Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[LadyStanley]

Court ruling gives Oregon State and Washington State control of the Pac-12

The two schools argued that they should be the only ones with voting rights after eight other schools left this summer.

sports.yahoo.com

And the last two remaining teams get control of assets

 

[KevFu]

The scheduling alliance sounds a lot like a precursor to a merger, but a merger can't happen with the "Pac-12 control issue" still in court.

The merger has always made the most sense, but it's complicated.

The Pac-2 have: A great brand name, a TV network with no content, and for now status as a P5; plus the NCAA Tournament and CFP/Bowl revenues they've previously earned. But only 2 teams and no TV deal/TV partners, and a conference office they have no faith in (and cost a ton to rent).

The MWC have 12 teams, a TV deal and TV partners; a conference office in a cheaper location and whom everyone has faith in; but less equity in their brand, no P5 status.

And they have $17m exit fee penalties to leave and join the Pac-12. Not to mention that more than 5 core members leaving the MWC for the Pac-12 would trigger litigation amongst THEM just like 10 teams leaving the Pac-12 led to litigation.

Match made in heaven.

 

[KevFu]

The decision to merge is really a simple math equation:

The amount of money you give up by sharing it with additional members who don't grow your pie vs the amount of money in exit fees the MWC teams have to pay those left behind.

Because of the extra headache of litigation if you reduce the number of MWC members to below 6 (and remeber Hawaii is kind of a "half"), there's no scenario where it doesn't make more sense to simply merge than invite some but not all the MWC members.

 

[GindyDraws]

The decision to merge is really a simple math equation:

The amount of money you give up by sharing it with additional members who don't grow your pie vs the amount of money in exit fees the MWC teams have to pay those left behind.

Because of the extra headache of litigation if you reduce the number of MWC members to below 6 (and remeber Hawaii is kind of a "half"), there's no scenario where it doesn't make more sense to simply merge than invite some but not all the MWC members.

I know that the Mountain West has some unappealing schools like Wyoming, who are in a state that's remote, and San Jose State, who never bother to upgrade their athletic facilities, but considering how Washington State and Oregon State have Pac-12 money right now, it's the safer and easier move to just invite everyone now and worry about that later. Who knows? Maybe you can use that leverage to finally get San Jose State to bring their facilities to the 21st century.

 

[PCSPounder]

If one of the networks is telling the PAC-2 that they’ll pay more for a best-of-the-rest conference, then does a merger make more sense?

Or…

…if the PAC-2 brings along a little egg nest, does the b12 take them at reduced-to-no payout?

As much as I lament the dissolution of regional integrity, it’s the money. Yes, math will be part of it.

 

[KevFu]

I know that the Mountain West has some unappealing schools like Wyoming, who are in a state that's remote, and San Jose State, who never bother to upgrade their athletic facilities, but considering how Washington State and Oregon State have Pac-12 money right now, it's the safer and easier move to just invite everyone now and worry about that later. Who knows? Maybe you can use that leverage to finally get San Jose State to bring their facilities to the 21st century.

The reason it's gotta be a full merger IMO is because the same logic that brought you to "Just invite everyone" plus the fact that If they invite everyone and everyone accepts, the MWC assets disappear: The MWC would cease to exist.

A merger keeps the assets of both -- the most lucrative being the Pac-12 war chest of exit fees and NCAA payouts and the MWC TV contract (since the Pac-12 doesn't have one).

If one of the networks is telling the PAC-2 that they’ll pay more for a best-of-the-rest conference, then does a merger make more sense?

Or…

…if the PAC-2 brings along a little egg nest, does the b12 take them at reduced-to-no payout?

As much as I lament the dissolution of regional integrity, it’s the money. Yes, math will be part of it.

The Big 12 could have taken them along with the others and decided not to. I'd assume that's off the table because it's "another mouth to feed" that doesn't contribute as significantly as the "Four Corners" schools.

