Connor McDavid will go down as the 2nd best player of all-time

[daver]

If Lemieux played 84-85 to 92-93 in 2016-2024 (first 9 years)

85-86 (16-17):
79 GP: 33 G, 60 A, 93 PTS (1.18 PPG)
(56 EVP, 37 PPP, 0 SHP)
(23 EVG, 10 PPG, 33 EVA, 27 PPA)

This makes no sense. I am assuming you are using the very flawed method of "adjusting" using league GPG. They can be compared easily by how dominant they were vs. their competition.

In 85/86, Mario was the clear #2 in PPG over the best non-Oiler (Bossy, Stastny, Savard). He wins the Art Ross that season if not for Wayne. At the very least, it was as strong a sophomore season (2nd year after being drafted at age 18) as McDavid's and Crosby's.

In 86/87, Mario's PPG dominance was a bit better then takes it to a level that McDavid arguably hasn't hit in 87/88, and then hits Wayne-level in 88/89 and 92/93.

McDavid's PPG dominance is on the same level of Crosby's, the player that he should be compared to in order to rank all-time.

Full marks to McDavid for having the regular season resume that was expected from Crosby through 9 seasons. We will see how the rest of his career plays out.

If you are trying to argue that McDavid's best matches Mario's best, then where do we rate Kucherov and Mac this year for going toe-to-toe with McDavid or Draisaitl's playoff resume given he has a higher career playoff PPG?

 

[WalterLundy]

Well look 4 posts above yours, WalterLundy has shown using the best adjusted points metric available (adjusting ES, PP and SH points separately) that their first 9 seasons are basically a coin flip with McDavid coming out on top in total points, 5x the Art Ross trophies and even leading in points per game twice more. Lemieux has the one peak season comfortably better, but other than that it objectively looks like you could have McDavid ranked ahead after their first 9 seasons.

Just for the record too I’d still go with Lemieux as the better player even if he were transported from 85-93 into 16-24. Lemieux’s ‘89 is slightly better than ‘21 and ‘23 McDavid with ‘93 being clearly better than anything he’s done. I’d never argue peak McDavid over peak Lemieux even though McDavid has the best peak outside of the big 4.

Even for their peak stretches ‘88-‘93 (‘19-‘24) Lemieux has 646 in 362 (1.78) to McDavid’s 720 in 431 in that span (1.67). You are dealing with a 146 per 82 guy in Lemieux and 137 per 82 for McDavid. Lemieux also scores more goals so I’d go him but remarkable how McDavid can at least hold up against him.

For the awards section I couldn’t credit Lemieux with Harts or Ted Lindsays because of voting that we can’t guess on. He’d certainly have had a few though. Regardless even with those awards added in McDavid being healthier and playing more gives him an advantage in the trophy case and for totals.

Total PPG being 1.55 to 1.53 shows you that their first 9 year production as a whole is virtually the same. Obviously adjusted stats aren’t real and should be taken as a tool and not the end all be all but when you consider all of this I think the argument can and will someday go like this:

If McDavid can have an adjusted ppg that is in the range this close to Lemieux through 745 games (first retirement) or 915 games (full career) with as many or more awards at that point then the longevity after that point very well could vault him ahead. Lemieux‘s peak as as a player will always be clearly ahead but with McDavid being reasonably close there and virtually even for an even sample size, the awards and longevity would actually conceivably put him on top.

He still has work to do and there are no guarantees he passes Orr or Lemieux but it is very possible. I also understand the hesitation and resistance to the thought of this from older fans like myself and fans of Orr and Mario. Nobody is arguing better peak but better career. The better career is achievable and how players are traditionally ranked.

 

[daver]

If McDavid can have an adjusted ppg that is in the range this close to Lemieux through 745 games (first retirement) or 915 games (full career) with as many or more awards at that point then the longevity after that point very well could vault him ahead. Lemieux‘s peak as as a player will always be clearly ahead but with McDavid being reasonably close there and virtually even for an even sample size, the awards and longevity would actually conceivably put him on top.

Peak McDavid is clearly closer to peak Crosby and peak Jagr offensively than he is to peak Mario. And we know that as good as Jagr was, Mario was clearly above him as they played together in their primes.

You can argue that peak Howe is closer to those three than he is to Mario and Wayne but Howe's legacy is cemented by his unprecedented longevity and all around game.

Mario is usually #4 due to the large amount of time lost but he, and Wayne and Orr have peaks that have been untouchable.

McDavid needs some notable championship entries on his resume to broach the Big 4.

 

[CN8]

Crosby has no business being included in the Lemieux and Gretzky tier because he's obviously not as good as them. Him losing an Art Ross to Jamie Benn in one random year a decade ago is meaningless with that.

