Cole Caufield: Is this the year?

[Sorinth]

Here are the arguments I’ve heard:

1. ‘But Caufield said he needs to shoot more from in close.’

2. ‘I don’t know.’

Neither of those are valid.

Provide me with something plausible and we can discuss it. Please give me an alternative good reason why a player who just had surgery would suddenly see his shooting percentage plummet to extreme outlier levels.

Give me a reason besides the two that have come before and I’ll listen.

For the record I do think Caufield's shooting percentage will bounce back this year and we'll see numerous 35+ goals seasons over his career. But this is now the 2nd time Caufield has gone ice cold for half a season, it was easy to dismiss the first time because he was a rookie and Ducharme wasn't a good coach, but we also have to acknowledge that he might just be a guy who goes on crazy hot and crazy cold streaks.

 

[Habs]

Demidov will help many players stats. 5 on 5 or PP.

and Martone! We can dream right? Win the lotto... I can feel it

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

For the record I do think Caufield's shooting percentage will bounce back this year and we'll see numerous 35+ goals seasons over his career. But this is now the 2nd time Caufield has gone ice cold for half a season, it was easy to dismiss the first time because he was a rookie and Ducharme wasn't a good coach, but we also have to acknowledge that he might just be a guy who goes on crazy hot and crazy cold streaks.

It doesn’t seem like it but we’re dealing with a really small sample size.

The Ducharme piece is explainable. He simply wasn’t playing well. Some of that is coaching and linemates, some of it is overtime and opportunity… but the numbers weren’t there. That hasn’t been the case since. His numbers have done nothing but improve. He should’ve scored at least 40 last year. He was ultra consistent in the minors. Ultra consistent under MSL. All of a sudden he stopped scoring despite improving numbers.

It doesn’t make sense for a guy of his talent to put up those kinds of shot numbers and not score. But it makes perfect sense when you factor in that doctors have said it’s a three year recovery period.

Again, yeah he was healthy enough to play. But that doesn’t mean he played at 100 percent.

I say 35 this year and hope for more. But I don’t know enough about that surgery to say if his shot will ever be as good as it was. It’s supposed to be 100 percent after three years but…. ???

 

[Ozmodiar]

For the record I do think Caufield's shooting percentage will bounce back this year and we'll see numerous 35+ goals seasons over his career. But this is now the 2nd time Caufield has gone ice cold for half a season, it was easy to dismiss the first time because he was a rookie and Ducharme wasn't a good coach, but we also have to acknowledge that he might just be a guy who goes on crazy hot and crazy cold streaks.

Yes, he certainly needs to be more consistent.

 

[SlafySZN]

Not quite the truth.

I pointed out CC and MSL stated he needed to get in closer, what they called the “paint” because that’s where the better scoring opportunities are. His shot would be more effective. In addition, he also stated his shoulder was 100%.

However, you know more about CCs shoulder, and what he/MSL believe will improve his goal output.

Even out of the players mouth, you know better. Silly to say the least.

Of course they are lying, lol.

Man, it’s really not that hard to understand that the shoulder could of been 100% but he needed to get used to shoot and play on it again. You’re not gonna be in top form if you haven’t been able to shoot for months or practice your shot during a normal off season after getting a surgery. It takes time to get comfortable again.

 

[Habby4Life]

It's my understanding (per the previous poster you were discussing with) that MSL and Caufield themselves said he hadn't been dealing with an injury this year and that he was 100%. If that's the case and you're still dismissing that out of hand, there's nothing that anyone can say that's going to convince you otherwise - not that it's what I'm even particularly trying to do, just saying that dismissing it is kind of silly.

You can’t have a convo with him. He’s right, there is no other alternative reason. Even CC and MSL are wrong

Shit, if CC says his shoulder is 100% and states he&msl believe his goal output will increase if he gets closer to the net, as he stated the “paint” where his shot will be more effective, I’m inclined to believe they know better than a HF poster? But maybe CC&MSL don’t understand the situation quite like Lafleurs. I guess that’s a possibility.

Silly it is!

Man, it’s really not that hard to understand that the shoulder could of been 100% but he needed to get used to shoot and play on it again. You’re not gonna be in top form if you haven’t been able to shoot for months or practice your shot during a normal off season after getting a surgery. It takes time to get comfortable again.

And it’s quite viable to believe what he and his coach think the problem is and what it is not.

I’ll go with those two over random hf guy. Shit straight from the horses mouth isn’t viable nowadays

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You can’t have a convo with him. He’s right, there is no other alternative reason. Even CC and MSL are wrong

Shit, if CC says his shoulder is 100% and states he&msl believe his goal output will increase if he gets closer to the net, as he stated the “paint” where his shot will be more effective, I’m inclined to believe they know better than a HF poster? But maybe CC&MSL don’t understand the situation quite like Lafleurs. I guess that’s a possibility.

