Cole Caufield: Is this the year?

[WeThreeKings]

This is an excellent post. It proves that my old eyes haven't been playing tricks on me. He isn't getting the quality of chances that he used to get and his goal totals reflect it. His assist totals are up because he is being forced to look for the pass option now, the space isn't there. It isn't his shoulder, he has played every game, and if there were concerns he would have missed playing time.

Just because he doesn't need games off doesn't mean it doesn't take time for someone to come back to full strength. Matthews had 60 plus, had off-season surgery, his goal totals dipped massively and now they are back up to 60 plus.. even the best shooter in the world needed a year to get back to their full ability

 

[Tabarouette]

This is an excellent post. It proves that my old eyes haven't been playing tricks on me. He isn't getting the quality of chances that he used to get and his goal totals reflect it. His assist totals are up because he is being forced to look for the pass option now, the space isn't there. It isn't his shoulder, he has played every game, and if there were concerns he would have missed playing time.

as I said tho, his expected numbers are still surprisingly high considering all that so it's encouraging

i'm really sad about his production this year, I think it's really disappointing and it's just hurting me in the habs fan part of my brain where we're never allowed to have anything nice, but those numbers give me *some* amount of hopes that it's just temporary if he can just adjust some things

 

[OldCraig71]

Just because he doesn't need games off doesn't mean it doesn't take time for someone to come back to full strength. Matthews had 60 plus, had off-season surgery, his goal totals dipped massively and now they are back up to 60 plus.. even the best shooter in the world needed a year to get back to their full ability

I don't believe that the surgery is the reason for the dip in production. Teams have adjusted to him and unlike Matthews, he doesn't have the size or reach advantage working for him. Even on the PP we are seeing teams take away his shot but he does co-share the league lead for OT goals with 3, there is time and space available to him there and he can capitalize.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This is an excellent post. It proves that my old eyes haven't been playing tricks on me. He isn't getting the quality of chances that he used to get and his goal totals reflect it. His assist totals are up because he is being forced to look for the pass option now, the space isn't there. It isn't his shoulder, he has played every game, and if there were concerns he would have missed playing time.

Those charts show the opposite. The ratios are the same and the volumes are up.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't believe that the surgery is the reason for the dip in production. Teams have adjusted to him and unlike Matthews, he doesn't have the size or reach advantage working for him. Even on the PP we are seeing teams take away his shot but he does co-share the league lead for OT goals with 3, there is time and space available to him there and he can capitalize.

Well there's a long history of players dipping in production after upper body surgery and coming back the following year and retaining their ability pre-injury.

I think this is more Habs doomer thinking than anything.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't believe that the surgery is the reason for the dip in production. Teams have adjusted to him and unlike Matthews, he doesn't have the size or reach advantage working for him. Even on the PP we are seeing teams take away his shot but he does co-share the league lead for OT goals with 3, there is time and space available to him there and he can capitalize.

If they’d adjusted to him we wouldn’t see the numbers we do. The shots are there. High quality chances are there… the puck simply hasn’t gone in.

And again, even with a bad percentage he should have way more goals than he has. 7.5 just doesn’t make any sense.

 

[OldCraig71]

Those charts show the opposite. The ratios are the same and the volumes are up.

Low danger shot attempts at 258.

 

[Tabarouette]

Well there's a long history of players dipping in production after upper body surgery and coming back the following year and retaining their ability pre-injury.

I think this is more Habs doomer thinking than anything.

I've literally pointed out that the signs are pretty encouraging otherwise so there's good hope there

Pointing out what isn't working out is part of a discussion, just block me if you're so unhappy about criticism of your darlings

 

[OldCraig71]

Well there's a long history of players dipping in production after upper body surgery and coming back the following year and retaining their ability pre-injury.

I think this is more Habs doomer thinking than anything.

Okay cool. I won't post in this thread again and I will keep my opinion about Caufield to myself. Have a great day.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Low danger shot attempts at 258.

The ratios are the same. Volumes are up.

And again, even if what you were saying was true there’s just no way to predict 7.5. Even with bad shots you’d think he’d be around like 10…

 

[OldCraig71]

The ratios are the same. Volumes are up.

And again, even if what you were saying was true there’s just no way to predict 7.5. Even with bad shots you’d think he’d be around like 10…

See my reply above.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I've literally pointed out that the signs are pretty encouraging otherwise so there's good hope there

Pointing out what isn't working out is part of a discussion, just block me if you're so unhappy about criticism of your darlings

Criticisms are fine. After all he’s sitting with 19 goals and on a 12 game streak.

But your high quality va low quality ratios are the same year over year. I don’t know why you think this justifies his shooting percentage falling by more than half.

 

[Tabarouette]

The ratios are the same. Volumes are up.

And again, even if what you were saying was true there’s just no way to predict 7.5. Even with bad shots you’d think he’d be around like 10…

well, idk, it really depends because "low danger" casts a weirdly wide net

we've seen him take multiple impossible angle shots out of either frustration or just desperation (i.e those weird shots he kept trying from the corner basically behind the net) and those are counted the same as like, a little shitty wrister that never goes in for most of the NHL

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

See my reply above.

You posted the low danger shots - now look at its vs high danger. High danger is up too. Now compare it to last year. It’s about the same ratio.

