Value of: Connor Brown to contender

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Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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He's not close to being as impactful as Coleman.

Having watched Brown for a number of years in Toronto through the good and the bad, I don't think Brown and Coleman share many attributes other than being toolsy productive players on teams looking for the future. The hope would be to plug him into a line and you get productivity and a little juice.
 

johnsic

Registered User
Nov 12, 2009
484
191
Caps: Connor Brown, Erik Brannstrom

Sens: 1st, Carl Hagelin and Alexander Alexeyev
 

stempniaksen

Registered User
Oct 12, 2008
11,166
4,490
Care to contribute something intellectual? Or is 'lol" the only word you are capable of using?

Seems light on value, maybe not lol worthy, but not what Sens fans would be looking for.

The idea of Eugene Melnyk eating half of that deal for 1.5 seasons when it's a pretty darn good deal in the first place seems rather unlikely and worth a chuckle.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,352
10,252
Montreal, Canada
I like Brown. But I wouldn't overpay for him. On a contending team he's a 3rd liner.

Connor Brown would play 3rd line minutes and put up 30 points on a good team.

Yanni Gourde, Phillip Danault and JG Pageau are known as "3rd liners" too, it doesn't make them less essential or diminishes their trade value. Pageau returned a 1st and a 2nd in 2020 and that's about Brown's value NEXT deadline

We're in 2021 and it's time to upgrade our views on what a 1st-2nd-3rd-4th line is... but there's a lot of "variables" in hockey so I can understand why it's taking time

He's not close to being as impactful as Coleman.

As usual, people talk without knowing. I don't think there's a sport where fans know as little as in hockey... And that is the reason why I have an already prepared response that I can just copy/paste called the "Connor Brown facts"!

Connor Brown is not "in the top-6", he's a match up forward. It leads to confusion this year because covid/injuries and lack of depht but you have to look at who Connor Brown plays with :

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

Yes Tim Stutzle (because he's young, inexperienced and not very good defensively, but also not many other options for the coach) but outside of that : Nick Paul, Chris Tierney, Alex Formenton, Shane Pinto. In 2019-20, he played with Pageau and Tierney a lot and last season basically with everybody. It's that kind of player who play big minutes because they are essential for a coach (like a Pageau or Danault). He doesn't need to be "in the top-6" to have a big role and big minutes. Look at his deployment.

2019-20 + 2020-21 facts :

- Among Brown's 19:17 TOI/GP in Ottawa, 2:45 were on the PK and only 1:32 on the PP. His overall dZS% has been 62.6% which is extremely high. Simply put, he is mostly used as a shutdown forward or on a matchup line.

- Despite this defensive usage, he has been 61st for Even Strenght Points among NHL players since 2019-20 (not including 2021-22 yet). Look at the names around him on that list, they aren't all as good overall :

NHL Stats

Facts summary :

- He has scored at a 24 goals/50 pts pace in Ottawa (127 GP)
- He was 2nd in takeaways last season (behind Mark Stone of course)
- He received Selke votes (17th)
- Total beast on the PK : routinely gets more scoring chances than the opposition
- used heavily in a defensive deployment (34.0 oZS% vs 66.0 dZS%) but still provides good offense

His speed, non-stop motor and flawless work ethic is a beautiful thing to watch. With only a 3.6 AAV for 2 more seasons... way too valuable for Ottawa and they love him a lot. Any team who has Brown should use him in a similar way that Ottawa has been

Care to contribute something intellectual? Or is 'lol" the only word you are capable of using?

Look at my post above. Let me know if it's intellectual enough for you

Your proposal was highly unrealistic and completely ignoring an existing market.
 
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Double Dion

Jets fan 28/06/2014
Feb 9, 2011
11,734
4,507
Replace “Coleman” with “Brown” and you have what Connor Brown is.

Seems like you have an agenda against Connor.
I actually like the player. He's not nearly as fast or nearly as good a checker as Coleman though. He's a better playmaker. Why would I have an agenda against him? He's not an Oilers player or a Rags fan.
 

Double Dion

Jets fan 28/06/2014
Feb 9, 2011
11,734
4,507
Yanni Gourde, Phillip Danault and JG Pageau are known as "3rd liners" too, it doesn't make them less essential or diminishes their trade value. Pageau returned a 1st and a 2nd in 2020 and that's about Brown's value NEXT deadline

We're in 2021 and it's time to upgrade our views on what a 1st-2nd-3rd-4th line is... but there's a lot of "variables" in hockey so I can understand why it's taking time



As usual, people talk without knowing. I don't think there's a sport where fans know as little as in hockey... And that is the reason why I have an already prepared response that I can just copy/paste called the "Connor Brown facts"!

