OT: Coronavirus XXI: School is Back in Session

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LaGu

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It’s tragic, there’s no other way to say it. Folks living in those hard hit areas have my deepest sympathies. However, it’s not exactly right to extrapolate the numbers from those areas across the world. We all know there are problems with counting the covid deaths. Some countries are over counting, some are probably under counting. Example: Japan with an extremely high percentage of elderly people has recorded 1636 covid deaths against a population of 125 million. Pretty sure that’s nowhere near the figures you keep quoting. So I mean there are a lot of differences in the way regions handled this pandemic and there are a lot of different outcomes.

Measures taken by Japan against covid include - early closure of international flights (still mostly shut down), early closure of all schools (reopened in September), several months of ‘voluntary’ restrictions on domestic travel, a month or so of ‘shelter at home’, again voluntary, and temporary closure of bars, pubs and eating establishments - now reopened but with restricted seating and operating hours still in place.
I agree, I am just trying to push back against the narrative that this is nothing more than a flu and that people should get on with their lives. Many factors play in of course, here I think it was a lot of unpreparedness. We were hit with something no one understood and it took too long to hit the panic button. If they would have moved into measures gradually, as they are doing right now here in light of the increasing case number, I am sure it would have been a much different story. At the end of the day though, in the worst hit province here there 6500 inhabitants passed away out of approximately 1'000'000, in a normal year for them that number should be a little bit over 1000. For me that is the worst case scenario, almost 0.5% of the entire population passed away from covid19, maltreatment or consequences during that extreme period. The specific counting is not as relevant when looking at this in perspective, the excess deaths tell the story, people died because of covid19, maybe many of them would have died in the next months or years anyway, but this is always the case with deceases and normal flu season for example. It is juts that this one is way worse though. A perfect storm of having an old population, not being prepared and not doing anything about it until it was already way too late. As I said, this is more or less a view on how things would/could have gone if we would just have gone on with our lives without any measures at all.
 

LaGu

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Go ahead Finland...do your best to convince me that the lockdowns were 100% necessary. Hit me with those stats and tell me how we could have saved a few more lives, because that is all that matters right? Good argument, Finland.
Not sure what this is about, I never said that lockdowns were 100% necessary. But I understand why they did it, and again there are lockdowns and lockdowns. Finland's would be on the lighter side of things, not in the same league as the ones in southern Europe, and they opened up pretty fast. Shops were open, public transport open, schools for younger children open and no curfews. They focused more on movement of people, from abroad and in between regions of the country.

As a result of the above strategy Finland's economy fared better than the Swedish for example. They were being praised just some weeks ago in FT "shutting down rapidly but not totally to get the pandemic under control and then opening up has [so far] been one of the most successful strategies in Europe". Same for Denmark and Norway, whose economies also did not take as big a hit as Sweden's. Now things are changing rapidly, but so I would not call them out right now for doing something wrong, they are success stories (in Europe) so far.

Sweden
100'000 + cases; 10'000 cases per 1M inhabitants.
5'900 fatalities; 584 fatalities per 1M inhabitants.
1'800'000 tests performed; 180'000 tests per 1M inhabitants.

Finland
12'700 + cases; 2'300 cases per 1M inhabitants.
350 fatalities; 63 fatalities per 1M inhabitants.
1'250'000 tests performed; 225'000 tests per 1M inhabitants.

So Finland did what wrong?
 
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CantHaveTkachev

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Not sure what this is about, I never said that lockdowns were 100% necessary. But I understand why they did it, and again there are lockdowns and lockdowns. Finland's would be on the lighter side of things, not in the same league as the ones in southern Europe, and they opened up pretty fast. Shops were open, public transport open, schools for younger children open and no curfews. They focused more on movement of people, from abroad and in between regions of the country.

As a result of the above strategy Finland's economy fared better than the Swedish for example. They were being praised just some weeks ago in FT "shutting down rapidly but not totally to get the pandemic under control and then opening up has [so far] been one of the most successful strategies in Europe". Same for Denmark and Norway, whose economies also did not take as big a hit as Sweden's. Now things are changing rapidly, but so I would not call them out right now for doing something wrong, they are success stories (in Europe) so far.

Sweden
100'000 + cases; 10'000 cases per 1M inhabitants.
5'900 fatalities; 584 fatalities per 1M inhabitants.
1'800'000 tests performed; 180'000 tests per 1M inhabitants.