If he doesn't win a cup, he firmly ends up the #5 player of all time but most don't think he breaks into the top-4. If he wins a cup, he immediately breaks into that top-4 group and can legitimately end up #2 overall.

Very fair assessment
I think the Crosby losing to Benn is cherry picking. If McDavid has an off year next year and Elias Pederson wins the Ross I don’t know how much would change for me

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Just for the record too I’d still go with Lemieux as the better player even if he were transported from 85-93 into 16-24. Lemieux’s ‘89 is slightly better than ‘21 and ‘23 McDavid with ‘93 being clearly better than anything he’s done. I’d never argue peak McDavid over peak Lemieux even though McDavid has the best peak outside of the big 4.

Even for their peak stretches ‘88-‘93 (‘19-‘24) Lemieux has 646 in 362 (1.78) to McDavid’s 720 in 431 in that span (1.67). You are dealing with a 146 per 82 guy in Lemieux and 137 per 82 for McDavid. Lemieux also scores more goals so I’d go him but remarkable how McDavid can at least hold up against him.

For the awards section I couldn’t credit Lemieux with Harts or Ted Lindsays because of voting that we can’t guess on. He’d certainly have had a few though. Regardless even with those awards added in McDavid being healthier and playing more gives him an advantage in the trophy case and for totals.

Total PPG being 1.55 to 1.53 shows you that their first 9 year production as a whole is virtually the same. Obviously adjusted stats aren’t real and should be taken as a tool and not the end all be all but when you consider all of this I think the argument can and will someday go like this:

If McDavid can have an adjusted ppg that is in the range this close to Lemieux through 745 games (first retirement) or 915 games (full career) with as many or more awards at that point then the longevity after that point very well could vault him ahead. Lemieux‘s peak as as a player will always be clearly ahead but with McDavid being reasonably close there and virtually even for an even sample size, the awards and longevity would actually conceivably put him on top.

He still has work to do and there are no guarantees he passes Orr or Lemieux but it is very possible. I also understand the hesitation and resistance to the thought of this from older fans like myself and fans of Orr and Mario. Nobody is arguing better peak but better career. The better career is achievable and how players are traditionally ranked.

Without gretzky lemieux has 7 art ross n 5 harts those are facts

 

[Video Nasty]

Very fair assessment
I think the Crosby losing to Benn is cherry picking. If McDavid has an off year next year and Elias Pederson wins the Ross I don’t know how much would change for me

I’m going to briefly mention why Crosby losing to Benn is not cherry picking.

1. Crosby was coming off what is often described as one of the most dominant Art Ross wins ever.

2. It was only his age 27 season.

3. He finished behind Benn and Tavares. I hope no one thinks these are players comparable to Kucherov and MacKinnon, who I expect McDavid to still finish ahead of by the end of the season.

4. Crosby finished behind Benn AGAIN the following season while getting blown out by Kane who was only a year his junior.

5. It led to fumbling away the Art Ross as a 29 year old to 20 year old McDavid.

This is a three season stretch that led into never being heard from in a scoring race ever again.

We are asked too often to give Crosby the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the seasons he missed a bunch of games.

I’d be a lot more willing to do that, if he won the Art Ross he had in 2013-2014 and followed it up with scoring races he was still young enough and capable enough to win at age 27 and 28, and fend off sophomore McDavid while still being inside his 20s.

Verdict: Not Cherry-Picking

 

[Spirits]

I mean he's not horribly far off top 5 ever? I mean he's most likely top 10. And even then winning a cup now is a completely different task than it was for all the guys who are in the top 5. A strict cap is a major obstacle that Gretzky, Mario, etc never faced.

How many people in your top 10 never won a cup?

 

[WalterLundy]

Without gretzky lemieux has 7 art ross n 5 harts those are facts

Without Gretzky existing Lemieux wins the Ross in 1986 and would win in 1987 due to Kurri not having Gretzky with him. Plus 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1996 and 1997 that actually occurred so he’d actually have eight scoring titles.

All I was trying to do with my posts pertaining to Lemieux playing his first 9 in the last 9 years is show that yes he would be the best player and specifically at his peak but that McDavid’s first 9 are pretty much equal in total ppg for the period and that McDavid’s trophy case stays the same. If you just look at total first 9 years they are pretty much equal here with Lemieux having the higher peak. Believe me I agree with you that Lemieux will always be the better player but in all time rankings McDavid has a chance at number 2 for the reasons I outlined.

 

[The Abusement Park]

How many people in your top 10 never won a cup?

