Connor Bedard 2022/2023 season comparing to other great juniors seasons

alko

Registered User
Oct 20, 2004
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3,360
Slovakia
Bedard is playing his own league, above others. For now he has 111 points on only 43 games.

Lots of goals (52) with 8 GWG and 5 SHG goals.

Second best player on Regina roster has only 69 points what is actually a -42 difference.

For compare, top season of others great:
McDavid

47447612048 PIM+60

Crosby

62661021688478

Lindros

577178149189


Ok, there are season from Mario Lemieux, Pat LaFontaine .... but there was many times said, only because wild 80s.

And Bedard has some games before him.

Anyway, where would be his name in the virtual table of the top junior regular seasons?
 
In terms of relative PPG domination, Crosby was the most dominant vs. the pack but I think the Q lacked some high end offensive talent that year.

Bedard is the most dominant goalscorer.




I think it is the 2nd best draft age junior season since Mario's.
 
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Could be me, could be my media bubble but it seem to me that since his beginning to now Bedard has an argument for the most impressive prospect numbers wise since Gretzky, the buzz around him his not 15% of Crosby-Lindros it feel like (maybe it is the other way around for people in the whl market).

But Hockey does not seem to have close to have the same cultural revelance, could be that my media market was so much Montreal Canadians than hockey that it feel dead when they have been really bad for more than 5 years in a row.
 
In terms of hype, no Bedard doesn't seem to be there.

Lindros hype was unreal especially benefiting from the refusing to play for Quebec that dragged it out for another year and then playing in the Canada Cup. Crosby hype was pretty close to that as well, had the benefits of amplification of the internet and following a NHL lockout where more hockey attention than usual was focused on juniors.

Others can probably comment more informedly on Lemieux.
 

World juniors all time scoring leader:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Born[/TD]
[TD]Pos[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]P[/TD]
[TD]P/GP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peter Forsberg[/TD]

[TD]
1973​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
32​
[/TD]

[TD]
42​
[/TD]

[TD]
3​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Robert Reichel[/TD]

[TD]
1971​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
40​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.905​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pavel Bure[/TD]

[TD]
1971​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
39​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.857​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Connor Bedard[/TD]

[TD]
2005​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
16
[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
36
[/TD]

[TD]
2.25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Esa Tikkanen[/TD]

[TD]
1965​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
36​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.714​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Mogilny[/TD]

[TD]
1969​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]
35​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.75​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vladimir Ruzicka[/TD]

[TD]
1963​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]
34​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.789​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Markus Näslund[/TD]

[TD]
1973​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]
34​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.429​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Niklas Sundström[/TD]

[TD]
1975​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
15​
[/TD]

[TD]
33​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.571​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Esa Keskinen[/TD]

[TD]
1965​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
32​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.286​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eric Lindros[/TD]

[TD]
1973​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.476​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Petr Rosol[/TD]

[TD]
1964​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.429​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raimo Helminen[/TD]

[TD]
1964​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
29​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.071​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
1972​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
28​
[/TD]

[TD]
2​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Nylander[/TD]

[TD]
1998​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
28​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.333​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trevor Zegras[/TD]

[TD]
2001​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.25​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jordan Schroeder[/TD]

[TD]
1990​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.421​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michal Pivonka[/TD]

[TD]
1966​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
15​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
26​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.238​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jordan Eberle[/TD]

[TD]
1990​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
26​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.167​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Filatov[/TD]

[TD]
1990​
[/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]
26​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.3​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Unlike those above Bedard never play in the tourney post draft year, if we include his world junior tourney to his "22-23 season" that could push him above the edge.
 
Could be me, could be my media bubble but it seem to me that since his beginning to now Bedard has an argument for the most impressive prospect numbers wise since Gretzky, the buzz around him his not 15% of Crosby-Lindros it feel like (maybe it is the other way around for people in the whl market).

But Hockey does not seem to have close to have the same cultural revelance, could be that my media market was so much Montreal Canadians than hockey that it feel dead when they have been really bad for more than 5 years in a row.

How does one measure this? Mario had a ridiculous PPG, much, much higher than Wayne's but also played in the most offensive Q league era ever.