Finland
12'700 + cases; 2'300 cases per 1M inhabitants.
350 fatalities; 63 fatalities per 1M inhabitants.
1'250'000 tests performed; 225'000 tests per 1M inhabitants.

So Finland did what wrong?
crazy much worse Finland's 2nd wave is compared to Sweden's
 

MaxR11

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Mar 28, 2017
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/14/canada-spin-class-coronavirus-masks/

The outbreak offers further evidence of the dangers of people gathering indoors without masks, as health experts warn that cases could spike further in the coming months as winter weather sets in and outdoor gatherings and exercise classes will be harder to maintain.

In August, South Korea confirmed dozens of cases linked to a single Starbucks in the city of Paju where many customers did not wear masks. The store employees, who wore masks, were not infected.

In May, after the reopening of a hair salon in Missouri that required masks, two stylists — who had worked with more than 100 clients — tested positive for the virus. But masks were required inside the salon, and of the several dozen customers who opted to be tested after their potential exposure, none of them tested positive.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
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People Die everyday what makes a Covid death anymore special?

Not asked of me, but I'll respond. The Novel Virus is different as per its name as its Zoonotic introduction to humans is relatively very recent. Any such virus, bacteria, plague, that features the unknown, the unquantified, is categorize as more dangerous (or should be) until more information is known.

With Covid-19 the concern goes much beyond just deaths. Its many other things. for instance why people not even self describing any breathing problems have medically comfirmed hypoxia complete with massive scarring, bleeding, of pus filled lungs that look like a horror story to any of the DRs reviewing. Or the very many other poorly understood organ effects, or the concerns with leakage of the brain or other circulatory pathways. We still don't know thy myriad effects, the whys, how come some described as "recovered" still have difficulty with any exertion several months later. Still labored breathing, still massive fatigue. So many cases in the world that have had this have not really recovered. That is inconsistent with most peoples experience recovering from an average flu. Most people recovering from flu might feel not up to par for weeks, maybe a month. But few would be having profound life impacting symptoms still more than half a year later.

Its not just the deaths, its more the unknowns of this affliction.

Finally the obvious difference in a spread pandemic is contagion. Epidemiologically that there isn't a root cause like Cholera, there isn't a specific compromised water pump tracked down to that caused an outbreak. No, with contagion pandemics the actions of everybody impact everybody. That is why the concern and discussion of actions is so pervasive in regards to a hosted and spread human pandemic. So that discussion of every bodies behaviors are completely natural within a Contagion pandemic.

just trying to break it down.
 
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LaGu

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crazy much worse Finland's 2nd wave is compared to Sweden's
What second wave? The one where they have 200-300 new cases per day, and 7 (total) fatalities over the last 3 weeks?

Sweden just had 700 new cases today, which is lower than last weeks number luckily... 8 fatalities today, more than the total of Finland over the last 3 weeks.


There is literally no metric in which you can say Sweden in any way or form has done or is doing better than Finland. Not one thing.

I am a Swede... So it hurts me to see this, but ut is the reality.




Edit: maybe I missed sarcasm in your post, in that case sorry!
 

MaxR11

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Mar 28, 2017
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In other news the Netherlands, with a population not even half that of Canada, just passed Canada Covid totals on the weekend. With fairly exploding numbers.

I do think people here are lying more though. I believe that 11% of people not isolating while symptomatic waiting for test results is way lower than actual. I think there are quite a lot of people now (maybe not early in the pandemic) that just dont give a darn and will be out and about symptomatic with or without covid. And I do believe it's the reason our numbers are rapidly rising. Basically, I don't think it's asymptomatic spread anymore (like maybe in April or May)... I think it's asymptomatic AND symptomatic spread now.

Even Hinshaw is concerned with people "being unwilling to share who they have been in contact with, or where they may have been exposed to the virus and where they have been while infectious, when contacted by provincial officials who are attempting to trace cases back to their origins" .

Imo, i think we are more inclined to withhold info or lie than our Dutch counterparts.
 

kevy999

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Sep 12, 2016
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Just the facts !
FB_IMG_1602695291726.jpg
 
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kevy999

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Not asked of me, but I'll respond. The Novel Virus is different as per its name as its Zoonotic introduction to humans is relatively very recent. Any such virus, bacteria, plague, that features the unknown, the unquantified, is categorize as more dangerous (or should be) until more information is known.