That wasn’t my original point? I’m saying Bourque leaving Boston and winning a cup didn’t affect his legacy. It won’t if Mcdavid wins his outside of Edmonton.

 

[tapi]

Mario dominated even more than Gretzky in his prime. There is no way McDavid is overtaking him, even he plays until 40 yo and surpassed Mario in some gross totals. Mario was on a different level.

 

[Sentinel]

Mario dominated even more than Gretzky in his prime. There is no way McDavid is overtaking him, even he plays until 40 yo and surpassed Mario in some gross totals. Mario was on a different level.

Mario did no such thing.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Let me guess you watched Crosby beat your team.

I'm Canadian.

But the Olympics are a joke

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Without Gretzky existing Lemieux wins the Ross in 1986 and would win in 1987 due to Kurri not having Gretzky with him. Plus 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1996 and 1997 that actually occurred so he’d actually have eight scoring titles.

All I was trying to do with my posts pertaining to Lemieux playing his first 9 in the last 9 years is show that yes he would be the best player and specifically at his peak but that McDavid’s first 9 are pretty much equal in total ppg for the period and that McDavid’s trophy case stays the same. If you just look at total first 9 years they are pretty much equal here with Lemieux having the higher peak. Believe me I agree with you that Lemieux will always be the better player but in all time rankings McDavid has a chance at number 2 for the reasons I outlined.

Those reasons also leave out that mario st a younger age and in 8 seasons already had 2 cups with 2 pmvp b2b while scoring 78 points combined. Which is the 2nd mist in a 2 year span next to waynes 82

 

[WalterLundy]

Those reasons also leave out that mario st a younger age and in 8 seasons already had 2 cups with 2 pmvp b2b while scoring 78 points combined. Which is the 2nd mist in a 2 year span next to waynes 82

Fair and that does matter but as long as cups and smythes come (which is necessary to be in the top 4 let alone 2nd ever) then we will be left with relative even sample size stats being virtually equal and awards in McDavid’s favor. Then at that point longevity will be what does it.

Like I said there are no guarantees that he passes Orr or Lemieux but it seems likely that given his career path that he will by careers end.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Fair and that does matter but as long as cups and smythes come (which is necessary to be in the top 4 let alone 2nd ever) then we will be left with relative even sample size stats being virtually equal and awards in McDavid’s favor. Then at that point longevity will be what does it.

Like I said there are no guarantees that he passes Orr or Lemieux but it seems likely that given his career path that he will by careers end.

Mcdavid is having a hard time beating out 28 year old mack and 30 year old kuch. Its going to go down to the wire and were 70+ games in. Lemieux had no trouble dispatching 27-28 year old Gretzky by 31 points in 2 less gp. Or prime Jagr in his highest scoring season by 12 points in 12 less gp. Thats the difference. Lemieux puts everyone today through the shredder

 

[gretzkyoilers]

Mcdavid is having a hard time beating out 28 year old mack and 30 year old kuch. Its going to go down to the wire and were 70+ games in. Lemieux had no trouble dispatching 27-28 year old Gretzky by 31 points in 2 less gp. Or prime Jagr in his highest scoring season by 12 points in 12 less gp. Thats the difference. Lemieux puts everyone today through the shredder

True. The separation that Wayne and Mario had was incredible. While McDavid is great his separation is not as dramatic. Before anyone cries this era is harder, scoring is way up over the past few years hence why so many 100 point players now....

 

[Video Nasty]

True. The separation that Wayne and Mario had was incredible. While McDavid is great his separation is not as dramatic. Before anyone cries this era is harder, scoring is way up over the past few years hence why so many 100 point players now....

McDavid shredded Kucherov and MacKinnon by 40 points just last season. It is taking a tandem of a slow start for McDavid due to injury and both players having their signature almost certainly peak career seasons and they’re probably still going to lose the scoring race. I don’t see this as the negative you guys do for McDavid.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

McDavid shredded Kucherov and MacKinnon by 40 points just last season. It is taking a tandem of a slow start for McDavid due to injury and both players having their signature almost certainly peak career seasons and they’re probably still going to lose the scoring race. I don’t see this as the negative you guys do for McDavid.

Not a slight at all against McDavid and I think he is one of the greatest players of all time and I love watching him. As for prime Mario in 1992-1993 for 160 points in 60 games (next down was 148 in 84 games) AFTER have aggressive radiation treatments for cancer causing him to miss 2 months and 20 games. Not the same as playing through an injury....

 

[x Tame Impala]

That wasn’t my original point? I’m saying Bourque leaving Boston and winning a cup didn’t affect his legacy. It won’t if Mcdavid wins his outside of Edmonton.

