If the call was not challenged, we'd have about a 76% chance of winning. If the challenge was successful, we'd have about a 92% chance of winning. If we were much closer to the end of the game, that's one thing. Being up 2 is barely much better than being up 1 with (say) 2 minutes left. With 18.5 minutes left, that 2nd goal still has a lot of value. And the cost of failure isn't a whole goal against -- it just looks like it because they scored on the 5v3.
Maintaining a 3-1 lead is about +16% to win rate. Getting that goal scored against us to tie the game was only about -26% win rate. But combined with the fact that the "win" of a challenge is a goal off the board and the cost of a challenge is only about 0.5 goals against even in this EXTREME circumstance (normally it's only about 0.2 goals against), 50/50 still makes it a correct call, just going by percentages.
Now, again, you think it's not a 50/50 call? That's another thing. Estimating that percent is a skill I want our video crew to get better at. But if you, the video guy, tell me that in your judgment it's 50/50 to get overturned? Even in that spot I challenge every time. I trust your judgment. Your my teammate, right? Even though we're both 'suits' we're still both on teammates, and teammates need to trust each other