Speaking of Bedard, he is a cousin of 15 year old Gavin Mckenna, who is a hockey prodigy in his own right.
How far did they live? I mean, did they play some hockey together?
Speaking of Bedard, he is a cousin of 15 year old Gavin Mckenna, who is a hockey prodigy in his own right.
How far did they live? I mean, did they play some hockey together?
How far did they live? I mean, did they play some hockey together?
While true, we have yet to see someone in that stratosphere of a prospect not become a Crosby-Lemieux-McDavid nhl talent, but it will happen one day has anything possible tend to always end up happening if you give it enough time. And there an alternate world easy to imagine where Lafleur do not achieve to ever bloom out.I think it's fair to have doubts for any prospect and easy to set expectations too high.
While true, we have yet to see someone in that stratosphere of a prospect not become a Crosby-Lemieux-McDavid nhl talent, but it will happen one day has anything possible tend to always end up happening if you give it enough time. And there an alternate world easy to imagine where Lafleur do not achieve to ever bloom out.
But Daigle did not make team canada has a 16 years old and scored 0 goal has a 17, only 2 has a 19 years old.
Daigle led his teams by 6 pts his draft years, Connor led his team by 31 pts during his draft -1 year, it is a completely different tier.
Would I be in a deciding chair having a decision to make (possibility to trade to get more lottery pick and what not), I would not put too much doubt on Bedard.
I think one thing that happen is that many prospects get a lot of the same cannot miss treatment when they were not at that level.
This thread makes me wonder... why wasn’t Pat Lafontaine drafted first overall in 1983? And perhaps more intriguing, why was he drafted behind Sylvain Turgeon despite having a substantially better year in the same league?
Are you including last night's four goal game?From a goalscoring standpoint, he is even more of a standout:
His GPG is 70% better than the avg. GPG of the next best five goalscorers in the W this season.
Other notables:
Mario (83/84) - 94% better
Crosby (04/05) - 66% better
Lafontaine (82/83) - 49% better
Lindros (90/91) - 39% better
McDavid (14/15) - 29% better
Gretzky's D-1 year in 77-78 would be the 2nd best pre-draft year ever, though it's before the scope of my study. I started when the draft age changed in the 79 draft. Even still, this is the year before, so there's no reason it wouldn't count.Really interesting stuff. Obviously need to take adjusted stats with a grain of salt at the best of times, and throw in the wildness of the the CHL compared to the NHL too, but the correlation between four of the Top 5 and their NHL careers makes sense.
- Strength of team makes a huge difference for a player like Drouin.
- Surprised Lindros isn't higher as the I thought given the gap between him and the next best 10/20 scorers was close to McDavid level. Need to take a closer look at this.
- I totally forgot that Wayne's OHL season in 77/78 was his age 16 season. How would that season line up on this list?* I suspect pretty high. I would also be curious where Crosby's 16 year old season lines up too.*
* I appreciate the work you put into this. I have wasted, I mean spent usefully, many hours calculating these types of stats. I do not want to presume that you can calculate these at request.
Crosby | Q | 03-04 | 59 | 135 | 2.288136 | 3.36 | 2.72 |
Gretzky | O | `77-78 | 63 | 182 | 2.888889 | 4.49 | 2.57 |
Tavares | O | `07-08 | 59 | 118 | 2 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
Lemieux | Q | 82-83 | 66 | 184 | 2.787879 | 5.4 | 2.07 |
McDavid | O | `13-14 | 56 | 99 | 1.767857 | 3.55 | 1.99 |
Bedard | W | `21-22 | 62 | 100 | 1.612903 | 3.37 | 1.91 |
How about Tavares D-2 when he scored 70? Where would that rank among these?Gretzky's D-1 year in 77-78 would be the 2nd best pre-draft year ever, though it's before the scope of my study. I started when the draft age changed in the 79 draft. Even still, this is the year before, so there's no reason it wouldn't count.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]03-04[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]2.288136[/TD]
[TD]3.36[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gretzky[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`77-78[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[TD]182[/TD]
[TD]2.888889[/TD]
[TD]4.49[/TD]
[TD]2.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tavares[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`07-08[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3.45[/TD]
[TD]2.32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]184[/TD]
[TD]2.787879[/TD]
[TD]5.4[/TD]
[TD]2.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McDavid[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`13-14[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]99[/TD]
[TD]1.767857[/TD]
[TD]3.55[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`21-22[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]1.612903[/TD]
[TD]3.37[/TD]
[TD]1.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Crosby and Gretzky's D-1 years would still be the 5th and 6th best ever, if they were a full year older when they achieved those results.