As for the "Best of the Rest Conference," the problem with getting a TV deal isn't really the membership of the league.... it's the fact that ESPN is the only real serious major player in 24/7 sports (with 3 channels!) and CBS and NBC view sports as either "Big Event or Weekend programming" and go bargain shopping. And Fox is halfway between.

It's not cost-efficient for the TV networks to pay conferences in a linear fashion. ESPN says "Screw the middle, let's just give a grateful small conference a tiny amount of money to fill ESPN2/ESPNU content, and we'll pay $2 per viewer instead of $10 per viewer.


A "Best of the Rest" conference isn't going to work ESPN already HAS that with the American, and the other networks don't need to pay $7m per school to a conference that won't win TV viewers away from P4 games on ABC, ESPN, FOX, CBS, NBC, but might win viewers from MWC/AAC games on ESPN2, ESPNU, FS1, and CBSSN.


Rebuilding the Pac-12 as a "Best of the Rest" conference is one big Catch-22: You need a roster of schools good enough to get a $10m per school TV deal, but can't get a TV deal without the roster of schools.

The American couldn't get MWC teams to jump ship (right before the AAC added North Texas, Rice, UTSA, Charlotte, UAB and FAU). And the MWC can't get American schools to jump ship either.

MWC teams would pay $17m in exit fees to get $3m more per season in TV money. So over a six-year TV deal, they're spending $1m more in travel costs and breaking even. What's the point?

And of course, when trying to get a TV deal, you have Fox/CBS who have a contract with the MWC now. If you take 5 MWC members and 3 other schools... Fox/CBS are gonna say "Why pay you $10m per school when we still owe the MWC $54 million per season and you just damaged that inventory?


The MWC/Pac-12 merger just makes the most sense. Basically the Pac-2 JOINS the MWC for a 14-team conference that renames itself the Pac-12; no one pays exit fees, they HAVE TV partners... they can say "you're already paying $54 million for the MWC, now we have two Pac-12 members for more and better inventory. And the Pac-12 name and brand are worth a lot, too. We just turned the #7 conference into the #5 conference.... We'd like an extra $44m per season." And they'd have the same TV deal as the American.

 

[LadyStanley]

Sources: Oregon State, Washington State working on agreement with WCC for non-football sports

Under the agreement, selected Beavers and Cougars athletic teams will compete in the WCC as affiliate members, most notably the basketball teams.

sports.yahoo.com

Looking for non-football agreements

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I expected the MW partnership to expand to all sports. The WCC arrangement surprises me since the conference doesn't really like adding public schools.

At least one WCC school, Gonzaga, has one foot out the door, and indeed I have them involved in a geographic split of the Big East, with them and Saint Mary's becoming part of a new conference that also includes the Midwestern schools of the Big East and A-10, plus Detroit Mercy of the Horizon and Valparaiso of the MVC. The Big East would then add Duquesne, La Salle, and Saint Joseph's of the A-10 and Iona of the MAAC.

These events would significantly diminish the WCC, and make OSU and WSU think twice about the WCC partnership and look towards the MW instead.

 

[PCSPounder]

The B1G and the SEC make enough money to send their athletes all over the place. The b12 hasn’t demonstrated how they’ll align yet, and it’s telling that the Dallas home for Stanford and Cal was discussed in terms of the ACC.

The b12 supposedly didn’t want Gonzaga’s other sports. Gonzaga has made it clear that all sports need to be in play.

An eastern conference making basketball money- but no football money- can obviously fly from Boston to Chicago, the Big East handles Omaha, but Spokane is a whole other matter.

So I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Gonzaga joining the PAC-2 and the Mountain selects. Maybe St. Mary’s as well.

(I could go crazy into hybrid arrangements, but realism. Also heard a rumor about the far west non-football WAC schools and the WCC, but that sounds conditional.)

 

[KevFu]

I expected the MW partnership to expand to all sports. The WCC arrangement surprises me since the conference doesn't really like adding public schools.