Crosby has an argument for most impressive behind Mario.
 
How does one measure this? Mario had a ridiculous PPG, much, much higher than Wayne's but also played in the most offensive Q league era ever.

Crosby has an argument for most impressive behind Mario.
Lemieux was quite "old" when he scored 282

Yes McDavid, Lafleur, Mario, Lindros and Crosby also have an argument. But Bedard seem firmly in that group of people in that discussion about who it is. Scoring almost at a 2ppg in the CHL during your "15 year's old" season, scoring leader of your teams playing a bit more than half tha games...
 
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Points per 80 in draft eligible season (unadjusted for league scoring)

Lemieux 322
Lafontaine 267
Crosby 217
Turgeon, P 212
Lindros 209

Bedard 207
Daigle 207
McDavid 204
Hawerchuk 203
Kane, P 200
 
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]League[/TD]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]PPG[/TD]
[TD]league GPG[/TD]
[TD]adj to 4.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`04-05[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
168​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.709677​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.19​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.40​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]83-84[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
282​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.028571​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.01​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.22​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`22-23[/TD]

[TD]
43​
[/TD]

[TD]
111​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.581395​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.43​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.01​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McDavid[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.553191​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.92​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kane[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
145​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.73​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.68​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafreniere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
112​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.153846​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.46​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spezza[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
116​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.071429​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.33​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafontaine[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
234​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.342857​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.48​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

relative to his junior league's scoring level, Bedard is the 3rd most-impressive draft year scorer in CHL history.

What's surprising is how much Crosby comes out ahead of Lemieux, more so considering he was 17 for his entire draft year and Lemieux was 18 for his.
 
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]League[/TD]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]PPG[/TD]
[TD]league GPG[/TD]
[TD]adj to 4.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`04-05[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
168​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.709677​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.19​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.40​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]83-84[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
282​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.028571​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.01​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.22​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`22-23[/TD]

[TD]
43​
[/TD]

[TD]
111​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.581395​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.43​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.01​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McDavid[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.553191​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.92​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kane[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
145​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.73​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.68​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafreniere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
112​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.153846​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.46​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spezza[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
116​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.071429​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.33​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafontaine[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
234​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.342857​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.48​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

relative to his junior league's scoring level, Bedard is the 3rd most-impressive draft year scorer in CHL history.

What's surprising is how much Crosby comes out ahead of Lemieux, more so considering he was 17 for his entire draft year and Lemieux was 18 for his.

And rounding out the top 10 are Drouin at 2.45 and Briere at 2.42.
 
And rounding out the top 10 are Drouin at 2.45 and Briere at 2.42.
Right you are. In case anyone is curious, here are the 35 that came out over 2.0. As you can see, there's a very high correlation between placing very high on this list and scoring at a generational level in the NHL, but it doesn't follow that those just below them are NHL superstars.

After the top-4, the next 16 have 0 generational, 3 superstars, 3 stars, 2 very good player (incl. 1 who should be), 5 run-of-the-mill NHL players, and 2 busts.

The next 15 have 0 generational 3, superstars, 3 stars, 4 very good players (incl. 1 who should be), 2 run-of-the-mill NHLers, and 3 busts,

The superstar-or-better players on this list are 1st, 2nd, (3rd), 4th, 5th, 13th, 15th, 21st, 33rd and 35th.

Run-of-the-mill and busts can be found at 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There's no pattern to be found.

Top-5 on the list appear sure of success. After that, nearly anything can still happen.