How about Tavares D-2 when he scored 70? Where would that rank among these?
Bedard | W | `20-21 | 15 | 28 | 1.866667 | 3.33 | 2.24 |
Tavares | O | `06-07 | 67 | 134 | 2 | 3.73 | 2.14 |
Lemieux | Q | 81-82 | 64 | 96 | 1.5 | 4.92 | 1.22 |
These are the only D-2 numbers I have compiled at this time, they are by no means meant to be the three best that have occurred:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`20-21[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]1.866667[/TD]
[TD]3.33[/TD]
[TD]2.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tavares[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3.73[/TD]
[TD]2.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]81-82[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]96[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]4.92[/TD]
[TD]1.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Tavares is a really weird case. Considering the size of Bedard's sample, we must consider JT's D-2 season to be the best ever, probably by a good, wide margin. Gretzky and Crosby don't have one, McDavid's would only be about as good as Mario's, and so on. But then in D-1, he barely progresses, to 2.32. Then, in a nearly unprecedented occurrence, he regresses to just 2.17 in his draft year. And his career has been more befitting a player in that range, as opposed to one who was at those other levels at 15 & 16. And probably for 6 years or so after the draft, he was just a good 1OA pick, the word "generational" had probably not been used since 2008 . And by now, he's the clear 2nd best player from his own draft.
In 2006 and 2007 I was telling my Leafs fans friends, this is when we accept we are a bad team and need to bottom out. Start now so we can get this Tavares kid. He's gonna be one of the greatest players of all-time. And in 2006 and 2007.... the evidence of that was firmly on my side! 17 years later, he's just a borderline HOF case.
Why is Lindros #1?If we are going since Lemieux in 1984 then I think you can argue Bedard is right up there as #2 since then. Lindros being #1 since Lemieux. All three of Crosby, McDavid and Bedard are very close in terms of their draft year.
Why is Lindros #1?
Subjectively based on assessing the hype, one could make the case. But otherwise, the numbers don't agree
If had to pick, it would be Lindros. The hype for sure, but also the dominant World Junior. The x-factor is the insane combination of physical play and skill never seen before. I don't think since either. 149 points in 57 games and a guy who terrified his opponents in other ways. I am guessing if you had Lindros in his draft year and Bedard in his draft year and could pick one that most coaches pick Lindros.
Why is Lindros #1?
Subjectively based on assessing the hype, one could make the case. But otherwise, the numbers don't agree
There was a story from former Slovak national team coach Jozef Golonka about World Cup 1996:
One Slovak player should go to ice, where was also Lindros. He turned afraid to coach with words: "But there is Lindros!"...
But maybe I am missing something with people saying Lindros' offense wasn't similar to the rest. I think it was:
Right you are. In case anyone is curious, here are the 35 that came out over 2.0. As you can see, there's a very high correlation between placing very high on this list and scoring at a generational level in the NHL, but it doesn't follow that those just below them are NHL superstars.
After the top-4, the next 16 have 0 generational, 3 superstars, 3 stars, 2 very good player (incl. 1 who should be), 5 run-of-the-mill NHL players, and 2 busts.
The next 15 have 0 generational 3, superstars, 3 stars, 4 very good players (incl. 1 who should be), 2 run-of-the-mill NHLers, and 3 busts,
The superstar-or-better players on this list are 1st, 2nd, (3rd), 4th, 5th, 13th, 15th, 21st, 33rd and 35th.
Run-of-the-mill and busts can be found at 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There's no pattern to be found.