Connor Brown is not "in the top-6", he's a match up forward. It leads to confusion this year because covid/injuries and lack of depht but you have to look at who Connor Brown plays with :

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

Yes Tim Stutzle (because he's young, inexperienced and not very good defensively, but also not many other options for the coach) but outside of that : Nick Paul, Chris Tierney, Alex Formenton, Shane Pinto. In 2019-20, he played with Pageau and Tierney a lot and last season basically with everybody. It's that kind of player who play big minutes because they are essential for a coach (like a Pageau or Danault). He doesn't need to be "in the top-6" to have a big role and big minutes. Look at his deployment.

2019-20 + 2020-21 facts :

- Among Brown's 19:17 TOI/GP in Ottawa, 2:45 were on the PK and only 1:32 on the PP. His overall dZS% has been 62.6% which is extremely high. Simply put, he is mostly used as a shutdown forward or on a matchup line.

- Despite this defensive usage, he has been 61st for Even Strenght Points among NHL players since 2019-20 (not including 2021-22 yet). Look at the names around him on that list, they aren't all as good overall :

NHL Stats

Facts summary :

- He has scored at a 24 goals/50 pts pace in Ottawa (127 GP)
- He was 2nd in takeaways last season (behind Mark Stone of course)
- He received Selke votes (17th)
- Total beast on the PK : routinely gets more scoring chances than the opposition
- used heavily in a defensive deployment (34.0 oZS% vs 66.0 dZS%) but still provides good offense

His speed, non-stop motor and flawless work ethic is a beautiful thing to watch. With only a 3.6 AAV for 2 more seasons... way too valuable for Ottawa and they love him a lot. Any team who has Brown should use him in a similar way that Ottawa has been



Look at my post above. Let me know if it's intellectual enough for you

Your proposal was highly unrealistic and completely ignoring an existing market.
The problem with your post is you are using 2nd line centers and comparing their value to a 3rd line winger. Calgary is a pretty average forward group in the league. Brown would be our 5th best winger. Any of the three centers you just named would be Ottawa's best overall center.
 

PoutineSp00nZ

Electricity is really just organized lightning.
Jul 21, 2009
20,171
5,818
Ottawa
The Senators are trying to build a competitive roster going into next season.

Trading Brown for futures doesn't help them, especially when he's in his prime and locked up cheap for 2 years.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,352
10,252
Montreal, Canada
The problem with your post is you are using 2nd line centers and comparing their value to a 3rd line winger. Calgary is a pretty average forward group in the league. Brown would be our 5th best winger. Any of the three centers you just named would be Ottawa's best overall center.

There would be a lot to explain and I don't know what you already know or not but Connor Brown is a "3rd liner" because he doesn't PP much and it's also not his game. He is a DEFENSIVE FORWARD who PKs and produces at Even Strenght

He scores at a 25 goals/50 pts pace while being deployed 2/3 of the time in the defensive zone matching against other teams top forwards...

Click on the link I have provided (at least the 2nd one) and compare with the names around. Connor Brown produces as much at ES as some of these 1st/2nd liners

Brown is also far from being the best Sens winger. Batherson, Tkachuk and Stutzle are all better offensively even though Stutzle is still quite raw and the other two are just 23 and 22 y/o

We're talking about a young rebuilding team here. Soon there's going to be another guy like Formenton, Greig, Sokolov or Jarventie who will be a better winger than Brown. It doesn't change the fact that this type of player is very useful and impactful. Defensive forwards who excel on the PK and still provide good scoring are very very valuable. Add the fact that he only makes 3.6 AAV and he's one of the best impact per $ player in the league.

Brown is a good defensive player. Coleman is arguably the best defensive wing in the entire NHL.

Where are the Selke votes? Brown was voted 17th last season (at 27 y/o), Coleman was voted 22nd the year before (at 28 y/o)

Also, since 2019-20 :

Coleman : 69 Pts (37 goals) in 141 GP
Brown : 88 Pts (41 goals) in 142 GP

Brown produces more while being deployed even more in the D zone and on a rebuilding team vs the Cup champs. Put Connor Brown on the Lightning and he would be seen as a ridiculously good 2-way forward

Any of the three centers you just named would be Ottawa's best overall center.

Debatable. At this very moment yes but it's just a matter of weeks/months, maybe a year or two. Josh Norris is only 22 y/o and Shane Pinto just turned 21 y/o 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately Pinto hasn't really played this season because of injuries and Norris is like every young player on the Sens, left to himself as there is no quality veteran outside of Connor Brown.
 
