Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[Buffdog]

Yup, points are points at the end of the day. The Jets have been more of a pp scoring team then a 5 on 5 team this year. In past years it has been different. If your going to point out Perfetti's pp production then we should be doing the same for all of our top 6.

Maybe we should be celebrating that we have a player talented enough that he can make our second pp unit very dangerous. Most teams would be killing for that.

Yeah, I don't understand the hard-on people have for 5v5 numbers

Yes, most of the game is played 5v5 and most goals are scored 5v5, but goals are scored at a higher rate on the PP. We saw last year what a shit PP can do to a team

People on here value 5v5 numbers over overall numbers, shot attempts over actual goals, etc... but at the end of the day, it's the scoreboard that counts

 

[surixon]

Yeah, I don't understand the hard-on people have for 5v5 numbers

Yes, most of the game is played 5v5 and most goals are scored 5v5, but goals are scored at a higher rate on the PP. We saw last year what a shit PP can do to a team

People on here value 5v5 numbers over overall numbers, shot attempts over actual goals, etc... but at the end of the day, it's the scoreboard that counts

He's also 5th on the team in 5 on 5 and ES scoring. You want more 5 on 5 and ES scoring give him more minutes.

I think people need to understand that this team has been constructed to have one powerhouse offensive line that has the green light, and then two two-way outscoring lines that are counted on to defend just as well as score. Context matters. It takes time to learn how to score while not being allowed to cheat for offense. He's coming along just fine there with the bulk of his points lately coming in 5 on 5 and ES situations.

 

[Krauser]

God bless the Jets powerplay

Perfetti runs the 2nd unit of the Jets powerplay, and (IMO) is easily the best offensive player on that unit.

He has 5 goals and 13 points on the powerplay this year, most of that on the 2nd unit. By rate, he's 7th in the league in points/60 at 5-on-4 (at 8.25), and 22nd in goals/60 at 5-on-4 (at 4.17). Those are elite numbers, especially considering who he's playing with.

Ehlers' numbers on the powerplay for the past few years, mostly on the 2nd unit like Cole this year:
2023-24: 0 goals, 7 points, 0 G/60, 2.41 P/60
2022-23: 3 goals, 11 points, 1.47 G/60, 3.92 P/60
2021-22: 2 goals, 7 points, 1.6 G/60, 3.25 P/60
2020-21: 6 goals, 13 points, 4.77 G/60, 10.34 P/60
2019-20: 3 goals, 5 points, 2.04 G/60, 3.4 P/60

...so Perfetti this year is easily outproducing 2nd-unit-driver Ehlers' last 5 years as a whole, and outproducing him in any single season except for the Covid year, which was a small sample size (Ehlers played only 47 games) in the all-Canadian division.

 

[DRW204]

Perfetti runs the 2nd unit of the Jets powerplay, and (IMO) is easily the best offensive player on that unit.

He has 5 goals and 13 points on the powerplay this year, most of that on the 2nd unit. By rate, he's 7th in the league in points/60 at 5-on-4 (at 8.25), and 22nd in goals/60 at 5-on-4 (at 4.17). Those are elite numbers, especially considering who he's playing with.

Ehlers' numbers on the powerplay for the past few years, mostly on the 2nd unit like Cole this year:
2023-24: 0 goals, 7 points, 0 G/60, 2.41 P/60
2022-23: 3 goals, 11 points, 1.47 G/60, 3.92 P/60
2021-22: 2 goals, 7 points, 1.6 G/60, 3.25 P/60
2020-21: 6 goals, 13 points, 4.77 G/60, 10.34 P/60
2019-20: 3 goals, 5 points, 2.04 G/60, 3.4 P/60

...so Perfetti this year is easily outproducing 2nd-unit-driver Ehlers' last 5 years as a whole, and outproducing him in any single season except for the Covid year, which was a small sample size (Ehlers played only 47 games) in the all-Canadian division.

Both Jets units have been clicking at elite paces. They have 7 players in the top 20 for PP rates which I think speaks to the new PP structure they have (last time I checked which was last week: Jets Advanced Stats thread)

Idk how representative or transferrable these PP rates would be on another team, structure for instance. Like if you put X Jets player on Y team, are they scoring at 8+ pts/60 this year? Look at the YoY changes with the new staff for the levels of improvement... It's not even transferrable on the same roster of players.

I'm old enough to remember certain players on this board getting shitted on for being to PP or Empty Net dependent in their totals. But just ignore it here? His 5v5 production rate is closer to Mason Appleton than Ehlers, which is usually used as a stat or indicator of depth chart slotting or level (ie: 1st line fwd, 2nd line fwd etc). Yet, OP above mentions he's a first line scorer on a second line TOI, I disagree with that.

edit: you can actually do the same comparison for most Jets players in pp pts/60...
ie: last 5 years
scheifele has been a 4.6-5.6 PP Pts/60
connor: 4.6-6.3 PP Pts/60

both are now near top of the league.

this year's PP is on another level, and if you're on it you're scoring points. they deserve their props of course, i don't know if you can just pluck a player & their PP rate this year, and expect the same things on a different team.