CrosbyQ`04-05
62​
168​
2.709677​
3.19​
3.40​
LemieuxQ83-84
70​
282​
4.028571​
5.01​
3.22​
BedardW`22-23
43​
111​
2.581395​
3.43​
3.01​
McDavidO`14-15
47​
120​
2.553191​
3.5​
2.92​
KaneO`06-07
58​
145​
2.5​
3.73​
2.68​
LafreniereQ`19-20
52​
112​
2.153846​
3.46​
2.49​
SpezzaO00-01
56​
116​
2.071429​
3.33​
2.49​
LafontaineQ82-83
70​
234​
3.342857​
5.4​
2.48​
DrouinQ`12-13
49​
105​
2.142857​
3.49​
2.46​
BriereQ95-96
67​
163​
2.432836​
4.02​
2.42​
GagnerO`06-07
53​
118​
2.226415​
3.73​
2.39​
DaigleQ92-93
53​
137​
2.584906​
4.38​
2.36​
LindrosO90-91
57​
149​
2.614035​
4.47​
2.34​
BouchardQ`01-02
69​
140​
2.028986​
3.49​
2.33​
MarnerO`14-15
63​
126​
2​
3.5​
2.29​
BrendlW98-99
68​
134​
1.970588​
3.51​
2.25​
RossiO`19-20
56​
120​
2.142857​
3.86​
2.22​
TkachukO`15-16
57​
107​
1.877193​
3.4​
2.21​
D.StromeO`14-15
68​
129​
1.897059​
3.5​
2.17​
TavaresO`08-09
56​
104​
1.857143​
3.43​
2.17​
HawerchukQ80-81
72​
183​
2.541667​
4.7​
2.16​
HallO09-`10
57​
106​
1.859649​
3.48​
2.14​
AbidQ97-98
68​
135​
1.985294​
3.72​
2.13​
LecavalierQ97-98
58​
115​
1.982759​
3.72​
2.13​
MurrayW94-95
62​
128​
2.064516​
3.92​
2.11​
PetanW`12-13
71​
120​
1.690141​
3.21​
2.11​
ReinhartW`13-14
60​
105​
1.75​
3.34​
2.10​
M.SavardO94-95
66​
139​
2.106061​
4.04​
2.09​
WellwoodO00-01
68​
118​
1.735294​
3.33​
2.08​
DerkatchW82-83
67​
179​
2.671642​
5.16​
2.07​
JarvisW`19-20
58​
98​
1.689655​
3.27​
2.07​
P.TurgeonQ86-87
58​
154​
2.655172​
5.14​
2.07​
ThorntonO96-97
59​
122​
2.067797​
4.01​
2.06​
BrownW85-86
69​
173​
2.507246​
4.97​
2.02​
StamkosO`07-08
61​
105​
1.721311​
3.45​
2.00​
 
Right you are. In case anyone is curious, here are the 35 that came out over 2.0. As you can see, there's a very high correlation between placing very high on this list and scoring at a generational level in the NHL, but it doesn't follow that those just below them are NHL superstars.

After the top-4, the next 16 have 0 generational, 3 superstars, 3 stars, 2 very good player (incl. 1 who should be), 5 run-of-the-mill NHL players, and 2 busts.

The next 15 have 0 generational 3, superstars, 3 stars, 4 very good players (incl. 1 who should be), 2 run-of-the-mill NHLers, and 3 busts,

The superstar-or-better players on this list are 1st, 2nd, (3rd), 4th, 5th, 13th, 15th, 21st, 33rd and 35th.

Run-of-the-mill and busts can be found at 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There's no pattern to be found.

Top-5 on the list appear sure of success. After that, nearly anything can still happen.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`04-05[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
168​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.709677​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.19​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.40​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lemieux[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]83-84[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
282​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.028571​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.01​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.22​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`22-23[/TD]

[TD]
43​
[/TD]

[TD]
111​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.581395​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.43​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.01​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McDavid[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.553191​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.92​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kane[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
145​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.73​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.68​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafreniere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
112​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.153846​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.46​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spezza[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
116​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.071429​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.33​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.49​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lafontaine[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
234​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.342857​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.48​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drouin[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`12-13[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
105​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.142857​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.49​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.46​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Briere[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]95-96[/TD]

[TD]
67​
[/TD]

[TD]
163​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.432836​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.02​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.42​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gagner[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`06-07[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.226415​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.73​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.39​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Daigle[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]92-93[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
137​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.584906​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.38​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.36​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lindros[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]90-91[/TD]

[TD]
57​
[/TD]

[TD]
149​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.614035​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.47​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.34​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bouchard[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]`01-02[/TD]

[TD]
69​
[/TD]

