Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[Buffdog]

Just came across an interesting stat on twitter. According to natural stat trick Perfetti is third in the entire NHL over the last three years in Goals for % for players that have played at least 2000 mins 5 on 5.

That's encouraging... but he also gets butter-soft matchups and has Helle behind him

 

[NA Hockey]

That's encouraging... but he also gets butter-soft matchups and has Helle behind him

Agree it is a good sign. True enough but the whole team has Helle behind them. Maybe it indicates he could handle some tougher matchups. If you have great numbers in one circumstance perhaps you get more to see if that continues?

 

[DRW204]

Seems like the team could use a little mixing around in the middle 6 (possibly bottom 9). Last game might have been the first entry into that with moving Lowry with Ehlers.

As this is a Perfetti thread IMO Perfetti needs to start producing some more offense, but personally I've not thought it was his play, but rather the line not clicking. Let's see if a little line blender will spark anything.

this season he's definitely played with a bit more jam or physicality in my view. however, we're not talking the 2nd coming as some rugged or imposing power-forward here. but still def a step up in engagement.
he still needs to be scoring as a top6er as you said, 1 goal 6 pts in last 20 gp. half the pts came in 1 game too.

 

[Gm0ney]

That's encouraging... but he also gets butter-soft matchups and has Helle behind him

I wouldn't say Perfetti gets butter-soft matchups. Line 2 gets sheltered from other teams' top lines mainly because Arniel (and Bones and Maurice) preferentially sends out L3 against the opposition L1. But they're not sheltering them from L2 or anything (the 4th line tends to get sheltered from the opponent's L1 and L2).

 

[Buffdog]

I wouldn't say Perfetti gets butter-soft matchups. Line 2 gets sheltered from other teams' top lines mainly because Arniel (and Bones and Maurice) preferentially sends out L3 against the opposition L1. But they're not sheltering them from L2 or anything (the 4th line tends to get sheltered from the opponent's L1 and L2).

I think they're rarely out vs other teams top 6. Lowry and Schief take those matchups

 

[Jets 31]

I honestly thought Perfetti would have a productive season points wise this year but it hasn't really happened so far. I will say that he plays a smart game and works hard but man it would be great for him and the team if he could get the scoring up. 29-12-3 and having a great season as a team so it's not hurting us but imagine how good this team would be with more production from Perfetti .

 

[AtomicJets]

I'm sure it's been mentioned already but Perfetti is pointless in his last 9 and pointless in 32 of 44 games overall. 16 of his 23 points came in 5 multi-point games. I can't explain why that is. I still believe in him long term, he is only 23 and has had many moments of brilliance but the offence just seems to disappear at times. Whatever the reason is, you need to score more than that to play in the top six. Some time in the bottom six playing with different players might get him going. Kupari and Nino bring a different style than Vlad and Ehlers.

 

[Whileee]

That's encouraging... but he also gets butter-soft matchups and has Helle behind him

Perfetti's offense dries up at times (though he seems to hit a lot of posts), but his defensive play is solid, after adjusting for usage, etc.

 

[Buffdog]

Perfetti's offense dries up at times (though he seems to hit a lot of posts), but his defensive play is solid, after adjusting for usage, etc.

Does that adjust for quality of competition?

 

[Whileee]

Does that adjust for quality of competition?

Yes. So does this.

 

[voyageur]

Yes. So does this. View attachment 960542

What's the comparable stats for Namestnikov, who has very similar numbers over the same period played? The one thing about Perfetti is I'd say he is replaceable by Chibrikov or Lambert in the lineup if the Jets change their top 9 look. Center is the harder position to play, with probably greater quality of opponents as the West has some good ones.

I'd also wonder about a scenario where the Jets call up Chibrikov, and run Perfetti-Namestnikov-Chibrikov behind Lowry-Ehlers, with maybe Nino on the 2nd line, and Iafallo back on the 4th. I think all 4 lines would have good metrics. Where you shuffle the cards a little with Appleton still not skating. Appleton has been mostly 3rd unit PK this year, Gustafsson for whatever reason, maybe speed, hasn't really been out there, and Toninato is enjoying his time on the big club, and usually produces decent results, but knows his role.

 

[Whileee]

What's the comparable stats for Namestnikov, who has very similar numbers over the same period played? The one thing about Perfetti is I'd say he is replaceable by Chibrikov or Lambert in the lineup if the Jets change their top 9 look. Center is the harder position to play, with probably greater quality of opponents as the West has some good ones.