With Covid-19 the concern goes much beyond just deaths. Its many other things. for instance why people not even self describing any breathing problems have medically comfirmed hypoxia complete with massive scarring, bleeding, of pus filled lungs that look like a horror story to any of the DRs reviewing. Or the very many other poorly understood organ effects, or the concerns with leakage of the brain or other circulatory pathways. We still don't know thy myriad effects, the whys, how come some described as "recovered" still have difficulty with any exertion several months later. Still labored breathing, still massive fatigue. So many cases in the world that have had this have not really recovered. That is inconsistent with most peoples experience recovering from an average flu. Most people recovering from flu might feel not up to par for weeks, maybe a month. But few would be having profound life impacting symptoms still more than half a year later.

Its not just the deaths, its more the unknowns of this affliction.

Finally the obvious difference in a spread pandemic is contagion. Epidemiologically that there isn't a root cause like Cholera, there isn't a specific compromised water pump tracked down to that caused an outbreak. No, with contagion pandemics the actions of everybody impact everybody. That is why the concern and discussion of actions is so pervasive in regards to a hosted and spread human pandemic. So that discussion of every bodies behaviors are completely natural within a Contagion pandemic.

just trying to break it down.
Garbage!! You have been brainwashed about what ifs or maybe or potential to do. Facts are it is very rare for any decently healthy person to have any damage from this virus. You can pick any rare case in the world and there is millions back at you saying bull. There is no unknown at all because we know who it impacts the most, just like the flu. All this fear mongering about unknowns is laughable. You can say that about many things. Maybe message should be to get healthy and strengthen your immune systems.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
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I do think people here are lying more though. I believe that 11% of people not isolating while symptomatic waiting for test results is way lower than actual. I think there are quite a lot of people now (maybe not early in the pandemic) that just dont give a darn and will be out and about symptomatic with or without covid. And I do believe it's the reason our numbers are rapidly rising. Basically, I don't think it's asymptomatic spread anymore (like maybe in April or May)... I think it's asymptomatic AND symptomatic spread now.

Even Hinshaw is concerned with people "being unwilling to share who they have been in contact with, or where they may have been exposed to the virus and where they have been while infectious, when contacted by provincial officials who are attempting to trace cases back to their origins" .

Imo, i think we are more inclined to withhold info or lie than our Dutch counterparts.

The bolded is an interesting theory. It would in its basis be supported by Canada being exhibit A of anonymous society, particularly in cities, and in being a society not defined by one subset of mores, values, rules expectations. In other words we are a make it up as we go along hodge podge. Anything goes tends to be more replete in that environment. But other variables exist as well. Dutch probably veer more to extroversion, confidence, interaction, and a sense that the joi de vivre is the seeing of other people, continually, and always.

Canada in contrast being one of the most sparsely populated per land mass regions on Earth is probably more given to introversion. That we are very multicultural factors into that as well. These are interesting (I think) contrasts in respect of behaviors and a pandemic. We see within Canada that Quebec behavior and results looks generally much different than other provinces. Quebec too would probably select more for extroversion, people interaction, hugging, kissing.

But yeah, its much easier to lie in anonymous introverted society where people don't know each other. But easier to distance in that society as well.

Finally the amount of people describing "friends" as people online would be higher here than say in most places in Europe where first person contact remains the preferred mode, and friendship mode. Maybe our distance here makes us more susceptible to distance contacts. even within a sprawling city like Edmonton harder to meet in person. In Amsterdam one can bike fairly easily to 80% of the population one knows of.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,702
64,112
Islands in the stream.
Garbage!! You have been brainwashed about what ifs or maybe or potential to do. Facts are it is very rare for any decently healthy person to have any damage from this virus. You can pick any rare case in the world and there is millions back at you saying bull. There is no unknown at all because we know who it impacts the most, just like the flu. All this fear mongering about unknowns is laughable. You can say that about many things. Maybe message should be to get healthy and strengthen your immune systems.

Good morning to you Kevy!
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,702
64,112
Islands in the stream.
Nah this is me eating some lunch and going back to work and meet people soon. Have a great great day !

Hopefully more productive than my morning was heh. I'm almost run out of the home improvement projects I want to be doing and left with the ones I don't want to be doing, like plumbing and faucet swap outs. I hate plumbing. My wife loves having a things to do list...
 
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Raab

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Oct 6, 2007
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What second wave? The one where they have 200-300 new cases per day, and 7 (total) fatalities over the last 3 weeks?

Sweden just had 700 new cases today, which is lower than last weeks number luckily... 8 fatalities today, more than the total of Finland over the last 3 weeks.


There is literally no metric in which you can say Sweden in any way or form has done or is doing better than Finland. Not one thing.

