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OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part III

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Baby Duck Homme said:
i work in travel. Have many friends in Italy and Spain. They sbsolutely were overwhelmed by this and NYC is even more vulnerable due to population density. I really hope I am wrong. Many hospitals are already at or past capacity.

My friend is an ER doctor in the John Hopkins system. He is preparing for the worst as we all should. This will definitely get worse. Much worse. I would be delighted to be wrong.

And a 2nd wave is certainly possible. There is usually a double hump in infection curves.

China said they were basically done with the virus.

China has ordered all its movie theaters to close again after more than 600 had reopened
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I know how overwhelmed Spain and Italy are. Luckily, the US health care system is better prepared for this than either of those countries were:

72XjIm6_d.jpg


That's before we factor in the the federal/state stockpile that are ready to be deployed. It's obviously not enough, this will get worse and NY is going to need more in the coming weeks, but from what I have read it's clear more help is on the way. To say it's "too late" for NYC is apocalyptic.

A second wave is definitely likely, but I am hopeful by that time the there is a consensus within the medical community regarding a cocktail of drugs for therapeutic treatment and we will have built up the infrastructure to better brace ourselves.
 
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Krams said:
I know how overwhelmed Spain and Italy are. Luckily, the US health care system is better prepared for this than either of those countries were:

72XjIm6_d.jpg


That's before we factor in the the federal/state stockpile that are ready to be deployed. It's obviously not enough, this will get worse and NY is going to need more in the coming weeks, but from what I have read it's clear more help is on the way. To say it's "too late" for NYC is apocalyptic.

A second wave is definitely likely, but I am hopeful by that time the there is a consensus within the medical community regarding a cocktail of drugs for therapeutic treatment and we will have built up the infrastructure to better brace ourselves.
Click to expand...
Those numbers are 11 years old from the US, hard to really put any stock into them.
 
Krams said:
I know how overwhelmed Spain and Italy are. Luckily, the US health care system is better prepared for this than either of those countries were:

72XjIm6_d.jpg


That's before we factor in the the federal/state stockpile that are ready to be deployed. It's obviously not enough, this will get worse and NY is going to need more in the coming weeks, but from what I have read it's clear more help is on the way. To say it's "too late" for NYC is apocalyptic.

A second wave is definitely likely, but I am hopeful by that time the there is a consensus within the medical community regarding a cocktail of drugs for therapeutic treatment and we will have built up the infrastructure to better brace ourselves.
Click to expand...

I am not a religious man. That said, I pray you are right. It seems like social distancing us indeed flattening the curve. I just hope we sustain it long enough. It takes several doctors to look after an ICU bed and operate a ventilator. They are the most precious resource here. If we don’t give them the protective gear they need we can get overwhelmed. Did you see what happened here: Entire senior home in New Jersey, 94 people, presumed to have coronavirus

Virtually the entire staff contracted COVID.
This can go sideways. I don’t want an apocalypse at all. I just am not fully certain we have truly prepared for the worst. Certainly not as much as we could’ve to this point.
 
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Trump invokes Defense Production Act against GM to force them to make the ventilators after GM continued to stall talks. Good move. Pathetic GM was trying to get more and more in the deal to delay things while people are dying.
 
Krams said:
Most recent available, I doubt that the US ratio has gone down, though other countries may have improved.
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The key metric is not total capacity but available capacity. The US probably has the most percentage of people using up those beds due to the rest of diseases not name COVID-19.
 
will1066 said:
The key metric is not total capacity but available capacity. The US probably has the most percentage of people using up those beds due to the rest of diseases not name COVID-19.
Click to expand...
Key metric is actually available "ICU beds". ICU bed =bed with ventilator & oxygen supply
 
Baby Duck Homme said:
i work in travel. Have many friends in Italy and Spain. They sbsolutely were overwhelmed by this and NYC is even more vulnerable due to population density. I really hope I am wrong. Many hospitals are already at or past capacity.

My friend is an ER doctor in the John Hopkins system. He is preparing for the worst as we all should. This will definitely get worse. Much worse. I would be delighted to be wrong.

And a 2nd wave is certainly possible. There is usually a double hump in infection curves.

China said they were basically done with the virus.

China has ordered all its movie theaters to close again after more than 600 had reopened
Click to expand...

I don’t worry that much about a 2nd wave. They say that the immunity the 1st wave builds up halts the spread significantly. Everyone are differently receptive to a specific virus. If 20-30% get it now, and of the remaining 70-80% some has a bit of a resistance against it naturally, it impacts the math pretty favorable.

In addition, this could very well be the last pandemic we see of this kind. Because when you look at the bill for this thing — boy will the world prepare to be ready if it ever happens again. Come back in 2022 and most industrial nations will be ready to test a ton of people instantly and have all kind of preparations in place.

And even if the second wave is coming sooner than that — those preparations will be on a whole different level in August or whenever.

