Cole Caufield: Is this the year?

[Lafleurs Guy]

Goal scorers like Caufield are streaky. We seen the 48 in 82 spread over 2 seasons and we seen last year with a good start and a good finish but a meh middle span.

I think it's multilayered. A combo of puck luck, injury, shot accuracy, and teams focusing on him more. At the end of the day he is a 30+ goal threat. How much more than that? I think that will vary season/season. His career average when we look back, will probably be around 35. Several seasons in the high 20's or early 30's with some high 30's and early 40 seasons.

We need Dach to create that 2nd line and a more potent PP. Caufield's time/space will improve and that's when he becomes dangerous. Teams have to focus on several guys vs just a few.

Not all scorers are streaky. Caufield has been pretty consistent over his entire junior and pro career. The only time he really had a tough time scoring was under DD. The moment he left, he went back to scoring.

Again, the other explanations don’t hold water. If he was being contained he wouldn’t have 315 shots. He wouldn’t have gotten in close as he did.

Teams weren’t able to contain him at all. He simply couldn’t score the way he normally does. His shooting percentage from the slot (which should be bread and butter) dropped by around 75 percent.

The year after surgery? Can’t be coincidence. On a normal season, he’d have scored around 50 last year.

 

[Deebs]

He'll end up scoring between 30-40 goals this year if he remains healthy and I expect that for a good chunk of his career.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not all scorers are streaky. Caufield has been pretty consistent over his entire junior and pro career. The only time he really had a tough time scoring was under DD. The moment he left, he went back to scoring.

Again, the other explanations don’t hold water. If he was being contained he wouldn’t have 315 shots. He wouldn’t have gotten in close as he did.

Teams weren’t able to contain him at all. He simply couldn’t score the way he normally does. His shooting percentage from the slot (which should be bread and butter) dropped by around 75 percent.

The year after surgery? Can’t be coincidence. On a normal season, he’d have scored around 50 last year.

I think Caufield is in the 2nd tier of goal scorers. I can see more good/bad streaks with him vs the top tier guys.

I'll be impressed if he gets to 50 goals. I have him in the 30-40 range when we look back later on. Those types are usually streaky. The middle span of last year is possibly the worse we will see.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think Caufield is in the 2nd tier of goal scorers. I can see more good/bad streaks with him vs the top tier guys.

He might be a tier two going forward. But that’s due to injury.

Scoring at the rate he did as young as he was - he had elite talent. Hopefully it comes back.

I'll be impressed if he gets to 50 goals. I have him in the 30-40 range when we look back later on. Those types are usually streaky.

Based on what I’ve read, people with this surgery usually return to normal after three years. So this season, I’d say 35 with - hopefully- upside.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He might be a tier two going forward. But that’s due to injury.

Scoring at the rate he did as young as he was - he had elite talent. Hopefully it comes back.

Based on what I’ve read, people with this surgery usually return to normal after three years. So this season, I’d say 35 with - hopefully- upside.

I hope you are right and I won't bet against it. I just prefer to take the conservative approach. Same approach I am taking with Hutson.

 

[Naslundforever]

With Laine Slaf and soon Crosby taking the heat off him he’s the next 60 goal scorer.

Pretty easy to stifle a team with only one line.

 

[Rapala]

Does this thread stay up until it is?
It's reminding me too much of the "Will Gallagher..." thread.
I much prefer Cole Caufield this is the year.

Ideally for all it would be alongside Kirby Dach giving us a two headed attack with Slaf and Suzuki.

 

[vokiel]

Reset the poll, and I'm still picking the same option.

 

[Tyson]

30+

 

[Rapala]

30+

I'd like to see him to hit 30 to begin with.
Not many people saw him breaking 40 in this league which is why he ended up a Hab in the first place.
If he plays like he did down the stretch I think he can do 30 plus.
I have to admit there is always that doubt lingering in the back of my mind that he can stay healthy enough for 40 plus.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'd like to see him to hit 30 to begin with.
Not many people saw him breaking 40 in this league which is why he ended up a Hab in the first place.
If he plays like he did down the stretch I think he can do 30 plus.
I have to admit there is always that doubt lingering in the back of my mind that he can stay healthy enough for 40 plus.

