Connor Bedard 2022/2023 season comparing to other great juniors seasons

[JackSlater]

I think you're right for the most part, but was Brian Campbell really on the radar for international play at this time? This particular season he was just a power play specialist (17 ESP) who was playing less than 18 minutes per game on buffalo.

Brian Campbell is literally just a good skating defenceman on a team that desperately needed puck movement. With Niedermayer out they needed probably two other puck movers - Boyle rotting on the taxi squad is the first, then.... whoever else.

 

[Crosby2010]

Brian Campbell is literally just a good skating defenceman on a team that desperately needed puck movement. With Niedermayer out they needed probably two other puck movers - Boyle rotting on the taxi squad is the first, then.... whoever else.

Good question, because other than Boyle who else was missing on defense? Niedermayer is hurt. Pronger and Blake do have some offense but aren't the skating defensemen to do this. Pronger made nice breakout passes, Blake in his younger days could come in with a great shot and had good offensive instincts but I wouldn't call either one of them end to end rushers.

This left McCabe who was just there because he was killing it on the power play. Regehr and Foote are stay at home guys anyway. Redden was alright, but certainly not a rusher that you need that can replace Niedermayer. Bouwmeester certainly had the speed but he just never lived up to the hype of being able to rush the puck at an elite level at the NHL level.

Yeah, they needed Boyle there. He's your best replacement for Niedermayer on that big ice. Jovanovski as well was injured but while he had his moments offensively he wasn't a classic rusher. It's Boyle at that point. And even then it's still pretty early on in his good years.

To tell you the truth though, on paper that Canadian defense still should have gotten the job done. They had good defensemen. Even missing Niedermayer and his rushing the puck skill was a blow sure, but they still should have had more than enough to make up for it.

 

[JackSlater]

Good question, because other than Boyle who else was missing on defense? Niedermayer is hurt. Pronger and Blake do have some offense but aren't the skating defensemen to do this. Pronger made nice breakout passes, Blake in his younger days could come in with a great shot and had good offensive instincts but I wouldn't call either one of them end to end rushers.

This left McCabe who was just there because he was killing it on the power play. Regehr and Foote are stay at home guys anyway. Redden was alright, but certainly not a rusher that you need that can replace Niedermayer. Bouwmeester certainly had the speed but he just never lived up to the hype of being able to rush the puck at an elite level at the NHL level.

Yeah, they needed Boyle there. He's your best replacement for Niedermayer on that big ice. Jovanovski as well was injured but while he had his moments offensively he wasn't a classic rusher. It's Boyle at that point. And even then it's still pretty early on in his good years.

To tell you the truth though, on paper that Canadian defense still should have gotten the job done. They had good defensemen. Even missing Niedermayer and his rushing the puck skill was a blow sure, but they still should have had more than enough to make up for it.

Canada was in a bad transition period on defence at the time, especially for a tournament on the bigger ice. I would call each of McCabe, Blake, and Foote a mistake. Niedermayer was not available, and that was a huge loss. Pronger was less than 100% but he was playable. Jovanovski was injured but I do not think that mattered. Bring in Boyle, bring in Campbell. Keep Blake if there is a desire for more leadership in the seventh spot. I'd even consider Dan Hamhuis in retrospect given the situation at the time and that Hamhuis was quietly very good internationally.

 

[Crosby2010]

Canada was in a bad transition period on defence at the time, especially for a tournament on the bigger ice. I would call each of McCabe, Blake, and Foote a mistake. Niedermayer was not available, and that was a huge loss. Pronger was less than 100% but he was playable. Jovanovski was injured but I do not think that mattered. Bring in Boyle, bring in Campbell. Keep Blake if there is a desire for more leadership in the seventh spot. I'd even consider Dan Hamhuis in retrospect given the situation at the time and that Hamhuis was quietly very good internationally.

Absolutely Boyle. That was a mistake leaving him on the outside. He was great in 2010.

I don't know about Hamhuis and Campbell though. There was just so little hockey Hamhuis had played at that time, he wouldn't have been on the radar. In 2014 he was a nice steady defenseman in Babcock's system on that Olympic team, he fit in there, but he was a wily vet by then. I doubt playing 1.5 years of NHL hockey by the 2006 Olympics that he was even thought of. Campbell was older but was really only having his first decent season in 2006. I can remember Scott Hannan on the 2004 World Cup team after all of those injuries on defense and he was the epitome of "steady" as well. Maybe he was a consideration? I don't know. Either way, you're right, it was a weird transition time for Team Canada on defense. Maybe a bit like what we have now. Some older guys past their prime but some young ones coming up who will be good in 4-5 years.

