Value of: Connor Brown to contender

[sens13]

No he won't. He's a 3rd liner on most contenders. Comparing him to cup champion Coleman seems stupid

lol how is mentioning coleman as a cup champion relevant? I'm using coleman as a comp when he got traded. He got a 1st+ and a good prospect for 1 and a half years

coleman last 2 seasons before he got traded
18/19-0.46 ppg
19/20-0.54 ppg

brown last 2 seasons:
19/20- 0.6ppg
20/21- 0.62 ppg

Maybe don't call people stupid when you can't even back up your point.

 

[sens13]

Corsi is corsi. High danger stats are high danger stats. Opinions are bent, warped and twisted. Numbers are real and tangible.

I like Brown. He's a good 3rd liner who can play on our 2nd line if we lose one of our top 4 wingers. Comparing him defensively to players like Coleman, Danault and Pageau is a bit ridiculous though. Expecting a 2nd line center return for a good 3rd line winger is also ridiculous. Brown would return a 1st if you take cap back. He won't return the 1st, 2nd and 3rd some here are suggesting.

nick foligno got a 1st at last years deadline. How can brown not get a 1st+ if he's traded with more term and is the better player?

If the sens do trade him now there's no way they would have to take cap back to get a 1st.

 

[Double Dion]

nick foligno got a 1st at last years deadline. How can brown not get a 1st+ if he's traded with more term and is the better player?

Foligno brought size, toughness and a good playoff resume to a team that thought that those were missing ingredients. Does Brown bring size, toughness or a good playoff resume?

I hate threads like this where players I like get overvalued by their fanbases. It's like when Rags fans though 8OA wasn't enough for Buchnevich. I like Buchnevich and I like Brown, but you're overvaluing your player here. Good undersized 3rd liners don't bring back a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Xspyrit]

There's a lot of falsehoods in your statement. Brown hasn't had a positive relative corsi in 5 seasons. He's a decent defensive player, but he's definitely not much above average in that regard. Brown was 17th in Selke votes, but most definitely didn't deserve to be. Yes he's deployed defensively but it's more of a product of the Sens not having many good defensive players. In Calgary he'd be below average defensively in our forward group, even though I'd say he is above average overall. Let's not pretend we are talking Mangiapane here. We most definitely aren't.

I think that's where our conversation will have to stop. You can't really expect a positive corsi with a 62.2 dZS%, that's just not realistic. And it's going to be misleading to look at CF% as Ottawa is a poor rebuilding team getting overwhelmed on many nights, you need to look at CF% rel, which is - 1.6 in Ottawa for Brown. Kinda impressive due to deployment, QoT and QoC

He's a "decent" defensive player lol

And what the hell does it have to do with Mangiapane?

Like I said, there's always a limit to what people know/understand on a subject. Let'ss end it here.

The fact that you keep calling him "a good 3rd liner who can play on our 2nd line" shows your lack of understanding of the game and what Brown has become the last few years. He's a Blake Coleman caliber player with more offense.

The only way Brown doesn't net the same return would be because Pierre Dorion is the worst GM in the NHL (bar none)

 

[Double Dion]

I think that's where our conversation will have to stop. You can't really expect a positive corsi with a 62.2 dZS%, that's just not realistic. And it's going to be misleading to look at CF%, you need to look at CF% rel, which is - 1.6 in Ottawa for Brown. Kinda impressive due to deployment.

He's a "decent" defensive player lol

And what the hell does it have to do with Mangiapane?

Like I said, there's always a limit to what people know/understand on a subject. Let'ss end it here.

The players you listed all have zone starts worse than that and post positive corsi stats. You're comparing him to Coleman, Pageau and Danault.

I don't think you understand what relative corsi is. If you did, you would realize it's not helping to tell the story you think it is. It means he's 1.6% worse than the rest of his teammates.

 

[sens13]

Foligno brought size, toughness and a good playoff resume to a team that thought that those were missing ingredients. Does Brown bring size, toughness or a good playoff resume?

I hate threads like this where players I like get overvalued by their fanbases. It's like when Rags fans though 8OA wasn't enough for Buchnevich. I like Buchnevich and I like Brown, but you're overvaluing your player here. Good undersized 3rd liners don't bring back a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

you keep on calling him a third liner yet he's paced 50+ for last 2 seasons. Seems like your the one who's undervaluing him.
He was 3rd liner on the leafs. On the sens he's become a good defensive player with 50 point potential.

And you keep on missing the point that both pageau/folgno were traded at the deadline. brown has term. he's just not a rental.

