Comparing Ben Scrivens to Ryan Miller

[Mystifo]

Ryan Miller First Full NHL Season was after a lockout, at age 25
30-14-3, 2.60, 0.914%
Ben Scrivens First Full NHL Season after a lockout, at age 26
???

R Miller
6'2", 175lb - Tall, lanky, aggressive on shooters
B Scrivens
6'2", 190lb - Tall, lanky, aggressive on shooters

Ryan Miller
AHL Career: 92-61-16, 2.34, 0.922%, 15 SO (9% of total GP)
Ben Scrivens
AHL Career: 49-34-7, 2.19, 0.922%, 8 SO (9% of total GP)

Ryan Miller as an NHL Rookie at 22/23 years old
6-11-1, 3.02, 0.886%
Ben Scrivens as an NHL Rookie at 25 years old
4-5-2, 3.13, 0.903%

Ryan Miller in the CCHA
Career Michigan State: 73-19-12, 1.54, 0.941%, 26 SO
Ben Scrivens in the ECAC
Career Cornell: 65-37-13, 1.93, 0.930%, 19 SO

Ryan Miller Career AHL Playoffs (24 and 25 year old)
13-13, 2.37, 0.916%, 2SO
Ben Scrivens Career AHL Playoffs (25 year old)
11-6, 1.92, 0.935%, 3SO

Interesting to say the least. Be fun to see if he follows similar path but I am not going to bank on him becoming a Ryan Miller like goalie.

 

[alcanalz]

I think it's clear to anyone who has ever watched Miller that he's an elite goalie.

 

[zeke]

wait, but I've watched him play more than you have, and I don't think he's an elite goalie.

I'm guessing you only watched him on one of his hot streaks, such as his one great playoff run, and have missed or ignored all his bad performances.

 

[ULF_55]

I think that belief is why the Sabres are overrated every year. Miller is a solid average to slightly above average starting goalie.

1. T.Thomas (38): 2yrs -116gms, .930 (career - 378gms, .921)
2. P.Rinne (30): 2yrs - 137gms, .926 (career - 250gms, .921)
3. H.Lundqvist (30): 2yrs - 130gms, .926 (career - 468gms, .920)
4. R.Luongo (33): 2yrs - 115gms, .924 (career - 727gms, .919)
5. J.Quick (27): 2yrs - 130gms, .924 (career - 249gms, .916)
6. M.Smith (30): 2yrs - 89gms, .924 (career - 229gms, .914)
7. C.Price (25): 2yrs, 137gms, .920 (career - 271gms, .916)
8. T.Vokoun (36): 2yrs - 105gms, .920 (career - 680gms, .917)
9. C.Ward (28): 2yrs - 142gms, .919 (career - 414gms, .910)
10. K.Lehtonen (29): 2yrs - 128gms, .918 (career - 344gms, .914)
11. S.Varlamov (24): 2yrs - 80gms, .918 (career - 112gms, .915)
12. A.Niemi (29): 2yrs - 128gms, .917 (career - 170gms, .915)
13. J.Halak (27): 2yrs - 103gms, .917 (career - 204gms, .918)
14. N.Backstrom (34): 2yrs - 97gms, .917 (career - 327gms, .918)
15. J.Theodore (36): 2yrs - 85gms, .917 (career - 633gms, .909)
16. J.Hiller (30): 2yrs - 122gms, .916 (career - 250gms, .918)
17. R.Miller (32): 2yrs - 127gms, .916 (career - 460gms, .915)
18. I.Bryzgalov (32): 2yrs - 127gms, .916 (career - 385gms, .915)
19. M.Fleury (28): 2yrs - 132gms, .916 (career - 434gms, .909)
20. D.Dubnyk (26): 2yrs - 82gms, .915 (career - 101gms, .910)
21. J.Howard (28): 2yrs - 120gms, .914 (career - 192gms, .917)
22. M.Kiprusoff (36): 2yrs - 141gms, .914 (career - 599gms, .914)
23. C.Anderson (31): 2yrs - 114gms, .914 (career - 294gms, .913)
24. E.Nabokov (37): 2yrs - 42gms, .914 (career - 605gms, .912)
25. J.Reimer (24): 2yrs - 71gms, .911 (career - 71gms, .911)
26. C.Crawford (28): 2yrs - 114gms, .910 (career - 122gms, .910)
27. O.Pavelec (25): 2yrs - 126gms, .910 (career - 187gms, .907)
28. S.Bobrovsky (24): 2yrs - 83gms, .909 (career - 83gms, .909)
29. M.Brodeur (40): 2yrs - 115gms, .906 (career - 1191gms, .913)
30. M.Garon (35): 2yrs - 84gms, .901 (career - 323gms, .904)

and then you have backups who could be good starters in Rask, Schneider, Lindback, Holtby, Neuvirth, etc.