I think people need to understand that this team has been constructed to have one powerhouse offensive line that has the green light, and then two two-way outscoring lines that are counted on to defend just as well as score. Context matters. It takes time to learn how to score while not being allowed to cheat for offense. He's coming along just fine there with the bulk of his points lately coming in 5 on 5 and ES situations.

The second line has potential to be pretty close to the first in goals net of TOI. Problem is they have two Forwards who are inconsistent and unreliable in scoring.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

I’m one of his interviews he says he learning to use his smaller size to his advantage. Not sure what he means by that but I thinks he has improved his lower body strength and likely rolls off players better puck battles

 

[Gm0ney]

I’m one of his interviews he says he learning to use his smaller size to his advantage. Not sure what he means by that but I thinks he has improved his lower body strength and likely rolls off players better puck battles

He can fit into nooks and crannies that the big guys don't even know about!

 

[ps241]

12 points in the last 10 games.

Keep it rolling Fetts.

 

[raideralex99]

Wow interesting stats and to think some people wanted the Jets to trade Perfetti and people wonder why Buffalo has not made the playoffs in decades.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

Wow interesting stats and to think some people wanted the Jets to trade Perfetti and people wonder why Buffalo has not made the playoffs in decades.
View attachment 994448

This is all very interesting, but what we all really want to know is……why is his nickname L’il Jimmy??!!

 

[robertocarlos]

It's a good thing they didn't trade him.

 

[NA Hockey]

17 points in his last 19 games.

42 points in 68 games overall.

One of only 3 players in the top 175 of NHL scoring that receives less than 15 mins a night of average ice time.

 

[Krauser]

Hmm, this thread cooled off since January…

Points in the Jets last 21 games (2 months ago, including the last part of Perfetti’s midseason drought):
25 Connor
22 Scheifele
20 Vilardi
19 Ehlers
17 Perfetti
13 Namestnikov
12 Morrissey
10 Samberg
7 Iafallo, DeMelo, Pionk
etc

Perfetti’s production in part comes on the powerplay, as the main driver of PP2. 5v4 points production over the past 21 games:
7 Connor
6 Ehlers, Vilardi
5 Perfetti, Scheifele
4 Morrissey
3 Niederreiter, Namestnikov
2 Pionk
1 Iafallo
…note that one player on PP2 is producing like he’s on PP1, given less than half the ice time (23:27 for Perfetti at 5v4, vs an average of just over 50 minutes for the forwards on PP1)

Looking at 5v5 points only, over the same 21 game stretch:
14 Scheifele
13 Connor, Vilardi
10 Ehlers
9 Samberg
8 Perfetti
7 Namestnikov, DeMelo
6 Morrissey
etc

Perfetti’s 5v5 P/60 in those 21 games is 1.78. Ehlers’ is 2.25.
Just for a completely random comparison, Appleton’s 5v5 P/60 over that time is 0.88.

Perfetti leads the Jets in CF% over the last 21 games (58.17%), and is 5th among the regulars in xGF% (62.8%), behind Barron, Iafallo, Ehlers and Namestnikov.

Some fans like to compare Perfetti to Jarvis and Lundell from the same draft class. Their boxscore stats this year:
Jarvis (60 games, ATOI 19:34): 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points, +6
Lundell (67 games, ATOI 16:40): 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points, +17
Perfetti (68 games, ATOI 14:56): 14 goals, 28 assists, 42 points, +19

…

Anyone who wrote Cole Perfetti off during his slump a few months ago may want to update that opinion. For the past 2 months, he’s producing as a top 6 forward, while getting 3rd line icetime and about a minute of powerplay time per game.

I think Perfetti is doing a lot to drive the production of his line, and of his powerplay unit. He’s forchecking and stripping pucks. He’s shielding to maintain possession, cycling down low, and using his vision to find passing lanes and set up scoring chances. He’s making smart reads in the defensive zone, and finding outlets for zone exits. He still has a muffin of a shot but he’s going to the net and getting tips and rebounds. And his game looks like it will translate to the playoffs — he’s not coming out of the lineup this year.

 

[surixon]

Hmm, this thread cooled off since January…

Points in the Jets last 21 games (2 months ago, including the last part of Perfetti’s midseason drought):
25 Connor
22 Scheifele
20 Vilardi
19 Ehlers
17 Perfetti
13 Namestnikov
12 Morrissey
10 Samberg
7 Iafallo, DeMelo, Pionk
etc

Perfetti’s production in part comes on the powerplay, as the main driver of PP2. 5v4 points production over the past 21 games:
7 Connor
6 Ehlers, Vilardi
5 Perfetti, Scheifele
4 Morrissey
3 Niederreiter, Namestnikov
2 Pionk
1 Iafallo
…note that one player on PP2 is producing like he’s on PP1, given less than half the ice time (23:27 for Perfetti at 5v4, vs an average of just over 50 minutes for the forwards on PP1)

Looking at 5v5 points only, over the same 21 game stretch:
14 Scheifele
13 Connor, Vilardi
10 Ehlers
9 Samberg
8 Perfetti
7 Namestnikov, DeMelo
6 Morrissey
etc

Perfetti’s 5v5 P/60 in those 21 games is 1.78. Ehlers’ is 2.25.
Just for a completely random comparison, Appleton’s 5v5 P/60 over that time is 0.88.

