avoid that type of contract. We have nothing but downside. I like Chych, not saying we should trade him at all now, just saying his next contract could be a trap.

If we trade younger good players, we should only do it where we have a surplus. Garland/Keller/Schmaltz come to mind, all similar smallish players. I would consider trading one of them if we can get a potential top 4D, maybe a first round pick, or larger winger that we don't have, some combination, change the mix.

Bottom line, lets take advantage of the CBA structure, sign ELC/RFA deals, less risk with more flexibility, and stay away from expensive UFAs/term/NTC contracts. The team has more upside and less downside with ELC/RFA deals and we take 90% of the risk in UFA/NMC/long term deals.

 

[Mangosteen]

I totally agree with you. Dougie H will get a stupid contract this off season that will screw a team for years to come.

In the next CBA a max 5 year term should be negotiated.

 

[Mosby]

Army has shown an ability to find talent without needing high picks. How many early first rounders on the Blues? Off the top of my head it’s Brayden Schenn and he was added through trade.

 

[YotesFan47]

I see your point, I agree with you- BUT have we really had two (2) rebuilds in the last 25 yrs? I know we've had some very disjointed pseudo, looks kinda like a rebuild, fill the team with players that are 3rd & 4th liners punching above their weight class, but REALLY, full blown nuke-it rebuilds?

I've got to respectfully disagree.

For sure we actively tanked at least 1 year. If you actively tank for multiple years than I think you're creating a huge issue that takes years to recover from. The only caveat is if you happen to land a few game breaking players and sign a few high end FAs to quality contracts that don't hamper your ability to compete in the future. We've spent a number of years in the lower half of the league, gathered players and let the roster chill in mediocrity while those players developed.

Not a great rebuilding strategy but we didn't have a ton of options given our financial situation.

Regardless, we have a core, we need to add the right complementary players to that core and see where we can actually go. I would argue our roster was built improperly but we don't have bad players. Strong coaching and roster refinement should put us in playoff contention every year, which is better for the products future. If we can grab additional picks in the 2nd and 3rd round each season while maintaining a competitive roster, we can move forward. This is especially true if Matthews is willing to sign here. He would give us our first #1 center since Tkuchuck.

Keller - Matthews - Schmaltz
Maccelli - Dvorak - Garland
McCartney - Jenik/Hayton - Ekefjard
Crouse - Farnacci - Fisher

Chychrun - RD
OEL - Crotty/Emberson
Bergkvist - Soderstrom

Hill
Prosvetov

That's filled in with some of our more promising looking prospects that could/will be ready in 3 years time. A few wins in the 2nd and 3rd rounds on top of not botching the next 3 1st rounders keeps us moving in the right direction. We have to have a winning culture in the NHL and AHL for any of this to come to fruition though. On top of that, if any of these guys are just barely good enough to make our roster but we are considered good and have depth at the positions they're trying to break through, we can potentially sell a tad higher to gain more picks to keep the boat rowing.

I just don't see a 5+ year rebuild when this is what I'm seeing as my potential roster in 3 years.

Put OEL, Kessel and Kuemper on the block. Trade Schmaltz before the start of the 23/24 season. Make smart signings that complement the roster and leave room to buy Matthews. If some of the prospects don't pan out, sign UFA's that fit the needs of the team. Seems like a super simple recipe for success and no scorched earth rebuild is necessary.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

When I look at the best teams, I see top 5 draft picks. Please show me examples of teams that went from mediocrity to contention on the backs of trades and UFA players. I would love to see winning hockey. I have season tickets after all and remember the misery of Tocchet's first season, the long drive home after loss after loss.

 

[YotesFan47]

I totally agree with you. Dougie H will get a stupid contract this off season that will screw a team for years to come.

In the next CBA a max 5 year term should be negotiated.

Let teams dig their grave, term is fine. Smart teams will make smart decisions with their players. TB has Johnson as their worst contract and they are dominate. Montreal has Drouin. NYI don't appear to have a bad contract, just some guys that are slightly overpaid. Vegas has some overpaid guys but no one on that roster is bad. These teams are where they are because they made wise decisions on cap management and have awesome coaching.

I'd rather give teams more power to remove contracts that turned out bad. If they buy out a player, don't make it count against the cap, make them pay additional fees into revenue sharing. This lets rich teams play like rich teams and allows poor teams to be more competitive.

I'd also let teams exceed the cap, paying a fine that goes into revenue sharing. If the Leafs want to spend $100,000,000 in cap, cool, you're over the cap by 18,500,000 and have to pay 9,250,000 in fines which are put into the revenue sharing pot. If the Ranger want to spend 150,000,000 in cap, cool, they are above the cap by 68,500,000 and have to pay 34,250,000 in fines.

I also allow teams to trade cash again. If a team wants to buy Soderstrom from us, great! Send us 10,000,000 and a 1st and he's yours for instance.

I think we need to open up options, not create more walls.