Of course you take Ryan Miller ahead of less proven guys or older guys with smaller sample sizes listed ahead of him in that list, but even then, he's more of a "solid average" guy than an "elite" one.

For perspective:

4. R.Luongo (33): 2yrs - 115gms, .924 (career - 727gms, .919, 2.52)
17. R.Miller (32): 2yrs - 127gms, .916 (career - 460gms, .915, 2.57)

Career wise difference of:
.004 in save percentage.
.05 in goals against average.

 

[zeke]

.004 save percentage is a significant difference.

 

[AINEC*]

Scrivens will win at minimum 6 Vezina titles and 3 Stanley Cups in which he will win the Conn Smythe for all 3.

(Obviously kidding, but I'd love to see Scrivens (or Reimer) come in and play well enough to be considered an NHL starter... but then again, who wouldn't?)

 

[ULF_55]

.004 save percentage is a significant difference.

So Miller is better than Kyprusoff. I'm not sure many would turn down Kipper as the Leafs starter.

 

[zeke]

For more perspective, best to worst seasons:

Luongo: .931 (+.002)
Miller: .929

Luongo: .928 (+.010)
Miller: .918

Luongo: .921 (+.005)
Miller: .916

Luongo: .920 (+.004)
Miller: .916

Luongo: .919 (+.005)
Miller: .914

Luongo: .918 (+.007)
Miller: .911

Luongo: .917 (+.011)
Miller: .906

Luongo: .915 (+.013)
Miller: .902

Luongo: .914 (+.119)
Miller: .795

Luongo: .913 (+ ---)
Miller: ---

Luongo: .904 (+ ---)
Miller: .---

 

[zeke]

So Miller is better than Kyprusoff. I'm not sure many would turn down Kipper as the Leafs starter.

I wouldn't touch Kipper, myself. One of the few goalies more overrated than Miller.

 

[SteveV*]

Save percentage aside, Miller stands on his head at critical times and he's done that for years. He is an upper echelon goalie, if not entirely "elite".

 

[zeke]

Miller has stood on his head at a critical time.....once or twice.

 

[SteveV*]

Miller has stood on his head at a critical time.....once.

Seriously? I'm not saying he's the best in the league, but he's gone on some wonderful runs carrying that team on his back, things that save percentage and other statistical analyses don't quite digest. I would love to have him as our goalie, major upgrade.

 

[King Mapes]

While Reimer had a nearly identical rookie year as Price

People say we need a goalie but we have Miller and Price, folks

 

[alcanalz]

wait, but I've watched him play more than you have, and I don't think he's an elite goalie.

I'm guessing you only watched him on one of his hot streaks, such as his one great playoff run, and have missed or ignored all his bad performances.

That's an interesting assumption that you've watched him more than me, and I'm guessing you're reading a printout of your pro-rated stats right now and can't figure out for the life of you why almost every rational and clear-thinking hockey fan thinks he's an elite goalie.

Stick to the stats and leave the watching hockey and making real judgments to everyone else.

 

[zeke]

It's not an assumption, I know I've watched him more than you.

But continue on with your eagle eyes, and your opinion that players can never be over or underrated by the hockey world in general.....and keep wondering year after year why the sabres aren't as good as you think they should be.

 

[zeke]

Seriously? I'm not saying he's the best in the league, but he's gone on some wonderful runs carrying that team on his back, things that save percentage and other statistical analyses don't quite digest. I would love to have him as our goalie, major upgrade.

lots and lots of goalies have gone on wonderful runs.

In fact, every single starting goalie in hockey, and most backups, have gone on multiple wonderful runs.

 

[alcanalz]

It's not an assumption, I know I've watched him more than you.