No one is saying Bourque is the 2nd best player ever though. Huge difference. McDavid never winning a Cup and being regarded as the 2nd best player, 2nd only to WAYNE GRETZKY, would be a tough pill to swallow for hockey fans.

The closest example I can think of would be Barry Bonds never winning a World Series despite being arguably the best hitter of all time. But that's baseball and there are different dynamics in play compared to hockey

 

[WalterLundy]

Mcdavid is having a hard time beating out 28 year old mack and 30 year old kuch. Its going to go down to the wire and were 70+ games in. Lemieux had no trouble dispatching 27-28 year old Gretzky by 31 points in 2 less gp. Or prime Jagr in his highest scoring season by 12 points in 12 less gp. Thats the difference. Lemieux puts everyone today through the shredder

Seasons that would exceed 142 points (McDavid’s current Ross winning pace) in 2023-24 scoring levels:
EVG: 2.36, PPG: 0.63, SHG: 0.09

‘82 Gretzky:
80 GP: 161 PTS (2.01)
(116 EVP, 39 PPP, 6 SHP)

‘83 Gretzky:
80 GP: 155 PTS (1.94)
(109 EVP, 38 PPP, 8 SHP)

‘84 Gretzky:
74 GP: 157 PTS (2.12)
(110 EVP, 32 PPP, 15 SHP)

‘85 Gretzky:
80 GP: 163 PTS (2.04)
(120 EVP, 31 PPP, 12 SHP)

‘86 Gretzky:
80 GP: 165 PTS (2.06)
(120 EVP, 33 PPP, 12 SHP)

‘87 Gretzky:
79 GP: 151 PTS (1.91)
(110 EVP, 32 PPP, 9 SHP)

‘89 Lemieux:
76 GP: 153 PTS (2.01)
(95 EVP, 47 PPP, 11 SHP)

‘91 Gretzky:
78 GP: 143 PTS (1.83)
(100 EVP, 42 PPP, 1 SHP)

‘96 Lemieux:
70 GP: 143 PTS (2.04)
(82 EVP, 55 PPP, 6 SHP)

‘96 Jagr:
82 GP: 144 PTS (1.76)
(106 EVP, 36 PPP, 2 SHP)

‘99 Jagr:
81 GP: 146 PTS (1.80)
(105 EVP, 40 PPP, 1 SHP)

‘23 McDavid:
82 GP: 149 PTS (1.82)
(74 EVP, 69 PPP, 6 SHP)

We have three players this year at the following paces:
McDavid: 142 (1.77)
Kucherov: 141 (1.74)
MacKinnon: 139 (1.69)

When you look at the only seasons in the last 44 years that would beat these you have 7 Gretzky seasons, 2 Lemieux, 2 Jagr and 1 McDavid. People really need to start to understand how good the top end talent is in the league right now. It’s not just because scoring is higher, these are flat out the best performances we have seen in nearly 30 years. All three of the Ross worthy seasons we see currently are all time great seasons period.

Considering that Kucherov and MacKinnon are having easy top 15 single seasons of the last 44 years it is crazy that it took McDavid 110 points in his last 55 games to be where he is now. That 2 points per game stretch alone is comparable to the Gretzky and Lemieux years on here when translated into 2024 levels and that’s excluding his ‘21 season that would be worth 112 in 56 games (2.00 PPG) as well right now.

While Lemieux’s peak is better when you account for everything he doesn’t put McDavid through the shredder. We are looking at a difference of a few points for pace in 82 games here. Even if you use ‘93 Lemieux that is worth 132 in 60 in this season’s levels (2.20). That would be 180 in 82 pace right now compared to McDavid’s best of 164 in 82 pace. Clearly better but not the utter destruction it is propagated as.

Gretzky’s best comparable 56-60 game span was ‘84 with his first 57 games being worth 132 points now (2.35) or a 193 pace. 13 points of pace separate absolute peak Lemieux and absolute peak Gretzky. 16 points of pace separate absolute peak Lemieux and absolute peak McDavid. Nobody is willing to say that peak Gretzky and Lemieux aren’t at least “close” so that applies to McDavid and he as well.

 

[The Abusement Park]

No one is saying Bourque is the 2nd best player ever though. Huge difference. McDavid never winning a Cup and being regarded as the 2nd best player, 2nd only to WAYNE GRETZKY, would be a tough pill to swallow for hockey fans.

The closest example I can think of would be Barry Bonds never winning a World Series despite being arguably the best hitter of all time. But that's baseball and there are different dynamics in play compared to hockey

I’m not even saying if he doesn’t win a cup. He was saying him winning a cup outside of Edmonton would negatively affect his legacy, to which I said Bourque not winning a cup in Boston didn’t negatively affect his legacy.

