Connor Bedard or Jack Hughes?

[The Gr8 Dane]

so what people are expecting him to be a 120 point player right out the gate? lol

I always figured he was a step below McDavid as a prospect but I guess people are putting him up there already

 

[Regal]

Bedard.
I don’t get the boat vs mystery box references. Bedard has been touted as the next great one for a while now. You take those players every single time.

The mystery box is always a poor reference. There’s always some guess work with prospects, sure, and people can certainly fall victim to the hype rather than appreciating what’s in front of them, but we still know what Bedard is, dude’s been scouted for years.

 

[blundluntman]

so what people are expecting him to be a 120 point player right out the gate? lol

I think people are saying it’ll be disappointing if around 100 points is his peak. I personally think he has the potential to score 130

 

[VanillaCoke]

Hughes, cmon.
Bedard hype train might be getting a little too fast.

 

[TLEH]

Peperidge farm remembers when Lafrenière was the closest thing to "generational".

Not even the same stratosphere of prospect.

 

[deleted user]

Not even the same stratosphere of prospect.

Yeah, that dude comparing them is off his rocker.

 

[Regal]

Hughes is one of the few players that would give me pause when it comes to Bedard. Bedard does have a bit more potential, but Hughes is already so good, still really young, and on a steal of a contract. If Bedard becomes a 60 goal, 120 point player and signs for 13-14 mil, while Hughes is a 45-110 guy for 8, it’s hard not to take Hughes. And while watching Bedard grow as a home town kid would be fun, it’s clear the Canucks aren’t trying to rebuild. If they can run Pettersson and Hughes down the middle, with the other Hughes on the back end, that would be a pretty strong base. Of course they’d also have to keep hemorrhaging picks to make the cap room.

 

[Voight]

Peperidge farm remembers when Lafrenière was the closest thing to "generational".

People dud hype him top quite a bit but most reasonable people never saw him as a generational prospect or all that close. The problem was he played for the same junior team as Sid, and won back to back CHL POY (like Sid did) so people just started making assumptions.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

The Hughes contract does it for me, I’ll take him.

 

[TLEH]

In 2014-2015 Seguin was 22 years old and 7th in the league in scoring.

In 2022-2023 Hughes was 22 years old and 12th in the league in scoring.

Now McDavid kind of blew away even the most amazing projections, but you not taking Seguin over McDavid. Just like you're not taking Hughes over Bedard.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I always figured he was a step below McDavid as a prospect but I guess people are putting him up there already

Im not sure where to properly put him but I just think hes not going to do as well as people are expecting. and Im not sure if he will ever reach the heights people are thinking. I do think he will be an extremely good player, but I wouldnt risk that if Jack Hughes as he is right now was available.

 

[MasterofGrond]

meh, don't agree with the mystery box analogy. If Hughes is a boat, he's a very fine speed boat no doubt about it. And anyone would be happy with that level of boat. But, Bedard is projected to possibly be the type of Super Yacht usually reserved for Russian oligarchs and middle east oil barons.

That analogy greatly overstates the average difference in player value, unless he's literally as good as McDavid, a guy currently pacing to comfortably be considered a top 5 player of all time.

If he's merely a Drai, or a MacKinnon, or a Matthews (for my money, the next 3 best forwards in the league, in some order), how much more valuable is that than Hughes, today? (Ignoring the fact that at age 22, Hughes may still get better).

What percentage of the time does he have to become nearly as good as McDavid to justify the risk he's worse or significantly worse than Hughes and what percentage of the time do you realistically believe he's as good as McDavid?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

That analogy greatly overstates the average difference in player value, unless he's literally as good as McDavid, a guy currently pacing to comfortably be considered a top 5 player of all time.

If he's merely a Drai, or a McKinnon, or a Matthews (for my money, the next 3 best forwards in the league, in some order), how much more valuable is that than Hughes, today? (Ignoring the fact that at age 22, Hughes may still get better).

What percentage of the time does he have to become nearly as good as McDavid to justify the risk he's worse or significantly worse than Hughes and what percentage of the time do you realistically believe he's as good as McDavid?

The way people are talking about him he needs to be the second best forward in the world or he's a bust lol. That's nonsense

 

[MasterofGrond]

In 2014-2015 Seguin was 22 years old and 7th in the league in scoring.

In 2022-2023 Hughes was 22 years old and 12th in the league in scoring.

Now McDavid kind of blew away even the most amazing projections, but you not taking Seguin over McDavid. Just like you're not taking Hughes over Bedard.

Sure that comparison is easy in hindsight, because things went the way they did. McDavid somehow actually exceeded the sky high expectations around him and Seguin, well, has had this back end of his career.

But just because that's how it went down in one case, doesn't make that the most likely outcome.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

In 2014-2015 Seguin was 22 years old and 7th in the league in scoring.

In 2022-2023 Hughes was 22 years old and 12th in the league in scoring.