So why was he over 16 percent last year vs 7.5 this year? It’s should be about the same. Nothing’s changed except volume. And volume should give you MORE goals not less. With the same percentage as last year it would be a 51 goal season.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

well, idk, it really depends because "low danger" casts a weirdly wide net

we've seen him take multiple impossible angle shots out of either frustration or just desperation (i.e those weird shots he kept trying from the corner basically behind the net) and those are counted the same as like, a little shitty wrister that never goes in for most of the NHL

The numbers don’t line up with what you’re saying. The guy gets a couple of good chances every night.

And again - 315 shots on a bad year should be like 35 goals. It could easily be 50+.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I've literally pointed out that the signs are pretty encouraging otherwise so there's good hope there

Pointing out what isn't working out is part of a discussion, just block me if you're so unhappy about criticism of your darlings

I wasn't even quoting you

 

[Tabarouette]

The numbers don’t line up with what you’re saying. The guy gets a couple of good chances every night.

And again - 315 shots on a bad year should be like 35 goals. It could easily be 50+.

What are those good chances? All the data collected and compared across all skaters is wrong? I never buy that argument

I'll trust the numbers on that as much as i'll trust the numbers saying he should be scoring more than he is for whatever reason so it should fix itself eventually, at least partially. I'm just trying to figure out why his shot% is down rather than just point at it and say well that's down so we're good, because it's an interesting thing to look at

Could be as simple as "goalies know he shoots top right every single time so they stop the puck more now" or as complex as 14 different factors all playing together, including his injury

 

[Tabarouette]

another fun one is how much he was in the paint last year

That penis shaped heatzone is prime scoring for any player with a good shot

compared to this year

so you can also consider that those high danger shots might not the same as before

Is it not going in the slot because he's protecting his shoulder? did the league adjust and isn't letting him in anymore?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

What are those good chances? All the data collected and compared across all skaters is wrong? I never buy that argument

I'll trust the numbers on that as much as i'll trust the numbers saying he should be scoring more than he is for whatever reason so it should fix itself eventually, at least partially. I'm just trying to figure out why his shot% is down rather than just point at it and say well that's down so we're good, because it's an interesting thing to look at

Could be as simple as "goalies know he shoots top right every single time so they stop the puck more now" or as complex as 14 different factors all playing together, including his injury

You showed his low danger chances are up. But his high danger chances are up just as much (relative to low danger.) Nothing’s really changed in that front. I’d have expected the percentage to about the same.

Now… there are always variances from year to year. It wouldn’t be surprising to see it drop a few points - say to 12 or 13 percent. But even there he’d get around 40 goals.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

another fun one is how much he was in the paint last year

That penis shaped heatzone is prime scoring for any player with a good shot

View attachment 836549

compared to this year

View attachment 836550

so you can also consider that those high danger shots might not the same as before

Is it not going in the slot because he's protecting his shoulder? did the league adjust and isn't letting him in anymore?

If I read that correctly, he’s right where he should be and shooting a lot from in close. Seems to be in the paint just as much but only one one side. Maybe that’s a factor.

Again though… it might explain a drop - but not by more than half. It doesn’t explain things being that bad.

To put it in perspective, Gionta’s worst year with us was 9.7… And that’s pretty bad. Even with that CC would finish with 31 goals.

As it is now he’s on pace for 24 goals. On 315 shots? That’s insanely bad.

 

[Tabarouette]

Please don't bring Gionta's name into this i'm trying to forget that era

 

[Tabarouette]

The only other complaint I have is how much he still tries to carry the puck and get fancy with it, it creates a lot of turnovers and/or dead plays. It's not as bad as it was early in the season but it's still too much for me, I kinda expect pure shooters like him to disappear on the ice and reappear to score 2 goals

getting fancy and losing the puck is Mathesons' gimmick we don't more of those

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I’d agree if his shots were taking a dip. But they aren’t. He’s still generating tons of them and with those totals you’d expect him to be a 35 goal guy at least.

His game has developed but not at the sacrifice of shots. And as per the chart above the high danger ratio is the same and his volume is up. If anything he should have MORE goals.

Fair enough. But it could also be just that the timing is off that fraction of a second or whatever with his release or getting set or whatever. Or it’s bad luck or a bit of both.

I’m not certain myself except that I highly doubt that his elite goal scoring that he’s displayed so explicitly his entire career is just going to vanish from here on out. Sure it could but not without some major interference

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Fair enough. But it could also be just that the timing is off that fraction of a second or whatever with his release or getting set or whatever. Or it’s bad luck or a bit of both.

I’m not certain myself except that I highly doubt that his elite goal scoring that he’s displayed so explicitly his entire career is just going to vanish from here on out. Sure it could but not without some major interference

Yep. An injury could be a factor, puck luck, maybe the season’s in his head…

To me it seemed like he had got things back on track and then maybe got hurt missing those practices. That might be a factor in his current slump.

Hopefully we never see this again and next year he goes back to normal.

 

[SlafySZN]

The only other complaint I have is how much he still tries to carry the puck and get fancy with it, it creates a lot of turnovers and/or dead plays. It's not as bad as it was early in the season but it's still too much for me, I kinda expect pure shooters like him to disappear on the ice and reappear to score 2 goals

getting fancy and losing the puck is Mathesons' gimmick we don't more of those

That's why they should let him play his game, instead of making him forecheck and be near the boards, it prevents him on playing his usual game of finding the open space and jump in it to shoot.