He's proven he can do close to 50. And did so very young.

Unfortunately, that fact is really diminished by the injury that limited him to below 30 this season. And I don't know what he's going to do next year. I think 30-35 is a pretty safe bet but it's really tough to say. Dropping from 20 percent to 5 in the slot is absolutely brutal. And he had a great season stat wise... 300+ shots, in close, all good. It was ideal conditions to score and he still didn't even get to 30.

All we can do is hope for the best. If the doctors are right on the history, maybe he's back to normal in 25-26. We have to hope so because we can use all the goals we can get going forward.

 

[Rapala]

He's proven he can do close to 50. And did so very young.

Unfortunately, that fact is really diminished by the injury that limited him to below 30 this season. And I don't know what he's going to do next year. I think 30-35 is a pretty safe bet but it's really tough to say. Dropping from 20 percent to 5 in the slot is absolutely brutal. And he had a great season stat wise... 300+ shots, in close, all good. It was ideal conditions to score and he still didn't even get to 30.

All we can do is hope for the best. If the doctors are right on the history, maybe he's back to normal in 25-26. We have to hope so because we can use all the goals we can get going forward.

I don't buy stats cobbled over two seasons. There is no accounting for the grind 82 games actually brings.
So no don't bring 50 into the conversation 30 plus would be a good season. This guy isn't a fifty goal scorer IMO.

 

[General Fanager]

I will go with 30+ this year. As teams have to focus more and more on Slaf that will leave room for CC to get open looks.....

 

[Rapala]

I will go with 30+ this year. As teams have to focus more and more on Slaf that will leave room for CC to get open looks.....

His shot accuracy was horrendous last season. I actually had him pegged as being at the same level Suzuki is but it wasn't even close last season.
We saw it in fits and starts it could be because he couldn't work on it as much as he normally would. Shooting prowess has to be maintained by reps IMO.

 

[HabsCode]

I fed chat GPT Cole Caufield stats such age age, position, shots, shots accuracy, TOI, stats, team performance, etc. and here is what it came out with:

Based on the provided stats and considering the player's progression over the past four seasons, here's an analysis to predict how many goals he might score in the upcoming season:

1. Goal-scoring trend: The player has shown steady improvement in goal-scoring over his NHL career:
   • Season 1: 4 goals in 10 games (0.4 goals per game)
   • Season 2: 20 goals in 67 games (0.30 goals per game)
   • Season 3: 26 goals in 46 games (0.57 goals per game)
   • Season 4: 28 goals in 82 games (0.34 goals per game)
     There's a notable increase in goals per game in Season 3, which then stabilized in Season 4 despite a lower shooting percentage.
2. Shots on goal and shooting accuracy: The player's number of shots on goal has increased consistently:
   • Season 1: 30 shots in 10 games (3 shots per game)
   • Season 2: 188 shots in 67 games (2.81 shots per game)
   • Season 3: 158 shots in 46 games (3.43 shots per game)
   • Season 4: 314 shots in 82 games (3.83 shots per game)
     However, there's been variability in shooting accuracy:
   • Season 1: 13.3%
   • Season 2: 12.2%
   • Season 3: 16.5%
   • Season 4: 8.9%
     Season 3 had a notably higher shooting percentage, suggesting increased efficiency.
3. Time on ice and powerplay time: The player's time on ice has been consistent around 18 minutes per game, with a slight increase to 19:25 in the last season. Powerplay time has also increased gradually, indicating growing importance in offensive situations.
4. Team performance: The team's overall performance has been below average, which may limit overall scoring opportunities compared to players on more successful teams.

