Cole Caufield breaking out

[Rants Mulliniks]

Presumably what it feels like to cheer for a team that has one playoff series win in 21 seasons.

Been following through parts of 6 different decades. Having gone through Ballard, talking to me about the past 21 years isn't nearly the burn you might think. The past 8 specifically have been extremely enjoyable, despite some disappointment.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Been following through parts of 6 different decades. Having gone through Ballard, talking to me about the past 21 years isn't nearly the burn you might think. The past 8 specifically have been extremely enjoyable, despite some disappointment.

Nothing wrong with having an entertaining team with great players that wins more than it loses over the course of an 82 game season

Was just returning some fire is all

 

[Ianturnedbull]

18G in his last 21GP (as of Nov 3) dating back to last year.....Thats one hell of a streak. Looks like he could be a Rocket contender the way hes shooting the puck, though, probably not getting 50 yet. Its gonna be a long season in Montreal, but at least a few bright spots to follow.

314 SOG last season.... when you shoot lots, you usually score lots. There were 10 players that had 290+ SOG last season, 8 of them scored 40+ goals (B.Tkachuk 37, Caufield 28).

I believe Coleslaw is still a popular side dish with fish'n'chips.

As for Cauliflower...only 3 out of 10 Canadiens get enough vegetables in their diet.

 

[TBF1972]

4 games without a score. no goal or assist and he only managed 7 shots.

caufield's calendar year stats:

	games played	goals	assists	points	shots
jan 24	13	7	6	13	48
feb 24	11	2	6	8	49
mar 24	13	1	7	8	47
apr 24	9	8	2	10	41
oct 24	11	10	1	11	32
nov 24	4	0	0	0	7
tot 24	61	28	22	50	224

i know i will be spoted by the hater watch. but i was asked by a poster multiple times, how many games more caufield has to score, that i will declare him an elite goal scorer. looking at the sample size above from the calendar year 24, i would conclude that it takes more than a full season. i would suggest two full seasons or around 150 games. any player can get hot and cold and it takes quite a long time for the counting stats to regress to the mean.

obviously we can discuss the noize. but posters who don't assume the noize to be the signal aren't automatically haters.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Elite shooter, but also a liability due to lack of size. Most other players can easily push Caufield away with one arm.

 

[CanadienShark]

That’s great that he’s breaking out and looking good. Just not a fan Of calling it a “streak” that ends in one season and begin in the next. Like the recent jets thread.

Agreed. It's a nice trend, but not a streak.

 

[Koivu11]

 

[JianYang]

Should have had a hat trick today.... he lost his balance but otherwise had a clear lane for an empty netter

 

[Golden_Jet]

Cy Young

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

4 games without a score. no goal or assist and he only managed 7 shots.

caufield's calendar year stats:

	games played	goals	assists	points	shots
jan 24	13	7	6	13	48
feb 24	11	2	6	8	49
mar 24	13	1	7	8	47
apr 24	9	8	2	10	41
oct 24	11	10	1	11	32
nov 24	4	0	0	0	7
tot 24	61	28	22	50	224

i know i will be spoted by the hater watch. but i was asked by a poster multiple times, how many games more caufield has to score, that i will declare him an elite goal scorer. looking at the sample size above from the calendar year 24, i would conclude that it takes more than a full season. i would suggest two full seasons or around 150 games. any player can get hot and cold and it takes quite a long time for the counting stats to regress to the mean.

obviously we can discuss the noize. but posters who don't assume the noize to be the signal aren't automatically haters.

Caufield's history can be broken out this way:

Year One
Under Dominik Ducharme: 1 goal in 30 games
Under Martin St Louis: 22 goals in 37 games

Year Two
26 in 46 games, interrupted by houlder injury

Year Three
28 in 82

Current year:
12 goals in 16 games (currently leads the NHL)


Once MSL took over he was 48 goals in 82 across two seasons. Then gets injured. Last year his shots from mid ice were pathetic. Managed like 6 goals in over 200 shots. Caught fire at the end of the year as his shot seemed to return.

Still a very young player with a small sample size. But he's shown at the very least an ability to be a premier goalscorer in the NHL. I think the key for him is to remain healthy. When healthy under decent coaching, he's crushed it.

That all being said, he isn't playing particularly well right now. The whole team is in the basement in terms of play and his analytics aren't anywhere near where they normally are. Two shots today and he got two goals. It's almost the flipside of last year where he played really well but wasn't rewarded. Now he's got his shot back and is getting puck luck.

If he can pick up his play back to his usual level, he's got a real shot at 50 goals this year. But he's not going to do it unless he's able to start playing a little better. The shot can mitigate a lack of chances somewhat but the puck luck will run out sooner or later.

 

[HabsCode]

Caufield's history can be broken out this way:

Year One
Under Dominik Ducharme: 1 goal in 30 games
Under Martin St Louis: 22 goals in 37 games

Year Two
26 in 46 games, interrupted by houlder injury

Year Three
28 in 82

Current year:
12 goals in 16 games (currently leads the NHL)


Once MSL took over he was 48 goals in 82 across two seasons. Then gets injured. Last year his shots from mid ice were pathetic. Managed like 6 goals in over 200 shots. Caught fire at the end of the year as his shot seemed to return.

Still a very young player with a small sample size. But he's shown at the very least an ability to be a premier goalscorer in the NHL. I think the key for him is to remain healthy. When healthy under decent coaching, he's crushed it.