At least one WCC school, Gonzaga, has one foot out the door, and indeed I have them involved in a geographic split of the Big East, with them and Saint Mary's becoming part of a new conference that also includes the Midwestern schools of the Big East and A-10, plus Detroit Mercy of the Horizon and Valparaiso of the MVC. The Big East would then add Duquesne, La Salle, and Saint Joseph's of the A-10 and Iona of the MAAC.

These events would significantly diminish the WCC, and make OSU and WSU think twice about the WCC partnership and look towards the MW instead.

There's no reason for the Big East to split by geography. The idea of "dueling basketball conferences" like that has been around for almost 50 years. The A-10 and the old MWCC were both created to be "rivals" to the Big East.

The MWCC was the "Midwest Big East" with Marquette, Xavier, Butler, Dayton, Saint Louis, Loyola, Detroit, and Evansville. The A-10 was always a one-sided "rivalry."

The BE had Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown (previously BC, Syracuse, Pitt). The A-10 had Rhode Island, Fordham, La Salle, St. Joe's, George Washington, (UMass, St. Bona, Duquesne) to match. The Big East added Xavier, DePaul and Marquette, the A-10 has Dayton. Loyola and Saint Louis...


It WOULD be awesome to have an EQUITABLE ZIPPER of two basketball conferences, like:

Big East (E) - Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, Richmond, Charleston
Big East (W) - St. Bona, Dayton, Detroit, Belmont, Loyola, Creighton

Great Midwest (E) - Rhode Island, St. John's, St. Joseph's, George Washington, VCU, Davidson
Great Midwest (W) - Duquesne, Xavier, Butler, Marquette, DePaul, St. Louis

But there's no reason for the "best 10" of them to split in half to invite schools who are less than them. As much as I hate the Big East strong-arm, they're not going to stop strong-arming.

 

[KevFu]

The B1G and the SEC make enough money to send their athletes all over the place. The b12 hasn’t demonstrated how they’ll align yet, and it’s telling that the Dallas home for Stanford and Cal was discussed in terms of the ACC.

The b12 supposedly didn’t want Gonzaga’s other sports. Gonzaga has made it clear that all sports need to be in play.

An eastern conference making basketball money- but no football money- can obviously fly from Boston to Chicago, the Big East handles Omaha, but Spokane is a whole other matter.

So I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Gonzaga joining the PAC-2 and the Mountain selects. Maybe St. Mary’s as well.

(I could go crazy into hybrid arrangements, but realism. Also heard a rumor about the far west non-football WAC schools and the WCC, but that sounds conditional.)

I still can't understand how anything other than a full merger of the Pac-12 and Mountain West (to be known as the Pac-12 going forward) is even be mathematically possible.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

There's no reason for the Big East to split by geography. The idea of "dueling basketball conferences" like that has been around for almost 50 years. The A-10 and the old MWCC were both created to be "rivals" to the Big East.

The MWCC was the "Midwest Big East" with Marquette, Xavier, Butler, Dayton, Saint Louis, Loyola, Detroit, and Evansville. The A-10 was always a one-sided "rivalry."

The BE had Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown (previously BC, Syracuse, Pitt). The A-10 had Rhode Island, Fordham, La Salle, St. Joe's, George Washington, (UMass, St. Bona, Duquesne) to match. The Big East added Xavier, DePaul and Marquette, the A-10 has Dayton. Loyola and Saint Louis...


It WOULD be awesome to have an EQUITABLE ZIPPER of two basketball conferences, like:

Big East (E) - Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, Richmond, Charleston
Big East (W) - St. Bona, Dayton, Detroit, Belmont, Loyola, Creighton

Great Midwest (E) - Rhode Island, St. John's, St. Joseph's, George Washington, VCU, Davidson
Great Midwest (W) - Duquesne, Xavier, Butler, Marquette, DePaul, St. Louis

But there's no reason for the "best 10" of them to split in half to invite schools who are less than them. As much as I hate the Big East strong-arm, they're not going to stop strong-arming.

