I find it odd that a statistics argument has issue with the 6th and 7th seeded goalies in terms of SV%... They only need to drop a few points to fall right in line with the goalies of last season.
Erndog
Registered User
- Jul 17, 2007
- 4,091
- 1,543
Interesting that Carlyle sees what a lot of advanced stats guys see too:
James MÃrtle @mirtle
Carlyle: "We want more puck possession time. There's been a lot said our statistics proving out we're having success when we shouldn't be."
Heck, even if you aren't an advanced stats guy you see the Leafs generally get outplayed and almost always outshot, especially in 5 on 5 situations. I don't need exact numbers to back that up, but the Leafs certainly could benefit from more possessional play.
James MÃrtle @mirtle
Carlyle: "We want more puck possession time. There's been a lot said our statistics proving out we're having success when we shouldn't be."
Heck, even if you aren't an advanced stats guy you see the Leafs generally get outplayed and almost always outshot, especially in 5 on 5 situations. I don't need exact numbers to back that up, but the Leafs certainly could benefit from more possessional play.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
The issue is that those goalies are currently saving pucks at the same rate as Dominik Hasek in his prime.
The fact that they're 6th and 7th in the league is neither here nor there - the goalies ahead of them will fall too.
CanadianHockey
Smith - Alfie
Ottawa is experiencing this right now with Anderson's declining save percentage and the mediocre play of the D in front of the goalies.
Duh. Everybody could use more puck possession in an ideal world.
Fact is, this so-called lack of possession does not hurt the Leafs, and that's all that matters.
6-3-1 in their last 10, currently on a 2-game win streak.
Yep, really "leveling out". Only a 107 point pace.
Anderson is experiencing that because of the mediocre play of the D in front of the goalies.
He also only played 24 games last year, and was a pretty mediocre goalie for most of his career. Not comparable.
Quares27
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- Apr 3, 2013
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The Mighty Duck Man
R-E-L-A-X
I saw a shot chart from one of their games on reddit, and if accurate, Jesus does it add perspective(or rather, proof to what people have been saying). Half their shots come either right in front of the net or in the slot, but they maybe allow a third from the same areas. So, if you're getting outshot 30-20, the quality scoring chances are actually pretty damn close.
glucker
Registered User
Probably has nothing to do with missing their top-3 centers, eh?
Leafs have not iced a complete team once this season. Every game they've had at least one member of their top-9 forward group either injured or suspended.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
I thought I read an article that showed those shot graphics are usually pretty innacurate compared to where the shots actually came from. I'll try and find it.
deckercky
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2010
- 9,379
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http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1521655
It's the first article from that series I think, where it talks about methodology.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
We have, constantly. The data is also right there for all to see. You just don't want to see it.
Bear of Bad News
Your Third or Fourth Favorite HFBoards Admin
- Sep 27, 2005
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I'd like to see it, too - and the very nature of this sub-forum is to replace impressions with facts. Will you indulge me?
There's several links posted in here that I've seen showing the same thing. I don't think anyone has taken the time to actually go ahead and show a large collection in one graph though.
The Leafs played a darn good game against the Caps last night.
Reimer may have faced 50 shots but that total gets inflated because the Leafs essentially forced the Caps PP to work without Ovechkin. If they were going to score on the PP, Ovechkin wasn't getting a goal or an assist on it.
Should have been a shut out for Reimer but Ovechkin got a great bounce and buried it. Outside of that, Holtby might have been the busier of the two goalies as far as scoring chances go.
2 posts, some great saves by Holtby kept it a 1-0 game and they got a point out of it. I wouldn't mind getting outshot if the Leafs keep getting great chances on the shots they take.
Reimer may have faced 50 shots but that total gets inflated because the Leafs essentially forced the Caps PP to work without Ovechkin. If they were going to score on the PP, Ovechkin wasn't getting a goal or an assist on it.
Should have been a shut out for Reimer but Ovechkin got a great bounce and buried it. Outside of that, Holtby might have been the busier of the two goalies as far as scoring chances go.
2 posts, some great saves by Holtby kept it a 1-0 game and they got a point out of it. I wouldn't mind getting outshot if the Leafs keep getting great chances on the shots they take.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
The Leafs were terrible.
Actually - I just checked, and the Leafs conceded 101 attempts at net last night.
I do believe that's some kind of record. Literally - I have regular season data from 2007-11 and I don't believe that any team allowed that many attempts at net during that period.
And that's at home. Against a team that played the night before. Who themselves get outshot on average.
Wow.
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Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
The somekindofninja link is the only other link that related to shot location data for Toronto.
And it certainly isn't "showing the same thing."
And won again. That must really grind your gears.
The Leafs play at a 109 point pace when they lose Fenwick 5 on 5 (35-16-6 in 57 games) and only a 58 point pace when they win Fenwick 5 on 5 (5-9-0 in 14 games).
Of our top 10 Fenwick 5 on 5 games over the last two seasons, we've lost 7 of them:
1. 63.8% 3-1 LOSS
2. 61.8% 3-2 WIN
3. 58.8% 2-1 LOSS
4. 57.1% 4-2 LOSS
5. 56.1% 6-3 WIN
6. 55.4% 5-3 LOSS
7. 55.1% 3-1 LOSS
8. 53.1% 4-1 LOSS
9. 52.7% 5-2 LOSS
10. 52.0% 2-1 WIN
There is so much more to hockey than the number of shots you can take.
Leafs completely put the pressure on Ovechkin and took him out of the game. If not for a lucky bounce right onto his stick, Reimer gets a shut out.
Leafs themselves had great scoring chances. I'd say at least a third of the Leafs shots were legitimate scoring chances and Holtby was fantastic.
Out of those 50 shots, I bet John Carlson had over 7-8 of them and not one of them was dangerous.
Even Ovechkin's 6 shots...the only one that had a remote chance of going in was the shot that went in. There you go, that's ~13-15 shots that were garbage and easy saves for Reimer.
Ovechkin out there on the PP for nearly 6 minutes, never looked dangerous for a second because he was covered the entire time. They didn't give him any room to breathe let alone shoot.
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
Conceding over 100 attempts at home to a team having played the night before is really ****ing terrible - and reflects very poorly on the team that does so.
But I'm not a Leafs fan, so it doesn't bother me that much.
I appreciate your concern, though.
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