 

[JianYang]

I have this perception that it's historically difficult to pile up points in the WHL than the other two leagues.

I'm not sure if it a valid perception, but perhaps something to keep in mind when comparing his stats to the other leagues across Canada.

 

[Boxscore]

In terms of hype, no Bedard doesn't seem to be there.

Lindros hype was unreal especially benefiting from the refusing to play for Quebec that dragged it out for another year and then playing in the Canada Cup. Crosby hype was pretty close to that as well, had the benefits of amplification of the internet and following a NHL lockout where more hockey attention than usual was focused on juniors.

Others can probably comment more informedly on Lemieux.

The Lindros hype was the biggest I've ever seen. Not only was his production high-end but his size, strength and physicality made him a man-child in the mold of Gordie Howe. He was larger than life, as was the hype surrounding him. I think the speculation that he would not play in Quebec magnified his mystique.

Mario was hyped a ton as well. I believe the Nordiques offered all the Stastnys plus to PIT for that pick.

I also think Crosby and McDavid were more hyped than Bedard.

 

[daver]

The Lindros hype was the biggest I've ever seen. Not only was his production high-end but his size, strength and physicality made him a man-child in the mold of Gordie Howe. He was larger than life, as was the hype surrounding him. I think the speculation that he would not play in Quebec magnified his mystique.

Mario was hyped a ton as well. I believe the Nordiques offered all the Stastnys plus to PIT for that pick.

I also think Crosby and McDavid were more hyped than Bedard.

Bedard seems like a rich man's Kane with a generational shot. He is somewhere between Kane and Crosby in physicality; so not a strength but not a weakness. I think his playmaking ability is being underrated due to his goalscoring.

I think he can put up generational numbers but moreso on a loaded line than on his own like McDavid, or with any quality of linemates like Crosby. He seems to have that "rise to the occasion" factor too.

 

[wetcoast]

I have this perception that it's historically difficult to pile up points in the WHL than the other two leagues.

I'm not sure if it a valid perception, but perhaps something to keep in mind when comparing his stats to the other leagues across Canada.

Depends on the year but historically the Q was easier to score in even if it isn't today anymore.

 

[JUSTGIROUXIT]

Really interesting stuff. Obviously need to take adjusted stats with a grain of salt at the best of times, and throw in the wildness of the the CHL compared to the NHL too, but the correlation between four of the Top 5 and their NHL careers makes sense.

- Strength of team makes a huge difference for a player like Drouin.

- Surprised Lindros isn't higher as the I thought given the gap between him and the next best 10/20 scorers was close to McDavid level. Need to take a closer look at this.

- I totally forgot that Wayne's OHL season in 77/78 was his age 16 season. How would that season line up on this list?* I suspect pretty high. I would also be curious where Crosby's 16 year old season lines up too.*


* I appreciate the work you put into this. I have wasted, I mean spent usefully, many hours calculating these types of stats. I do not want to presume that you can calculate these at request.

Drouin was unbelievable in the Q - He would have put up those numbers on any team.

 

[bobbyking]

OK, here are the best %'s ahead of the avg. PPGs of the other Top Ten scorers:

Mario - PPG of 4.02 was 99% better (2,02)

Crosby (age 17) - PPG of 2.71 was 87% better (1.45)

Wayne (age 16) - PPG of 2.89 was 82% better (1.59)*

Bedard - PPG of 2.56 is 73% better (1.48)

Crosby (age 16) - PPG of 2.29 was 56% better (1.47)

McDavid - PPG of 2.55 was 53% better (1.67)

Lindros - PPG of 2.61 was 38% better (1.89)

Kane - PPG of 2.50 was 32% better (1.84)

Mario (age 16) - PPG of 2.79 was 25% better (2.23)**


* removed Bobby Smith as an outlier as he would have playing the NHL if allowed

** removed Lafontaine as an outlier


COMMENT

Not surprised to see Mario move up

No surprise to see Wayne at age 16

Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario as a prospect than he was to any other prospect

Bedard's looking very impressive, moreso given his goalscoring dominance

No surprise to see Lindros higher than Kane

Mario 99 percent dear god