Top-5 on the list appear sure of success. After that, nearly anything can still happen.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`04-05[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]2.709677[/TD]
[TD]3.19[/TD]
[TD]3.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]83-84[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]282[/TD]
[TD]4.028571[/TD]
[TD]5.01[/TD]
[TD]3.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`22-23[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD]2.581395[/TD]
[TD]3.43[/TD]
[TD]3.01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McDavid[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]2.553191[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[TD]2.92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kane[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.73[/TD]
[TD]2.68[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafreniere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]112[/TD]
[TD]2.153846[/TD]
[TD]3.46[/TD]
[TD]2.49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spezza[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]2.071429[/TD]
[TD]3.33[/TD]
[TD]2.49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafontaine[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]234[/TD]
[TD]3.342857[/TD]
[TD]5.4[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drouin[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`12-13[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]2.142857[/TD]
[TD]3.49[/TD]
[TD]2.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Briere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]95-96[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]2.432836[/TD]
[TD]4.02[/TD]
[TD]2.42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gagner[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]2.226415[/TD]
[TD]3.73[/TD]
[TD]2.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Daigle[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]92-93[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]2.584906[/TD]
[TD]4.38[/TD]
[TD]2.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lindros[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]90-91[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]2.614035[/TD]
[TD]4.47[/TD]
[TD]2.34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bouchard[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`01-02[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]2.028986[/TD]
[TD]3.49[/TD]
[TD]2.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marner[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[TD]2.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brendl[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]98-99[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]1.970588[/TD]
[TD]3.51[/TD]
[TD]2.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rossi[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]2.142857[/TD]
[TD]3.86[/TD]
[TD]2.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tkachuk[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`15-16[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]1.877193[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]2.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D.Strome[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]1.897059[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[TD]2.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tavares[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`08-09[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]1.857143[/TD]
[TD]3.43[/TD]
[TD]2.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hawerchuk[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]80-81[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]183[/TD]
[TD]2.541667[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[TD]2.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hall[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]09-`10[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]1.859649[/TD]
[TD]3.48[/TD]
[TD]2.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Abid[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]97-98[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]1.985294[/TD]
[TD]3.72[/TD]
[TD]2.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lecavalier[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]97-98[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]1.982759[/TD]
[TD]3.72[/TD]
[TD]2.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]94-95[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]2.064516[/TD]
[TD]3.92[/TD]
[TD]2.11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Petan[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`12-13[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]1.690141[/TD]
[TD]3.21[/TD]
[TD]2.11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reinhart[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`13-14[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]1.75[/TD]
[TD]3.34[/TD]
[TD]2.10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M.Savard[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]94-95[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]2.106061[/TD]
[TD]4.04[/TD]
[TD]2.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wellwood[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]1.735294[/TD]
[TD]3.33[/TD]
[TD]2.08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Derkatch[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]2.671642[/TD]
[TD]5.16[/TD]
[TD]2.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jarvis[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[TD]1.689655[/TD]
[TD]3.27[/TD]
[TD]2.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.Turgeon[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]86-87[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]2.655172[/TD]
[TD]5.14[/TD]
[TD]2.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thornton[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]96-97[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]2.067797[/TD]
[TD]4.01[/TD]
[TD]2.06[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brown[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]85-86[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]2.507246[/TD]
[TD]4.97[/TD]
[TD]2.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`07-08[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]1.721311[/TD]
[TD]3.45[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
That's right, you are, The OHL that Lindros played in was 27%, 30% and 40% higher scoring than the leagues that McDavid, Bedard and Crosby played in.
He still has the 13th highest scoring draft year since 1980:
I find Bedard much less hyped than McDavid and Crosby (also Lindros) were. His statistics measure up decently and his WJC performance certainly boosted his profile but there didn't seem the be the years long build for Bedard at the same level.That is the x-factor with Lindros. A lot of things with his opponents were psychological. Lindros as a junior and Lindros as a Flyer when healthy was a sight to behold. His complete package went beyond just scoring goals. He struck fear into players. Crosby, McDavid and Bedard all are pretty equal when it comes to their hype in their draft year. This was all in the internet age while Lindros' wasn't. So we got a bit better of a gauge to compare the other three. But maybe I am missing something with people saying Lindros' offense wasn't similar to the rest. I think it was:
Lindros 149 points in 57 games = 2.61PPG
Crosby 168 points in 62 games = 2.70PPG
McDavid 120 points in 47 games = 2.55PPG
Bedard 124 points in 49 games = 2.53 PPG (games remaining in season)
All 4 players won gold for Canada in the World Juniors that year. All of them played well in that tournament, although I think either one of Lindros or Bedard (probably Bedard) comes to mind as to who played the best. All three of Lindros, Crosby and McDavid were insane in their team's playoff runs that spring too. Crosby being the only one who made the Memorial Cup and losing to the only team that could stop him in the legendary 2005 London Knights. Lindros won the Memorial Cup in 1990, the year before. It is true that all three leagues had different scoring levels at different times in their career, but if you look at the raw numbers, it is all very close. Only McDavid didn't average a goal per game that season. To me it is such a wash offensively with the 4 of them, and to isolate it more the three post-Lindros prospects. So if it is close, I think once you add in the physical factor with Lindros, the hitting, the fighting the fear driven into the opponent, then it becomes a clear issue with Lindros at #1. We know how it turned out, Lindros was made of glass in the NHL, but without knowing that I wouldn't pass him up over the other three in their draft years. I don't know who goes #2-4 but to me it is Lindros at #1.
I wonder it is just a general down shift about the importance of hockey in Canada a more and more split cultural world.I find Bedard much less hyped than McDavid and Crosby (also Lindros) were. His statistics measure up decently and his WJC performance certainly boosted his profile but there didn't seem the be the years long build for Bedard at the same level.