I am a Swede... So it hurts me to see this, but ut is the reality.




Edit: maybe I missed sarcasm in your post, in that case sorry!

Where are you getting your numbers from?

sweden death rate covid - Google Search

Compare Sweden and Norway. I think we'll see a rise of cases in Finland in the next week or two. Will be interesting to see what their death rate looks like a month from now.
 

LaGu

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Hah, such BS!

I know lots of people who has had this virus, one of them a personal trainer in a gym in stockholm. Adict to healthy living and training. He was down for a month, no taste/smell, trouble breathing. Never needed to go the hospital, and of course he recovered in the end but give me a break.
 
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Raab

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Oct 6, 2007
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I do think people here are lying more though. I believe that 11% of people not isolating while symptomatic waiting for test results is way lower than actual. I think there are quite a lot of people now (maybe not early in the pandemic) that just dont give a darn and will be out and about symptomatic with or without covid. And I do believe it's the reason our numbers are rapidly rising. Basically, I don't think it's asymptomatic spread anymore (like maybe in April or May)... I think it's asymptomatic AND symptomatic spread now.

Even Hinshaw is concerned with people "being unwilling to share who they have been in contact with, or where they may have been exposed to the virus and where they have been while infectious, when contacted by provincial officials who are attempting to trace cases back to their origins" .

Imo, i think we are more inclined to withhold info or lie than our Dutch counterparts.

Asymptomatic spread is relatively low if it even happens.(Which they're still studying)

"5 The efficiency of observed transmission of infection from asymptomatic RT-PCR positive people appears to be low (two studies reported no transmission from asymptomatic cases, one quarantine center series reported an incidence of secondary infection of 0.3%, which was 20 fold lower than transmission to contacts from severe cases, and another reported transmission to 2.2% of traced contacts of Asymptomatic Transmission of asymptomatic people"

https://www.albertahealthservices.c...ag-asymptomatic-transmission-rapid-review.pdf
 
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LaGu

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Where are you getting your numbers from?

sweden death rate covid - Google Search

Compare Sweden and Norway. I think we'll see a rise of cases in Finland in the next week or two. Will be interesting to see what their death rate looks like a month from now.
From ecdc, john hopkins, or worldometer if you will. Worldometer is not very accurate though, but it'll give you the general trends fairly accurately.

Data from Sweden I get from the daily press briefings of the public health agency in sweden. Today 678 new cases and 8 deaths.

I only see the google data you linked to up until october 6. And it's a 14 day average so not reflective for the whole period (I was discussing lockdowns so the whole period is very relevant since they happend in march/april).

Let's see again in a month. I obviously think Finland's numbers will get worse. A cold country where people will move inside. Sweden's numbers should get worse as well.

Not sure if you are disagreeing or not? The numbers are pretty clear, Finland has a tenth of cases, less than a tenth deaths, but at the same time is testing more than Sweden. They did a partial and quick "lockdown" and are in good shape right now. There is nothing in Finland that looks worse than in Sweden, except maybe new cases relative all cases, but that is a really bad measure.
 

Raab

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Oct 6, 2007
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From ecdc, john hopkins, or worldometer if you will. Worldometer is not very accurate though, but it'll give you the general trends fairly accurately.

Data from Sweden I get from the daily press briefings of the public health agency in sweden. Today 678 new cases and 8 deaths.

I only see the google data you linked to up until october 6. And it's a 14 day average so not reflective for the whole period (I was discussing lockdowns so the whole period is very relevant since they happend in march/april).

Let's see again in a month. I obviously think Finland's numbers will get worse. A cold country where people will move inside. Sweden's numbers should get worse as well.

Not sure if you are disagreeing or not? The numbers are pretty clear, Finland has a tenth of cases, less than a tenth deaths, but at the same time is testing more than Sweden. They did a partial and quick "lockdown" and are in good shape right now. There is nothing in Finland that looks worse than in Sweden, except maybe new cases relative all cases, but that is a really bad measure.

I'm more interested in what happens with things re-opening. As I said countries that locked down should see higher death rates then Sweden who left everything open. I believe when everything is tallied up at the end the numbers will be relatively similar across the board. This "2nd wave", will actually just be a continuation of the 1st wave in locked down countries. Sweden should have a lower death rate this fall in comparison as a result.
 

Dorian2

Define that balance
Jul 17, 2009
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The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical society and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

AAEM-ACEP Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation | AAEM - American Academy of Emergency Medicine
 
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