That all being said, he isn't playing particularly well right now. The whole team is in the basement in terms of play and his analytics aren't anywhere near where they normally are. Two shots today and he got two goals. It's almost the flipside of last year where he played really well but wasn't rewarded. Now he's got his shot back and is getting puck luck.

If he can pick up his play back to his usual level, he's got a real shot at 50 goals this year. But he's not going to do it unless he's able to start playing a little better. The shot can mitigate a lack of chances somewhat but the puck luck will run out sooner or later.

Crazy to think an elite goal scorer like him had only 1 goal in 30 games at a point. Almost surreal.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Crazy to think an elite goal scorer like him had only 1 game in 30 games at a point. Almost surreal.

The Canadiens held him out in the playoffs when he first came up.... I mean those clowns didn't know what they were doing.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Elite shooter, but also a liability due to lack of size. Most other players can easily push Caufield away with one arm.

I wouldn't call him a liability. Lots of fight in that little dog. I'd much rather a small player that fights for the puck rather than a big guy who doesn't.

Size is a limitation for sure and his other big weakness is that he loses pucks too much. That's something he needs to improve on. But he's really good at stealing pucks and disrupting plays defensively. He's not afraid to go into scrums and fight for the puck. He'll never be Guy Carbonneau but he's not Pierre Turgeon defensively either.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Should have had a hat trick today.... he lost his balance but otherwise had a clear lane for an empty netter

That was Suzuki.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Caufield's history can be broken out this way:

Year One
Under Dominik Ducharme: 1 goal in 30 games
Under Martin St Louis: 22 goals in 37 games

Year Two
26 in 46 games, interrupted by houlder injury

Year Three
28 in 82

Current year:
12 goals in 16 games (currently leads the NHL)


Once MSL took over he was 48 goals in 82 across two seasons. Then gets injured. Last year his shots from mid ice were pathetic. Managed like 6 goals in over 200 shots. Caught fire at the end of the year as his shot seemed to return.

Still a very young player with a small sample size. But he's shown at the very least an ability to be a premier goalscorer in the NHL. I think the key for him is to remain healthy. When healthy under decent coaching, he's crushed it.

That all being said, he isn't playing particularly well right now. The whole team is in the basement in terms of play and his analytics aren't anywhere near where they normally are. Two shots today and he got two goals. It's almost the flipside of last year where he played really well but wasn't rewarded. Now he's got his shot back and is getting puck luck.

If he can pick up his play back to his usual level, he's got a real shot at 50 goals this year. But he's not going to do it unless he's able to start playing a little better. The shot can mitigate a lack of chances somewhat but the puck luck will run out sooner or later.

You should have mentioned the shoulder injury recovery was projected to be at least a year

 

[JianYang]

That was Suzuki.

Hmm, i must have got my wires crossed. He was going for the hat trick too.

 

[Frank Drebin]

4 games without a score. no goal or assist and he only managed 7 shots.

caufield's calendar year stats:

	games played	goals	assists	points	shots
jan 24	13	7	6	13	48
feb 24	11	2	6	8	49
mar 24	13	1	7	8	47
apr 24	9	8	2	10	41
oct 24	11	10	1	11	32
nov 24	4	0	0	0	7
tot 24	61	28	22	50	224

i know i will be spoted by the hater watch. but i was asked by a poster multiple times, how many games more caufield has to score, that i will declare him an elite goal scorer. looking at the sample size above from the calendar year 24, i would conclude that it takes more than a full season. i would suggest two full seasons or around 150 games. any player can get hot and cold and it takes quite a long time for the counting stats to regress to the mean.

obviously we can discuss the noize. but posters who don't assume the noize to be the signal aren't automatically haters.

many thanks

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Hmm, i must have got my wires crossed. He was going for the hat trick too.

I think both tripped on different plays.

 

[Bouboumaster]

He has one of the most potent wrist shot in the league

 

[MNRube]

Arguably the best RH finisher in the game. Bedard might pass him by in time and Ovechkin was better in his day, but Caufield is the guy right now.

Very curious to see if Guerin will find a spot for him on USA

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Arguably the best RH finisher in the game. Bedard might pass him by in time and Ovechkin was better in his day, but Caufield is the guy right now.

Very curious to see if Guerin will find a spot for him on USA

Guerin absolutely should find a spot for him. He's never played on a strong team. Can't imagine how good he'd be with a bunch of superstars. They could reunite him with Hughes too...

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Man, you're a hoot. You make my arguments for me. If he paced 286 shots in 46 games and had 314 in 82 games, do you really think the present 9 game sample is more defining?

Whatever you said doesn't change the fact you framed it as if his shot percentage would normalize, but not his shot count. You ended by saying "He's not sniffing the rocket unless he starts putting the puck on net more." Which clearly shows the bias, because you're fully expecting the shot percentage to go down, but not the shot count to go up. You framed this as if Caufield is 100% guaranteed to have a lower shot percentage, but oh oh oh, boy you'll need to shoot more. No shit sherlock. Just by the same logic that his percentage will go down, his shot count will also go up.

As for the 18%, I used that because he could very much normalize higher than 16.5%, which is a number he had in his sophomore season. He's still evolving as a player. He could very well end the season at 20% for all we know.

well since this post his shots per game rate has actually dropped from 2.88 SPG to 2.35 SPG... Still waiting for his shot count to normalize and go up...
Predictably his S% has started to come down though.