And yet the Leafs still controlled play, still got more scoring chances, and still won. That should tell you all you need to know right there.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
Please post the scoring chance data that you're referring to - for the sake of transparency.
Unless, of course, you're just making stuff up again.
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1. I have never "made stuff up".
2. The control of play and scoring data is easily visible while WATCHING games, something which you obviously do not do, yet this does not stop you from making wildly incorrect claims about the team in question.
3. As has been posted multiple times in this thread, and as I pointed out on the previous page, links to sites that show this specific data have been freely provided by multiple individuals in this thread. You are free to do the research if you do not believe what your eyes would tell you, if you actually watched the games.
But the biggest proof is in the pudding. WE WON. AGAIN. 71 games (78 including Playoffs) and counting.
(though technically, Leafs have been defying corsi for years, now we're just winning with it)
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Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
I watched the game.
By my recollection, the Capitals had more scoring chances. By a lot.
So who's right?
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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Thankfully there's an app for that.
Shots for Toronto at ES within 20 feet
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/inde...y&strength=Even&time=Regulation&search=Search
At the time of this post; 122 total Shots and Goals, 4 without (x,y) coordinates.
Average distance: 12.9 feet
Shooting Percentage: 17 goals / 122 shots = 13.9%
Shots against Toronto at ES within 20 feet
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/inde...y&strength=Even&time=Regulation&search=Search
At the time of this post; 152 total Shots and Goals, 8 without (x,y) coordinates.
Average distance: 12.7 feet
Shooting Percentage: 17 goals / 152 shots = 11.2%
Shot charts seem to disprove that Toronto gets more shots from in close than their opponents. That doesn't mean they aren't getting better chances, but that is harder to quantify.
Bear of Bad News
Your Third or Fourth Favorite HFBoards Admin
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The next person who can't follow the site-specific rules in the sticky (to the point: respect one another) will receive a forum ban.
tmlms13
Registered User
Jon Carlson's 6 unscreened shots into Reimer's chest from the point don't really count as scoring chances imo.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
Are the Leafs the only club sort of defying the corsi principle? If there was some comparisons, we could hope to identify a common denominator
Not to the same degree but Nashville a few years back was in the lower half of the league possession wise but were held in higher regard. The explanation was essentially Suter-Weber-Rinne. The common denominator in both cases seems to be goaltending, but some are still quite skeptical that Bernier and Reimer are truly elite top tier goalies in the long term. Obvious differences are the Leafs having tons more firepower up front compared to the Predators, but I don't think anyone's going to argue that Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are Suter and Weber.
struckbyaparkedcar
Guilty of Being Right
Nashville also had the most efficient PP in the league in 2012, and Suter/Weber were typically possession neutral, so the players really contributing to the Predators' terrible corsi stats were the depth.
Maybe if leaf fans start realizing they choke a lot In stead of blaming the refs they could fix this problem
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
They're certainly human in the way one might expect.
Evidence discloses that they favor the home team to some degree, as well as the team playing from behind.
opendoor
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- Dec 12, 2006
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The thing is, the Leafs aren't really defying anything. They're a mediocre even strength team in terms of results (only +2 in GF/GA) and after their hot start they've been a .500 team over the last 6 weeks despite having a pretty soft schedule. 8-8-3 in their last 19 and only 7 of those games were against teams currently in a playoff spot.
We'll see where they sit at Christmas after a pretty tough stretch (9 of their next 12 vs. playoff teams including games against SJS, BOS, LAK, STL, CHI, PHX, and DET).
We'll see where they sit at Christmas after a pretty tough stretch (9 of their next 12 vs. playoff teams including games against SJS, BOS, LAK, STL, CHI, PHX, and DET).
Dr Quincy
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- Jun 19, 2005
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While being decimated by injuries, especially up the middle.
The fact that we are .500 over that stretch only speaks to how good the Leafs are. Plus, nearly if not all teams have the same type of stretch if you manipulate the proper time periods over a season. We didn't only start playing this way 19 games ago, so why should that be the cut-off?
Funny how quickly "let's see where they are at American Thanksgiving" turns into "Let's see where they are at Christmas".
Leafs were one of the best corsi teams, but one of the worst actual teams for a couple years, proving the theories based on corsi wrong, or at least not representative of the whole subset.
Hammer Time
Registered User
- May 3, 2011
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The Bruins often did better than their Corsi (such as in their Cup winning year 2010-11). Chara (controlling shot quality), and Thomas (stopping a historic number of shots) were the biggest contributing factors. Nashville with Weber/Suter/Rinne was another good example.
I think a lot of people are calling the Leafs to flop mainly because they don't think Reimer/Bernier are as good as what the Bruins or Preds had, and the PK has already started to drop (getting Bozak back should help a ton though). Even if you look at shot location like some posters in this thread have, they're still giving up more shots from the prime scoring areas than they get, so shot quality doesn't explain everything.
To me, they're more the exception that proves the rule. Corsi is supposed to represent a team's ability to dominate the scoring chance battle at even strength - so by definition, you can "defy" it by getting extremely good goaltending or great special teams. In '10 the Leafs had a (literally) last-place PP, a last-place PK, and Toskala/Monster in net.
The Leafs have actually gotten off fairly easily in the past month (only two "great" opponents - PIT and BOS. Both games that had a great 20 minutes and got beaten heavily in the rest of the game). You can only play who you're against on the ice, but still, that raises some question marks. The Leafs haven't beaten a playoff team without going to shootout since Pittsburgh on Oct. 26. They've also lost two out of three to last-place Buffalo, which has 6 wins total.
On Tuesday they get the Sharks, and starting on the 8th they have five in a row against contenders. If they can put up 60 minute efforts and get a few wins over contenders, they're probably a great team. But if not, then they're just an average team in this league that can beat any non-playoff team but falls flat against the real elites of the league.
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If losing guys like Bolland and Bozak "devastates" your team, you're not a good team.
Also goaltending is the part you're referring to that Corsi doesn't capture.
The PK went from 2nd to 20th last night... Probably lower now. Bozak and Bolland both kill penalties
Micklebot
Moderator
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I can see Bozak being an issue because of faceoffs, but when you've got Kulemin, Van Reimsdyk and McClement all ahead of the 2 of the in SH toi/G, and a guy like Raymond in the same ballpark, the loss shouldn't be the end of the world. I'd guess goaltending has more to do with it. The only caveat is that the team no longer has the depth if one of the reg penalty killers is in the box.
Dr Quincy
Registered User
- Jun 19, 2005
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Replacing 2 of your top 3 centers with AHLers has a big impact. I don't know if anyone has done a study, but I'd say that would have a more negative impact on a team's winning than being outshot does.
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