Considering these factors, here's a prediction for the upcoming season:

Given the player's trajectory, his role as a top-line forward, and assuming similar performance and opportunities, a reasonable prediction would be around 25-30 goals for the upcoming season. This range takes into account his past performance, shooting trends, increased ice time, and potential for continued development as a young forward.

Of course, external factors like injuries, changes in team dynamics, or personal development could also influence this prediction. However, based on the available data, 25-30 goals seems like a plausible range for this player's goal-scoring output in the next NHL season.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I fed chat GPT Cole Caufield stats such age age, position, shots, shots accuracy, TOI, stats, team performance, etc. and here is what it came out with:

Based on the provided stats and considering the player's progression over the past four seasons, here's an analysis to predict how many goals he might score in the upcoming season:

1. Goal-scoring trend: The player has shown steady improvement in goal-scoring over his NHL career:
   • Season 1: 4 goals in 10 games (0.4 goals per game)
   • Season 2: 20 goals in 67 games (0.30 goals per game)
   • Season 3: 26 goals in 46 games (0.57 goals per game)
   • Season 4: 28 goals in 82 games (0.34 goals per game)
     There's a notable increase in goals per game in Season 3, which then stabilized in Season 4 despite a lower shooting percentage.
2. Shots on goal and shooting accuracy: The player's number of shots on goal has increased consistently:
   • Season 1: 30 shots in 10 games (3 shots per game)
   • Season 2: 188 shots in 67 games (2.81 shots per game)
   • Season 3: 158 shots in 46 games (3.43 shots per game)
   • Season 4: 314 shots in 82 games (3.83 shots per game)
     However, there's been variability in shooting accuracy:
   • Season 1: 13.3%
   • Season 2: 12.2%
   • Season 3: 16.5%
   • Season 4: 8.9%
     Season 3 had a notably higher shooting percentage, suggesting increased efficiency.
3. Time on ice and powerplay time: The player's time on ice has been consistent around 18 minutes per game, with a slight increase to 19:25 in the last season. Powerplay time has also increased gradually, indicating growing importance in offensive situations.
4. Team performance: The team's overall performance has been below average, which may limit overall scoring opportunities compared to players on more successful teams.

Considering these factors, here's a prediction for the upcoming season:

Given the player's trajectory, his role as a top-line forward, and assuming similar performance and opportunities, a reasonable prediction would be around 25-30 goals for the upcoming season. This range takes into account his past performance, shooting trends, increased ice time, and potential for continued development as a young forward.

Of course, external factors like injuries, changes in team dynamics, or personal development could also influence this prediction. However, based on the available data, 25-30 goals seems like a plausible range for this player's goal-scoring output in the next NHL season.

I think he scores 64 goals next season.

 

[HabsCode]

I think he scores 64 goals next season.

Seems reasonable.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't buy stats cobbled over two seasons.

He had 1.5 seasons coming into last year. How else do you calculate it? 48 in 82 coming into last year. Half from his rookie year. All coming with the same coach. Incredible. And he did exactly what he was supposed to. 300 plus shots, coming from in close. Should’ve been a 50 goal year.

It’s moot now anyways. The ‘past performance’ works both ways. We can’t ignore the horrible shot percentage after surgery. Now we have to take a more skeptical view. So I think around 30 is a safe bet. Hopefully we see some improvement. If he hits 40 that’d be great.

Still massively disappointed though. We finally had a guy who seemed like a blue chip to contend for some Richards and we run into injuries at 22 years old. It sucks.

 

[Rapala]

He had 1.5 seasons coming into last year. How else do you calculate it? 48 in 82 coming into last year. Half from his rookie year. All coming with the same coach. Incredible. And he did exactly what he was supposed to. 300 plus shots, coming from in close. Should’ve been a 50 goal year.

It’s moot now anyways. The ‘past performance’ works both ways. We can’t ignore the horrible shot percentage after surgery. Now we have to take a more skeptical view. So I think around 30 is a safe bet. Hopefully we see some improvement. If he hits 40 that’d be great.

