College Hockey College Free Agent talk II

[bbfan419]

The guys I would like the Bruins to sign are: TJ Hughes, Gleb Veremeyev and the goalie from U Maine.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

couple things.

there are more udfa than 2nd rounders. you only have 32 per season.. You have countless UDFA you can sign.

Merkulov was also 21. I see these guys as free assets and all for them, I just would never compare it as important as a 1 or 2.

Undrafted Active NHL Players<br>Points leaders

Undrafted Active NHL Players<br>Points leaders

www.quanthockey.com

Second round NHL draft picks<br>Active points leaders

Second round NHL draft picks<br>Active points leaders

www.quanthockey.com

But most of the UDFA are depth players, and Merk sadly never profiled as a depth guy. Look at Fran Vatrano as the leading scorer among active players of those who went the college route, and Torey Krug is likely still be best UDFA signing of the 21rst century from the college route.

 

[PlayMakers]

couple things.

there are more udfa than 2nd rounders. you only have 32 per season.. You have countless UDFA you can sign.

Merkulov was also 21. I see these guys as free assets and all for them, I just would never compare it as important as a 1 or 2.

Undrafted Active NHL Players<br>Points leaders

Undrafted Active NHL Players<br>Points leaders

www.quanthockey.com

Second round NHL draft picks<br>Active points leaders

Second round NHL draft picks<br>Active points leaders

www.quanthockey.com

I thought there were a lot less UDFA’s than 2nd rounders.

Not sure how to look it up, but I don’t recall seeing 40+ UDFA’s signed every single year. Can someone fact check that?

 

[LouJersey]

I thought there were a lot less UDFA’s than 2nd rounders.

i don’t recall seeing 40+ UDFA’s signed every single year. Can someone fact check that?

It goes for all the signings. CHL, Europe....all that.

 

[PlayMakers]

It goes for all the signings. CHL, Europe....all that.

Again, I could be totally off, but I feel like it’s one to two Europeans, three to four CHL guys and about a dozen college players per year on average.

 

[LouJersey]

Again, I could be totally off, but I feel like it’s one to two Europeans, three to four CHL guys and about a dozen college players per year on average.

Could be me as well, just seems like a load of signings from now through June

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Again, I could be totally off, but I feel like it’s one to two Europeans, three to four CHL guys and about a dozen college players per year on average.

It's way more than that. Admittedly not everyone gets and NHL deal right away so a bit harder to say, but if you include PTO and then AHL contracts, there are a lot more

Just in 2024, 47 UDFA signed NHL contracts, but that list does include some people who were kicking around the minors on AHL deals for a while. Hard for me to make sense of who is what on the list, and I don't have time or interest, but I would guess the number who got NHL deals right out of NCAA/Juniors/etc was around 25-30, and probably 2-3 times as many got AHL deals

Looked through a few years and 47 seems loser to the norm, but it has been as high as 72 a couple years back

 

[Blowfish]

How soon could we see some players possibly joining the bruins orgy? lol organization. Leaving that as is. lol.

 

[PlayMakers]

It's way more than that. Admittedly not everyone gets and NHL deal right away so a bit harder to say, but if you include PTO and then AHL contracts, there are a lot more

Just in 2024, 47 UDFA signed NHL contracts, but that list does include some people who were kicking around the minors on AHL deals for a while. Hard for me to make sense of who is what on the list, and I don't have time or interest, but I would guess the number who got NHL deals right out of NCAA/Juniors/etc was around 25-30, and probably 2-3 times as many got AHL deals

Looked through a few years and 47 seems loser to the norm, but it has been as high as 72 a couple years back

Yeah, I think you should eliminate all the PTO's and AHL contracts. They're not NHL property.

The argument is that these college UFA signings are like a free 2nd round pick. Nobody is claiming that a guy on a PTO is like a second round pick.

If you're guess is right, that about 30 a year are signed, then it is another argument in favor of the premise that a UDFA is like a free 2nd, because as @Smitty93 said, the rate would be about the same. There are about as many UDFA's in the NHL as 2nd round picks, and about as many UDFA's signed as picks taken each year.

 

[Smitty93]

Yeah, I think you should eliminate all the PTO's and AHL contracts. They're not NHL property.

The argument is that these college UFA signings are like a free 2nd round pick. Nobody is claiming that a guy on a PTO is like a second round pick.

If you're guess is right, that about 30 a year are signed, then it is another argument in favor of the premise that a UDFA is like a free 2nd, because as @Smitty93 said, the rate would be about the same. There are about as many UDFA's in the NHL as 2nd round picks, and about as many UDFA's signed as picks taken each year.

Really, you also need an expected value/return function. Let's say the percentage of 2nd round picks that become full-time NHLers is 33% (arbitrarily picked for our purposes) and it's the same percentage for UDFAs. You might say the UDFA is equal to a 2nd round pick, but you also have to look at the value they provide.

Let's say the hit rate on 3rd rounders is 25% (same arbitrary selection as above). You'd think you were better off with a UDFA if their expected hit rate was 33%, but if the average 3rd round NHLer provides 50% more value than the average UDFA, you'd expect a greater return on your 3rd than a UDFA signing.

I'm sure a lot of teams with analytics departments have modeled this sort of thing out so that they can figure out how best to spend their resources.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Really, you also need an expected value/return function. Let's say the percentage of 2nd round picks that become full-time NHLers is 33% (arbitrarily picked for our purposes) and it's the same percentage for UDFAs. You might say the UDFA is equal to a 2nd round pick, but you also have to look at the value they provide.

Let's say the hit rate on 3rd rounders is 25% (same arbitrary selection as above). You'd think you were better off with a UDFA if their expected hit rate was 33%, but if the average 3rd round NHLer provides 50% more value than the average UDFA, you'd expect a greater return on your 3rd than a UDFA signing.

I'm sure a lot of teams with analytics departments have modeled this sort of thing out so that they can figure out how best to spend their resources.

The other factor is that all success is not the same.. the odds of a second round pick playing 100 games in the NHL, may be similar to that of a UDFA.

That said the odds of getting a very good or better player is MUCH higher in the second round than it is in UDFA, especially North American UDFA. As most of the few who made it big from UDFA class are the older Europeans like Pannarin. Generally from the undrafted college crowd you generally just get depth players

 

[DominicT]

Special podcast a week tomorrow on the NCAA free agents with a special guest. He's a scout in the US for McKeen's and with Pro Hockey Group.

Details will follow.