Silly it is!

No player has ever lied about their health.

Ever.

Every player discloses everything to everyone, especially the press.

No, really….

And it’s quite viable to believe what he and his coach think the problem is and what it is not.

It’s really not. It’s far more likely that they aren’t disclosing an injury. Players do that every day.

It’s also right in line with the recovery schedule. It takes three years to recover fully from it.

 

[Habby4Life]

No player has ever lied about their health.

Ever.

Every player discloses everything to everyone, especially the press.

No, really….

Dude Cole could come and have coffee with you and tell you he is fine straight to your face and you would still think you’re right.

It’s complete twilight zone material.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Dude Cole could come and have coffee with you and tell you he is fine straight to your face and you would still think you’re right.

Correct.

 

[Ezpz]

I don't think cc is ready to eclipse his breakout goal year yet. He adjusted his game but his shot isn't what it was pre surgery. Sad that he may never be as good a goal scorer as he was before.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't think cc is ready to eclipse his breakout goal year yet. He adjusted his game but his shot isn't what it was pre surgery. Sad that he may never be as good a goal scorer as he was before.

Let us pray.

Doctors say it’s usually 100 percent within three years. So hopefully that’s what happens for him.

It sucks too because we missed out on a career year last season. He had a shot at being our first 50 goal guy since Richer.

 

[CHfan1]

Interesting looking through this thread and then looking at stats on the NHL app.

In the 2022-23 season Caufield had 36 high danger shots, shots (.782 per game). He scored 10 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 16 goals outside the high danger area on 122 shots (13.1 % shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

In the 2023-24 season Caufield had 67 high danger shots, shots (.817 per game). He scored 15 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 13 goals outside the high danger area on 247 shots (5.3% shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

So that tells me two things:

- Obviously if he has more high danger shots he’s going to score more goals. That’s something, like he said, he really needs to work on and continue to get better at. If he can average 1 high danger shot per game that’s probably good for another 3-4 goals.

- His shooting % did go down last year but it was really noticeable outside the high danger area. Can that improve this season? As a note I don’t know if that was because of his shoulder or other reasons.

Also to note his top shot speed was higher on 2023-24 at 93.31 mph (compared to 90.87 mph in 2022-23) but he had less shots over 80 mph in 2023-24 (39 total - .475 per game) on a per game basis compared to 2022-23 (30 total - .652 per game). Also in 2023-24 he had 162 shots (1.98 per game) over 70 mph compared to 129 shots (2.80 per game) over 70 mph in 2022-23.

 

[Habby4Life]

Interesting looking through this thread and then looking at stats on the NHL app.

In the 2022-23 season Caufield had 36 high danger shots, shots (.782 per game). He scored 10 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 16 goals outside the high danger area on 122 shots (13.1 % shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

In the 2023-24 season Caufield had 67 high danger shots, shots (.817 per game). He scored 15 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 13 goals outside the high danger area on 247 shots (5.3% shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

So that tells me two things:

- Obviously if he has more high danger shots he’s going to score more goals. That’s something, like he said, he really needs to work on and continue to get better at. If he can average 1 high danger shot per game that’s probably good for another 3-4 goals.

- His shooting % did go down last year but it was really noticeable outside the high danger area. Can that improve this season? As a note I don’t know if that was because of his shoulder or other reasons.

Also to note his top shot speed was higher on 2023-24 at 93.31 mph (compared to 90.87 mph in 2022-23) but he had less shots over 80 mph in 2023-24 (39 total - .475 per game) on a per game basis compared to 2022-23 (30 total - .652 per game). Also in 2023-24 he had 162 shots (1.98 per game) over 70 mph compared to 129 shots (2.80 per game) over 70 mph in 2022-23.

CC calls it the “paint”, maybe he knows what he is talking about

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Interesting looking through this thread and then looking at stats on the NHL app.

In the 2022-23 season Caufield had 36 high danger shots, shots (.782 per game). He scored 10 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 16 goals outside the high danger area on 122 shots (13.1 % shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

In the 2023-24 season Caufield had 67 high danger shots, shots (.817 per game). He scored 15 goals in the high danger area (close to the net). He scored 13 goals outside the high danger area on 247 shots (5.3% shooting percentage outside the high danger area).

So that tells me two things:

- Obviously if he has more high danger shots he’s going to score more goals. That’s something, like he said, he really needs to work on and continue to get better at. If he can average 1 high danger shot per game that’s probably good for another 3-4 goals.