I'd also wonder about a scenario where the Jets call up Chibrikov, and run Perfetti-Namestnikov-Chibrikov behind Lowry-Ehlers, with maybe Nino on the 2nd line, and Iafallo back on the 4th. I think all 4 lines would have good metrics. Where you shuffle the cards a little with Appleton still not skating. Appleton has been mostly 3rd unit PK this year, Gustafsson for whatever reason, maybe speed, hasn't really been out there, and Toninato is enjoying his time on the big club, and usually produces decent results, but knows his role.

Perfetti and Namestnikov have been fairly comparable, but Perfetti is just entering prime years and likely to increase his impact.

I'm upbeat about Lambert and Chibrikov too, but remember that Perfetti was a much higher end prospect when drafted and was a leader on the Moose in points/game as an 18 and 19 year old. He's had some bad luck finishing with a ton of posts, but I really like Perfetti and I'm fairly confident that he'll be a strong two-way forward if he plays with strong and compatible linemates.

What's the comparable stats for Namestnikov, who has very similar numbers over the same period played? The one thing about Perfetti is I'd say he is replaceable by Chibrikov or Lambert in the lineup if the Jets change their top 9 look. Center is the harder position to play, with probably greater quality of opponents as the West has some good ones.

I'd also wonder about a scenario where the Jets call up Chibrikov, and run Perfetti-Namestnikov-Chibrikov behind Lowry-Ehlers, with maybe Nino on the 2nd line, and Iafallo back on the 4th. I think all 4 lines would have good metrics. Where you shuffle the cards a little with Appleton still not skating. Appleton has been mostly 3rd unit PK this year, Gustafsson for whatever reason, maybe speed, hasn't really been out there, and Toninato is enjoying his time on the big club, and usually produces decent results, but knows his role.

I like the idea of shaking up the middle 6. I've advocated for Ehlers with Lowry for some time, because I think it boosts both of them.

 

[DRW204]

Namestnikov better than Perfetti offensively, ok

 

[NA Hockey]

100th NHL point with his second assist tonight

 

[GaryinPrague]

i just realized we could of had Seth Jarvis instead, why dont we ever pick Winnipegers?

 

[jokesondee]

i just realized we could of had Seth Jarvis instead, why dont we ever pick Winnipegers?

Yeah its like Chevy is allergic to it.

 

[voyageur]

Yeah its like Chevy is allergic to it.

I think @KingBogo spoke about this in a way that made sense. You have all your family and friends here, it's more outside distraction, and with the 6 degrees of separation you can't move the same way in a market where what you do gets around.

I think the team as is becomes a family. Because they all come from the outside.

Then you look at the result Manitobans have had here. Fehr was a massive underachiever. Eakin wasn't too happy about living in his parents house again. Had a good regular season finish but disappeared in the playoffs.

Maybe the Jets are better off without Manitobans, strange to say, and growing up in Manitoba, you dream bigger than staying here.

 

[sipowicz]

Perfetan;

one goal since Dec 1, 2024

three goals since Nov 3, 2024

Just not good enough, the $3.5 M holdout, what a joke!

 

[Adam da bomb]

Perfetan;

one goal since Dec 1, 2024

three goals since Nov 3, 2024

Just not good enough, the $3.5 M holdout, what a joke!

Hopefully he can keep those numbers till after we sign him then improve.

 

[DRW204]

Hopefully he can keep those numbers till after we sign him then improve.

And in the meantime Jets trade 1sts and 2nds for rental top6ers

 

[Krauser]

Perfetan;

three goals since Nov 3, 2024

Jets are up 26-13 in goals at 5v5 with Perfetti on the ice since November 3rd.

His 66.67% GF% is tied for 12th (with Joel Eriksson Ek and Nino Niederreiter) in the NHL over that span, among the 569 skaters who've played at least 300 minutes at 5v5.

Over the past 2+ months, Perfetti has one of the lower individual shooting percentages in the league for any forward at 5v5. His shot% is 5.26%, tied for 32nd lowest of 365 forwards who've played at least 300 minutes at 5v5. That's the 3rd worst on the Jets (behind Barron and Iafallo), but there are some other good scoring forwards who've been shooting even worse at 5v5, including Zegras (1 goal on a 3.13% shooting percentage), Barzal (2 goals on 4.08%) and Crosby (4 goals on 4.3%).

Coming into this season, Perfetti's career 5v5 shooting percentage was basically average -- 9.09% on a much bigger sample size (over 1600 minutes). That's a slightly better shooting percentage as Granlund (9.05%), DeBrincat (9.02%), and Brady Tkachuk (8.95%) across those 3 seasons (2021-24).