Last edited:

SteveCangialosi123

Registered User
Feb 17, 2012
28,956
51,244
NJ
Where are the Selke votes? Brown was voted 17th last season (at 27 y/o), Coleman was voted 22nd the year before (at 28 y/o)

Also, since 2019-20 :

Coleman : 69 Pts (37 goals) in 141 GP
Brown : 88 Pts (41 goals) in 142 GP
Voting for awards means zero, offensive production is irrelevant to what I said.
 

Double Dion

Jets fan 28/06/2014
Feb 9, 2011
11,734
4,507
There would be a lot to explain and I don't know what you already know or not but Connor Brown is a "3rd liner" because he doesn't PP much and it's also not his game. He is a DEFENSIVE FORWARD who PKs and produces at Even Strenght

He scores at a 25 goals/50 pts pace while being deployed 2/3 of the time in the defensive zone matching against other teams top forwards...

Click on the link I have provided (at least the 2nd one) and compare with the names around. Connor Brown produces as much at ES as some of these 1st/2nd liners

Brown is also far from being the best Sens winger. Batherson, Tkachuk and Stutzle are all better offensively even though Stutzle is still quite raw and the other two are just 23 and 22 y/o

We're talking about a young rebuilding team here. Soon there's going to be another guy like Formenton, Greig, Sokolov or Jarventie who will be a better winger than Brown. It doesn't change the fact that this type of player is very useful and impactful. Defensive forwards who excel on the PK and still provide good scoring are very very valuable. Add the fact that he only makes 3.6 AAV and he's one of the best impact per $ player in the league.



Where are the Selke votes? Brown was voted 17th last season (at 27 y/o), Coleman was voted 22nd the year before (at 28 y/o)

Also, since 2019-20 :

Coleman : 69 Pts (37 goals) in 141 GP
Brown : 88 Pts (41 goals) in 142 GP

Brown produces more while being deployed even more in the D zone and on a rebuilding team vs the Cup champs. Put Connor Brown on the Lightning and he would be seen as a ridiculously good 2-way forward



Debatable. At this very moment yes but it's just a matter of weeks/months, maybe a year or two. Josh Norris is only 22 y/o and Shane Pinto just turned 21 y/o 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately Pinto hasn't really played this season because of injuries and Norris is like every young player on the Sens, left to himself as there is no quality veteran outside of Connor Brown.
There's a lot of falsehoods in your statement. Brown hasn't had a positive relative corsi in 5 seasons. He's a decent defensive player, but he's definitely not much above average in that regard. Brown was 17th in Selke votes, but most definitely didn't deserve to be. Yes he's deployed defensively but it's more of a product of the Sens not having many good defensive players. In Calgary he'd be below average defensively in our forward group, even though I'd say he is above average overall. Let's not pretend we are talking Mangiapane here. We most definitely aren't.
 

Double Dion

Jets fan 28/06/2014
Feb 9, 2011
11,734
4,507
They’re similar players. Simple as that.
If you want to go to the polls section and fight for who’s better, go ahead and be Colemans knight in shining armour.
This thread isn’t about Coleman, its about Brown. Move on lmao
They really aren't similar at all. Coleman gives up less than half the high danger chances per minute. He also is about 15% higher in corsi. They aren't remotely comparable defensively. Brown is a more skilled offensive generator. Coleman is a much better checker in every zone.
 

PoutineSp00nZ

Electricity is really just organized lightning.
Jul 21, 2009
20,171
5,818
Ottawa
There's a lot of falsehoods in your statement. Brown hasn't had a positive relative corsi in 5 seasons. He's a decent defensive player, but he's definitely not much above average in that regard. Brown was 17th in Selke votes, but most definitely didn't deserve to be. Yes he's deployed defensively but it's more of a product of the Sens not having many good defensive players. In Calgary he'd be below average defensively in our forward group, even though I'd say he is above average overall. Let's not pretend we are talking Mangiapane here. We most definitely aren't.

On the flip side you could say that his defensive stats would be even better if he were playing with better players.

All these statistics can be bent to prove whatever point someone is trying to make.
 

Double Dion

Jets fan 28/06/2014
Feb 9, 2011
11,734
4,507
On the flip side you could say that his defensive stats would be even better if he were playing with better players.

All these statistics can be bent to prove whatever point someone is trying to make.
Corsi is corsi. High danger stats are high danger stats. Opinions are bent, warped and twisted. Numbers are real and tangible.

I like Brown. He's a good 3rd liner who can play on our 2nd line if we lose one of our top 4 wingers. Comparing him defensively to players like Coleman, Danault and Pageau is a bit ridiculous though. Expecting a 2nd line center return for a good 3rd line winger is also ridiculous. Brown would return a 1st if you take cap back. He won't return the 1st, 2nd and 3rd some here are suggesting.
 

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