Still massively disappointed though. We finally had a guy who seemed like a blue chip to contend for some Richards and we run into injuries at 22 years old. It sucks.

All I'm saying is 82 games straight is not the same as some games here and some games there.
It never will be and seasonal stats are never measured that way when all is said and done.
Cole Caufield is a 31 goal scorer by average and will remain so until he is not.
Percentages fluctuate as much as shooting percentages fluctuate for all players.
You are assuming that the one stretch Caufield had when he was super hot is the norm I'm assuming it's actually the outlier.
Chances are its somewhere in between which isn't 50 goals no matter how you look at it.

There is a reason it's called cherry picking because it is cherry picking.
If it's not his shoulder or Dominic Ducharme it could very well be something else that hinders him.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Seems reasonable.

I don't think Chat GPT took into account his shoulder injury and the slump under Dominic Ducharme on season 2.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

All I'm saying is 82 games straight is not the same as some games here and some games there.
It never will be and seasonal stats are never measured that way when all is said and done.
Cole Caufield is a 31 goal scorer by average and will remain so until he is not.
Percentages fluctuate as much as shooting percentages fluctuate for all players.
You are assuming that the one stretch Caufield had when he was super hot is the norm I'm assuming it's actually the outlier.
Chances are its somewhere in between which isn't 50 goals no matter how you look at it.

There is a reason it's called cherry picking because it is cherry picking.
If it's not his shoulder or Dominic Ducharme it could very well be something else that hinders him.

It’s cherry picking if the guys been in the league for five years and you’re only looking at parts of a season to suit a narrative. That’s not the case here.

He had like 40 games under DD and wasn’t used properly. Did nothing. Then MSL came in. For the next 82 games he scored 48 goals before getting hurt.

The guy had only played a season and a half. And under MSL he absolutely destroyed it. And he he came into the league with the minor league record. His scoring prowess was not a surprise.

Past performance is how you project future success. That’s why I and most others are re- evaluating him now. Great year but he couldn’t finish. That’s a concern.

 

[Rapala]

It’s cherry picking if the guys been in the league for five years and you’re only looking at parts of a season to suit a narrative. That’s not the case here.

He had like 40 games under DD and wasn’t used properly. Did nothing. Then MSL came in. For the next 82 games he scored 48 goals before getting hurt.

The guy had only played a season and a half. And under MSL he absolutely destroyed it. And he he came into the league with the minor league record. His scoring prowess was not a surprise.

Past performance is how you project future success. That’s why I and most others are re- evaluating him now. Great year but he couldn’t finish. That’s a concern.

y'Okay

Good luck selling me on that.
.57 in 46 games vs .33 in 159 games.
Is definitely cherry picking regardless of what the reasons are.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

y'Okay

Good luck selling me on that.
.57 in 46 games vs .33 in 159 games.
Is definitely cherry picking regardless of what the reasons are.

“Sell you” on what?

Even if we included all of DDs games he had 53 in 123 coming into this season. That’s still a 35 over 82 average.

I’m not sure why you’re so hung up on this. We use an 82 game average so that it’s easier to compare players that’s it. In this case by fluke it worked out to 82 under MSL so it was easier to show.

With his history there was every reason to believe he’d be a 40-50 goal guy. And he proved it with his underlying numbers this year.

Unfortunately the surgery has messed him up. And that’s why we now revise downwards. Around 30 is a safe prediction for next year. Hopefully he recovers better and we see more but we shouldn’t project based on hope.

If I were here trying to tell you that he was going to score 50 next year it would be wishcasting. Ignoring the most recent data. Then I’d understand you saying I was trying to “sell you” on something. But that’s not the case. I think 30’s realistic next year. Anything else is hopeful.

 

[GrandBison]

I like Cole-Slaf duo. I think he'll get more open opportunities now that teams will cover Slaf more.

 

[StCaufield]

His playmaking development has made the first line more dynamic and less predictable. It’s not all about goals with him