So the odds are good that Perfetti is about an average shooter who's been in a slump, or on a run of bad luck. If he'd been shooting at his usual rate since November, he'd have an additional 3 goals at 5v5. When his shooting percentage bounces back, so will his production.

 

[NA Hockey]

Perfetan;

one goal since Dec 1, 2024

three goals since Nov 3, 2024

Just not good enough, the $3.5 M holdout, what a joke!

You keep going on about him holding out. Are you being obtuse or just trying to bash?

His contract ran out on July 1st last summer. He was a restricted free agent. He did not have a contract. The team and his camp negotiated until they agreed on a contract. You have to have a contract to hold from, to be a "holdout". Any person would negotiate to get the best they can get, which he and the team did in good faith.

I suspect his shooting percentage will regress to the mean and we will see a spike in goals.

I love the Perfetan lol it's your thing but there really is no comparison

Petan - 170 games, 35 total points

Time to 100 points:
Perfetti - 185 games to 100 points
Connor - 178 games to 100 points
Scheifel - 173 games to 100 points
Ehlers - 159 games to 100 points

Maybe you should call him Perfele or Perfonner or Perflers given he is substantially closer to those three in production than Petan at the beginning of all of their careers.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

I think @KingBogo spoke about this in a way that made sense. You have all your family and friends here, it's more outside distraction, and with the 6 degrees of separation you can't move the same way in a market where what you do gets around.

I think the team as is becomes a family. Because they all come from the outside.

Then you look at the result Manitobans have had here. Fehr was a massive underachiever. Eakin wasn't too happy about living in his parents house again. Had a good regular season finish but disappeared in the playoffs.

Maybe the Jets are better off without Manitobans, strange to say, and growing up in Manitoba, you dream bigger than staying here.

Maybe, but as a Jets fan, my heart really wants to cheer for a kid from Riverton or Flin Flon!

 

[DRW204]

Some of the same criticisms, drawbacks, and uncontextulized use of regular +/- are creeping up with 5v5 goal differential. I guess it's all good with 5v5 bc those are the hip trendy stats

Saw it in the Stanley thread, and now here.

Jets are up 26-13 in goals at 5v5 with Perfetti on the ice since November 3rd.

His 66.67% GF% is tied for 12th (with Joel Eriksson Ek and Nino Niederreiter) in the NHL over that span, among the 569 skaters who've played at least 300 minutes at 5v5.

Over the past 2+ months, Perfetti has one of the lower individual shooting percentages in the league for any forward at 5v5. His shot% is 5.26%, tied for 32nd lowest of 365 forwards who've played at least 300 minutes at 5v5. That's the 3rd worst on the Jets (behind Barron and Iafallo), but there are some other good scoring forwards who've been shooting even worse at 5v5, including Zegras (1 goal on a 3.13% shooting percentage), Barzal (2 goals on 4.08%) and Crosby (4 goals on 4.3%).

Coming into this season, Perfetti's career 5v5 shooting percentage was basically average -- 9.09% on a much bigger sample size (over 1600 minutes). That's a slightly better shooting percentage as Granlund (9.05%), DeBrincat (9.02%), and Brady Tkachuk (8.95%) across those 3 seasons (2021-24).

So the odds are good that Perfetti is about an average shooter who's been in a slump, or on a run of bad luck. If he'd been shooting at his usual rate since November, he'd have an additional 3 goals at 5v5. When his shooting percentage bounces back, so will his production.

 

[Gm0ney]

You keep going on about him holding out. Are you being obtuse or just trying to bash?

His contract ran out on July 1st last summer. He was a restricted free agent. He did not have a contract. The team and his camp negotiated until they agreed on a contract. You have to have a contract to hold from, to be a "holdout". Any person would negotiate to get the best they can get, which he and the team did in good faith.

I suspect his shooting percentage will regress to the mean and we will see a spike in goals.

I love the Perfetan lol it's your thing but there really is no comparison

Petan - 170 games, 35 total points

Time to 100 points:
Perfetti - 185 games to 100 points
Connor - 178 games to 100 points
Scheifel - 173 games to 100 points
Ehlers - 159 games to 100 points

Maybe you should call him Perfele or Perfonner or Perflers given he is substantially closer to those three in production than Petan at the beginning of all of their careers.

Nic Petan was on pace to hit 100 points in his 486th NHL game.