But continue on with your eagle eyes, and your opinion that players can never be over or underrated by the hockey world in general.....and keep wondering year after year why the sabres aren't as good as you think they should be.

Alright, concrete conclusions based on nothing, that's new.

The Sabres are where they are and are precisely where they deserve to be. A middle of the pack team with an elite goalie.

Of course players can be overrated and underrated. Case in point, how you overrate the Leafs every year. But when everyone and their mother is saying "yes, Miller is a clear and established elite goalie" and you are saying, "no, I have some stats here that say something or other, QED, not elite" then perhaps you might be wrong.

 

[zeke]

Alright, concrete conclusions based on nothing, that's new.

The Sabres are where they are and are precisely where they deserve to be. A middle of the pack team with an elite goalie.

Sabres last 5 years:

11/12: 89pts
10/11: 96pts
09/10: 100pts
08/09: 91pts
07/08: 90pts

Take a wild guess at which single one of those seasons Miller actually provided elite goaltending.

Of course players can be overrated and underrated. Case in point, how you overrate the Leafs every year.

Every year, I have clearly pointed out the Leafs' fate rests on their goaltending.

But when everyone and their mother is saying "yes, Miller is a clear and established elite goalie" and you are saying, "no, I have some stats here that say something or other, QED, not elite" then perhaps you might be wrong.

Perhaps I might be wrong, Perhaps I might be right.

What's most interesting to me, of course, is how many Buffalo Sabres fans agree with me that he's overrated. You know, the guys who watch all his games, not just his highlight reels.

 

[alcanalz]

Sabres last 5 years:

11/12: 89pts
10/11: 96pts
09/10: 100pts
08/09: 91pts
07/08: 90pts

Take a wild guess at which single one of those seasons Miller actually provided elite goaltending.



Every year, I have clearly pointed out the Leafs' fate rests on their goaltending.



Perhaps I might be wrong, Perhaps I might be right.

What's most interesting to me, of course, is how many Buffalo Sabres fans agree with me that he's overrated. You know, the guys who watch all his games, not just his highlight reels.

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove pointing out the Sabres' season totals of points.

Every year you have predicted the Leafs' to make the playoffs, goaltending questions notwithstanding.

Let's create a poll shall we? In the poll section and / or on the Buffalo board and let's see how accurate your assertion is that Buffalo fans think he's not elite. Love to see the results of that.

 

[zeke]

the Sabres points proves the opposite of what you were saying, obviously.

The one season Miller has put up elite numbers, his team put up elite points.

The other seasons they did not.

And please feel free to poll the Sabres board as to his eliteness. I trust you'll word the poll question and options clearly and fairly, of course.

 

[zeke]

or, of course, you could just search the Miller-titled threads on the sabres board to find more in-depth opinion.

I don't think you'll find the consensus "elite" opinion that you seem to be so sure of, to be honest.

Here, I did it for you:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/search.php?searchid=18838395

here's the 5 most recent Miller thread titles, for example:

News Article: Rebound by Miller among 6 questions
WGR Advanced Stats Regarding Miller ‎( 1 2)
The Impending Enroth/Miller debacle ‎( 1 2)
Twitter: Miller on the trading block? (Incarcerated Bob)
Lindy Ruff and Goaltenders - is Miller Burned Out? ‎( 1 2 3 4)

 

[alcanalz]

I will word it fairly, no worries on that end.

Maybe you can explain to me how 96 points is not an elite season, but adding four more points to that and hitting 100 is. You also left out the 05-06 season, Miller's first year getting the lion's share of the work in which they hit 110 points and went to the conference finals with a crazy amount of injuries.

Miller had a poor first half last year and therefore a subpar year. That happens to everyone. Is Corey Perry not elite either? If you intended for those threads to prove anything one way or another you're out of luck.

 

[zeke]

You really need me to tell you the difference between being a top seed in one year and a 7th placed borderline playoff team in the other?

As for Corey Perry, he's had one elite season, much like Miller. If he can't repeat it, like Miller couldn't, then no, he won't be considered elite anymore. If he does, then he will be.

 

[7even]

Things Ryan Miller and Ben Scrivens have in common:

1. They are both goalies
2. I made this list about both of them

 

[Fenton]

Cool.. their history on paper is similar.

But their styles are way different.
Look at their stances alone, they are very very different goalies.