[TD]
140​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.028986​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.49​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.33​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marner[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]

[TD]
63​
[/TD]

[TD]
126​
[/TD]

[TD]
2​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.29​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brendl[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]98-99[/TD]

[TD]
68​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.970588​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.51​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.25​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rossi[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.142857​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.86​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.22​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tkachuk[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`15-16[/TD]

[TD]
57​
[/TD]

[TD]
107​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.877193​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.4​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.21​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D.Strome[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`14-15[/TD]

[TD]
68​
[/TD]

[TD]
129​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.897059​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.5​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tavares[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`08-09[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
104​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.857143​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.43​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hawerchuk[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]80-81[/TD]

[TD]
72​
[/TD]

[TD]
183​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.541667​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.7​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.16​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hall[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]09-`10[/TD]

[TD]
57​
[/TD]

[TD]
106​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.859649​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.48​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Abid[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]97-98[/TD]

[TD]
68​
[/TD]

[TD]
135​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.985294​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.72​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lecavalier[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]97-98[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
115​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.982759​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.72​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]94-95[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
128​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.064516​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.92​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Petan[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`12-13[/TD]

[TD]
71​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.690141​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.21​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reinhart[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`13-14[/TD]

[TD]
60​
[/TD]

[TD]
105​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.75​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.34​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]M.Savard[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]94-95[/TD]

[TD]
66​
[/TD]

[TD]
139​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.106061​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.04​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.09​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wellwood[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]00-01[/TD]

[TD]
68​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.735294​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.33​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.08​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Derkatch[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]82-83[/TD]

[TD]
67​
[/TD]

[TD]
179​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.671642​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.16​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.07​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jarvis[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]`19-20[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
98​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.689655​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.27​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.07​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P.Turgeon[/TD]
[TD]Q[/TD]
[TD]86-87[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
154​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.655172​
[/TD]

[TD]
5.14​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.07​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thornton[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]96-97[/TD]

[TD]
59​
[/TD]

[TD]
122​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.067797​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.01​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.06​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brown[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]85-86[/TD]

[TD]
69​
[/TD]

[TD]
173​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.507246​
[/TD]

[TD]
4.97​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.02​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD]`07-08[/TD]

[TD]
61​
[/TD]

[TD]
105​
[/TD]

[TD]
1.721311​
[/TD]

[TD]
3.45​
[/TD]

[TD]
2.00​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Really interesting stuff. Obviously need to take adjusted stats with a grain of salt at the best of times, and throw in the wildness of the the CHL compared to the NHL too, but the correlation between four of the Top 5 and their NHL careers makes sense.

- Strength of team makes a huge difference for a player like Drouin.

- Surprised Lindros isn't higher as the I thought given the gap between him and the next best 10/20 scorers was close to McDavid level. Need to take a closer look at this.

- I totally forgot that Wayne's OHL season in 77/78 was his age 16 season. How would that season line up on this list?* I suspect pretty high. I would also be curious where Crosby's 16 year old season lines up too.*


* I appreciate the work you put into this. I have wasted, I mean spent usefully, many hours calculating these types of stats. I do not want to presume that you can calculate these at request.
 
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- Surprised Lindros isn't higher as the I thought given the gap between him and the next best 10/20 scorers was close to McDavid level. Need to take a closer look at this.

- I totally forgot that Wayne's OHL season in 77/78 was his age 16 season. How would that season line up on this list?* I suspect pretty high. I would also be curious where Crosby's 16 year old season lines up too.*

OK, here are the best %'s ahead of the avg. PPGs of the other Top Ten scorers:

Mario - PPG of 4.02 was 99% better (2,02)

Crosby (age 17) - PPG of 2.71 was 87% better (1.45)

Wayne (age 16) - PPG of 2.89 was 82% better (1.59)*

Bedard - PPG of 2.56 is 73% better (1.48)

Crosby (age 16) - PPG of 2.29 was 56% better (1.47)

McDavid - PPG of 2.55 was 53% better (1.67)

Lindros - PPG of 2.61 was 38% better (1.89)

Kane - PPG of 2.50 was 32% better (1.84)