Perfetti leads the Jets in CF% over the last 21 games (58.17%), and is 5th among the regulars in xGF% (62.8%), behind Barron, Iafallo, Ehlers and Namestnikov.

Some fans like to compare Perfetti to Jarvis and Lundell from the same draft class. Their boxscore stats this year:
Jarvis (60 games, ATOI 19:34): 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points, +6
Lundell (67 games, ATOI 16:40): 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points, +17
Perfetti (68 games, ATOI 14:56): 14 goals, 28 assists, 42 points, +19

…

Anyone who wrote Cole Perfetti off during his slump a few months ago may want to update that opinion. For the past 2 months, he’s producing as a top 6 forward, while getting 3rd line icetime and about a minute of powerplay time per game.

I think Perfetti is doing a lot to drive the production of his line, and of his powerplay unit. He’s forchecking and stripping pucks. He’s shielding to maintain possession, cycling down low, and using his vision to find passing lanes and set up scoring chances. He’s making smart reads in the defensive zone, and finding outlets for zone exits. He still has a muffin of a shot but he’s going to the net and getting tips and rebounds. And his game looks like it will translate to the playoffs — he’s not coming out of the lineup this year.

The main difference between him and the players you compared him to is ice time. You give him legitimate top 6 ice time and he's right there with Jarvis imo. Usage plays a much bigger role then people think.

 

[Jet]

I don't think i wrote him off but I was definitely concerned about a consecutive mid season swoon. So happy that he found a way to play through it.

Now we have to find a way to get sir Nino and the third line scoring again.

 

[JetsUK]

Hmm, this thread cooled off since January…

Points in the Jets last 21 games (2 months ago, including the last part of Perfetti’s midseason drought):
25 Connor
22 Scheifele
20 Vilardi
19 Ehlers
17 Perfetti
13 Namestnikov
12 Morrissey
10 Samberg
7 Iafallo, DeMelo, Pionk
etc

Perfetti’s production in part comes on the powerplay, as the main driver of PP2. 5v4 points production over the past 21 games:
7 Connor
6 Ehlers, Vilardi
5 Perfetti, Scheifele
4 Morrissey
3 Niederreiter, Namestnikov
2 Pionk
1 Iafallo
…note that one player on PP2 is producing like he’s on PP1, given less than half the ice time (23:27 for Perfetti at 5v4, vs an average of just over 50 minutes for the forwards on PP1)

Looking at 5v5 points only, over the same 21 game stretch:
14 Scheifele
13 Connor, Vilardi
10 Ehlers
9 Samberg
8 Perfetti
7 Namestnikov, DeMelo
6 Morrissey
etc

Perfetti’s 5v5 P/60 in those 21 games is 1.78. Ehlers’ is 2.25.
Just for a completely random comparison, Appleton’s 5v5 P/60 over that time is 0.88.

Perfetti leads the Jets in CF% over the last 21 games (58.17%), and is 5th among the regulars in xGF% (62.8%), behind Barron, Iafallo, Ehlers and Namestnikov.

Some fans like to compare Perfetti to Jarvis and Lundell from the same draft class. Their boxscore stats this year:
Jarvis (60 games, ATOI 19:34): 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points, +6
Lundell (67 games, ATOI 16:40): 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points, +17
Perfetti (68 games, ATOI 14:56): 14 goals, 28 assists, 42 points, +19

…

Anyone who wrote Cole Perfetti off during his slump a few months ago may want to update that opinion. For the past 2 months, he’s producing as a top 6 forward, while getting 3rd line icetime and about a minute of powerplay time per game.

I think Perfetti is doing a lot to drive the production of his line, and of his powerplay unit. He’s forchecking and stripping pucks. He’s shielding to maintain possession, cycling down low, and using his vision to find passing lanes and set up scoring chances. He’s making smart reads in the defensive zone, and finding outlets for zone exits. He still has a muffin of a shot but he’s going to the net and getting tips and rebounds. And his game looks like it will translate to the playoffs — he’s not coming out of the lineup this year.

Brilliant post and analysis — as a longtime Peefetti believer I’m as delighted with this stretch of play as I am unsurprised by it.

At every level we’ve seen Perfetti start slow, experience a few bumps and headwinds, then adapt and excel.

And here we are, hopefully in the middle of a long, steady upswing. Lovely jubbly.