 

[Seattlebjprice]

Brown is a good defensive player. Coleman is arguably the best defensive wing in the entire NHL.

woah.
No.

throttle. Back. Right. Now.

lol.

 

[Double Dion]

you keep on calling him a third liner yet he's paced 50+ for last 2 seasons. Seems like your the one who's undervaluing him.
He was 3rd liner on the leafs. On the sens he's become a good defensive player with 50 point potential.

And you keep on missing the point that both pageau/folgno were traded at the deadline. brown has term. he's just not a rental.

He hasn't paced 50+ points the last 2 seasons. He has in one of them. A shortened season where you played 6 teams over and over.

Pageau and Foligno are not comparable players. I don't know how that is hard to understand. Pageau is a do everything center who is elite in the dot and excellent defensively. Foligno is a big power forward who has scored 30 goals in the NHL.

Brown compares to a slightly lesser version of Toffoli. He returned a 2nd. I've said a 1st if you take back a comparable contract.

 

[Xspyrit]

The players you listed all have zone starts worse than that and post positive corsi stats. You're comparing him to Coleman, Pageau and Danault.

I don't think you understand what relative corsi is. If you did, you would realize it's not helping to tell the story you think it is. It means he's 1.6% worse than the rest of his teammates.

lol, again our conversation can't really go any farther. We can try if you want but it won't result in anything. I will keep posting for the benefit of people wanting to get informed on Connor Brown. Everything is written in the post but I was still editing so maybe you missed a bit of info

dZS% + QoT + QoC + which team they play for

Danault played with Tatar and Gallagher, 0.7 CF% rel despite less dZS%, better linemates, etc

And I mean, Danault is considered one of the best defensive players in the league...

Now look at Pageau, similar dZS% + QoT + QoC (although he had the luxury to play with Mark Stone) and his CF% rel is (edit : MINUS) - 4.8 in Ottawa... while the team was MUCH better than during Brown's time in Ottawa

I also did NOT compare Brown with Danault and Pageau, I simply said these guys are also considered as "3rd liners" by plenty of fans. But it just doesn't work like that internally in pro hockey teams.

"he's 1.6% worse than the rest of his teammates" because he starts his shifts 2/3 of the time in the defensive zone (F/o, on the fly, etc) and his MISSION is to shut down the best hockey players in the world. Even with limited hockey knowledge, it's pretty easy to understand... Like I said, conversation has stagnated

you keep on calling him a third liner yet he's paced 50+ for last 2 seasons. Seems like your the one who's undervaluing him.
He was 3rd liner on the leafs. On the sens he's become a good defensive player with 50 point potential.

And you keep on missing the point that both pageau/folgno were traded at the deadline. brown has term. he's just not a rental.

It's pretty basic but I think now everyone understands that "3rd liners" don't pace for 50+ pts. Even he should be able to understand despite limited understanding. So maybe it's just intellectual dishonesty or "scared" to lose an argument on the internet

 

[Xspyrit]

He hasn't paced 50+ points the last 2 seasons. He has in one of them.

2019-20 : 43 Pts in 71 GP : 49.66 pts per 82 GP
2020-21 : 35 Pts in 56 GP : 51.25 pts per 82 GP

So yeah, you're confirming intellectual dishonesty... thanks for wasting our time

Brown compares to a slightly lesser version of Toffoli. He returned a 2nd. I've said a 1st if you take back a comparable contract.

Toffoli now... Are you serious?

 

[Double Dion]

lol, again our conversation can't really go any farther. We can try if you want but it won't result in anything. I will keep posting for the benefit of people wanting to get informed on Connor Brown. Everything is written in the post but I was still editing so maybe you missed a bit of info

dZS% + QoT + QoC + which team they play for

Danault played with Tatar and Gallagher, 0.7 CF% rel despite less dZS%, better linemates, etc

And I mean, Danault is considered one of the best defensive players in the league...

Now look at Pageau, similar dZS% + QoT + QoC (although he had the luxury to play with Mark Stone) and his is - CF% rel 4.8 in Ottawa... while the team was MUCH better than during Brown's time in Ottawa

I also did NOT compare Brown with Danault and Pageau, I simply said these guys are also considered as "3rd liners" by plenty of fans. But it just doesn't work like that internally in pro hockey teams.

"he's 1.6% worse than the rest of his teammates" because he starts his shifts 2/3 of the time in the defensive zone (F/o, on the fly, etc) and his MISSION is to shut down the best hockey players in the world. Even with limited hockey knowledge, it's pretty easy to understand... Like I said, conversation has stagnated



It's pretty basic but I think now everyone understands that "3rd liners" don't pace for 50+ pts. Even he should be able to understand despite limited understanding. So maybe it's just intellectual dishonesty or "scared" to lose an argument on the internet

Again, I don't think you understand what corsi relative is. Read up on it. 4.6 is a good corsi relative. It has nothing to do with your team. Your team stats are used as the baseline.