In addition, and this is harder of course to get a grip of, but the resources put into this thing by elite scientists is downright absurd right now. There is a Swedish project where they simulate the data match of all existing relevant medicine and vaccines against the virus structure — that has gotten a lot of attention since they ran a Facebook campaign to get people to loan their computer capacity to the project. And the old professor in charge was a little annoyed when asked if the project “could find the cure” and referred to how there is close to a million people working on these things and so much about is just about finding more and more pieces to the puzzle.

Creating a vaccine used to take 5 years. But that was because you basically had 4-5 phases each taking a year. Now they have managed to cut those phases down to less time, and with financial resources you can run them parallel. Testing is extremely costly. Before you made sure that something was effective, then you tested it for side effects and in real life basically. Now they can pick out a bunch of hopeful candidates and test them while they are finding out if they are effective because everyone are offering funding.

My point is just, the only problem we have with this thing is that we really didn’t know what it was like a month ago. 3 weeks is a realllly short time. I don’t think anyone know for sure what we can do in 5 months — but I think that there certainly is a reason to be hopeful. Many inventions during WWII were state of the art 50 years later, and not just in weapons, but aviation, engines etc. Many inventions still are unchanged, especially in a car engine. Progress will be made. :)
 
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Ola said:
In addition, this could very well be the last pandemic we see of this kind. Because when you look at the bill for this thing — boy will the world prepare to be ready if it ever happens again. Come back in 2022 and most industrial nations will be ready to test a ton of people instantly and have all kind of preparations in place.
Click to expand...
Assuming we don't have the leader of one of those developed nations rip apart the team put together to combat pandemics...
 
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I'm pretty pissed/torn about what to do, I'm considered essential and work around 40 other people. We're outside, and rarely close or in groups of 3+. But it just seems stupid to continue working, add in the fact that I only have one giant lung instead of 2 normal lungs and I'm pretty f***ing worried.
 
Gardner McKay said:
I don't disagree at a lot of what you have said but to be fair, this is regarding Jay Inslee and out of context IMO. There is a large portion of text that precedes this quote. Inslee has been an absolute f*** during this process and is much different than other governors who may have have staunch disagreements with Trump but are at least trying to work with the federal government.

If this was with Cuomo or something, I think it would have a lot more validity as there really isn't a person alive who can dispute how well Cuomo has handled this. The entire text is based off Inslee.
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Strong disagree. The question was asked in the plural and answered in the plural.

Furthermore, whatever the immediate conversation beforehand, the larger context – as everyone in the room on both sides of the podium was fully aware – are the dozens of reports, both rumored and directly attributed, over weeks now, indicating strife with multiple governors who've criticized him/his response.
 
Clown Fiesta said:
I'm pretty pissed/torn about what to do, I'm considered essential and work around 40 other people. We're outside, and rarely close or in groups of 3+. But it just seems stupid to continue working, add in the fact that I only have one giant lung instead of 2 normal lungs and I'm pretty f***ing worried.
Click to expand...
go in the sauna for an hour and fake a fever, show up all sweaty
 
Brooklyn Rangers Fan said:
Strong disagree. The question was asked in the plural and answered in the plural.

Furthermore, whatever the immediate conversation beforehand, the larger context – as everyone in the room on both sides of the podium was fully aware – are the dozens of reports, both rumored and directly attributed, over weeks now, indicating strife with multiple governors who've criticized him/his response.
Click to expand...
Indeed. This is the larger context:
Trump: If New York Wants Ventilators Cuomo Better Start Kissing the Ring

"As for the notion that Trump is only willing to go to bat for people who flatter him, a White House official basically confirmed that’s exactly what’s happening. “If you’re good and respectful to [Trump], he will treat you the same—it’s that simple,” the official told the Daily Beast. “The president has always said that he fights back when he needs to, and the situation with [Cuomo] is no different. If you keep that in mind, their sort of seesaw relationship during [coronavirus] doesn’t come as a surprise.”"

kiss_it_game_of_thrones.gif
 
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Brooklyn Rangers Fan said:
Strong disagree. The question was asked in the plural and answered in the plural.

Furthermore, whatever the immediate conversation beforehand, the larger context – as everyone in the room on both sides of the podium was fully aware – are the dozens of reports, both rumored and directly attributed, over weeks now, indicating strife with multiple governors who've criticized him/his response.
Click to expand...

Which is fair. The way I interpreted it was that there was large praise for Cuomo and other Governors and that it was directed completely at Inslee.
 
Brooklyn Rangers Fan said:
Strong disagree. The question was asked in the plural and answered in the plural.

Furthermore, whatever the immediate conversation beforehand, the larger context – as everyone in the room on both sides of the podium was fully aware – are the dozens of reports, both rumored and directly attributed, over weeks now, indicating strife with multiple governors who've criticized him/his response.
Click to expand...

Which is fair. The way I interpreted it was that there was large praise for Cuomo and other Governors and that it was directed completely at Inslee.
 
Supplies, aid and support should go to where it is needed most. Not to the ones who would praise Trump the most. We need a leader who can shrug off slights and do the things needed to contain this.
 
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