Mario (age 16) - PPG of 2.79 was 25% better (2.23)**


* removed Bobby Smith as an outlier as he would have playing the NHL if allowed

** removed Lafontaine as an outlier


COMMENT

Not surprised to see Mario move up

No surprise to see Wayne at age 16

Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario as a prospect than he was to any other prospect

Bedard's looking very impressive, moreso given his goalscoring dominance

No surprise to see Lindros higher than Kane




 
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I am not sure how strong a pattern this constitutes, but the players in the bust or run-of-the-mill ("ROTM") category (accepting Seventies' categorizations) derived a much higher share of their points from assists (in their age 18 junior season) than did the players categorized as superstars.

For the 11 busts/ROTM, median A/G ratio of 1.87.
For the nine superstars (I didn't include Bedard), median A/G ratio of 1.34.

Here are the 20 players in declining order of A/G.

Gagner 2.37
Wellwood 2.37
Rossi 2.08
Daigle 2.04
Bouchard 2.04

Thornton 1.98
Strome 1.87
Marner 1.86
McDavid 1.73
Abid 1.70

Petan 1.61
Drouin 1.56
Crosby 1.55
Kane 1.34
Hawerchuk 1.26

Derkatch 1.13
Lemieux 1.12
Lindros 1.10
Brendl 0.84
Stamkos 0.81

Players with an A/G ratio of 2:1 in their draft eligible season (less than a third of their points were from goals), are more likely to end up as a bust or a ROM player than are players who got at least a third of their points from goals.

And, FWIW, among the players not categorized as super star or bust/ROTM, the better players generally had lower A/G ratios in their 18 year old junior season:

Tavares 0.79
Turgeon 1.23
Lafontaine 1.25
Jarvis 1.33
Briere 1.43

Lecavalier 1.61
Hall 1.65
Spezza 1.70
Reinhart 1.92
Brown 1.98

Lafrenieire 2.20
Savard 2.23
Tkachuk 2.57
 
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Really interesting stuff. Obviously need to take adjusted stats with a grain of salt at the best of times, and throw in the wildness of the the CHL compared to the NHL too, but the correlation between four of the Top 5 and their NHL careers makes sense.

- Strength of team makes a huge difference for a player like Drouin.

- Surprised Lindros isn't higher as the I thought given the gap between him and the next best 10/20 scorers was close to McDavid level. Need to take a closer look at this.

- I totally forgot that Wayne's OHL season in 77/78 was his age 16 season. How would that season line up on this list?* I suspect pretty high. I would also be curious where Crosby's 16 year old season lines up too.*


* I appreciate the work you put into this. I have wasted, I mean spent usefully, many hours calculating these types of stats. I do not want to presume that you can calculate these at request.
I'll get those numbers when I get home. I do have some selected D-1 and D-2 numbers compiled, but not much.
 
This thread makes me wonder... why wasn’t Pat Lafontaine drafted first overall in 1983? And perhaps more intriguing, why was he drafted behind Sylvain Turgeon despite having a substantially better year in the same league?
 
This thread makes me wonder... why wasn’t Pat Lafontaine drafted first overall in 1983? And perhaps more intriguing, why was he drafted behind Sylvain Turgeon despite having a substantially better year in the same league?
Too small, whereas about Turgeon there were no concerns. Still, he was ranked one notch higher also before the draft, albeit not first:

NHL Central Scouting Bureau
1. Brian Lawton
2. Pat LaFontaine
3. Steve Yzerman
4. Sylvain Turgeon
5. John MacLean
6. Andrew McBain

The Hockey News
1. Steve Yzerman
2. Pat LaFontaine
3. Adam Creighton
4. Andrew McBain
5. Brian Lawton
6. Sylvain Turgeon
 
Too small, whereas about Turgeon there were no concerns. Still, he was ranked one notch higher also before the draft, albeit not first:

NHL Central Scouting Bureau
1. Brian Lawton
2. Pat LaFontaine
3. Steve Yzerman
4. Sylvain Turgeon
5. John MacLean
6. Andrew McBain

The Hockey News
1. Steve Yzerman
2. Pat LaFontaine
3. Adam Creighton
4. Andrew McBain
5. Brian Lawton
6. Sylvain Turgeon
It’s not the size of the boat. It’s the motion of the ocean.
 