The idea is to decrease the statutes of both the A-10 and the WCC

 

[PCSPounder]

The idea is to decrease the statutes of both the A-10 and the WCC

They have statutes? I mean… I think many of the schools in both conferences have law schools, so the notion of creating a set of laws the way business schools might encourage students to start up simulated businesses is interesting, but I do wonder how that lines up against existing jurisdictions.

Or, as the intended word comes to mind, like Providence really needs to do more damage to URI. Also, are you really getting a lot of recruits out west? Basketball ain’t football.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

They have statutes? I mean… I think many of the schools in both conferences have law schools, so the notion of creating a set of laws the way business schools might encourage students to start up simulated businesses is interesting, but I do wonder how that lines up against existing jurisdictions.

Or, as the intended word comes to mind, like Providence really needs to do more damage to URI. Also, are you really getting a lot of recruits out west? Basketball ain’t football.

I did mean statures. I was on mobile when I made the original post so it probably got auto corrected.

That new Midwestern basketball conference (with two WCC schools as well) is intended to be a Midwestern basketball conference of similar strength to the Big Ten and ESPN can use it to replace the Big Ten.

Iona is the most successful men's basketball program in MAAC history and seems like they are ready for an upgrade. The Big East splitting along geographic lines would give Iona that opportunity.

 

[PCSPounder]

I still can't understand how anything other than a full merger of the Pac-12 and Mountain West (to be known as the Pac-12 going forward) is even be mathematically possible.

Listen to the reporters at networks. Listen to the people who know those people.

Media is paying 85% for football. As they’re INCREASINGLY desperate for eyeballs and attention, the focus has changed. They want less blowouts; they want fans to stick to the games they start watching. They’re screaming for this.

The Mountain West is seriously unbalanced in this regard. New Mexico particularly sucks.
I’m virtually certain that OSU & WSU now have leverage to try to avoid blowouts… and get a little more money for that. IOW, while you might rightly question what will actually increase their take, it’s become increasingly obvious that the merger you want is the lowest $ solution. And they might be fighting for a difference of no more than $3 million per school (or $5M per the pertinent two schools.

 

[KevFu]

Listen to the reporters at networks. Listen to the people who know those people.

Media is paying 85% for football. As they’re INCREASINGLY desperate for eyeballs and attention, the focus has changed. They want less blowouts; they want fans to stick to the games they start watching. They’re screaming for this.

The Mountain West is seriously unbalanced in this regard. New Mexico particularly sucks.
I’m virtually certain that OSU & WSU now have leverage to try to avoid blowouts… and get a little more money for that. IOW, while you might rightly question what will actually increase their take, it’s become increasingly obvious that the merger you want is the lowest $ solution. And they might be fighting for a difference of no more than $3 million per school (or $5M per the pertinent two schools.

It's not the merger I want. I get why merging with the MWC isn't their most appealing option. I'm saying that I don't see how it's mathematically possible or realistic to pull off anything BUT merging with the MWC.

I understand that they don't want Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii. Utah State, or Nevada because they're bad ROI in terms of giving them a share of TV money when they don't bring eyeballs for how how small their markets are relative to how good their programs are.

I'm saying that trying to build a conference of just the absolute "Best Of" the G5, by football and by market... the choices put to the other groups of schools being invited is 50/50 at best, and therefore once you consider exit fees, not enough to entice them.


Say the Pac-12 invites Memphis, UTSA, North Texas, Tulane, UAB and FAU to be the "East Division" with WSU/OSU and four MWC schools. Those six AAC schools are deciding between WSU, OSU, Boise St, Fresno St, SDSU and UNLV or Air Force (roughly 8-10 million people in their markets)...

Versus staying with Rice (Houston market), Temple (Philly market), South Florida (Tampa market), and Army, Navy, ECU and Tulsa (roughly 20 million total). Yeah, the new Pac-12 West Division is better at football than those guys, but the invitees would think "WE'D WIN vs those bad teams, AND we'd do it in better time slots (11am ET instead of 9 pm ET)... so unless you're offering a TON MORE MONEY..."