- His shooting % did go down last year but it was really noticeable outside the high danger area. Can that improve this season? As a note I don’t know if that was because of his shoulder or other reasons.

Also to note his top shot speed was higher on 2023-24 at 93.31 mph (compared to 90.87 mph in 2022-23) but he had less shots over 80 mph in 2023-24 (39 total - .475 per game) on a per game basis compared to 2022-23 (30 total - .652 per game). Also in 2023-24 he had 162 shots (1.98 per game) over 70 mph compared to 129 shots (2.80 per game) over 70 mph in 2022-23.

Right.

As I said, his shot percentage from mid ice cratered. Down by two thirds less - that’s crazy bad. We saw that earlier in the thread.

Thank you as well for showing the shot velocity. Hadn’t seen that but it’s interesting that he lost some zip off that shot. That’s what I suspected but hadn’t seen any numbers on it.

From mid ice to go from 13 to 5 is a massive drop. That’s what really killed him. And if his shot lost the velocity it certainly explains it. And the shoulder surgery explains the lack of zip.

Hopefully it’s a little better this year. The surgery he had has a high success rate but it takes a long time to get back to 100 percent. I just hope we see some improvement this year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

CC calls it the “paint”, maybe he knows what he is talking about

Being in the paint is great. Every player wants to get more shots from in there.

But that wasn’t the problem. As I told you, the problem was that he couldn’t score from mid ice.

Compare the previous year at 13 percent vs this year at 5. If we use this year’s total shots we get:

247 x .13 = 32

247 x .5 = 12

The delta is 20 goals. That’s the difference between his seasons. In a normal year he’d have had 48 goals instead of 28. His shot was the issue.

 

[Redux91]

Whenever I watch highlights from his 2021 playoff production
And I see the guy out there right now

It's like seeing 2 entirely different players

Really hope he gets back to what he was,
Too much fluff right now, too much passing

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Whenever I watch highlights from his 2021 playoff production
And I see the guy out there right now

It's like seeing 2 entirely different players

Really hope he gets back to what he was,
Too much fluff right now, too much passing

315 last year. That’s a lot of shots. More than any player in 40 years. And that was really his first full complete season in the league.

Pucks just didn’t go in.

 

[Redux91]

315 last year. That’s a lot of shots. More than any player in 40 years. And that was really his first full complete season in the league.

Pucks just didn’t go in.

I'll believe 40g when I see it bud

Right now it's still total fantasy

 

[SlafySZN]

Whenever I watch highlights from his 2021 playoff production
And I see the guy out there right now

It's like seeing 2 entirely different players

Really hope he gets back to what he was,
Too much fluff right now, too much passing

Yeah he is searching to pass too much, that’s one thing. Seems like his mentality changed, maybe he wasn’t comfortable enough to take one timers, ect last season. Looked like it was better near the end of last season, though.

Could be that he’s not passed the puck in area where he can take a good shot so he’s passing back to open a lane.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'll believe 40g when I see it bud

Right now it's still total fantasy

Sadly, you’re right given the circumstances. But that’s not because of his play.

His best asset is his shot. That’s been compromised. It’d be like Paul Coffey getting an ankle injury, it hinders their best strength.

I think he’s good for 35 goals this year. After that, we can hope that he recovers. Unfortunately though, he may never be the same.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah he is searching to pass too much, that’s one thing. Seems like his mentality changed, maybe he wasn’t comfortable enough to take one timers, ect last season. Looked like it was better near the end of last season, though.

Could be that he’s not passed the puck in area where he can take a good shot so he’s passing back to open a lane.

He doesn’t trust his shot - and for good reason. He’s trying to adapt and have a more complete game. But he still put up 315 last year.

I’m hoping he keeps that up. If he doesn’t, he may just be a really good second liner in the long run. We’ll have to see on this.

 

[SlafySZN]

He doesn’t trust his shot - and for good reason. He’s trying to adapt and have a more complete game. But he still put up 315 last year.

I’m hoping he keeps that up. If he doesn’t, he may just be a really good second liner in the long run. We’ll have to see on this.

I’d be willing to see how he could fit with Dach and someone else. Need some players to get the puck to him and constantly find him in open space.

I liked how he tried to adapt last season and was unlucky with his shot percentage but i’d love for him to concentrate on what he was doing before, finding space, put himself in position and shoot.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I’d be willing to see how he could fit with Dach and someone else. Need some players to get the puck to him and constantly find him in open space.

I liked how he tried to adapt last season and was unlucky with his shot percentage but i’d love for him to concentrate on what he was doing before, finding space, put himself in position and shoot.

I hope he continues to rack up shots as well. I’m still hopeful that he can return to what he was. But it might take another year.