Pre-draft articles mentioned the small size of Lafontaine and Yzerman, and that it was not considered to be a banner year for Cdn juniors.

An article from right before the draft said that a few weeks prior it looked like Lafontaine was the sure-fire first pick, but that his stock was falling, that Lawton would almost certainly go #1, and that there was an outside chance that Lafontaine would go as low as 4th.

An article from right after the draft said that NYI was surprised Lafontaine was available at 3. They figured Hfd would take Lafontaine 2 (after Lawton), and were all set to take Andrew Mcbain 3rd, but when Hfd took Sly 2nd, they jumped on Lafontaine 3rd.

An article from later that summer says a Whalers source said they drafted Turgeon over Lafontaine b/c Lafontaine refused a medial by the Whalers before the draft, while Sly agreed to the medical. I guess Lafontaine had an allergy problem that requires periodic injections. The article says the source said the Whalers were concerned about this, but that Lafontaine's agent said the allergy is not serious.

Seems like a minor thing and I am not sure how much truth there is to it, but maybe it explains Hfd passing on Lafontaine.
 
I have noticed that Bedard and McDavid are putting up similar PPG. Bedard did put up more impressive stats than McDavid at the WJC. However, McDavid was fortunate enough to play with Strome and DeBrincat during his draft year. Bedard is pretty much alone, playing on a lousy Regina Pats team.

It's entirely more conceivable that in 5 years, Bedard could eclipse McDavid in the NHL.
 
I have noticed that Bedard and McDavid are putting up similar PPG. Bedard did put up more impressive stats than McDavid at the WJC. However, McDavid was fortunate enough to play with Strome and DeBrincat during his draft year. Bedard is pretty much alone, playing on a lousy Regina Pats team.

It's entirely more conceivable that in 5 years, Bedard could eclipse McDavid in the NHL.

I think we should all just agree that WJC stats are pretty much useless. They are dominated by huge scores being run up against weak competition. 1 or 2 points against quality opposition is considerably more meaningful than 6+ points against a team that barely made it into the tournament, but the point totals are driven largely by latter relative to the former.
 
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I think we should all just agree that WJC stats are pretty much useless. They are dominated by huge scores being run up against weak competition. 1 or 2 points against quality opposition is considerably more meaningful than 6+ points against a team that barely made it into the tournament, but the point totals are driven largely by latter relative to the former.

No one has dominated the WJC like Bedard did since a young Wayne Gretzky.

Besides that was not the main point- that Bedard has the same PPG as McDavid did, except McDavid had star NHLers on his line. Bedard is doing it with scrubs.
 
It's funny there was doubt around Gretzky, there was zero doubt around Lemieux and Lindros. Size matters unfortunately, until the player proves they can overcome it. It's not fair for a prospect, but it's true. In terms of hype, Lindros was the most hype I had ever seen for a prospect. With Crosby, Mcdavid and Bedard being relatively close, edge to Crosby since he was known for a lot longer.

Let's see how his game adjusts to the pro game. I think it's fair to have doubts for any prospect and easy to set expectations too high. Let's see if that shot baffles NHL goalies and if he can find time and space for it.

Crosby's run included him dragging his team to the Memorial Cup, they really had no business there, NHL lockout probably caused more focus on him. They obviously didn't win it, but he was a force that second half of the season. It's almost better if Bedard's team misses out on the playoffs and he could go to the Men's World Championships and tear it apart.
 
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Crosby's run included him dragging his team to the Memorial Cup, they really had no business there, NHL lockout probably caused more focus on him. They obviously didn't win it, but he was a force that second half of the season. It's almost better if Bedard's team misses out on the playoffs and he could go to the Men's World Championships and tear it apart.
The Regina Pats are likely going to get knocked out in the first round, so I can definitely see Team Canada inviting him to play in the World Championship. Speaking of Bedard, he is a cousin of 15 year old Gavin Mckenna, who is a hockey prodigy in his own right.
 
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