So (A) how is the Pac-12 gonna offer more money with the population & time slot difference? (B) The AAC invitees would need $60 million over six years just to offset the EXIT FEE.

It's very similar to the Houston/NHL expansion problem in the 1990s: The City of Houston wanted the NHL to pick an owner so they'd know whom to build an arena with; the NHL wanted an owner with an arena deal... so nothing happened.

TV Networks can't make an offer to the Pac-12 until they know who's in the conference; and schools can't accept an invite to the Pac-12 until they can do the math on TV deals vs Exit fees. So how can anything happen?

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

With my proposed conference game schedule format for the Big 12 I've given geographic names to each of the pods as such:

Central: Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
East: Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia
Texas: Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
West: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah

I've also proposed that each winner of in-pod play within the respective pods be tied to a specific Big 12 bowl, provided they are eligible and not in the CFP:

Central: Liberty
East: Pop-Tarts
Texas: Alamo
West: Guaranteed Rate

These would be the first bowls in the Big 12 selection order after the CFP.

 

[Kirk Van Houten]

Report: WSU, OSU ink deal to broadcast home football games on The CW

The last piece of the "where can I watch the Cougs?" puzzle appears to be in place.

www.cougcenter.com

They found a tv network

 

[GKJ]

Report: WSU, OSU ink deal to broadcast home football games on The CW

The last piece of the "where can I watch the Cougs?" puzzle appears to be in place.

www.cougcenter.com

They found a tv network

Good bit of business.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Better than Apple TV at least.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

My proposal for the Big East to split into two conferences along geographic lines would also keep the number of March Madness autobids at 32.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

So, with my proposed schedule format for the Big Ten of 5 protected conference games and 3 rotating games on an 8-year schedule, here are the games I think should be protected:

Illinois: Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Indiana: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue
Iowa: Minnesota, Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin
Maryland: Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, USC
Michigan: Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Michigan State: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Minnesota: Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin
Nebraska: Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin
Northwestern: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, UCLA, USC
Ohio State: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers
Oregon: Iowa, Nebraska, UCLA, USC, Washington
Penn State: Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Rutgers
Purdue: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers
Rutgers: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA
UCLA: Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers, USC, Washington
USC: Maryland, Northwestern, Oregon, UCLA, Washington
Washington: Iowa, Nebraska, Oregon, UCLA, USC
Wisconsin: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska

These would also be the protected matchups for basketball as I have proposed the Big Ten go to 22 conference games in the sport, which would lead all D1 conferences. 10 of the games would be home-and-homes with the protected opponents, with the other 12 games being against the remaining conference teams, 6 each home and road, alternating locations every year.

 

[PCSPounder]

It doesn’t sound like the Pac-2 will get enough scratch to be able to, say, hold out unpaid in the b12 for 7 years.

But there’s a different oddball rumor out here. Since we’re relying on what Oregon State is telling the world, it’s probably less than 50-50 odds. But Pac-2 + MWC + WCC is a thing that’s been slipped into a discussion.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

It doesn’t sound like the Pac-2 will get enough scratch to be able to, say, hold out unpaid in the b12 for 7 years.

But there’s a different oddball rumor out here. Since we’re relying on what Oregon State is telling the world, it’s probably less than 50-50 odds. But Pac-2 + MWC + WCC is a thing that’s been slipped into a discussion.

How many teams is that?

 

[PCSPounder]

How many teams is that?

340 teams.

That’s in the sponsored sports among the 3 conferences involved. Or, more simply, among 22 base schools, as well as 5 associate members (notably including Hawaii football, the others in not-so-major sports).

I went with the number-of-overall-teams silliness for reasons. Thing is, WCC schools had discussed promotion and relegation in basketball with the Big West, and Boise State had proposed pro/rel to add incentive to OSU and WSU. That might be part of the discussion here, because it’s not hard to imagine OSU and WSU… and Boise State football and Gonzaga basketball… wanting an improved strength of schedule over current membership. There’s more than just two sports in play where schools would want to use something like this to improve their tournament chances.