Now McDavid kind of blew away even the most amazing projections, but you not taking Seguin over McDavid. Just like you're not taking Hughes over Bedard.

what are u thinking about? Seguin has never even put up a 90 point season. Hughes is 22 years old and just had 43 goals and 99 points in 78 games. and is also making 8m long term.
your comparison isn't close at all and imo it's more risky to pass on Hughes right now for Bedard.

okay lets say by the end of Bedard's ELC he's a 100 point player. how much more do you think he will be making over Jack Hughes at 8? how many more points will all those extra millions get you over Hughes?

I get Bedard has more potential but there's no guarantee he even becomes better than Hughes

Hughes at 8m all day every day

 

[bigdog16]

Yeah I take Hughes here quite easily. Shiny new toy syndrome in full effect here on HFboards

 

[TLEH]

what are u thinking about? Seguin has never even put up a 90 point season. Hughes is 22 years old and just had 43 goals and 99 points in 78 games. and is also making 8m long term.
your comparison isn't close at all and imo it's more risky to pass on Hughes right now for Bedard.

okay lets say by the end of Bedard's ELC he's a 100 point player. how much more do you think he will be making over Jack Hughes at 8? how many more points will all those extra millions get you over Hughes?

I get Bedard has more potential but there's no guarantee he even becomes better than Hughes

Hughes at 8m all day every day

In 2014-2015 there were zero 90 point players.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

people said the same thing in the 2004 Rick Nash vs Sidney Crosby thread.

Sometimes a prospect is so good you take the risk

Want a close parallel?

Going into the 2005-2006 regular season, who do you take....rookie prospect Alex Ovechkin, or 22yr old estbalished Kovalchuk, former #1 overall?

I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to go with the safer choice of the established player, Hughes. He looks very promising and on-pace for a great career. And there's always a risk someone like Bedard could self-implode and get nowhere near expectations. But he's still very close to a Crosby/McDavid tier prospect - I'd say there's a ~90% chance at least he surpasses Hughes career-wise, and a ~50% chance minimum that he does so by a very big gap.

I remember the Nash vs Crosby thread from way back being similar

 

[Arthur Morgan]

In 2014-2015 there were zero 90 point players.

so what? right now Hughes put up 99 points in 78 games and Seguin back in 2014-15 wasnt remotely close to Hughes

yeah I would take Bedard or McDavid as a prospect over Seguin of 2014-15 too. but I dunno if I would be able to let go of Hughes for McDavid or Bedard as prospects coming into the league for their first season if Hughes is currently a 100(99point basically there) player making only 8m long term

 

[TLEH]

so what? right now Hughes put up 99 points in 78 games and Seguin back in 2014-15 wasnt remotely close to Hughes

yeah I would take Bedard or McDavid as a prospect over Seguin of 2014-15 too. but I dunno if I would be able to let go of Hughes for McDavid or Bedard as prospects coming into the league for their first season if Hughes is currently a 100(99point basically there) player making only 8m long term

The fact that you're not understanding that relative league scoring is more relevant in this conversation, rather than pure scoring numbers, is all I need to know. We don't need to continue this discussion on Seguin.

Hughes could remain better than Bedard. Bedard could greatly surpass Hughes. Hughes could continue to get better.

All are outcomes that are plausible. I know which one I am betting on. Only time will tell.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

people said the same thing in the 2004 Rick Nash vs Sidney Crosby thread.

Sometimes a prospect is so good you take the risk


I remember the Nash vs Crosby thread from way back being similar

Nash wasn't already pretty much a 100 point player at that time so I think anyone would take that chance

I mean really realistically how many more points are people expecting Bedard to put up over Jack Hughes?

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

not many people i would take over Jack Hughes but Bedard is one of them kid is not only one of the most talented players in the world already but he also has the mentality to want it also

 

[Happyhary9]

Peperidge farm remembers when Lafrenière was the closest thing to "generational".

This is becoming the worst take in every Bedard thread. Laf was only considered "generational" by a few random posters on HF (which happens every year). Nit a single actual NHL scout labeled Laf generational, while almost every NHL scout thinks Bedard is a "generational" prospect. Massive frigging difference.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The fact that you're not understanding that relative league scoring is more relevant in this conversation, rather than pure scoring numbers, is all I need to know. We don't need to continue this discussion.

Seguin was ppg by 6 points that season
Hughes was ppg by 21 points last season.
even if league scoring was down how much does Seguin close the gap of those 15?

Seguin was never what Jack Hughes is now.

How many more points are you expecting Bedard to outscore Hughes by? seems very risky to give up a 99 point player about to enter their prime signed to a very very nice team friendly deal for a gamble.

 

[TLEH]

Seguin was ppg by 6 points that season
Hughes was ppg by 21 points last season.
even if league scoring was down how much does Seguin close the gap of those 15?

Seguin was never what Jack Hughes is now.

How many more points are you expecting Bedard to outscore Hughes by? seems very risky to give up a 99 point player about to enter their prime signed to a very very nice team friendly deal for a gamble.

You're right. Seguin finished 4th in scoring as a 21 year old and 7th in scoring as a 22 year old. Actually better than Hughes has done at the same age.

I think by year 2 Bedard puts up 110.