 

[paracord]

Mario dominated even more than Gretzky in his prime. There is no way McDavid is overtaking him, even he plays until 40 yo and surpassed Mario in some gross totals. Mario was on a different level.

Exactly. And just like Crosby is starting to overtake some of Mario's records in terms of gross totals, I have no doubt that McDavid will do that too at some point if he stays healthy.

That doesn't mean either would overtake him in all-time rankings.

 

[paracord]

Seasons that would exceed 142 points (McDavid’s current Ross winning pace) in 2023-24 scoring levels:
EVG: 2.36, PPG: 0.63, SHG: 0.09

‘82 Gretzky:
80 GP: 161 PTS (2.01)
(116 EVP, 39 PPP, 6 SHP)

‘83 Gretzky:
80 GP: 155 PTS (1.94)
(109 EVP, 38 PPP, 8 SHP)

‘84 Gretzky:
74 GP: 157 PTS (2.12)
(110 EVP, 32 PPP, 15 SHP)

‘85 Gretzky:
80 GP: 163 PTS (2.04)
(120 EVP, 31 PPP, 12 SHP)

‘86 Gretzky:
80 GP: 165 PTS (2.06)
(120 EVP, 33 PPP, 12 SHP)

‘87 Gretzky:
79 GP: 151 PTS (1.91)
(110 EVP, 32 PPP, 9 SHP)

‘89 Lemieux:
76 GP: 153 PTS (2.01)
(95 EVP, 47 PPP, 11 SHP)

‘91 Gretzky:
78 GP: 143 PTS (1.83)
(100 EVP, 42 PPP, 1 SHP)

‘96 Lemieux:
70 GP: 143 PTS (2.04)
(82 EVP, 55 PPP, 6 SHP)

‘96 Jagr:
82 GP: 144 PTS (1.76)
(106 EVP, 36 PPP, 2 SHP)

‘99 Jagr:
81 GP: 146 PTS (1.80)
(105 EVP, 40 PPP, 1 SHP)

‘23 McDavid:
82 GP: 149 PTS (1.82)
(74 EVP, 69 PPP, 6 SHP)

We have three players this year at the following paces:
McDavid: 142 (1.77)
Kucherov: 141 (1.74)
MacKinnon: 139 (1.69)

When you look at the only seasons in the last 44 years that would beat these you have 7 Gretzky seasons, 2 Lemieux, 2 Jagr and 1 McDavid. People really need to start to understand how good the top end talent is in the league right now. It’s not just because scoring is higher, these are flat out the best performances we have seen in nearly 30 years. All three of the Ross worthy seasons we see currently are all time great seasons period.

Considering that Kucherov and MacKinnon are having easy top 15 single seasons of the last 44 years it is crazy that it took McDavid 110 points in his last 55 games to be where he is now. That 2 points per game stretch alone is comparable to the Gretzky and Lemieux years on here when translated into 2024 levels and that’s excluding his ‘21 season that would be worth 112 in 56 games (2.00 PPG) as well right now.

While Lemieux’s peak is better when you account for everything he doesn’t put McDavid through the shredder. We are looking at a difference of a few points for pace in 82 games here. Even if you use ‘93 Lemieux that is worth 132 in 60 in this season’s levels (2.20). That would be 180 in 82 pace right now compared to McDavid’s best of 164 in 82 pace. Clearly better but not the utter destruction it is propagated as.

Gretzky’s best comparable 56-60 game span was ‘84 with his first 57 games being worth 132 points now (2.35) or a 193 pace. 13 points of pace separate absolute peak Lemieux and absolute peak Gretzky. 16 points of pace separate absolute peak Lemieux and absolute peak McDavid. Nobody is willing to say that peak Gretzky and Lemieux aren’t at least “close” so that applies to McDavid and he as well.

Lemieux puts 29 goals in 71 games through the shredder.

 

[cupface52]

Lemieux puts 29 goals in 71 games through the shredder.

Not enough Powerplays for Lemieux, his specialty.

 

[WalterLundy]

Lemieux puts 29 goals in 71 games through the shredder.

Luckily there is more to hockey than goal scoring. Lemieux wouldn’t be able to put 97 assists in 71 games through a shredder. That’s an assist per game and assist total that he never hits when translated to today’s game. He also only marginally passes 64 goals in 2023 levels (66 is the figure for his ‘89 year). He is a better peak player than McDavid but he isn’t demolishing him at anything. McDavid’s first 9 are as good as his first 9.