I have no agenda here. You're trying to sell a 2 dollar bottle of coke for 5 bucks on marketplace. You use the logic that people pay 15 dollars for a beer at a stadium. It's flawed thinking with an agenda of pocketing 3 bucks extra.

 

[Double Dion]

2019-20 : 43 Pts in 71 GP : 49.66 pts per 82 GP
2020-21 : 35 Pts in 56 GP : 51.25 pts per 82 GP

So yeah, you're confirming intellectual dishonesty... thanks for wasting our time



Toffoli now... Are you serious?

You are way over your head, you should stop.

No, you posted he scored at a pace of 50+ points for 2 seasons when he hasn't. Who is being intellectually dishonest?

I'm pretty sure most people would value Toffoli higher than Brown. You clearly lack the ability to see outside your market. Is your second favorite team the Rangers by chance?

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Foligno brought size, toughness and a good playoff resume to a team that thought that those were missing ingredients. Does Brown bring size, toughness or a good playoff resume?

I hate threads like this where players I like get overvalued by their fanbases. It's like when Rags fans though 8OA wasn't enough for Buchnevich. I like Buchnevich and I like Brown, but you're overvaluing your player here. Good undersized 3rd liners don't bring back a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

“Impressive Playoff resume”
21 points in 51 playoff games is hardly impressive, never even made it past the second round.
“Undersized”
Connor Brown is 6’ - 185, hardly undersized.

Toffoli returned a second and a good prospect and was a rental.

Brown is NOT a rental and is on a bargain of a contract.

I think we’re seeing this year that Buchnevich should have gone for more than a second and a roster player. That hardly proves your argument. Quite the opposite really.

People were saying the same thing in 2019 when Ottawa was trading Pageau. We’ve heard it all before.

 

[Akrapovince]

“Impressive Playoff resume”
21 points in 51 playoff games is hardly impressive, never even made it past the second round.
“Undersized”
Connor Brown is 6’ - 185, hardly undersized.

Toffoli returned a second and a good prospect and was a rental.

Brown is NOT a rental and is on a bargain of a contract.

I think we’re seeing this year that Buchnevich should have gone for more than a second and a roster player. That hardly proves your argument. Quite the opposite really.

People were saying the same thing in 2019 when Ottawa was trading Pageau. We’ve heard it all before.

My favourite thing in the entire world is when people say you’re not able to use the Foligno return as a measuring stick but some people can use the Buch trade as a measuring stick…

Pretty clearly one team overpaid and one team underpaid. I’ll play along and say Brown being worth a first round pick is only “debatable”, GMs will pay that price if it means putting them over the top.

I’m looking at you Edmonton Oilers, fill your 2RW hole until Yamamoto can prove he can fill it himself more consistently.

Brown should return a first as a rental, first + as he is, first + prospect with 50% retention for 2 years. Keyword, he should. Just like Buch should’ve returned 1st + blue chip prospect/roster player.

 

[Xspyrit]

Again, I don't think you understand what corsi relative is. Read up on it. 4.6 is a good corsi relative. It has nothing to do with your team. Your team stats are used as the baseline.

Oh damn, how could you understand if I make mistakes?

My fault here

MINUS 4.8, pageau had - 4.8, not +4.6

Again, I perfectly know what corsi relative is, I explained it in post #54 (so we agreed here that you have to look at CF% rel and not just CF%)

No, you posted he scored at a pace of 50+ points for 2 seasons when he hasn't. Who is being intellectually dishonest?

Let me guess, 49.99 would also not be 50 pts?

I'm pretty sure most people would value Toffoli higher than Brown. You clearly lack the ability to see outside your market. Is your second favorite team the Rangers by chance?

Tyler Toffoli and Connor Brown are not comparable in any way, shape or form. Not the same type of player at all. That's why I was laughing. Let's compare Brown with a defenseman next!

I'm not saying Toffoli doesn't have value, he's probably returning a 1st as well as his contract is good value. His problem is that he's even slower than before and if he's not scoring, he's not contributing much.

My other favorite teams are Jets, Flames (I was a pretty big Kipper fan), Vegas

I live 15 mins away from Montreal downtown by the way. I know Montreal's market a lot more than Ottawa's. Bell Center used to be one of my biggest customers.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Brown could probably fetch a 1st if there is any retention or dead money coming back. Deep drafts this yr and next though, a 2nd+ something @full cap is probably ballpark.